LONDON (ICIS)–OCI Global has secured US regulatory clearance for the $2.05 billion sale of its methanol business to Methanex, representing the last approval needed for the deal to move forward, the Netherlands-based producer said on Thursday. Methanex had originally agreed to acquire the business in September 2024, encompassing OCI’s Us and European methanol production assets. The deal is expected to close on 27 June, subject to closing conditions, OCI said. Under the definitive agreement with OCI, the $2.05 billion purchase price will consist of $1.15 billion in cash, the issuance of 9.9 million common shares of Methanex valued at $450 million – based on a $45 per share price – and the assumption of $450 million in debt and leases. OCI is expected to become the second largest shareholder in Methanex following the transaction, owning about 13% of its shares. The company’s methanol arm operates a facility in Beaumont, Texas, with annual production capacity of 910,000 tonnes of methanol and 340,000 tonnes of ammonia, as well as s 50% interest in another Beaumont site co-run with Proman. The deal also includes a 1 million tonne/year methanol facility in Delfzijl, Netherlands, currently not in production due to unfavourable natural gas pricing, and OCI’s HyFuels business.

LONDON (ICIS)–After two years of decline, Germany’s GDP could start growing again in 2025, economic research institutes said on Thursday. Although the trade and tariff conflicts are still weighing on export demand, billions of euros of planned government spending on infrastructure and defense would start supporting growth, they said. “Leading indicators support our view that, after two years of contraction, the industrial sector has reached the trough, albeit at a low level,” said Stefan Kooths, head of forecasting at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel). The recovery would be largely driven by domestic factors, with private consumption and corporate investment picking up after a two-year drought, he said. IfW Kiel noted that “significantly greater fiscal room” for the new federal government under Chancellor Friedrich Merz should help drive growth. Germany recently amended its constitution to enable more debt-financed spending. IfW Kiel revised its GDP growth forecast for Europe’s largest economy to 0.3% for 2025, from its previous expectation of zero growth, and for 2026 it expects GDP growth of 1.6%. However, it warned that the “erratic” US tariff policy was fueling uncertainty for Germany’s foreign trade. In addition, German exporters were hampered by “significantly reduced competitiveness”, it said. Another institute, ifo Munich, now forecasts 0.3% GDP growth in 2025, up from its earlier 0.2% projection, and it predicts 1.5% growth for 2026, up from its previous 0.8% assessment. After reaching its low point in the winter, Germany’s economy is now set for a “growth spurt”, partly driven by the government fiscal measures, ifo said. However, like IfW Kiel, ifo warned of the risks posed by US trade policies. The US import tariffs already imposed – and assuming they remain at the current level – would impact Germany’s economic growth by 0.1 percentage points in 2025 and 0.3 percentage points in 2026, ifo said. If a US-EU trade agreement is reached, growth in Germany could be higher, whereas an escalation could lead to a renewed recession, ifo said. A third institute, the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), said if the US does not escalate its trade conflicts further, Germany’s GDP could grow by 0.4% in 2025, up from IWH’s previous 0.1% growth forecast. IWH also noted that the slow licensing for exports of rare earths from China has led to a shortage that is threatening production in parts of Germany’s manufacturing industry. In Germany’s chemical industry, producers’ trade group VCI currently expects chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) to fall by 2.0% this year. Please also visit US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy Thumbnail photo of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (Source: Christian Democratic Union party)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Researchers at Colorado State University’s Weather and Climate Research department maintained their prediction of an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with a probability that 33% of major storms could make landfall in the US Gulf. The CSU team predicts 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on 1 June and runs through 30 November. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength of Category 3 or higher. Hurricanes are rated using the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, numbered from 1 to 5, based on a hurricane’s maximum sustained wind speeds, with a Category 5 storm being the strongest. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale Category Wind speed 1 74-95 miles/hour 2 96-110 miles/hour 3 111-129 miles/hour 4 130-156 miles/hour 5 157+ miles/hour While still very early in the season, researchers said it is showing characteristics as seen in 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, and 2021. In 1996, there were six major hurricanes, which was the most since 1950, but none entered the US Gulf. In 1999, five storms reached Category 4, with none threatening the US Gulf. Storms in both years made landfall on the US East Coast in North Carolina. Hurricane Ike, one of five major hurricanes in 2008, made landfall in Galveston near the entrance to the Houston Ship Channel, causing chemical plants and refineries in the region to struggle to restart. Hurricane Irene was the only hurricane to make landfall in 2011, striking near Cape Lookout, North Carolina. It was one of seven hurricanes that season, of which four became major hurricanes. In 2021, there were 21 named storms with seven becoming hurricanes, four of which were major storms and several entered the US Gulf. Hurricane Ida was the most destructive, making landfall in Louisiana and leading to many plant shutdowns. The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025: 51% for the entire US coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%) 26% for the US East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%) 33% for the US Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%) 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47% Hurricanes directly affect the chemical industry because plants and refineries shut down in preparation for the storms, and they sometimes remain down because of damage. Power outages can last for days or weeks. Hurricanes shut down ports, railroads and highways, which can prevent operating plants from receiving feedstock or shipping out products. Most US petrochemical plants and refineries are on the Gulf Coast states of Texas and Louisiana, making them prone to hurricanes. Other plants and refineries are scattered farther east in the states of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida – a peninsula that is also a hub for phosphate production and fertilizer logistics. Additional reporting by Al Greenwood

Egypt continues to ramp up LNG imports as it lines up long-term LNG import capacity Tenders could tighten the LNG balance, but Egypt has a pattern of overbuying Egypt is also in ongoing discussions to secure LNG supplies from 2025-2028 LONDON (ICIS)–Egypt is ramping up its demand for LNG imports, with a consequential impact on the global LNG market. Egypt has swung back to being an LNG importer over the last year. It is already seeking a high number of cargoes this year, as well as planning further imports between now and 2028. Following a deal with majors TotalEnergies and Shell earlier this year, its demand may be here to stay. “They initially [tendered for] over 100 cargoes, then it turned out to be 40-60 cargoes,” one source said, while two other sources said around 40 cargoes were awarded. Concerns about the potential market price impact prompted Egypt to lower the number of cargoes it sought in its most recent tender, the source added. With the previous 60 cargoes from TotalEnergies and Shell, total 2025 demand could be around 100-120 cargoes, or around 7.0-8.4 million tonnes of LNG – a significant increase in both volume and pace compared with 2024. This comes as Egypt is in ongoing discussions to buy LNG supplies from 2025 to 2028, sources said, with one saying that state-owned EGAS has received 14 offers for supply ranging from 18 months to three years. The cargoes in the latest 40-60 cargo tender were heard awarded to Vitol, Shell, Hartree, Aramco and “a few others” at a premium of around $0.70/MMBtu to the benchmark TTF. The premium reflects the country’s credit risk and a nine-month deferred payment profile, one trader said, which is longer than the six-month deferred payment scheme seen in previous Egyptian tenders. “For Egypt, buyers need FOB cargoes, so there is a natural premium to be paid in exchange for losing flexibility,” a second trader said. TIGHTER COMPETITION Egyptian demand is expected to peak in summer, when gas-for-power demand is higher due to higher cooling needs. “Total Egyptian demand this year is estimated to be 110 cargoes,” one trader said, which would equate to around 7.7 million tonnes of LNG. Another trader said that spot LNG discounts into northwest Europe could narrow further following the Egyptian tender. “I think the [Egyptian tender] will make the market tighter than expected. I expect the discounts in Europe to narrow,” the trader said. A third trader said European LNG spot discounts for July-August deliveries had already narrowed slightly off the back of the Egyptian and Argentinean buy tenders, although further feedback this week suggests discounts are so far stable. The global LNG market is expected to face a shortfall of 2.1 million tonnes over the summer, according to ICIS LNG Foresight, while 2025 as a whole is projected to be oversupplied by 3 million tonnes. However, according to traders, it is challenging to say if the Egyptian tenders have been fully priced into the market due to Egypt’s option to push back or divert cargoes, potentially easing the call on LNG. Some contracted cargoes for Q4 2024 were pushed back to Q1 2025 or diverted due to lower-than-anticipated demand. “I am thinking that maybe their pattern is always to overbuy. If no prompt demand, they will defer [the cargoes],” one source said. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi recently directed the government to “pre-emptively take whatever needs necessary to ensure stable electricity flow”. One report said that Egypt is negotiating to import 160 shipments through June 2026, which would represent another step up in imports from the current pace and increase. This comes as Egypt has also stepped up imports of cheaper energy, securing one million tonnes of fuel oil for delivery in May and June to restart its legacy power stations over the summer. Ultimately, spot LNG demand versus supply will be key in determining competitiveness between hubs in the short term. Asian demand has been low this year, especially Chinese demand, with sufficient pipeline gas in China denting downstream LNG demand. LONG-TERM LNG IMPORT CAPACITY Cairo’s latest moves to secure long-term import capacity provide further evidence that it sees domestic gas output remaining at low levels for the foreseeable future. ICIS senior LNG analyst Alex Froley said that Egypt’s flip from a mid-sized exporter to a significant importer has happened quickly. “Even those expecting an increase in imports would have been unlikely to factor in the country hiring as many as four FSRUs in a short space of time,” he said. The Energos Eskimo FSRU recently departed Jordan’s Aqaba terminal as it prepares to begin a new 10-year charter with Egypt’s EGAS, ICIS data shows. The unit is expected to undergo some modifications before starting operations later this summer, one broker said. Energos Eskimo will join the existing Hoegh Galleon FSRU off Egypt, while the Energos Power FSRU and a BOTAS-chartered FSRU are also expected to be deployed soon. FUNDING GAP NARROWS Traders have questioned how Egypt can afford the number of tendered LNG cargoes, given its reliance on Saudi Arabia and Libya to pay for previous cargoes. This financial challenge, compounded by years of sluggish growth, is reflected in the consistent premiums that Egypt has had to pay in its LNG buy tenders. However, local urea producers have ramped up output and exports again in early June, an important source of foreign exchange, following periods of gas shortages. Egypt has also taken further steps to cover part of its funding gap, securing a $1.2 billion disbursement from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January. In May, the European Parliament reached a provisional agreement to provide €4 billion in macro-financial assistance to Egypt. Together with the IMF programme for the 2024-2027 period, the assistance would help Egypt cover “part of its external funding gap”, the Parliament said. Additional reporting by Clare Pennington

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADNOC L&S) on Wednesday said that it has entered into a $531-million strategic partnership with polyolefins major Borouge to boost UAE’s production and export of petrochemicals. As part of the partnership, Borouge has awarded ADNOC L&S a 15-year contract to manage logistics on up to 70% of its annual production, “which will increase significantly following the completion of the Borouge 4 plant expansion”, ADNOC L&S said in a filing on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX). ADNOC L&S is a unit of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), which holds a 54% stake in Borouge. Borouge operates an integrated polyolefin complex at Al Ruwais Industrial City in Abu Dhabi. “As Borouge plans to ramp up production capacity by 1.4 million tonnes/year by the end of 2026 through its Borouge 4 mega project, Borouge will become the world’s largest single-site polyolefin complex,” it said. The agreement covers port management, container handling, and feeder container ship services for the Borouge container terminal in Al Ruwais Industrial City. ADNOC L&S will deploy a minimum of two dedicated container feeder ships to transport Borouge’s products from Al Ruwais to the deepwater ports of Jebel Ali in Dubai and Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi. “The mutually beneficial service agreement will deliver a minimum guaranteed value of $531m, supporting the next phase of Borouge’s accelerated growth plans, driving operational cost savings over the full contract term,” it said. The deal could lead to more than $50 million in cost savings and efficiencies for Borouge in the first five years alone enhancing the company’s supply chain network, the company added. ADNOC L&S’ integrated logistics capabilities include managing container terminal operations, feeder services, and logistics solutions to meet increasing global demand. Borouge is involved in an upcoming merger with Austria’s Borealis and Canadian producer Nova Chemicals which is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India is currently planning green hydrogen initiatives worth around Indian rupees (Rs) 2 trillion ($23 billion), which include tenders for 42,000 tonne/year green hydrogen production by domestic oil refineries. Indian Oil eyes Dec ’27 start-up for 10,000 tonne/year Panipat hydrogen unit Two green ammonia projects start construction in Odisha Pilot projects initiated for hydrogen-powered heavy vehicles “Tenders for the production of 42,000 tonne/year have been floated by the refineries while 128 more will be issued by state-owned refineries based on the outcome of those tenders,” Indian petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri had said in a post on social media platform X on 6 June. As part of the initiative, nine research and development (R&D) or demo plants are under construction and four have been commissioned by state-owned Indian Oil Corp (IOC), Gail India Ltd, Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd (HPCL), and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), he added. IOC, which is currently building India’s largest green hydrogen plant with a 10,000 tonne/year capacity at its Panipat Refinery Complex, expects to begin operations at the plant by December 2027, the company had said on 30 May. Once operational, the plant will “replace fossil-derived hydrogen in refinery operations, resulting in substantial reduction in carbon emissions”, IOC added. Separately, construction work has begun on two green hydrogen and green ammonia projects at the Gopalpur industrial park in the eastern Odisha state. Hygenco Green Energies Ltd plans to invest Rs40 billion to build a 1.1 million tonne/year green ammonia plant at Gopalpur in three phases. It expects to complete the first phase by 2027. UAE-based Ocior Energy, meanwhile, is building a 1 million tonne/year green hydrogen and green ammonia plant at the Gopalpur industrial park at a cost of Rs72 billion, Odisha’s state government announced. A 200,000 tonne/year plant will be built in the first phase of operations by 2028, and a much bigger 800,000 tonne/year unit will be completed by 2030 in the eastern Indian state, according to Ocior’s website. The Gopalpur Industrial Park will also house the ACME Green Hydrogen’s green ammonia project, as well as a 1,500 tonne/day green ammonia project being set up by the Avaada Group. Separately, in a bid to grow India’s green hydrogen infrastructure, the central government also aims to decarbonize its transport sector through the introduction of hydrogen-powered trucks and buses. The government expects to commission five pilot projects for running these hydrogen-powered vehicles by 2027, according to National Green Hydrogen Mission (NGHM) director Abhay Bakre. In March 2025, the government initiated these pilot projects with participation from private firms such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) as well as state-owned IOC, HPCL and BPCL, among others. As part of the project, the pilot routes have been mapped out on 10 routes across the country with nine hydrogen refuelling stations. The government plans to deploy around 1,000 hydrogen-powered trucks and buses by 2030, NGHM’s Bakre said. The government expects to get “almost 50 trucks and buses running this year”, he said, adding that the numbers would increase further next year. While automakers such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra, Hyundai have announced plans to develop hydrogen-powered vehicles, companies such as RIL, BPCL, IOC plan to create green hydrogen refuelling infrastructure. Launched in 2023, NGHM with an initial allocation of $2.4 billion, targets to have a minimum hydrogen production capacity of 5 million tonne/year by 2030. Since 2023, the government has allocated 862,000 tonne/year production capacity to 19 companies. ($1 = Rs85.60) Focus article by Priya Jestin

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Economic growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is projected to slow from 5% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 on escalating global trade tensions and related increases in policy uncertainty, the World Bank said on 10 June. Trade openness exposes EAP economies to policy shifts China’s growth outlook unchanged at 4.5%; projected to slow through 2027 Global 2025 growth cut to 2.3%; slowest since 2008 The global lender had earlier in January projected a 4.6% growth for the EAP region’s economy. “Due to their high trade openness, EAP economies are more exposed to trade policy shifts,” the World Bank said in its June Global Economic Prospects report. “The downgrade reflects the impact of higher tariffs on growth, which is expected to be partly offset by policy support measures in EAP economies, notably China.” CHINA’S GROWTH TO SLOWChina’s growth is expected to decelerate to 4.5% in 2025, unchanged with the prior forecast made in January, as “fiscal support [is] assumed to offset the impact of trade tensions with the US – China’s largest market for exports,” the World Bank said. China’s economy expanded by 5% in 2024. A soft labor market and subdued property sector in China are expected to weigh on consumption, though cushioned by fiscal stimulus. China’s growth is forecast at 4% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027, “in line with decelerating potential output growth, reflecting the effects of slowing productivity growth, an aging population, and high debt levels,” the World Bank said. For the EAP region excluding China, growth is expected to ease to 4.2% this year, mainly due to trade tensions. Increased trade policy uncertainty, reduced confidence, and spillovers from softer external demand in major advanced economies and China are likely to curtail exports and private investment in the region. East Asian economies are particularly vulnerable to heightened uncertainty “because of their relatively larger exposure to trade and, therefore, higher shares of investment in GDP,” the World Bank said. Economies with large export-oriented manufacturing sectors, including China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, are particularly exposed. While some economies will benefit from fiscal policy support – like social spending and public investment in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam – “the full macroeconomic effects of higher trade barriers, which are hard to predict, could weigh on growth,” the World Bank cautioned. Looking ahead, EAP growth is forecast to remain subdued at 4% in both 2026 and 2027 as the outlook for the region faces primarily downside risks, with persistent policy uncertainty and potential escalation of trade tensions being key concerns. Other significant risks include tighter global financial conditions, spillovers from weaker growth in major economies, heightened geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters. On the upside, a partial resolution of trade tensions and reduced policy uncertainty would likely boost regional growth prospects above the baseline. More expansionary fiscal policy in China or major advanced economies could support faster-than-expected activity. Additionally, surging digital investment and technological adoption could boost productivity growth, as “major economies in the region rank high in terms of readiness for AI adoption, which could underpin stronger-than-expected regional growth,” the World Bank added. GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST SLASHEDThe global growth forecast for 2025 has been cut by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, marking the slowest rate of global growth since 2008, aside from outright global recessions. By 2027, global GDP growth is expected to average just 2.5%, the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s, the global lender warned. Global trade is projected to expand by 1.8% in 2025, a notable slowdown from 3.4% in 2024 and significantly below the 5.9% average seen in the 2000s. This forecast includes tariffs implemented through late May, such as the 10% US tariff on imports from most countries, but does not include tariff hikes announced by US President Donald Trump in April and later delayed until 9 July for negotiations. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Arrivals of container ships fell in May at the US West Coast ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) amid a trade war between the US and China but has shown a slight uptick in June while the two nations continue to negotiate a trade deal. Kip Louttit, executive director of the Marine Exchange of Southern California (MESC), said the ports of LA/LB, said May container ship arrivals were at 5.0/day, slightly below the 5.7/day that was the average prior to the pandemic. Through the first five days of June, arrivals are at 5.6/day, which is still slightly below the pre-pandemic norm. Import cargo at the nation’s major container ports is expected to surge in the near term amid a pause in reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates as shown in the following chart. NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said this is the busiest time of the year for US retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season. “Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs,” Gold said. “They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.” Gold said many retailers suspended or canceled orders after US President Donald Trump announced a 145% tariff on China in April but have resumed imports after tariffs were reduced to 30% and a 90-day pause that will last until 12 August was announced. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until 9 July as the administration negotiates with those countries. ASIA-US RATES SURGE Rates for shipping containers from Asia to the US have spiked over the past couple of weeks – and have almost doubled over the past four weeks – as demand has surged ahead of the possible reinstatement of tariffs while capacity remains tight. Rates from supply chain advisors showed drastic increases over the past two weeks, and weekly rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos came out today with Asia-USWC rates at $5,488/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) and at $6,410/FEU to the East Coast. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Offshore potash marketing group Canpotex announced it is fully committed on volumes for potash sales through 30 September. The group said this is due to continued strong demand for potash, underpinned by solid fundamentals for agricultural commodities and a sustained focus on food security in many of Canpotex’s key markets. Canpotex is the offshore marketing company for Saskatchewan potash producers Nutrien and Mosaic and has been operating since 1972.