HOUSTON (ICIS)–European ethylene producers could be planning more cracker shutdowns, with the lost capacity being replaced by imports from the US. US ethylene export capacity is being expanded. Midstream companies are adding more US capacity to process the feedstock used to make ethylene. Outside of chemical feedstock, midstream companies see potential growth from energy demand from data centers. EUROPE MAY SHUT DOWN MORE CRACKERSUS-based midstream company and ethylene exporter Enterprise Products hinted that more shutdowns were possible beyond the ones announced this year by ExxonMobil, SABIC and Versalis. “We’ve heard from a lot of the chemical companies that they are doing strategic reviews of their European assets,” said Christopher D’Anna, senior vice president, petrochemicals. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. “So, we expect to see some closures, and we expect that to lead to additional ethylene exports going that way,” D’Anna said. Among the region’s crackers that rely predominantly on naphtha, most produce less than 700,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, which prevents them from benefiting from economies of scale, according to ICIS data. Europe’s elevated energy costs pile on the problems faced by these smaller naphtha crackers. US INCREASING ETHYLENE EXPORT CAPACITYUS ethylene exports surged in 2020 after Enterprise Products and Navigator Gas started shipping material out of their joint venture terminal at Morgan’s Point, Texas. That terminal can export 1 million tonnes/year of ethylene. By the end of 2024, the two will complete an expansion project that can handle ethane or ethylene. If dedicated to ethylene, the expansion can export up to 500,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, bringing the total to 1.5 million tonnes/year. By the end of 2025, Enterprise and Navigator will complete another expansion at Morgan’s Point, which will add even more flexible capacity. If dedicated to ethylene, this expansion could export up to 1.5 million tonnes/year of ethylene. In all, the Morgan’s Point terminal could export up to 3 million tonnes/year of ethylene if it chooses to dedicate all of its flexible capacity to ethylene. As new Enterprise ethane capacity comes online during 2025 and 2026, additional flex train capacity can be utilized for ethylene. In addition, Navigator has ordered two carriers that can each carry 48,500 cubic meters of liquid ethylene, with delivery scheduled for March 2027 and July 2027. The carriers have the flexibility to carry ethane, ammonia or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). EXPORTS AND US ETHYLENE BALANCEIf Enterprise and Navigator decide to maximize ethylene exports at its Morgan’s Point terminal, it would likely tighten the US market, since the new crackers being proposed and built are integrated with downstream units. But D’Anna’s comments raises an interesting scenario. Europe may be willing to import ethylene to preserve its downstream units and its manufacturing base. In the future, US chemical producers could add ethylene capacity to serve a global ethylene market. Growing supplies of low-cost feedstock ethane in the US could make such a global ethylene market possible. ETHANE SUPPLIES CONTINUE GROWING IN THE USEthane produced from natural gas processing plants should reach 2.74 million bbl/day in 2025, steady from 2024, according to the Short Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). US oil and natural gas production should also continue increasing, with oil reaching 13.54 million bbl/day in 2025, and dry natural gas reaching 104.62 billion cubic feet/day, according to the EIA. As oil and natural gas production is set to rise steadily over the next two years, ethane output from processing plants is also projected to increase, according to Kojo Orgle, feedstock analyst for ICIS. Orgle monitors the US markets for ethane and other petrochemical feedstock. With limited growth in domestic ethane consumption as a petrochemical feedstock, additional supply will need to be directed toward exports. Consequently, the ethane market will rely heavily on expansions in US waterborne NGL export capacity. Ethane supplies hit record highs this year and may continue to grow if new outlets do not keep pace with production. OTHER MIDSTREAM DEVELOPMENTSEnterprise noted future demand for natural gas from data centers being built in Texas and from new power plants being developed under the recent Texas Energy Fund. Energy Transfer Partners is pursuing similar opportunities for power plants and data centers throughout its natural gas network, from Arizona to Florida and from Texas to Michigan. Energy Transfer received requests to connect to about 45 power plants in 11 states that could consume gas loads of up to 6 billion cubic feet/day. For data centers, Energy Transfer received requests from 40 that could consume gas loads of up to 10 billion cubic feet/day. EnLink Midstream said data centers could represent at least 7.5% of US electricity consumption by 2030, up from 2.5%. With rising natural gas demand from data centers and continued capital discipline among producers, natural gas prices are projected to rise in 2025 and in 2026, Orgle said. Such demand growth could provide support for natural gas prices, which could raise prices for ethane. If US ethane export capacity does not grow fast enough to drive substantial ethane disposition, increased ethane rejection may occur as higher natural gas prices boost ethane’s fuel value, Orgle said. MIDSTREAM PROJECTS The following table shows some of the midstream projects being developed in the US. Company Project Type Capacity Units Location Startup Brazos Midstream Sundance I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Martin County Oct-24 Brazos Midstream Unnamed Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day – H2 2025 Delek Unnamed Gas Plant 110 million cubic feet/day Delaware H1 2025 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM Q4 24 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM na Energy Transfer Frac IX Fractionator 165,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q4 26 Energy Transfer Badger Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware mid 25 Energy Transfer Permian processing expansions* Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Permian Energy Transfer Expansion of Nederland NGL terminal Terminal Up to 250,000 bbl/day Nederland, Texas mid 25 Energy Transfer Expansion of Orla East Gas pPlant 50 million cubic feet/day Orla, Texas Q3 24 Entergy Transfer Lonestar Express Expansion Pipeline 90,000 bbl/day 2026 Enterprise Fractionator 14 Fractionator 195,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West (Mentone 4) Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West 2 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware h1 26 Enterprise Mentone 3 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware in service Enterprise Leonidas Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland In service Enterprise Bahia NGL pipeline Pipeline 600,000 bbl/day Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 1 Terminal 120,000 ethane, 900,000 refrigerated tank Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 2 Terminal add 60,000 ethane to raise total to 180,000, Propane 360,000 H1 26 Enterprise Ethylene Export Expansion* Terminal 550,000-2m tonnes/year Q4 24 & Q4 25 Enterprise Orion Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland Q3 25 Enterprise Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) LPG expansion Terminal 300,000 bl/day Houston Ship Channel end 2026 Gulf Coast Fractionators JV * GCF Fractionator Fractionator 135,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu 24-Nov Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Terminal 315,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Fractionator 300,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA MPLX Preakness II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up MPLX Secretariat Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware H2 25 MPLX Harmon Creek II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Marcellus started up MPLX Harmon Creek III Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX Harmon Creek III de-ethanizer 40,000 bbl/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX BANGL pipeline** Pipeline expansion from 125,000 to 250,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK MB-6 Fractionator Fractionator 125,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu year end 24 ONEOK West Texas NGL Pipeline Expansion Pipeline increase to 740,000 bbl/day year end 24 ONEOK Elk Creek Pipeline Expansion**** Pipeline increase to 435,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK Medford Fractionator rebuild Fractionator 210,000 bbl/day Medord, Oklahoma Q4 26, Q1 27 Targa Train 9 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 10 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 11 Fractionator Fractionator 150,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 26 Targa Greenwood Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 23 Targa Greenwood II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland started up Targa Wildcat II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 24 Targa Roadrunner II Gas Plant 230 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up Targa Bull Moose Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 25 Targa Pembrook II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 25 Targa Daytona NGL Pipeline Pipeline 400,000 bbl/day Completed Targa LPG Export Expansion Terminal 1m bbl/month Q3 23 Targa Galena Park LPG terminal expansion Terminal 650,000 bbl/month H2 25 Targa Falcon II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 26 Targa Bull Moose II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q1 26 Targa East Pembrook Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q2 26 Targa East Driver Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 26 Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail photo: Polymer pellets (source: Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICS)–China’s Energy Law that will take effect in January 2025 is expected to drive investments in the domestic hydrogen sector as it will provide further policy support, and enable technological developments aimed at expanding the scope of hydrogen applications. Under the law, hydrogen will no longer be classified as a dangerous chemical product, thus, removing restrictions around its applications, production and storage. China’s hydrogen sector is currently in the demonstration phase, mainly focusing on commercial vehicle application. When the new legislation kicks in, hydrogen production and refuelling stations and storage facilities will be allowed outside designated chemical parks, and that is expected to address infrastructure gaps in the sector. Hefty transportation cost due to lack of hydrogen refuelling stations and long-distance pipelines has been one of the key bottlenecks that impede hydrogen adoption in China. Storage and transportation account for about 30% of end-use hydrogen costs, limiting hydrogen applications in urban public transport and long-haul sectors. With the new energy law, development of the Chinese hydrogen sector is expected to gain pace between 2026 and 2030. (See ICIS Hydrogen Topic Page for details) The China Energy Law was approved on 8 November at the 12th session of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top legislature. It fills a legislative gap since China – despite being the world’s largest energy producer and consumer – had long lacked an overarching energy law. Currently, there are several standalone energy-related laws and regulations in the country, including the Electricity Law, the Coal Law, the Energy Conservation Law, and the Renewable Energy Law, but lacked a legislation that covers the whole energy industry until now. The recently launched Energy Law will provide a much-needed framework for strengthening the legal foundation of the energy sector, ensuring national energy security and promoting renewable and low-carbon transformation. The law includes nine sections, covering stipulations on energy planning, development and utilization, energy market systems, energy reserves and emergency measures, energy technology innovation, supervision and management, legal responsibilities, supplementary provisions. Insight article by Patricia Tao and Yu Yunfeng

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical companies in Asia extended losses on Wednesday, tracking weakness in regional bourses, amid a strong US dollar and uncertainty over trade policies of US President-elect Donald Trump which could fuel inflation. At 04:00 GMT, LG Chem fell by 4.75% in Seoul, while Mitsui Chemicals and Asahi Kasei were down by 2.90% and 0.88%, respectively, in Tokyo. Formosa Petrochemical Corp (FPCC) was down 1.79% in Taipei, while Sinopec Corp slipped 0.47% in Hong Kong. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 Index was down by 1.01% at 38,978.11; South Korea’s KOSPI Composite fell by 1.91% to 2,435.04; and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped by 0.63% to 19,721.58. Sentiment toward Asian equities has shifted to caution following Trump’s re-election on concerns that his policies will drive up inflation and prevent the US Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further. The broad dollar index (DXY) rose further on 12 November to its highest since November 2022, according to Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research. The DXY, which measures the greenback against six peers, inched up 0.05% on Thursday to 105.97. A stronger US dollar makes imports more expensive for Asia, fueling inflation, and higher borrowing costs for the region. Japan and China rely heavily on imports for their energy and raw material needs. The South Korean won continued to slide against the greenback on Thursday, hovering above the psychologically important level of won (W) 1,400 at W1,406.57 to the US dollar. The Japanese yen (Y) also touched a fresh low since 30 July on Thursday and was trading at around Y154.8 to the US dollar. Thumbnail image: US dollar banknotes, 19 September 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Warnings from chemical companies about upcoming auto shutdowns are becoming true, with Nissan becoming the latest automobile producer to announce reductions in its workforce and global production capacity after slashing its forecast for operating profits during its current fiscal year. Chemical producers have warned that automobile producers had started taking unscheduled and prolonged downtime in the third quarter, and the trend will continue in the fourth quarter. For Celanese, the downturn was sudden and painful, especially for its Engineered Materials segment, contributing to a big Q3 miss in its earnings and a decision to temporarily idle plants in the fourth quarter. Trinseo, which also makes engineered materials, expects a lot of its customers will shut down operations during the fourth quarter. The latest ICIS auto forecast still expects builds to increase in 2024. The rate of growth will slow in 2025. Automobiles represent a key end market for plastics and chemicals because nearly every component has some chemistry. The latest data indicate that polymer use is about 423 pounds (192kg) per vehicle. Chemicals are also used to make antifreeze and other fluids, catalysts, coatings and adhesives. AUTO CUTBACKS SO FARNissan plans to cut global production capacity by 20% and reduce its workforce by 9,000. The move is part of a plan to reduce fixed costs by 300 billion yen and variable costs by 100 billion yen when compared to its fiscal 2024, which will end on 31 March. Nissan has slashed its outlook for fiscal year 2024, as shown in the following table: Revised FY 24 Outlook Previous FY 24 Outlook Revenue 12,700.0 14,000.0 Operating profit 150.0 500.0 Source: Nissan Stellantis is cutting 1,100 jobs at its US plant in Toledo, Ohio, which produces Jeep vehicles, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal, a business publication. In the late summer, it reported Stellantis’s plans to lay off 2,450 workers in Michigan state after it decided to end production of a truck model. Volkswagen has called for a 10% pay cut for workers in Germany in order to ensure its competitiveness and safeguard jobs. According to media reports, the auto major may close three of its 10 plants in Germany and cut thousands of jobs. Additional reporting by Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail shows automobiles. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–A potential US import tariff of 10% on Mexican goods is looming large on the country’s export and petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing sectors, but it is early days and the worries are premature, according to the head of institutional relations at polyethylene (PE) producer Braskem Idesa. Sergio Plata, who is also the president of the Association of Industrialists of Veracruz State (Aievac), home to a large petrochemicals hub, added that Mexico is not only a supplier to the US – the country exports around 80% of what it produces to the US – but it is also a key consumer of US goods. Plata said this will be a crucial factor that will allow Mexico to renegotiate the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) from a position of strength when it is up for renewal in 2026. Although the focus in the past week has been on how Mexico could be hit by tariffs when Trump becomes US president – with some analysts forecasting a negative impact of 0.5-1% of GDP in a full year – Plata made a call to stay calm and carry on – for now. He argues that the tariffs will not be imposed overnight, saying that such topics are likely to be addressed within the context of the USMCA renegotiation, in more than a year’s time. Moreover said Plata, in Donald Trump’s first term, he ended up dropping some campaign promises under pressure from different lobby groups, not least businesses which could see input costs spike if new tariffs are implemented. “These [proposals would be] important challenges for Mexico, and I believe 2026’s USMCA renegotiation will be key for the entire North America so we can continue being and become more competitive,” said Plata. “Regarding tariffs, at this time we can only wait until the parties sit at the negotiating table, so we can have a dialogue with the US government. What I can certainly say is that NAFTA first and now USCMA have greatly served the three countries, a success which we should not measure only based on the trade balance.” The US trade balance – or deficit – is a key theme running through Trump’s tariff proposals as he wants to re-invigorate the US manufacturing sector, and produce as much as possible domestically. Indeed, the US consistently runs a large trade deficit with China and Mexico, its two main sources of manufactured goods. In 2022, Mexico exported goods worth $452 billion to the US, according to data from Comtrade via Trading Economics; the US, in turn, exported goods worth $323 billion to Mexico – a difference of nearly $130 billion. According to Plata, nothing is written about tariffs, at least within the USMCA, and issued a reminder of what happened when the USCMA was first signed, as a successor to NAFTA after Trump’s first administration demanded changes to a free trade deal it deemed disadvantageous. Despite the furore, tariffs were kept off the table because the US government eventually saw that tariffs within the USCMA would also negatively affect its own companies. Whether an emboldened Trump, with a clear popular mandate to implement his promises, will also give in this time remains to be seen. “We would be going too far ahead of ourselves if we already think a 10% tariff on Mexico will be imposed. We Mexicans must now make it clear to the US that the commercial relationship should not only be measured on the trade deficit, but rather on what Mexico gives to the US as well, and not just the other way around,” said Plata. “Because Mexico also generates North America-wide economic development. I can speak for what I know best and only in this region, only in the south of the state of Veracruz, we import from the US around 1.3 million tonnes/year of chemicals and petrochemicals, resulting in billions of imports. The figures are important both ways and this will be brought to a potential negotiating table.” SHEINBAUM AND TRUMPA fascinating aspect for the years to come will be the personal relationship between the US and Mexican presidents, if any – Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum could not be more different ideologically. Sheinbaum’s backing of a supermajority in parliament of two-thirds may cause further friction going forward on top of that caused by the approval on 11 September of a controversial judicial reform which is opposed from many fronts. The US ambassador to Mexico has publicly sounded the alarm about Morena’s judicial reform (see statement here), as did the US chemicals trade group the American Chemistry Council (ACC) and nine other industrial peers who wrote to the US cabinet to “convey their concern” about the proposals. “Regarding the judicial reform, we have the basis for the state of law in the Constitution, and that is a framework that provides certainty,” said Plata. “The devil is in the details, and in coming weeks and months we’ll evidently have to pay attention in the secondary stages of the reform’s debate in parliament, which must be open to listen to the specialists,” said Plata. The Braskem Idesa executive preferred to bring the conversation back to Mexico’s 2026 challenge. One-party Morena reforms allowing, Plata said the current Mexican cabinet would head into a potential USMCA renegotiation in a strong position. “We are in a good position to negotiate, now more than ever, and this is because as a country we are in much better place than we were at in 1994, when Mexico signed NAFTA. At the time, the US and Mexico did not have the solid trade relationship they have today,” he said. “On the Mexican side, many things have changed for the better. Since the 1990s, we have signed more than 50 free trade agreements (FTAs) and the state has now excellent trade negotiators. As an industry and as a country, we are well prepared to sit at the table and reach a good outcome in 2026.” – ICIS will publish on Wednesday (13 November) the second part of this interview, focusing on Sheinbaum’s domestic policies towards chemicals. As President-Elect, she approached the industry and travelled to its Veracruz hub, gaining praise from Plata as well as other industrial groups. As President, is she keeping up that focus on fostering chemicals? Plata said she is – Read this Insight article for wider analysis on how new trade policies in the US could hit the Mexican economy Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

LONDON (ICIS)–The Netherlands court ruling mandating that Shell cut its total carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 has been thrown out, the oil and gas major said on Tuesday. The original 2021 verdict had mandated that Shell’s emissions reduction targets also apply to its scope 3 emissions, which relate to the CO2 generated by customers downstream of a business from the use of its products. At the time of the original case, Shell has pledged to cut emissions by 50% compared to 2016 levels by 2030, but that target only referred to scope 1 and 2 emissions. Th company shifted its tax base to the UK and dropped the “Royal Dutch” from its name shortly after the original verdict. The Netherlands’ Court of Appeal in the Hague overturned the ruling on Tuesday. In a written statement on the verdict, the court stated that the decision to overturn the original verdict due to “insufficient consensus in climate science on a specific reduction percentage to which an individual company like Shell should adhere.” “The court was unable to establish that the social standard of care entails an obligation for Shell to reduce its CO2 emissions by 45%, or some other percentage,” the court added. The original case was brought by Dutch environmental group Milieudefensie. The push for Shell to cut scope 3 emissions by 2030 would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on overall national emissions-reduction, the court added. “Shell could meet that obligation by ceasing to trade in the fuels it purchases from third parties. Other companies would then take over that trade. This would consequently not result in a reduction in CO2 emissions,” the court said. Shell estimates that by 2023 it had achieved 60% of its target to cut scope 1 and 2 emissions in half by 2030. Thumbnail image: The Hague Court of Appeal rules on the Shell emissions-reduction case on 12 November (Source: Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock)

LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s economic outlook grew more pessimistic in November following the collapse of the country’s coalition government and Donald Trump’s victory in the US election. An assessment of the current economic situation in Europe’s largest chemicals producer was also bleaker, economic research group ZEW said on Tuesday. Its November, economic sentiment indicator fell by 5.7 points from the previous month to 7.4 points. ZEW’s indicator for the current situation was also down, by 4.5 points to -91.4 points. “Economic expectations for Germany have been overshadowed by Trump’s victory and the collapse of the German government coalition,” ZEW president Achim Wambach said in a statement. “Economic sentiment has declined – and the outcome of the US presidential election is likely to be the main reason for this. The fact that economic expectations for the USA are clearly rising, while economic sentiment for China and the eurozone is falling, supports this view,” Wambach added. The ZEW president also pointed to some optimism with expectations of improving economic prospects for Germany due to upcoming snap elections after the collapse of its coalition government on 7 November. For the eurozone, the group’s economic sentiment indicator fell by 7.6 points to 12.5 points, while the current situation index remained in negative territory at -43.8 points, down by 3.0 points from the previous month.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba will remain in his post following a snap election, despite the setback suffered by his Liberal Democratic Party, which lost majority control of parliament in October. Support for semiconductors meant to capitalize on demand, provide cushion against geopolitical shocks Japan Oct consumer prices up 1.8% year on year Central bank may hike interest rate to meet inflation target Ishiba secured 221 votes of the 465-seat lower house, winning the 11 November elections to remain as Japan’s head of government. He won against former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda who is the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party. Upon winning, Ishiba pledged more than yen (Y) 10 trillion ($65 billion) in support of Japan’s semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) sector by fiscal year 2030 amid geopolitical risks and trade shocks, notably between the US and China. Having a strong domestic semiconductor industry would loosen Japan’s reliance on imports and meet rising demand overseas. The plan includes proposed legislations to support mass production of next-generation chips, with beneficiaries including Japanese semiconductor company Rapidus, headquartered in the northern Japanese city of Hokkaido, according to Reuters. In 2023, Japan had unveiled a Y2 trillion plan to support its domestic chip industry as the AI boom was fueling demand. POLICY INTEREST RATE HIKE POSSIBLE Meanwhile, Ishiba also unveiled cash handouts to help low-income households with disaster preparedness and deal with higher prices. Household spending in October dropped by 1.1% year on year, according to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Core consumer prices for the month increased by 1.8% over the same period, official data showed. Eyes will be on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting on 18 and 19 December, with an interest rate hike possible amid strong downward pressure on the Japanese yen. At 08:00 GMT, the yen was trading at Y153.83 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The recent strength of the US dollar followed the re-election of Donald Trump as US president. Trump is pushing for imposition of more tariffs on foreign goods entering the world’s biggest economy. A weaker yen supports exports but discourages imports. The BoJ is expected to hike its policy rates from 0.25%, in line with its target to keep inflation at 2% for 2024, Japan securities firm Nomura in a research note on 8 November. “We believe… events will pave the way to a virtuous cycle between wages and prices, leading to the BoJ hiking the policy rate in December 2024,” Nomura said. Focus article by Jonathan Yee ($1 = Y153.83)

MUMBAI (ICIS)–A fire that erupted at Indian Oil Corp’s (IOC) Gujarat refinery in western India on 11 November has killed two people as of Tuesday morning, according to media reports. The blaze occurred at around 3:30pm local time (10:00 GMT) on 11 November at a benzene storage tank at the refinery, the company said in a statement. A blast at the tank caused the fire, which spread to two adjoining storage tanks, according to local police inspector A B Mori. A person injured in the fire died at the hospital, bringing the death toll to two, news daily Economic Times reported quoting police officials. A third injured person is currently undergoing treatment at a local hospital and is stable, they said. The fire raged overnight before being completely extinguished early Tuesday morning, a company source said. Following the fire, the refinery’s fluid circulation was halted and other storage tanks were being cooled down to prevent the blaze from spreading further, Vadodara police commissioner Narasimha Komar said during a media interaction on 11 November. Indian Oil is currently investigating the cause of the incident and will continue to monitor the situation, the company official said. (add details throughout) Initial reporting by Fanny Zhang