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Crude Oil16-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Typhoon Bebinca made landfall
early Monday in China’s financial hub of
Shanghai, bringing strong winds and torrential
areas to the region.
The storm made landfall at around 07:30 local
time (11:30 GMT) on Monday in the coastal area
of Lingang New City in Shanghai’s Pudong
region, the China Meteorological Administration
said.
The typhoon was packing maximum winds of around
151 kilometers/hour near its center.
Following its landfall, Bebinca is expected to
lose strength and become a tropical storm as it
moves northwestward across southern Jiangsu
province on Monday.
It will further weaken into a tropical
depression and eventually dissipate as it
passes over Anhui province by the afternoon of
17 September.
Bebinca is the strongest storm to hit Shanghai
since Typhoon Gloria in 1949, according to
state news media.
Shanghai, a city with a population of 25
million, activated its highest level of
emergency response on Sunday.
This included halting railway services, closing
ports, bridges, and highways, and cancelling
all flights at its two airports.
These disruptions are occurring during China’s
three-day Mid-Autumn Festival public holiday
which began on Sunday.
China’s State Flood Control and Drought Relief
Headquarters on 15 September activated the
Level IV emergency response for east China’s
Anhui Province and raised the response in
Shanghai and Zhejiang to Level III.
Level IV is the lowest emergency response
level, indicating a potential threat but not an
immediate crisis.
Typhoon Bebinca was on the heels of Super
Typhoon Yagi, which recently devastated Hainan
Island in southern China, resulting in extensive damage.
Yagi then continued its destructive path into
northern Vietnam and
Thailand, causing floods and damaging
infrastructure.
Thumbnail image: A man walks a street
during heavy rain amid Typhoon Bebinca in
Shanghai, China on 16 September 2024. Shanghai
has closed its seaports and canceled over 600
flights in preparation for Typhoon Bebinca.
(ALEX PLAVEVSKI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
Gas16-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week
ended 13 September 2024.
Asia
LAB struggles amid crude oil weakness; Q4
supply to tighten
By Clive Ong 13-Sep-24 13:40 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market
remains in the doldrums with sentiment staying
cautious following recent slippages in crude
oil prices, while supply could tighten in the
fourth quarter.
INSIGHT: China-US trade
tensions build as anti-dumping cases
increase
By Fanny Zhang 12-Sep-24 18:35 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The US has become the top target of
China’s anti-dumping cases for chemical
imports, underscoring growing trade barriers
between the world’s two biggest economies.
Saudi
Arabia fosters closer ties with China; Aramco,
Chinese firms sign fresh deals
By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Sep-24 12:39
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco has
signed new agreements to advance separate
expansion plans with Chinese petrochemical
producers Rongsheng and Hengli.
China Aug petrochemical markets tumble; weak
demand persists
By Yvonne Shi 11-Sep-24 16:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Domestic prices of most petrochemicals
in China declined in August due to weak demand
and new capacity, with not much improvement in
market conditions expected throughout
September.
Asia solvent MX facing headwinds in Sept amid
various bearish factors
By Jasmine Khoo 10-Sep-24 12:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Within Asia, trading activity for
solvent grade mixed xylenes (MX) in certain
import markets like southeast Asia is poised to
take a hit going forward into the later part of
September.
Heavy rains, floodings continue in north
Vietnam in Yagi’s wake
By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Sep-24 16:42 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Heavy rains and floodings continued in
northern Vietnam on Monday, two days since
Super Typhoon Yagi made landfall in the region
and killed more than 20 people.
UPDATE: Sumitomo Chemical to close two
Singapore MMA/PMMA lines by end-Sept
By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Sep-24 12:48 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Sumitomo Chemical will close two of its
three production lines for methyl methacrylate
(MMA) monomer and polymethyl methacrylate
(PMMA) in Singapore by the end of September
this year, the Japanese producer said on
Wednesday.
PODCAST: Weak fuel LPG demand to weigh on China
2024 propane/butane imports
By Lillian Ren 11-Sep-24 10:50 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–ICIS has revised down its forecast for
China’s combined imports of propane and butane
for 2024 because of weaker-than-expected demand
in fuel applications. Wang Yen, Senior Analyst
speaks with Lillian Ren, analyst on the China
propane, butane and LPG markets.
UPDATE: Indonesia starts ‘safeguard measures’
probe into LLDPE imports
By Izham Ahmad 10-Sep-24 18:09 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Indonesia has initiated an
investigation as to whether “safeguard
measures” would be needed in response to a
sharp increase in imports of linear low density
polyethylene (LLDPE), its trade ministry said.
Ammonia13-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer developer Genesis
Fertilizers announced it has partnered with
technology provider CARBONCO and has agreed to
negotiate formal licensing and process design
package services for a carbon capture and
storage (CCS) project.
Genesis said this collaboration marks a
significant step toward the potential
production of sustainable, low-carbon ammonia
and urea nitrogen fertilizer for their farming
partners and the broader fertilizer industry in
North America.
Under the terms CARBONCO would be responsible
for implementing a solution capable of
capturing approximately 1 million tonnes of
carbon dioxide annually, which would then be
transported directly to a sequestration hub.
If implemented, the CCS project would be built
at the proposed Genesis Fertilizers production
complex to be constructed in Belle Plaine,
Saskatchewan, Canada.
The company said both parties are confident
that this first-of-its-kind CCS project would
play a pivotal role in supplying exceptionally
clean grain to the market.
“In line with our ultimate low carbon intensity
fertilizer goal, Genesis Fertilizers has been
working with CARBONCO and is pleased to welcome
them as our technology provider to explore an
exciting opportunity to implement their carbon
capture solution,” said Jason Mann, Genesis
Fertilizers CEO.
“We believe that CARBONCO is the most suitable
partner for our project, offering a robust
solution that meets our technical and
commercial needs.”
The front-end engineering design (FEED) phase
for Genesis Fertilizers project is expected to
begin within the next few months.
The company said the final investment decision
will be made based on the results of the FEED
work and other critical steps, but it is aiming
to commence commercial operations by 2029.
As proposed there would eventually be both
ammonia and urea production with plans to have
75% of output locked into farmer commitments
with the balance sold on the open market.
Genesis has previously said the goal of this
development is to help farmers have access to a
vertically integrate fertilizer supply and
enable the production of low carbon grain.
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Ammonia13-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–As the remnants of what was
Hurricane Francine continues to inundate and
bring severe weather threats to parts of the
southern US, the fertilizer industry in
Louisiana was back in action on Friday having
emerged mostly unscathed by the storm.
Having escaped any confirmed property damage,
with the largest obstacle the loss of power,
plant facilities were said to be back online,
with fertilizer producers including Nutrien
having confirmed the lack of impact from
Francine which made landfall on 11 September.
Most of the problems faced in the last few days
have been delayed and halted logistics given
the fierce winds and heavy rains along with the
brief stoppage of railroad and port operations.
A common refrain was echoed by a producer
source who said, “we had some logistical issues
but no physical damage”.
In Donaldsonville fertilizer producer CF
Industries was heard to be back in production
and loading supply as the storm brought some
disruption to their transportation schedule.
The company has not commented during this event
but as a trader said, “CF now back running.
Barges likely to get sorted over the weekend
and river likely to be back open”.
With the port in New Orleans (Nola) back in
operation there was also further urea barges
business done with expectations of a
significant period of post-harvest application
over the upcoming weeks not washed away by the
recent weather.
Harvesting campaigns have taken a hit and will
be delayed for several days, possibly even
longer depending on rainfall amounts.
The concern is with a delay in these activities
it creates an additional lag for starting
post-harvest field activities like end of the
year fertilizing.
The real impact of this storm and its
subsequent sway on domestic fertilizer
direction likely comes once the extent of crop
damage is understood, with the storm having
arrived as there was considerable acreage
nearing maturity or being harvested across
several states.
Lost of yields causing a reduction in income
could mean a decrease in buying for immediate
supply or reduced interest in pre-pay
commitments.
Ammonia13-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of
Agriculture (USDA) has lifted the expectations
for corn production slightly while soybean
production is being projected to be down
marginally according to the September World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report.
For corn the monthly update is showing an
outlook of increased production but for smaller
supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks.
Corn production is being forecasted at 15.2
billion bushels, which is an increase of 39
million bushels from last month and is based on
a 0.5-bushel increase in yield, which is
calculated at 183.6 bushels/acre.
The September WASDE said the harvested area is
unchanged at 82.7 million acres.
Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are
reduced by 55 million bushels based on
increases in exports and corn used for ethanol
during the period of 2023-2024.
Total corn use is unchanged at 15 billion
bushels.
With supply falling and use unchanged, the USDA
said ending stocks are reduced by 16 million
bushels to stand at 2.1 billion bushels.
The September WASDE said the season-average
corn price received by producers is lowered by
10 cents to $4.10/bushel.
For soybeans, the USDA said supply and use
changes include lower production and beginning
stocks as well as ending stocks.
Without attributing a cause for the dip, the
monthly update shows that soybean production is
projected down by 3 million bushels for a total
estimate of 4.6 billion bushels.
The agency said lower beginning stocks reflect
a slight increase to crush for 2023-2024.
With the 2024-2025 soybean crush and exports
unchanged, the September WASDE is projecting
ending stocks at 550 million bushels, down 10
million bushels from last month.
The season-average soybean price is forecast as
unchanged at $10.80/bushel.
The next WASDE report will be released on 11
October.
Speciality Chemicals13-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Average global rates for
shipping containers fell significantly this
week, including a 21% decrease from Shanghai to
New York, as shippers are shifting cargo
deliveries to the US West Coast to avoid the
planned strike on 1 October.
A strike by union dock
workers at East Coast and US Gulf ports seems
more likely after International Longshoremen’s
Association (ILA) Wage Scale Delegates voted
unanimously last week to support leadership’s
intentions to walk off the job if a new labor
deal is not agreed to when the contract expires
on 30 September.
Supply chain advisors Drewry said the shift has
led to a decrease in demand that has pressured
prices lower.
Average global rates for 40-foot containers
fell b y13% as shown in the following chart.
As much of the peak-season demand has been
pulled forward either to avoid tariffs or the
labor issues, Drewry expects east-west rates to
fall further in the upcoming weeks.
The following chart from Drewry shows the
decrease from Shanghai to both US coasts, as
well as from Shanghai to Rotterdam and Genoa
which have also fallen significantly.
Judah Levine, head of research at online
freight shipping marketplace and platform
provider Freightos, said rates from Asia to the
US West could face upward pressure the deadline
to make the decision to shift coasts has about
passed.
“Transatlantic shippers still have a little
time left to move containers, and the
approaching cutoff may be supporting the
$300/FEU (40-foot equivalent units) increase in
daily rates so far this week,” Levine said.
Container ships and costs for shipping
containers are relevant to the chemical
industry because while most chemicals are
liquids and are shipped in tankers, container
ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in
pellets.
They also transport liquid chemicals in
isotanks.
LIQUID TANKER RATES
STEADY
Rates for liquid chemical tankers ex-US Gulf
were unchanged this week.
On the transatlantic eastbound trade lane
contract cargoes are keeping things steady with
owners looking to fill holes of open space.
October contract volumes on the transpacific
route remain tentative but a shipping broker
expects part cargo space to be available across
the regular players.
The USG-South America east coast trade lane was
quiet this week, but the regular owners have
space for prompt loading.
Thumbnail photo: A container ship
carrying cargo on its way to Antwerp Harbour.
(By OLIVIER HOSLET/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
Ethylene13-Sep-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The Argentinian’s government
attempt to turn the economy around has had
certain successes in the fiscal front, but high
inflation is still challenging the outlook as
it continues to eat up on gains elsewhere,
according to an economist at Buenos Aires-based
Fundacion Capital.
Carlos Perez, director at the consultancy, said
metaphorically that the Argentinian economy has
been released from the intensive care unit but
only to be moved on to the general ward of an
imaginary hospital, “The economy remains a
patient.”
Perez, who was an executive at Argentina’s
central bank between 2004 and 2013, said he was
impressed with the fiscal consolidation in
President Javier Milei’s first nine months in
office, but added the challenges ahead remain
daunting and a change in society’s mindset – a
“regime change”, he said – is needed to make
the system functional.
While at this stage most economists think Milei
could go 50/50 to success or failure, Perez
said his opinion now would be tilted towards a
60% chance of success, because of the quick
progress done so far.
ON THE TIGHTROPEHowever,
a 40% chance of failure is still painfully high
for a society which has been battered by half a
century of economic up and downs – in the past
two decades, more downs than ups.
Many of Milei’s policies are inspired in
center-right former President Mauricio Macri
(2015-2019), who tried to liberalize one of the
closest economies in the world; the experiment
worked for a bit, but the return of the
center-left Peronists changed course again.
All in all, since former President Nestor
Kirchner’s first term (2003-2007), who was then
to be succeeded by his wife Cristina Fernandez
de Kirchner, the economy in Argentina has lived
on steroids, with widespread subsidies which
Milei has started to withdraw.
Printing money to fund that spending became the
norm. The result is Argentina’s
stratospherically high inflation, still running
at
annual rate of 237% and with monthly
inflation still running at over 4% – bringing
monthly price rises below that threshold was
one of Milei’s key targets.
“The economy has gone into intermediate care,
but it is still early to see the light at the
end of the tunnel. But considering the fiscal
adjustment in these nine months, with respect
to the fiscal results that Argentina had in the
last 50 years, one has to say that in fiscal
terms the government has done a very good job,”
said Perez.
“When I say very good, what I mean is that not
only you have achieved to cover public
spending, but also to cover the payment of the
interest on the public debt that you were
having because of the recurring fiscal
deficits, ie they have achieved a primary
surplus.”
However, the cabinet has been able to achieve a
primary surplus with drastic cuts to public
spending – the start of subsidies’ withdrawal
or putting on hold all public works, for
instance – which are denting consumption at the
same time.
However, Perez says cutting public spending is
in a way the healthiest option to achieve a
surplus, the other two being by issuing debt or
increasing spending, “Both are a little bit
bread for today and hunger for tomorrow,” said
Perez.
“What happens is that you had hyperinflation on
the horizon, and the fiscal imbalance was the
implicating variable par excellence. The
cabinet chose the healthiest way [to achieve a
surplus].”
While there have not been yet widespread
redundancies among civil servants, Perez
expects that process to happen gradually in the
coming quarters, with public authorities
setting up schemes for leavers in which, for
example, they give them a period of 12 months
to find another employment in the private
sector.
“The cabinet wants the private sector to be the
motor of the economy. That will imply a change
in society’s mindset, which has lived in a
subsidized system for more than 20 years,
accustomed to Nanny State, with a small break
during Macri’s term which never amounted to a
proper regime change,” said Perez.
“Society is asking for radical change, and the
certainty of regime change is not yet installed
in the economic agents’ minds. It is very
different for the business community to take
decisions on investments with an installed,
stable regime than to take those decisions
under rules which may last as little as one
cabinet’s term.”
LIQUIDITY IMPROVEMENTS
STALLArgentina’s fiscal deficits
continuously knocked on the door of the
non-independent central bank, who kept printing
money and ran out of pretty much all its
reserves.
During Milei’s first five months in office, up
to May, the central bank also overturned that
situation and bought approximately $3
billion/month, accumulated reserves.
“However, from June to now it bought less than
$200 million in the past 100 days – practically
nothing. What’s happening? The real exchange
rate today is very similar to what it was
before the devaluation of December
2023, ie what was devaluated has been eaten
up by inflation,” said Perez.
“The exchange rate between the peso and the
dollar is devaluating at around 2% per month,
but monthly inflation remains at 4% per month,
approximately. And you keep accumulating
distortion.”
Many other distortions in Argentina’s economy
remain, said Perez, such as currency controls
which limit the buying or selling of foreign
currency. The government wanted to withdraw
those quickly, but it found the treasury’s
coffers were very much intertwined with the
economy system inherited.
Another bailout agreement with the IMF may also
be necessary, he added, to give breathing space
to the administration to implement its plans,
which the IMF has endorsed.
Like most other bodies, including the IMF,
Fundacion Capital is projecting a fall in
Argentina’s GDP of 4-5% this year, with a
strong rebound in 2025, which will be led by
the commodities exports boom coming from both
agro and oil and gas.
Petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors,
however, may still take a while to feel the
recovery in earnest, according to sources,
as consumers shy away from big-ticket purchases
such durable goods – their pockets are expected
to remain squeezed still for a few quarters.
“If you had asked me in December about the
chances of success, I would have also said 60%
chance of failure, and 40% of success. As of
now, I think those values have reversed and we
are looking better. It’s still little optimism,
but at least we can see an open ending,” said
Perez.
“It will depend on how the government succeeds
in implementing the cultural change it wants,
showing this is not just like the Macri
parenthesis but an actual regime change. It has
several weaknesses, not least its minority in
both Congress and Senate,” said Perez.
“The cultural change must be adopted by society
as well, whom I believe this time can clearly
see there is not money in the state coffers.
Let’s see – but the truth is that society was
fed up with the politics of the past years and
where they led us.”
Interview article by Jonathan
Lopez
Naphtha13-Sep-2024
SITGES, Spain (ICIS)–Chemical companies will
find it easier to charge a green premium as the
cost of carbon increases, fossil feedstock
availability declines and customers realize the
true value of the products they are buying.
The cost of living crisis and poor
profitability down industrial value chains mean
that companies are resistant to paying more for
low carbon and more sustainable products.
But that will change as regulators push up the
cost of carbon content in materials while the
switch away from fossil fuels will make green
alternatives more attractive, according to
panel speakers at the Fecc (European
Association of Chemical Distributors) annual
congress in Sitges, Spain.
They argue that people will be willing to pay a
green premium once there is regulatory support
for carbon pricing, which will incentivize
customers to take account of the savings low
carbon products offer.
Richard Jenkins, senior vice president for
coatings solutions at France’s Arkema said:
“The number of carbon credits will reduce, the
number of companies seeking them will increase,
and this will drive up the value of CO2
avoidance. So when I’m sitting in front of
customers, I’m telling them they have to
consider the whole cost of carbon – it might
cost more per unit but overall you are saving
on the costs of CO2.”
The EU’s Emission Trading
System (ETS) works under the principle of
“cap and trade” where companies are
granted allowances for the maximum amount of
CO2 they may emit from their facilities. They
may buy and sell their allowances but the
overall volume is steadily reduced each year in
line with the EU’s climate targets. As they
become more scarce, the price tends to
increase.
Georg Winkler, senior partner for consultants
McKinsey & Company added: “If you
decarbonize polyethylene (PE) packaging and
then break down the actual costs, they are tiny
– this should only change the price of the
product by a cent or so. Also, if we have a
single-use-plastics tax in Europe then we can
point out the cost saving to our customers.”
Ib Jensen, president and CEO of Swedish
specialty chemicals group Perstorp said: “I
don’t like the term green premium; I prefer the
term fossil discount. Consumers are
increasingly ready to pay a premium, especially
in B2C (business-to-consumer), but also in B2B
(business-to-business) they are appreciating
[the need for a] green premium.”
As the transition to low-carbon transportation
accelerates, demand for diesel and petroleum
will decrease, leading to the closure of more
oil refineries. In turn this will reduce
availability of petrochemical feedstocks for
chemical production, potentially pushing up the
cost of these materials.
Arkema’s Jenkins said: “I don’t believe that
today’s fossil-based chemistry will remain at
the same scale and cost that it is today. We
drive a lot less than we used to and some of my
suppliers are telling me that some raw
materials will be less available in the future.
I think the old solutions may start to cost
more, and as we get to scale the cost of new
solutions will come down.”
He added: “There is a lot of focus on energy
efficiency so solutions which contribute to an
overall cut in the cost of use are important.
Now you’re talking about value rather than per
unit cost – what it is doing and enabling and
solving versus what it is, which is product
push.”
The Fecc annual congress takes place in Sitges,
Spain from 11-13 September 2024.
Focus article by Will Beacham
Thumbnail photo source: Jeppe
Gustafsson/Shutterstock
Polycarbonate13-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: The soundtrack of my youth
was the Canadian rock band, Rush. In the
fabulous Tom Sawyer, the lyrics include: “His
mind is not for rent, always hopeful yet
discontent, he knows changes aren’t permanent,
but change is”.
Don’t let your mind be rented by anybody who
tells you that the global chemicals industry
isn’t going through the most profound set of
changes in its modern-day history.
Nobody knows all the details of the changes
that will be permanent. Anybody who claims they
do know will lead you down a path away from
essential scenario planning.
We do know that in this world of flux and chaos
at a micro level, the following macro trends
are here to stay: Sustainability, ageing
populations across most of the G20, much more
volatile geopolitics, ever greater economic,
social and political disruptions caused by
climate change and the end of debt bubbles.
How will, for example, geopolitics and rising
trade tensions reshape global polycarbonate
(PC) trade flows, demand and trade flows?
In today’s post, I look at scenarios for
China’s net imports or net exports of
polycarbonate in 2024-2030 based on levels of
trade tensions and its ability to export to
third-party countries such as Mexico. These
countries have become a means by which China is
getting around the trade tensions by relocating
export-focused manufacturing plants.
The ICIS base case forecasts that China’s PC
demand growth will fall to an annual average of
3% in 2024-2030 from 17% in 1992-2023.
Assuming this 3% demand growth, capacity growth
at 4% and an operating rate of just 47% in
2024-2030 (the 1992-2023 operating rate
averaged 68%), ICIS forecasts that China’s PC
net imports will be around 460,000 tonnes a
year.
Let’s imagine in a world of increased trade
tensions, China decides it cannot afford to
rely on large volumes of imports. Because of
the trade tensions, it also cannot export
significant quantities of PC to countries such
as Mexico to make autos, etc.
Under this outcome, let’s keep demand and
capacity growth the same in the base case but
raise operating rates to 55%. Average annual
net imports fall to just 80,000 tonnes.
What if, though, trade tensions are not that
bad? If we again keep demand and capacity
growth the same as the base case but raise the
operating rate to 63%, China becomes a net
exporter at an annual average of 460,000 tonnes
between 2024 and 2030.
I plan to attempt to build new demand and
supply models today’s demographic,
geopolitical, debt, sustainability and climate
change realities.
This is going to be immensely difficult.
Failure will be a big part of any success. But
given today’s events, do we have any other
choice?
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
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