HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 20 June. Colombia’s fiscal issues could hit plastics amid relentless China competition pressures Colombia’s plastics industry is managing to navigate through a turbulent period for the country’s macroeconomics and growing at over 3%, but the cabinet’s fiscal issues and intensifying Chinese imports pose risks, according to the president of trade group Acoplasticos. US PP recycler PureCycle to reach 1 billion lb/year capacity by 2030 PureCycle plans to reach 1 billion lb/year (454,000 tonnes/year) of capacity in the US by 2030, Europe and Asia, the US-base recycler of polypropylene (PP) said on Tuesday. Petchems spreads may be lower for longer post downturn, now expected to stretch to 2028 – Fitch The global petrochemicals downturn could potentially stretch to 2028, but the years-long crisis due to overcapacities may leave a lasting mark – lower for longer margins, according to a chemicals analyst at credit rating agency Fitch. Global PVC market braces for glut as protectionism rises and demand falters The global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is poised for a significant supply surplus, primarily driven by a surge in Chinese exports and an increasingly protectionist international trade environment, an industry analyst said on Thursday. Mexico’s chemicals imports increasingly hit by customs rules, adding to Manzanillo port crisis woes Mexico’s Port of Manzanillo is gradually recovering cargo handling capacity, which currently stands at around 60% of normal levels, according to the port’s authority, after weeks of operational disruptions caused by customs delays.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The growing conflict over Iran’s nuclear program is part of a larger trend of heightened geopolitical risk that will likely persist for years, increasing costs for chemical companies while lowering growth. Geopolitical and trade conflicts are making supply chains less resilient and more costly. Conflict is increasing uncertainty, which is causing companies and consumers to delay investments and purchases. Conflict creates its own feedback loop by making escalation more likely, which contributes to more uncertainty and volatility. VOLATILITY IS HERE TO STAYIan Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group consultancy, talked about conflicts and geopolitical risk prior to the Iranian conflict at the annual meeting held earlier in June by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Bremmer’s comments were timely and prescient, because he stressed that geopolitical risk has increased. A little more than a week after he spoke, Israel launched its attack on Iran. The US later attacked multiple nuclear sites in Iran. “The geopolitical volatility we’re facing right now is deep, it’s structural, and it’s going to be with us for probably a decade or more,” Bremmer said. “This is going to be a very fraught geopolitical environment, and that will lead to greater costs for all of your industries, all of your companies.” Already, conflicts have reached their highest level since the end of the Second World War, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. The following chart shows the number of state-based conflicts by level of intensity. Recent conflicts include the following: Yemen Civil War Myanmar Civil War Russia and Ukraine Israel and Hamas in Gaza Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon India and Pakistan Ethiopian conflicts Conflicts in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo WHY CONFLICTS ARE HERE TO STAYBremmer gave three reasons why conflicts are becoming more common and why risk will remain heightened. Russia was never integrated into the West following the collapse of the Soviet Union, he said. China’s economic and diplomatic integration took place while it maintained one-party rule and a state-driven economy, Bremmer said. In the past 10 years, China’s economy has become more state driven. “The West, and especially the United States, is deeply unhappy about that,” Bremmer said. “And that creates major conflict between the two most important economies in the world.” In Bremmer’s opinion, the most important reason behind the increase in geopolitical risk is the lack of confidence that US voters have in their traditional elites. That leadership includes the political class as well as the media, universities, bankers and corporations. This loss of confidence among US voters has caused weakening support for global causes traditionally supported by the country, such as promoting collective security, global trade, the rule of law and democracy, Bremmer said. These three trends have been building up for years, and it will take years for them to sort themselves out, Bremmer said. CONFLICT RAISES COSTS, SLOWS GROWTH FOR CHEMSBy their nature, conflicts make markets less accessible. A nation under fire cannot readily import or export goods and services. Chemical companies lose access to lower cost energy, feedstock, equipment and raw materials. Similarly, they lose access to their most attractive export markets. Tensions and conflicts sever global supply chains. Their replacements are more regional and more resilient but also more costly because they lack economies of scale and, often, less expensive labor and raw materials. Conflicts make trade sanctions and tariffs more likely. Conflict creates uncertainty, which discourages companies and consumers from making investments and buying goods. In fact, US chemical companies have said that the biggest effect of recent tariffs has not been the actual duties but the uncertainty about how long they will last and whether more tariffs will be imposed. Conflict can influence oil prices, especially when the source of those tensions is in crude-producing countries and regions like Russia and the Middle East. Chemical prices tend to rise and fall with those for oil. The conflict over Iran’s nuclear program has raised questions about whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz. DISRUPTIONS CAUSED BY WAR BETWEEN IRAN, ISRAELWith that, chemical companies can expect more of the disruptions that have characterized the war between Iran and Israel. Israeli attacks on Iran’s gas field in South Pars caused that country to shut down millions of tonnes of methanol capacity. That reduced Iranian methanol shipments to China, which used the chemical as a feedstock to make olefins. Higher methanol costs have raised Chinese prices of acetic acid. Iran also shut down its ethylene glycol (EG), ammonia and urea plants for safety reasons. Israel’s BAZAN Group had shut down all operations at its refinery and its subsidiaries at its complex in Haifa Bay after a missile attack, according to S&P Global Ratings. The conflict caused Israel to suspend gas shipments to Egypt, which led to shutdowns of a chlor-alkali plant, some polyethylene (PE) lines and urea production. After US attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, its parliament has expressed support for closing the Strait of Hormuz, according to media reports. If Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, that would not only restrict oil exports from Gulf nations, it would also restrict petrochemical exports from Kuwait and other Gulf nations as well as Qatari exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). China’s fleet of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units relies on imports of LPG for feedstock, and Qatar is among the world’s largest exporters. Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows an Iranian missile in Israel. Image by ATEF SAFADI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock.

ICIS data shows Qatar, UAE LNG production in line with normal range Growing focus on Iran’s Hormuz Strait closure rhetoric Over 80% of Qatari LNG goes to Asia but highly relevant for Europe LONDON (ICIS)–LNG production from Qatar and the UAE – the two countries that sit the other side of the Strait of Hormuz from global buyers – continues as normal, according to ICIS data. Disruption to shipping signals is making the accurate tracking of LNG vessels harder, and more ballast Qatari vessels are waiting east of Hormuz than normal before going to Ras Laffan to load. ICIS data on Monday 23 June showed that 43 vessels had loaded from Ras Laffan in the last 15 days, unchanged from the same period last year. This is down by one from the previous 15-day period, but this is not an unusual deviation given the scale of 77.4mtpa production. A total of four cargoes loaded from the UAE’s Das Island over the past 15 days, up by one from last year, down by one from the previous 15 days, according to ICIS data. ICIS analysts have observed a number of vessels near Qatar registering false positions via their AIS signal data. But ICIS identified the laden 138,000cbm Disha as having crossed Hormuz east on Sunday 22 June, as well as the 152,000cbm Al Areesh and the 174,000cbm Al Sakhamah. The 138,000cbm Raahi appears to have crossed west in ballast on 23 June. KEY LNG TRADE FLOWS Global gas and LNG spot prices have moved up since early June due to growing security concerns in the Middle East, and are back to the highest levels since February. While the TTF now reacts immediately to major geo-political news given the depth of market participants, liquidity, and Europe’s dependency on LNG imports, East Asian spot LNG pricing remains less liquid, and highly influenced by the European market. That said, the ICIS East Asia Index remains at a volatile premium to the TTF, despite limited new LNG demand signals from Asian buyers. Since the start of 2024, 82% of Qatari LNG has gone to Asian markets, according to ICIS data, with Europe now accounting for a much smaller share. Rising US LNG production has stepped in to dominate Europe’s LNG supply. The UK, for example, now imports much more from the US than it does from Qatar. Major LNG buyers continue to analyse potential risks to current supply from the Middle East situation, and are well aware of the impact even a small reduction in Qatari deliveries would have. While this would hit Asian buyers most directly, it would also impact European markets if higher Asian spot prices pulled US LNG away from Europe. BULLISH PRICES An Asian price premium of up to $0.50/MMBtu to the TTF – typical of the last month – would likely mean sufficient US LNG flows to both Europe and Asia to cover demand and reflects a reasonably well-balanced market. In the event of a cut in supply to Asia, the EAX would rise, taking the TTF with it given Europe’s dependency on LNG. The Asian premium to TTF would likely need to rise to at least $2/MMBtu to pull much larger volumes of US LNG away from Europe. Further TTF price rises would filter through across European energy markets. In Asia, most LNG is still sold on an oil price link which is currently well below spot prices – although oil prices would naturally also be impacted by Hormuz disruption. It is unlikely, however, that outright gas and LNG prices would substantially deviate between the two regions as both would compete for cargoes. Higher spot LNG prices would also dent demand from many Asian buyers. Any extended closure of Hormuz appears highly unlikely given likely pressure that would come from major economic and military powers against Iran. But even short-term disruption could lift LNG and gas prices and lead to significant scrambling from sellers and buyers needing to use all available optimization and risk management tools at their disposal. Alex Froley contributed to this story

LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which suggests it would be prudent to plan for further escalation of the trade and military wars in H2. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

LONDON (ICIS)–Eurozone business activity rose slightly in June from the previous month with growth centred on manufacturing, where production increased for the fourth successive month. The eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was unchanged from May at 50.2 points, while the business activity PMI rose to a two-month high at 50.0 points, according to flash data from S&P Global and the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB). A reading above 50 indicates expansion and below 50 contraction. “Overall growth was again centered on the manufacturing sector,” S&P said in a statement. “That said, the rate of expansion in June was slight, having eased to a three-month low.” The group’s manufacturing output index fell to 51 points in June from 51.5 in May, while the manufacturing index was unchanged at 49.4 points. “The eurozone economy is struggling to gain momentum. For six months now, growth has been minimal, with activity in the service sector stagnating and manufacturing output rising only moderately,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 20 June. Shipping, crude hikes eyed by Europe PE, PP as Israel-Iran conflict escalatesShipping and crude oil costs are the biggest concerns for European polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) players in the wake of the latest Israel-Iran attacks which saw oil benchmarks rocket 7% on 13 June. Brent crude was trading above $75/barrel on Monday. Turkey PE spot prices dipping on slow restart post-Eid, logistics in Persian Gulf monitoredTurkish polyethylene (PE) prices were largely stable to soft last week, despite a pick up in momentum for the low density PE (LDPE) grade, as food and beverage packaging production gears up for the peak tourist season which starts next month. Westlake Epoxy to close its entire Pernis operationsWestlake Epoxy plans to close its entire Pernis site, including liquid epoxy resins, bisphenol A (BPA), allyl chloride (AC) and epichlorohydrin (ECH) operations in 2025, according to a company statement on 17 June. INSIGHT: Israel-Iran conflict forces chemicals closures, tightens regional supplyThe Israel-Iran conflict is already impacting important parts of Iran’s chemical sector as the country’s entire monoethylene glycol (MEG), urea and ammonia capacities have been shut down along with most methanol plants, with repercussions for global markets. INSIGHT: High UK PE production costs drive prices down and turmoil upThe UK remains the lowest price region across Europe for polyethylene (PE) and this appears to highlight struggles affecting many players in the country. Ammonia offers to rise as supply tightens on Israel-Iran conflictAmmonia supply is expected to tighten following the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel this week.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–New ICIS-linked Asia methanol derivatives contracts will start trading on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) on 14 July. The new futures/swap contracts on a cost-and-freight (CFR) basis will be for the key regional trading hubs of China (specific origins) and southeast Asia, SGX said. SGX will list 24 consecutive contract months starting with the July 2025 contract. The minimum lot size for the CFR China (specific origins) and CFR southeast Asia contracts will be 100 tonnes for the futures and 500 tonnes for the swap, SGX said. The final settlement price (FSP) for the contracts will be the arithmetic average of all weekly ICIS index assessments in the expiring contract month for the relevant underlying product, SGX said in a statement on 20 June. “The ICIS-linked contracts will provide investors with more comprehensive risk management solutions particularly at a time of greater market volatility,” said Peh Soo Hwee, ICIS managing editor for Asia and the Middle East. Methanol is a vital building block chemical with applications ranging from formaldehyde and acetic acid production to emerging uses in marine fuels and power generation.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s petrochemical shares dipped while oil prices rose on Monday, after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising fears of retaliation from Tehran which could disrupt global oil supplies. Markets’ reactions contained, so far Iran parliament approves closure of Strait of Hormuz Oil prices may hit $100-150/barrel in worst-case scenario – DBS Bank At 03:20 GMT, Japanese Asahi Kasei was down by 0.62%, while Mitsui Chemicals declined by 1.62% in Tokyo; South Korean LG Chem was down by 4.61% in Seoul; and Chinese oil major PetroChina slipped by 0.3% in Hong Kong. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Index was down by 0.59% at 38,175.63; South Korea’s KOSPI Composite index fell by 0.64% to 3,002.51; and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was down by 0.09% at 23,510.02. With investors awaiting Iran’s potential retaliation, early market reactions were contained, with Brent rising by around 1.5% at 03:42 GMT, well off its initial peaks. Product (at 03:42 GMT) in $/barrel Latest Previous Change Brent August 78.16 77.01 1.15 WTI August 75.75 73.84 1.91 Both Brent and US WTI futures jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40/bbl and $78.40/bbl, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains. Oil prices have surged since Israel struck nuclear sites in Iran on 13 June, and continuing to rise amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, with concerns centering on Iran’s possible blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for energy trades. Asia’s status as a significant net oil and energy importer means that most of the economies in the region such as Thailand, South Korea the Philippines and India, are vulnerable to oil price shocks. Following the US’ strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend, Iran’s Parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, but some shipping majors’ vessels continue to sail through the crucial energy trade lane amid growing security risks. According to Iran Press TV, after the parliament vote, the final decision by Iran on Hormuz’s closure will be left to the country’s Supreme National Security Council. US President Donald Trump on 22 June announced on social media that US forces had conducted “very successful” strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump also warned Iran against retaliation, mentioning there are more targets left for the US to target if Iran does so. “There will be considerable uncertainty as to what happens next, leading to high volatility in oil prices in coming days and weeks. As to what next, all depends on how Iran responds,” Singapore’s DBS Bank said in a note on Monday. DBS projects that under a “worst-case scenario”, near-term oil prices could surge up to $100-150/barrel if blockage of Strait of Hormuz materializes. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for around 20-25% of global oil trade and 20-30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. With continued escalation in the conflict, tighter sanctions on Iranian oil exports are possible, which could reduce global oil supplies by up to 1.5 million barrels per day and raise fears of market disruption, it said. For now, it remains to be seen how Iran will respond to the US strikes. Iran’s foreign minister said on 22 June that the Islamic Republic reserves “all options” to defend its sovereignty. “Moving forward, the degree of potential upside risks to oil prices is dependent on the extent of disruptions to global oil and energy productions and supplies,” Japan-based analysts at MUFG Research said in a note. “While it is possible for shipments to be rerouted through alternative pipelines, the extent is overall limited in a scenario of full disruption of the Strait of Hormuz,” it said. MUFG noted that elevated global oil inventories, available spare capacity by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+), and US shale production could all provide some buffer. “However, a full closure of the Hormuz Strait would still impact on the accessibility of a major part of this spare production capacity concentrated in the Persian Gulf.” Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Additional reporting by Jonathan Yee Visit the ICIS Topic Page: Israel-Iran conflict: impact on chemical and energy markets Thumbnail image: Tehran, Iran on 16 June 2025 (ABEDIN TAHERKENAREH/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices surged in early Asian trade on Monday, with Brent crude briefly crossing $81/barrel before easing, after the US bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities, raising fears of retaliation from Tehran via striking energy infrastructure in the Middle East or by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices in $/barrel Product Latest (as of 01:27 GMT) Previous Change Brent August 78.95 77.01 1.94 WTI August 75.75 73.84 1.91 Both Brent and US WTI futures jumped by more than 3% earlier in the session to $81.40/bbl and $78.40/bbl, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains. US President Donald Trump on 22 June announced on social media that the US has bombed nuclear sites in Iran in a “very successful military operation”. It remains to be seen how Iran will respond to the unprecedented US strikes. Iran’s foreign minister said on 22 June that the Islamic Republic reserves “all options” to defend its sovereignty. Investors’ focus is now on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for around 20-25% of global oil trade and 20-30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. “Moving forward, the degree of potential upside risks to oil prices is dependent on the extent of disruptions to global oil and energy productions and supplies,” Japan-based analysts at MUFG Research said in a note. Thumbnail image: Protest against US President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, Washington, US – 22 June 2025 (JIM LO SCALZO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)