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Speciality Chemicals03-Sep-2024
BARCELONA (ICIS)–New
analysis suggests the chemical industry may
face a more rapidly aging and shrinking
population in key markets such as China, while
the subsequent drag on demand means new
business models will be required.
China-driven petrochemicals supercycle is
over
China’s population may be aging and
shrinking more quickly than previously thought
China may switch to become net exporter of
many synthetic resins
Demographic shifts will shrink demand for
chemicals throughout developed world
Developing world faces challenges which may
slow growth
New business models will be required to
create opportunities from these trends
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews Nigel
Davis and John
Richardson from the ICIS market
development team and Paul
Hodges, chairman of New Normal
Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
Register here .
Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.
Petrochemicals03-Sep-2024
MUMBAI (ICIS)–Several ports across India’s
western state of Gujarat have resumed normal
operations even as heavy rains are projected to
continue throughout the week.
Operations at some ports had suffered some
disruptions since late August because of
inclement weather.
In a note dated 2 September, shipping and
logistics firm GAC Shipping, Logistics &
Marine Services said that activities at Kandla
port had been severely impacted due to the
heavy rainfall since 26 August and cargo
operations had slowed down.
Operations have now resumed at the port, it
added.
At Mundra port, vessel movements and cargo
operations have also restarted and are now back
to normal.
Dahej port has also resumed operations after
suspending berthing operations at several
terminals due to heavy rainfall and wind on 29
August.
The same was true for Pipavav port, which
halted operations on 28 August.
Sikka and Hazira ports, on the other hand, have
continued normal operations.
On Tuesday afternoon, the Indian Meteorological
Department said that isolated extremely heavy
rainfall is likely over parts of Gujarat
between 3 September and 4 September.
There is a risk of low-to-moderate flash floods
occurring in parts of Gujarat over the next 24
hours, it added.
Ethylene02-Sep-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s manufacturing PMI
index for August sharply slowed down from July
on the back of output falling for the first
time in several months due to subdued sales,
and elevated cost pressures, analysts at
S&P Global said on Monday.
At 50.4 points in August, the manufacturing PMI
stood just above the 50.0 point mark which
separates expansion from contraction. It also
represented a sharp slowdown from July’s 54.0 points.
Brazil manufacturing
August
July
June
May
April
March
February
January
December 2023
November
October
September
PMI index
50.4
54.0
52.5
52.1
55.9
53.6
54.1
52.8
48.4
49.4
48.6
49.0
Source: S&P Global
While the fall in production was described as
slight, it marks a reversal from the growth
trend seen earlier in the year.
New business growth slowed to a multi-month
low, though some firms noted a shift from
imported to domestic goods due to high shipping
fees, suggesting a complex demand environment
where domestic producers may be benefiting from
import challenges, but overall demand remains
subdued.
Export sales growth also softened, with
improved demand from Asia and the Middle East
offset by lower orders from the US and Mercosur
countries.
Cost pressures intensified significantly,
reaching a multi-year high. Companies reported
increased prices for chemicals, fabrics,
foodstuffs, packaging, plastics and
transportation, often attributing these rises
to currency depreciation.
Despite these challenges, manufacturers showed
increased optimism about the year-ahead
outlook. This positive sentiment was attributed
to plant expansion plans, product
diversification efforts, investment intentions,
and forecasts of a potential pick-up in demand.
Employment continued to rise, albeit at a
slower pace than earlier in the year. The
moderation in job creation was linked to
shortages of skilled job seekers and
cost-cutting measures at some units.
Nevertheless, the continued growth in
employment allowed firms to reduce their
backlogs of work.
“The Brazilian manufacturing sector suffered a
loss of momentum in August, with surging cost
pressures hampering firms’ ability to secure
new business. Manufacturers even took the step
of scaling back production and softened the
pace of hiring in a bid to limit costs,” said
Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director
at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“Firms will be hoping for an improvement in the
real exchange rate soon to help relieve some of
the pressure on costs and lead to a
revitalization of growth in the months ahead.”
Front page picture: Facilities operated by
Brazilian polymers major Braskem in the state
of Sao Paulo
Source: Braskem
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Ethylene02-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 30 August.
ICIS Economic
Summary: US economy slowing, not falling off a
cliff
August started with reports of high weekly
initial unemployment claims, a weak
manufacturing PMI reading and a lackluster
payroll report. Equity markets did not react
well to this as evidenced by a three-day sell
off. But the panic ended, a rebound ensued and
we are back to where we were on 31 July as the
underlying economic fundamentals of a
late-phase business cycle remain. The economy
is slowing, not falling off a cliff.
IPEX: Global spot
index slips on lower prices in northeast Asia,
US Gulf
The global spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX)
slipped by nearly one-percentage point in the
week ending 23 August, on the back of price
falls in northeast Asia and the US Gulf.
Outages, demand
supporting US ethylene prices at two-year
highs
US ethylene spot prices have begun to decline
but remain at two-year highs in both Texas and
Louisiana after a series of cracker outages and
improvement in derivative demand.
Argentina
petchems to take time to feel benefits from cut
to import tariffs
Argentina’s petrochemicals players are in a
wait-and-see mode about the effects a cut to
import tariffs announced this week could have
in the market and whether it will lower prices
which, for many materials, remain higher than
global prices.
RAIL: US rail
companies strike deals with unions months ahead
of next bargaining round
US railroads Norfolk Southern (NS) and BNSF
have reached tentative, five-year collective
bargaining agreements with several labor unions
four months ahead of the opening of the next
collective bargaining round, the companies
announced on Friday.
Petrochemicals02-Sep-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on
Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges,
which looks at the major changes underway in
the auto market and how they are set to
transform the chemicals business.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of
consultants New
Normal Consulting.
Speciality Chemicals02-Sep-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories
from ICIS Europe for the week ended 30 August.
Europe OX post-summer
restocking intentions unclear as weak demand
lingers
Restocking operations after the summer were
once common practice in the European
orthoxylene (OX) market, but this year could be
different.
BASF
to shut down adipic acid production at
Ludwigshafen next year
BASF is to end production of adipic acid and
several downstream units at Ludwigshafen,
Germany, as part of structural changes underway
at the site, the company said on Thursday.
Rising costs, outages
fail to rattle sluggish propylene oxide market
in Europe
Outages at domestic suppliers, a local unit
being flagged for a potential sale and rising
production costs have failed to rattle a
sluggish European propylene oxide (PO) market.
Europe August nylon 6,6
contract prices soften in a slow
market
European nylon 6,6 contract prices for August
softened from July levels, posting highly
varied monthly deltas.
Global spot index slips
on lower prices in northeast Asia, US
Gulf
The global spot ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX)
slipped by nearly one-percentage point in the
week ending 23 August, on the back of price
falls in northeast Asia and the US Gulf.
Petrochemicals02-Sep-2024
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s economic growth slowed
down to 6.7% in the April-June 2024 on reduced
government capital expenditure during the
national elections and an uneven monsoon
season, official data showed.
The fiscal Q1 growth was the lowest GDP growth
in 15 months, according to the Ministry of
Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)
on 30 August. The country’s fiscal year ends in
March.
The number was lower than the 7.8%
growth posted in the previous quarter and
the 8.2% pace set in April-June 2023.
The growth was also lower than the Reserve Bank
of India’s (RBI) forecast of 7.2% for the
quarter.
For current fiscal year ending March 2025, the
central bank is projecting a GDP growth of
7.2%, with Q2 at 7.2%, Q3 at 7.3% and Q4 at
7.2%.
The slowdown in GDP growth occurred due to
reduced government spending during the election
period, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said at a
press conference on 31 August.
India’s general elections
were held from 19 April to 1 June 2024.
“Domestic economic activity continues to be
resilient on positive trends in agriculture,
and an anticipated increase in government
expenditure. Manufacturing activity continues
to gain ground on the back of improving
domestic demand,” he added.
An anticipated increase in government
expenditure over the next few months would
provide the required support to economic
growth, Das said.
India’s economic growth has been robust, with
an average growth rate of 8.3% over the last
three years, he added.
Crude Oil02-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s August official
manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI)
dropped to a six-month low of 49.1, while a
private survey by Caixin gives an expansion
print of 50.4 from 49.8 in July.
The official PMI published by the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had been in
contraction territory for four consecutive
months, pointing to persisting weakness in
factory activity.
The sub production index fell to 49.8 in August
from 50.1 in July, while new order index
declined to 48.9 in August from 49.3 in the
previous month, NBS said.
High temperatures, intensive rain and seasonal
lull in combine dragged the PMI figures,
according to NBS.
For Caixin, the private firm said there was a
slight uptick in production index and strong
rebounding in new order index, which is mainly
driven by improving basic demands and all types
of promotions.
Gas02-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week
ended 30 August 2024.
Asia EDC demand suppressed while deep-sea
availability improves
By Jonathan Chou 30-Aug-24 12:19 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Soft downstream conditions are weighing
on demand for ethylene dichloride (EDC) in
Asia. Margins of some downstream polvinyl
chloride (PVC) producers are being depressed by
an influx of imports in the key markets of
India and southeast Asia.
SE Asia regional ethylene tightness sees more
arbitrage opportunities
By Josh Quah 28-Aug-24 18:07 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The market thus far is on track to end
the third quarter as anticipated in the ICIS
outlook for second-half 2024. The two main
regions in Asia’s ethylene markets – northeast
Asia and southeast Asia – have diverged in
terms of demand-supply fundamentals.
INSIGHT: China PP exports to seek other outlets
amid intense competition in southeast
Asia
By Lucy Shuai 27-Aug-24 17:34 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–As China’s polypropylene (PP) capacity
increases and a weak economy drags down demand,
the imbalance between supply and demand has
intensified and China’s PP exports have surged.
NE Asia ACN at the lowest point in a year,
market players await seasonal demand
By Corey Chew 27-Aug-24 11:11 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The acrylonitrile (ACN) market saw
prices fall significantly last week in the
northeast Asia market, while the India market
saw a smaller decrease.
India’s BPA price falls; sellers may face more
pressure
By Li Peng Seng 26-Aug-24 13:59 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The average bisphenol A (BPA) spot
price in India has fallen to a 2.5-month low
recently on easing freight rates, and buyers
may now hold back spot purchases if they could
as they expect freight rates to undergo further
downward correction.
INSIGHT: China PP exports to seek other outlets
amid intense competition in southeast
Asia
By Lucy Shuai 27-Aug-24 17:34 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–As China’s polypropylene (PP) capacity
increases and a weak economy drags down demand,
the imbalance between supply and demand has
intensified and China’s PP exports have surged.
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