LONDON (ICIS)–InterContinental Energy (ICE), developer of the world’s largest planned hydrogen project, could cut the premium of renewable ammonia over carbon-price-adjusted grey ammonia by more than 50%, ICIS data shows. Speaking to ICIS at the World Hydrogen Summit 2025 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, ICE co-founder and chief executive officer Alexander Tancock explained to ICIS that the company’s large-scale hydrogen projects could produce hydrogen at $3/kg or ammonia at $650/ton. ICE projects are some of the largest renewable energy and hydrogen projects on earth. The company is developing three projects, two in Australia – Australian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) and Western Green Energy Hub (WGEH) – and one in Oman called Green Energy Oman (GEO). The combined potential hydrogen output from all three projects, once built, would be 8.4 million tons of hydrogen per annum (MTPA), 0.5MTPA more than total hydrogen consumption combined across the EU 27, the UK, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland in 2023, according to the Clean Hydrogen Observatory. CUTTING THE GREEN PREMIUM WITH LOW-COST AMMONIA Taking into account freight costs for Australia to Germany of $155/ton, sourced by ICIS on 28 May, ICE $650/ton renewable ammonia could theoretically land in Europe with a delivered cost of $805/ton. Comparatively, ICIS assessed its carbon-adjusted ammonia (the emissions from grey ammonia are covered by the carbon price) into north-west Europe price at $524/ton on 22 May. The resultant premium of the renewable ammonia production from ICE’s future projects over carbon-adjusted ammonia based on today’s spot market would be $281/ton. Tancock told ICIS that the company intends to produce first molecules by 2032, meaning the premium is likely to change over the next seven years as the ammonia sector adapts to the energy transition – and the EU carbon price potentially rises. However, considering ICE’s renewable ammonia against alternative sources already discussed in the market, the company’s projections offer market participants a new look at the premium sustainable projects could hold as the market develops. Comparatively, in July 2024 H2Global announced the winner of its pilot auction, where Fertiglobe bid a delivered price of renewable ammonia of €1000/ton ($1130/ton). The German H2Global program procures international volumes of hydrogen or hydrogen derivatives with the ambition of re-selling them on the European market. Hintco, the coordinator of H2Global, noted at the time that it anticipates prices to be lower in the future due to supply-chain efficiencies and scaling of the hydrogen market. Fertiglobe deliveries are guaranteed from 2028, around four years ahead of when ICE could produce its first molecules. ACHIEVING LOW COSTS Although Tancock explained that the ammonia production would likely serve the Asian market, the market information is nonetheless a sign of potential cost reductions. Tancock explained several key components behind the projects that ICE is developing which supports lower-cost hydrogen and ammonia. When selecting a location, Tancock said that it would ideally have “lots of wind, lots of sun…ideally wind at night, sunny during the day, because that would then give you a much higher capacity factor… We looked for political stability, a track record of delivering huge infrastructure projects, finance, proximity to markets…the Middle East and Australia [are] markets where all of that comes together”. He said that there are other locations where these things come together, but ICE chose to focus on Australia and the Middle East. “If you look [at] how long it takes to permit a project in Australia, it’s five-to-seven years…Europe, it can be even longer, US as well.” Timing is another key element to reducing costs. “Any large project takes a really long time because of permitting process, design process. The other thing is, there’s a real decline in the cost curve right now of equipment, whether it’s wind, solar or electrolysers.” Tancock believes that the cost curve is slowing for wind and in solar, but that “it’s still quite steep in electrolysers”. Therefore “the ideal time to start bringing on really large projects will be the 2030s, because if you bring them on too early, you’re sort of locked in quite a high cost base”. ICE aims to bring its electricity-generating capacity online ahead of its electrolysers. Tancock explained that ICE will try to sell electricity to local offtakers and that “there should be some announcements later this year about [selling the projects’ power supply]” as two of them are located near to industry, providing energy-intensive offtakers. Another key component of lower-cost hydrogen and ammonia supply is the ICE patented P2(H2)Node system. The ICE nodes operate on the basis of co-locating electrolysis plants with wind and solar, removing the need to either connect to or build electricity transmission lines, and also through removing any losses that come as a result of using high-voltage lines. Reduced infrastructure due to co-location and reduced need for electricity transmission systems account for a 10% reduction in capital expenditure and a 10% increase in efficiency. READY DEMAND AND OFFTAKE STRUCTURES ICE intends to deliver its first electrons before the end of the decade and first molecules potentially in 2032, Tancock said. Supporting such timelines is the clear identification of demand and offtakers. For its ammonia, ICE is considering selling from its WGEH project into markets such as Korea, Japan, Singapore and China, where Tancock noted shipping as a potential offtake sector. However, some of the primary offtake will be local to the projects themselves. “If you look at our two projects in Australia, the northern project is sitting in the Pilbara, which is the world’s biggest iron ore producer. And just to put statistics on that, 800 million tons a year come out of the Pilbara. If we turned all 26GW [of our project’s capacity] into green iron, we would [cover] 4-5% of that…You would need about 600GW to decarbonize the Pilbara.” Similarly, for ICE’s project in Oman, Tancock explained the proximity to Europe as a benefit, but expanded to say that “Oman is currently…a trans-shipment location for iron ore. So, they import iron ore and turn [it] into pellets, which then get exported,” he said. Oman is currently seeking to decarbonize its export iron pellets, which the ICE GEO project could support and sell into. Nonetheless, Tancock noted that offtake is still the key issue for the development of projects. “The technical aspects all bring challenges, but they’re solvable. In that sense, it’s really questions about offtake,” he said. “So it’s about bringing the costs of our energy down, and then discussing with strategic offtakers who are looking to offtake in the 2030s and beyond.” ICE is currently in discussion with potential offtakers, Tancock explained, stating that on the molecule side “we’ll be signing those in 2027, 2028, so we’re working towards those offtakes at the moment”. Project developers speaking to ICIS regularly consider both the duration of offtake agreements and the total percentage of the project’s output that they would sign under a long-term deal. For ICE, Tancock stated that its projects’ output would need to be entirely contracted. “In the moment, I can’t see us doing much merchant. Now, you know, some people will say ‘oh we could do 80% contracted, 20% merchant,’ [but] all [of] that [is] to be seen…But I would anticipate it’ll be 100% allocated.” When discussing duration, Tancock said that the ideal would be “very long term” but that it’s unlikely to be achievable at the moment, although “those are conversations that are ongoing”. Reflecting on contracting, Tancock explained that he believed there is a role for governments to support. “You will see governments come in a little bit to help facilitate some of these earlier offtakers.” “They did it for LNG, they did it for [nuclear power]. They’ve done it for renewables. They’ve done it for oil and gas. So I think you will see that,” he said. “The first LNG shipments were all backed by very long-term offtakes…20-year offtakes.” GOVERNMENT MANDATES Expanding on the role of governments, Tancock highlighted that obligations for renewable or sustainable products were the right direction for the market to go. Discussing renewable energy, Tancock said that this was driven by government demand, penalties etc. However, Tancock noted that “the harder part we have with molecules is molecules tend to be traded a lot…The molecules come from here and they’re there. So that’s the trickier part we’re facing now when we’re trying to introduce green molecules…how do you, on an intra-regional and intercontinental level, manage that flow? Because if the benefits are flowing through to Oman, why would the German taxpayer keep paying?” As a solution, Tancock drew from recent successes with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), stating “this [the IMO] is a global regulator who’s now put a global tax [on its stakeholders]”, meaning “no country pays, and no country suffers more than anyone else”. For hydrogen and ammonia, “things are happening,” Tancock said, such as the development of green corridors between different countries. “Until we get that, it’s very difficult to see sustained demand in some sectors…IMO is game changing. I think the IMO will show, is showing, that it can be done, but it will take now coordination,” Tancock said.

LONDON (ICIS)–Dow is exiting a carbon fiber and derivates joint venture (JV) with Turkey’s Aksa Akrilik Kimya Sanayii as it continues to focus on core downstream businesses, it said on Monday. The US chemicals producer is selling its 50% stake in DowAksa to its JV partner for an expected $125 million. The sale, which is subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions, is expected to close in the third quarter. “Dow’s decision to exit the joint venture, which was formed in 2012, is consistent with Dow’s best-owner mindset strategy of focusing on its core, high-value downstream businesses,” the company said in a statement.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 30 May. Brazil’s PE market assumes ADDs on US, Canada material to be imposed from June Brazil’s polyethylene (PE) sellers this week are encouraging customers to bring forward purchases on the assumption that the government is to impose antidumping duties (ADDs) on US and Canadian material from June. US ethylene market braces for supply ramp-up as demand stays unsettled After a heavy turnaround season that began in January, the US ethylene market is preparing for a wave of fresh output that threatens to tip the sector back into oversupply as demand continues to face economic and trade policy headwinds. Brazil postpones decision on US-Canada PE antidumping duties Brazil’s foreign trade committee Gecex has postponed a meeting where it was expected to decide on imposing antidumping duties (ADDs) polyethylene (PE) imports from the US and Canada. UPDATE: US trade court rules against Trump’s emergency tariffs on global goods A US court ruled on Wednesday that the president cannot impose global tariffs under an emergency act, voiding all but the sectoral ones that the nation imposed against nearly every country in the world. INSIGHT: Court ruling to remove nearly all US chem tariffs imposed in 2025 A court ruling will leave the US some room to impose tariffs on imports of plastics and chemicals, but if it remains in place, it will eliminate virtually all the duties that the country imposed on those materials – opening the way for other countries to lift their retaliatory tariffs imposed on the nation’s substantial exports of petrochemicals. Appeals court allows US to maintain chem tariffs The US can maintain nearly all the plastic and chemical tariffs it imposed this year after an appeals court granted on Thursday the government’s request to stay the judgment of a lower court. Tricon Energy emphasizes ability to pivot quickly in face of tariff volatility – CEO In an increasingly volatile and uncertain world with a constantly changing US tariff regime throwing fuel on the fire, agility to adjust and pivot is more important than ever for a global chemical distributor, said the CEO of US-based Tricon Energy.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 30 May. NEWS Brazil’s Braskem denies linking PE price increases to antidumping expectationsBraskem has firmly denied it was preparing polyethylene (PE) price increases for June in anticipation of antidumping duties (ADDs) on US and Canadian imports, with a spokesperson at the Brazilian petrochemicals major calling such claims “absolutely unfounded”. Brazil postpones decision on US-Canada PE antidumping dutiesBrazil’s foreign trade committee Gecex has postponed a meeting where it was expected to decide on imposing antidumping duties (ADDs) polyethylene (PE) imports from the US and Canada Brazil’s PVC prices could pick up on higher ADDs; Argentina and Colombia to benefitSome sources in the Brazilian polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market expect prices to rise between 10% and 15% in coming weeks after the government sharply increased antidumping duties (ADDs) on US material. Mexico announces definitive ADDs on imports of Chinese PETMexico has announced it will impose definitive antidumping duties (ADDs) on Chinese polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from 30 May 2025, according to official news from the China Trade Remedies Information website. Mexico protects domestic industry with revised $195/tonne duty on US caustic soda importsOn 29 May 2025, Mexico’s Ministry of Economy published in the Official Gazette (DOF) the Final Resolution of its review of the countervailing duty on imports of liquid caustic soda from the US. Argentina’s manufacturing March output up 4.2%; Milei’s party win in local election boosts cabinetArgentina’s manufacturing sectors output rose by 4.2% in March, year on year, below the overall increase in output in the economy at 5.6%, the country’s statistical agency Indec said this week. INSIGHT: Chile’s strong economic data yet to trickle down to chemicals and votersChile’s healthy growth in Q1 surprised on the upside this week, adding to earlier, better-than-expected indicators but all the positive news have yet failed to lift the chances of a governing party set to return to the opposition benches. LatAm’s chemicals faces severe truck driver shortage amid safety concernsLatin America’s chemicals transportation sector is grappling with a severe driver shortage, an aging workforce, and mounting safety challenges that threaten regional supply chains, according to industry executives this week. Panama Canal faces capacity challenges as it explores new business modelsThe Panama Canal is working to develop new products and services for different client segments while managing capacity constraints that have affected operations, particularly following the severe drought impacts of 2024, an executive at the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) said. Brazil’s Braskem stock shoots up on reports billionaire Nelson Tanure aims to acquire Novonor stakeBraskem’s stock rose sharply in Friday trading after reports citing unnamed sources said Brazilian entrepreneur Nelson Tanure would be seeking to acquire Novonor’s controlling stake at the petrochemicals major. Brazil prosecutors sue China’s EV major BYD for slave labor, human traffickingBrazil’s Public Ministry of Labor (MPT) this week filed a civil action against Chinese automaker BYD and two contractors for allegedly subjecting 220 Chinese workers to conditions analogous to slavery and human trafficking. PRICING LatAm PP international prices increase in Chile, Peru on higher offers from AsiaInternational polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed as higher in Chile and Peru on the back of higher offers from Asia. LatAm PE prices unchanged, discussions shift to JuneDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were unchanged across Latin American countries. Innova announces June PS price increase in BrazilInnova has announced a 10% price increase, excluding local taxes, on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil, effective 1 June 2025, according to a customer letter.

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at the growing risk of a Depression, while investors are busy being distracted with Bitcoin. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s petrochemical shipments declined by 20.8% in May while its semiconductor exports surged, official data showed on 1 June. Petrochemical exports in May fell largely due to international oil prices falling below $65/barrel, which caused a fall in petrochemical unit prices by 13.8% from 1-25 May, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) said in a statement. The country’s overall exports fell by 1.3% year on year to $57.2 billion in May – the first year-on-year decline since January – while imports fell by 5.3% year on year to $50.3 billion. “Exports to both of our key markets – the US and China – declined, and it appears that US tariff measures are affecting the global economy as well as South Korea’s exports,” said Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Ahn Duk-geun. Semiconductor exports recorded their second-highest performance of all time as demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products increased, rising by 21.2% year on year to $13.8 billion in the month, while automobile exports fell by 4.4% year on year. By region, exports to the US, the world’s largest economy, fell by 8.1% year on year amid tariffs imposed on the country. Exports to China, the second largest economy in the world, fell by 8.4% on drops in petrochemical and semiconductor shipments. A broad 10% US tariff has been in effect since early April, while higher tariffs, including a 25% duty on South Korea, are currently suspended for 90 days. However, the US on 31 May threatened to double steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% from 25% currently. In response to the US tariffs, Ahn said South Korea’s government would work with their US counterparts on a “mutually beneficial solution”, while also implementing tariff response vouchers worth won (W) 84.7 billion ($61.7 billion) ($1 = W1,373.70) (recasts lead and paragraph 8 for clarity) Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 30 May. Europe PA market expected to face continued weak demand; supply projected to remain balanced to long Weakened demand and stable supply in the Europe phthalic anhydride (PA) market are expected to continue into June. Moody’s downgrades Sasol on weak chems, oil markets Moody’s has cut its rating for Sasol from stable to negative on the back of “continued operating performance deterioration” in the face of weak chemicals and oil markets, the agency said on Thursday. ExxonMobil to sell its Gravenchon, France refinery to Canada’s North Atlantic ExxonMobil is selling its refinery at Gravenchon, France, to Canadian refining group North Atlantic. Clariant rejects fresh €1 billion damages claim from OMV Clariant has rejected OMV’s claim for around €1 billion in damages for competition law infringement, the Swiss producer announced.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in May remained below the expansion threshold of 50.0 but was up from the previous month amid a pause in the US-China tariff war. Official PMI contracts for second straight month Trade-war pause lifts demand China Q2 GDP to post 4.9% annualized growth – UOB The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of the world’s second-biggest economy inched up to 49.5 in May from April’s reading of 49.0, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. Trade tensions between with the US eased in May following an agreement between the world’s two biggest economies to suspend tariffs on each other until August. China is a major importer of petrochemicals whose self-sufficiency has been growing over the years due to strong capacity expansion. “Some US-related companies reported that foreign trade orders were restarted at an accelerated pace, and import and export conditions improved,” NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said. The official manufacturing PMI surveys large state-owned enterprises. Both production and demand in May improved compared with the previous month’s, indicating an acceleration in both manufacturing and new orders, according to the NBS. Production index rose to 50.7 in May from 49.8 in the previous month, while new orders index inched up to 49.8 from 49.2 over the same period. Production of equipment, high-tech and consumer goods improved, registering readings above 50. China’s non-manufacturing PMI, comprising services and construction, eased to 50.3 in May from 50.4 in April, nudging up the composite PMI (which includes the improved reading for manufacturing) to 50.4 compared with the previous month’s 50.2. OUTLOOK In a research note on Monday, economists at Singapore-based UOB Global Markets & Research said the trade truce would provide “some near-term support for [GDP] growth”, which is projected at 4.9% for Q2. However, UOB added that the growth pace would slow to 4.2% year on year in the second half of the year amid continued uncertainty over ongoing trade discussions between the US and China, as well as where the tariff rates will land eventually. “China’s stimulus will lend further support to stabilize its outlook,” said UOB. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a port in Qingdao City in Shandong, east China on 27 May 2025. (Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) continued to contract in May, with a reading below 50 for the 11th consecutive month. The May number at 49.4, however, inched up from 48.7 in the previous month as downturn in new orders eased, au Jibun Bank said on Monday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a lower number denotes contraction. “Business conditions faced by Japanese manufacturers deteriorated at the softest pace in 2025 so far in May,” the bank said in a statement. Operating conditions for investment goods makers in Japan improved in May, while conditions deteriorated at a softer pace across the intermediate goods segment. A softer decline in overall new work received by Japanese manufacturers in May contributed to the improved index. Total new business fell modestly, generally linked to subdued demand amid US tariffs and increased “client hesitancy”. The decline in new export orders also moderated since April. Softer demand conditions led to a further reduction in factory output across Japan during May. The rate of contraction was modest, though it quickened slightly from April. Optimism strengthened for the year-ahead outlook for output, rising from April’s near five-year low, au Jibun Bank said. “Growth projections were often supported by forecasts of firmer global demand conditions and new product releases,” it said. However, some firms expressed concerns over US tariffs, inflation, and a shrinking population. Manufacturers in Japan signaled another marginal deterioration in supplier performance during May. A number of companies suggested that material and labor shortages at some vendors had stretched delivery times. Average input costs faced by Japanese goods producers increased at a softer pace in May, with the rate of inflation the weakest in 14 months. At the same time, selling price inflation also eased in May, with charges rising at the softest rate in nearly four years. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image: At a port in Tokyo, Japan, 12 May 2025. (FRANCK ROBICHON/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)