SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 15 November. INSIGHT: India’s ADD findings on PVC have potential to reshape regional flows in wider Asia By Jonathan Chou 11-Nov-24 11:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market players are assessing the potential ramifications following preliminary findings on India’s PVC imports released by the country’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR). Asia petrochemical shares tumble as China stimulus disappoints By Jonathan Yee 11-Nov-24 15:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia tumbled on Monday as China’s much-awaited stimulus measures failed to impress markets, while the US is likely to put up more trade barriers against the Asian giant following the re-election of Donald Trump as president. Asia toluene markets slump on waning regional demand By Melanie Wee 12-Nov-24 11:47 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s toluene spot markets are being weighed down by a combination of burgeoning supply and lacklustre demand, at a time when arbitrage economics to divert material to the US were unviable. Asia petrochemical shares fall on strong US dollar, uncertain trade policies By Nurluqman Suratman 13-Nov-24 14:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, tracking weakness in regional bourses, amid a strong US dollar and uncertainty over trade policies of US President-elect Donald Trump which could fuel inflation. Shell Singapore site divestment deal to be completed in Q1 2025 By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Nov-24 11:41 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell expects the deal to sell its energy and chemicals park in Singapore to Chandra Asri and Glencore will be completed by the first quarter of 2025, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. INSIGHT: China may accelerate PP exports amid intensified supply and demand imbalance By Lucy Shuai 14-Nov-24 13:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China may accelerate PP exports in 2025 amid an intensified imbalance between supply and demand as a large number of new plants are expected to start up. PODCAST: SE Asia propylene to face additional supply, freight challenges in 2025 By Damini Dabholkar 15-Nov-24 11:28 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asia’s propylene market faces significant challenges in 2025, with additional supply expected and freight rates continuing to impact downstream demand. Crimped supplies ease pressure on Asia VAM prices By Hwee Hwee Tan 15-Nov-24 14:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sporadic plant disruptions and crimped supplies in China are fuelling expectations of price competition easing across vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) import markets in Asia.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US were largely stable this week but exporters are being urged to book outgoing shipments 4-6 weeks in advance as labor issues between union dock workers and US Gulf and East Coast ports stalled. For US companies working to export excess volumes to balance year-end inventories, those shipments need to be going out this week. For importers, rates from Asia to the US West Coast fell by 2% and are down by almost 3% over the past two weeks, according to supply chain advisors Drewry and as shown in the following chart. The chart also shows rates from Asia to New York were largely stable, down by 0.20% and by 0.36% over the past two weeks. Global average rates held steady at around $3,440/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit), as shown in the following chart. With the breakdown in negotiations between the US Maritime Alliance (USMX), representing the ports, and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), representing the dock workers, and with the expectation of significant tariff increases under the administration of President-elect Donald Trump, analysts expect a surge of imports over the last few weeks of the year. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has revised its forecast for the rest of the year on the developments. Ports have not yet reported October’s numbers, but the NRF/Hackett Associates Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units), up 3.7% year on year. November is forecast at 2.15 million TEU, up 13.6% year on year, and December at 1.99 million TEU, up 6.1%. That would bring 2024 to 25.3 million TEU, up 13.6% from 2023. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. CANADA PORT LABOR ISSUES The Port of Montreal will resume operations on Saturday, 16 November, at 07:00 local time, following labor disruptions that started on 31 October and a subsequent lockout of about 1,200 dock workers. The Port of Vancouver and other Canadian west coast ports resumed operations on Thursday after a strike and lockout of about 730 foremen who supervise more than 7,000 dock workers that began on 4 November. The Port of Vancouver is Canada’s largest port by far. More than Canadian dollar (C$) 22 million ($15.7 million) of chemistry and plastic products was traded through Vancouver and other west coast ports each day in 2023, for a total of C$8 billion for the year, according to the Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC). LIQUID CHEM TANKER RATES STABLE US chemical tanker spot rates were overall steady this week for most trade lanes, while vessel demand continues to remain soft for various routes. One exception is rates from the USG to the Mediterranean, which surged as interest to this region remains steady. There was an uptick on cargoes from various regions to Montreal as shippers work to deliver and pick up material before the ice season closes for winter transit and soon will require ice class vessels. The US Gulf to ARA remains soft and solid for contractual cargoes and as CPP tonnage continues to participate in the chemical sector. If it persists it could continue to pressure to the market even further. Similarly, that situation exists for volumes on the USG to the Caribbean and South America trade lanes. From the USG to these regions, space among regular carriers remains available, due to a lack of interest. However, for the USG to Asia spot volumes continue to be weak as there seems to be plenty of prompt space available. Mainly parcels of monoethylene glycols (MEG), ethanol and methanol to this region seems to have provided any support to the weak market. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market in various directions. Bunker prices remain stable mainly due to the continued the volatility in energy prices week on week. PANAMA CANAL MAINTENANCE The West Lane of Miraflores Locks will be out of service due to concrete maintenance on the West Southend approach wall for about 48 hours from early on 23 November until late on 24 November, according to the Panama Canal Authority (PCA). The number of slots available to super and regular vessels will be reduced because of the maintenance. Once the maintenance is complete, the 20 slots for supers and the six slots for regular vessels will be reinstated for booking dates beginning 25 November, the PCA said. As of September, the PCA has 36 slots per day after limiting transits late in 2023 because of a severe drought in the region. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan and Stefan Baumgarten

TORONTO (ICIS)–The Port of Montreal will resume operations on Saturday, 16 November, at 07:00 local time, following labor disruptions that started on 31 October and a subsequent lockout of about 1,200 dock workers. The Maritime Employers Association (MEA) said it received an order from the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to resume operations. The federal government earlier this week directed the CIRB to order the resumption of all operations at Montreal, as well as Canada’s West Coast ports, where operations resumed on Thursday. The MEA said it would work closely with the longshoremen’s labor union Syndicat des debardeurs and the Montreal Port Authority to ensure operations resume safely and efficiently. Montreal is Canada’s second-largest port after Vancouver. Last year, the Port of Montreal handled a total volume of 35.3 million tonnes of goods, according to its website. Meanwhile, at US East Coast ports, a labor dispute remains paused but there are concerns about whether employers and unions will reach an agreement by the 15 January deadline. LEGAL CHALLENGES The labor unions representing the port workers in Montreal and the Canadian West Coast ports said they would challenge the government intervention in court as it violated workers’ constitutionally protected rights to strike and to negotiate better wages and terms. Political commentators said that by intervening in labor disputes and settling them through binding arbitration, the government was siding with employers. The very expectation of a government intervention encouraged employers to lock out workers and then use the resulting economic damage to put pressure on government to intervene, they said. Earlier this year, another labor union, Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC), filed a court challenge against the government’s move in August to intervene and end a freight rail labor dispute. That case has not yet been decided. Additional reporting by Adam Yanelli Thumbnail photo source: Port of Montreal

BARCELONA (ICIS)–Donald Trump’s proposed tariff hikes on major trading partners could spark a trade war which will drive the end of a globalized economy plus more local and circular chemical supply chains. US-China trade war would drag on economic growth World may return to more national and intra-regional trade in chemicals Trump could help drive the end of deglobalization Development of more local, circular supply chains Chemicals Q3 financial results show some volume growth But industry still at the bottom of a trough Lack of growth from automotive, construction In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS market development executive Nigel Davis and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–PTT Asahi Chemical will cease operations from 1 January 2025, according to the company’s parent firms – Thailand’s PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) and Japan’s Asahi Kasei on Friday. It operates a 200,000 tonne/year propane-based acrylonitrile (ACN) plant; a 70,000 tonne/year methyl methacrylate (MMA) plant; and a 60,000 tonne/year acetone cyanohydrin unit in Map Ta Phut, Thailand, according to ICIS data. A business withdrawal plan for the 50:50 joint venture company was approved by shareholders on Friday, PTTGC said in a bourse filing.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Southeast Asia’s propylene market faces significant challenges in 2025, with additional supply expected and freight rates continuing to impact downstream demand. In this latest podcast, ICIS senior editor Julia Tan speaks with senior analyst Shariene Goh to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead next year. High freight rates likely to remain key challenge to PP exports, which could weigh on propylene demand Southeast Asia to take price direction from northeast Asia Net deficit for Indonesia despite Indonesia’s LINE project

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil is to start an investigation into polyethylene (PE) arriving on its shores from the US and Canada and whether the material constituted dumping, the government said. As previously reported by ICIS, the proposals to investigate came from polymers major Braskem and were backed by Brazil’s chemicals trade group representing producers, Abiquim. Braskem is the dominant PE producers in Brazil, and antidumping duties (ADDS) on US- and Canada-originated PE would considerably prop up its domestic market position. The start of investigation proceedings was published in Brazil’s Diario Oficial da Uniao (Official Gazette). The investigation is to be carried out by the Department of Commercial Defense (Decom), which is part of the Ministry of Industry’s Secretary of Foreign Trade. Braskem filed on July 31 a petition to initiate an investigation into the practice of dumping of PE resins exports to Brazil with US or Canadian origin. The analysis of the evidence of dumping is to consider the period from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, while the period for analyzing potential damage caused to domestic producers is to consider the period from April 1, 2019 to March 31, 2024. “Due to the large number of producers/exporters from the US and Canada identified in the detailed data on Brazilian imports … the producers or exporters responsible for the largest reasonably investigable percentage of the export volume of the exporting country will be selected to send the questionnaire,” said Decom. “The absolute dumping margins determined for the purposes of this document reached $220.95/tonne and $264.99/tonne, and the relative margins were 21.4% and 26.9% for the US and Canada, respectively. It can be inferred that, if such dumping margins did not exist, domestic industry prices could have reached higher levels, reducing or even eliminating the effects of the investigated imports.” Braskem said earlier in November it is lobbying the Brazilian government to extend ADDs on polyvinyl chloride (PVC) beyond 2025 when they are due to expire. In October, the government implemented higher import tariffs on several chemicals, also after heavy pressure by domestic producers and their trade group Abiquim. Additional reporting by Bruno Menini

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US exporters are being urged to book outgoing shipments four to six weeks in advance as US and Canadian port labor issues are ongoing and could coincide with the pre-Lunar New Year peak season on the Asia-to-US trade route. For US companies working to export excess volumes to balance year-end inventories, those shipments need to be going out this week. According to ICIS Senior Analyst Kelly Coutu, increasing export shipments at year end for US petrochemical producers trying to balance year end inventories with weaker domestic demand is becoming increasingly challenging. “Container availability, especially to South American west coast ports, have been cited by several traders as problematic to secure,” Coutu said. Yusen Logistics said in a customer advisory that rail terminals at the US West Coast are congested, and inland point intermodal (IPI) dwell times are up to 40 days with terminal utilization above 85%. Yusen cited Sea-Intelligence data through September showing that global schedule reliability has fallen to 51.4%, down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. The average delay for late vessel arrivals increased by 0.21 days month on month to 5.67 days – the third-highest figure for the month, only surpassed by pandemic highs of 2021-2022, according to Sea-Intelligence. For cargo shipping out of West Coast ports, Yusen said some rail carriers implemented allocation restrictions because of a surge in traffic, which caused delays in the cargo staging area outside of the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, although those restrictions have largely been lifted at present. For cargo shipping out of East Coast ports, Yusen said most of the major ocean carriers have ended some routes and replaced larger ships with smaller ones for higher volume trades. Hapag Lloyd is the only carrier that has increased its capacity on these routes in the past 12 months, Yusen said. For cargo destined for South America, ports along the east coast of the continent are facing congestion and increased waiting times due to high traffic volume. Bad weather in southern Brazil forced cargo to change routes to other ports, causing delays as this new cargo was processed. Additionally, ships delayed by the brief labor strike at US East Coast ports are arriving in South America, adding to the existing congestion/delays. Also, ports in Mexico are facing delays due to bad weather affecting ports on the Atlantic side. High occupancy rates at Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas are also reducing how efficiently they operate. USEC PORT LABOR TALKS BREAK DOWN While the East Coast labor issue is paused, concerns persist on whether the two sides can reach an agreement by the 15 January deadline. Talks broke down on Wednesday as discussions centered around automation and semi-automation at the ports. The US Maritime Alliance (USMX), representing the ports, said the union’s insistence on an agreement that “would move our industry backward by restricting future use of technology that has existed in some of our ports for nearly two decades” contributed to talks breaking off. The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) said the USMX claim that its focus is on modernization and not automation was disingenuous. “The ILA has always supported modernization when it leads to increased volumes and efficiency,” the union said. “We embrace technologies that improve safety and efficiency, but only when a human being remains at the helm. Automation, whether full or semi, replaces jobs and erodes the historical work functions we’ve fought hard to protect.” Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

Traders agree that financial activity exaggerates trends on European gas benchmark TTF The number of individual players from investment funds is nearly the double of energy companies active on ICE TTF as of 8 November Their activity tends to be more frequent despite lower total open positions LONDON (ICIS)–The rising presence of investment funds relative to physical traders on the ICE TTF could exacerbate curve volatility this winter. While it is hard to attribute market movements to these entities alone, many traders agree that financial trading tends to exaggerate trends. What is undeniable is that their presence on the market has grown steeply since Europe lost access to its stable supply of pipeline gas from Russia and became reliant on LNG, a global commodity susceptible to global price drivers and disruptions. ICIS has previously observed that shifts in investment funds’ net long positions have correlated with TTF curve movements since the fourth quarter of 2023, but the causation is hotly debated. Financial players tend to have a higher risk appetite than physical ones, and are useful in providing bids and offers on far-curve contracts where there may not otherwise be any. INDIVIDUAL POSITION HOLDERS The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) publishes the “number of persons holding a position in each category”in the weekly Commitment of Traders (CoT) table. The presence of investors grew by 1.7 times from January 2023 to January 2024 based on figures from ICE CoT reports collected from the ESMA register. Meanwhile individual energy companies’ presence (“commercial undertakings” per the CoT report) increased just 1.4 times. More recently, the investment fund total has increased from 312 on 30 August to 365 on 8 November, while energy companies grew from 191 to 196. The ratio of funds to energy companies went from 1.6 to 1.9 over that period. “Investment firms or credit institutions”, mostly banks, act on behalf of utilities and financial players alike, and are therefore hard to pin down. Their presence has remained relatively constant around 60-70 individuals throughout 2024. While overall energy companies hold a much larger amount of total positions – 1,900TW compared to funds’ 606TW as of 8 November – the latter comprises nearly double the amount of individual traders. “It depends what you do with the positions you have,” one trader explained. “If I buy 100MW Cal ’26 today and hold it for one year I don’t move the market, but if I trade 500MW front month every hour, day and week… you move the market.” Another trader mentioned hedge funds’ contribution to the current TTF Summer ’25 premium over Winter ’25 : “You know you’ll be full enough by winter, but you don’t know if you can get enough gas in as LNG supply is uncertain. And you know how a bullish market trades, it’s not only utilities and storage players in this market,” the trader said, adding that hedge funds can also move the market. A third concurred, “I would say the front is pushed up by financial players.”