HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ocean carriers will increase blank sailings around the Lunar New Year holiday to support elevated container rates, but now that the labor issues at US Gulf and East Coast ports have been resolved, some analysts think rate growth will slow, or shippers could even see lower rates. Emily Stausbøll, senior shipping analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said spot rates may now begin to fall but warned that shippers still face other supply chain threats in 2025. “Looking ahead, it is likely spot rate growth will now soften on trades into the US from Asia, suggesting a brighter outlook for shippers negotiating new long-term contracts,” Stausbøll said. “Shippers must remain cautious, however, because it will not take much for freight rates to begin spiraling once again, particularly given the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the return of [President-elect Donald] Trump to the White House, which could escalate the US-China trade war,” Stausbøll said. Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence, defines the four-week Lunar New Year period as the week of the holiday plus the following three weeks. Murphy said carriers have so far scheduled blanked capacity of 9.0%, which is in sharp contrast with the 22.8% blanked in 2024, and the average reduction of 18.3% from 2016-2019. For context, the blanked percentage in 2021 (where pandemic demand was surging) was higher at 10.7%. “Under normal circumstances, this would mean significant blank sailings announcements in the upcoming weeks, since it is highly unlikely that carriers would be satisfied with this level of excess capacity,” Murphy said. “This would result in a situation reminiscent of 2023 and 2024, where significant capacity cuts were made very close to Lunar New Year.” CHANGING ALLIANCES Several major carriers are restructuring alliances in 2025, which is also adding some uncertainty to shipping. Shipping alliances are agreements between carriers to collaborate globally on specific trade routes. This will be the most significant shift in alliances since 2017, according to analysts at freight forwarder Flexport. The changes will see Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) breaking from the 2M alliance with Maersk and will service customers alone with its expanded fleet now the largest in the market. MSC said it will incorporate more direct call services. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd will form the Gemini Alliance, with a reduced number of port calls that they say will improve reliability. The Ocean alliance consists of OOCL, Evergreen, COSCO, and CMA CGM. The Premier alliance will be made up of Ocean Network Express (ONE), South Korean shipping line HMM, and Taiwan’s Yang Ming. Judah Levine, head of research at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos, said it remains to be seen if there will be any improved service metric from the shifts. “The rollout and adjustment period will probably stretch into March,” Levine said. “This is going to coincide with easing seasonal demand, so it could be a factor that pushes rates down if we do see some competitiveness between the new alliances that they compete for customers.” Levine also said the adjustment period could lead to increased schedule disruptions as vessels are being moved into place for these new services. CEASEFIRE, SUEZ CANAL On a side note, container ships have been avoiding the Suez Canal for more than a year because of attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels. A ceasefire in the Gaza conflict could potentially end attacks in the Red Sea, reopening the Suez Canal. This would have the greatest impact on normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container shipping route but would also affect Asia-US rates as shipping capacity would surge once carriers no longer must divert away from the Suez Canal. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Focus article by Adam Yanelli

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The rally in crude markets could get continued support from cold weather, sanctions and a recovery in demand from China, the CEO of US crude producer Hess said on Tuesday. Oil markets are important to the US chemical industry because prices for crude influence prices for several commodity petrochemicals. Since the first day of trading in 2025, front-month Brent crude futures have risen by nearly 7%. Oil demand could be several hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil a day higher because of the cold winter, said John Hess CEO of Hess and chairman of the American Petroleum Institute (API), an oil trade group. He made his comments during API’s State of American Energy presentation. A further rise in oil demand could come from continued economic growth in the US and a recovery in China. “They are going to do everything they can to stimulate their economy,” he said “I would not bet against China for two years in a row.” During the end of 2024, Hess suspects that oil demand shrank in China because of the slowdown in the nation’s economy. The third leg of support for oil markets will come from geopolitical tensions, Hess said. On 10 January, the US Department of the Treasury introduced more sanctions on vessels that carry Russian oil. “The initial numbers that are out there are up to a million barrels a day of impact of supply that might have trouble getting into the market for Russia,” Hess said. “There could be another 1 million barrels a day from Iran.” If sanctions and other factors cause a large enough spike in oil prices, Saudi Arabia and other members of OPEC have spare capacity that they can use to stabilize the oil market, he said. PROSPECTS FOR PERMIT REFORM, EXTENDING TAX CUTSSenator John Thune (Republican, South Dakota) said Congress may opt to address energy, military spending and border security in one bill and extending tax cuts in a second bill. The tax bill will make permanent nearly all of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). This was a campaign promise made by Donald Trump, who will be sworn into office on 20 January. WAYS TO ROLL BACK EV PERKSThune said Congress could use the Congressional Review Act (CRA) to repeal a waiver that California needed to adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II) program, which gradually phased out sales of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines. The California program is a lynchpin for similar programs adopted by 12 other states and territories. If California loses its waiver, then those other states and territories cannot adopt their programs. The fate of the ACC II program could become a legal dispute over state versus federal power that would need to be settled in court. Trump’s predecessor, President Joe Biden, introduced two other auto programs that critics say are so strict, they act as effective bans on ICE vehicles. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation’s (DoT’s) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates stricter fuel-efficiency standards. Thune doubts that Congress can use the CRA to roll back the tailpipe rule. Nonetheless, Trump may find other ways to scale back or repeal the tailpipe rule and the stricter CAFE standards during his first days in office. Even though EVs make up a small share of overall US auto sales, they are important to the chemical industry because they consume more plastics than their counterparts that are powered by internal combustion engines. EVs are also creating demand for new polymers and fluids that can meet their unique material challenges. Thumbnail shows snow. Image by Xinhua/Shutterstock

BARCELONA (ICIS)–A ceasefire in the Gaza conflict could potentially end attacks in the Red Sea, reopening the Suez Canal and normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container shipping route. Gaza ceasefire could stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping Route via Cape of Good Hope takes 10 days longer than Suez Canal Reopening Suez would add 10 days of inventory to the market Europe would be open to more Asia exports Freight rates could fall as container capacity is freed up Ceasefire negotiations ongoing ‘Stunning’ levels of overcapacity expected in China in 2025 New Cefic report highlights need for new Europe industrial deal for chemicals In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Nigel Davis and John Richardson from the ICIS market development team and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

Over 10 LNG diversions to Europe agreed far in January This is driven by a price premium to Europe versus Asia for closer US cargoes; TTF up on supply risks and LNG reliance It is expected that Europe could draw more diversions this week LONDON (ICIS)–Over LNG 10 cargoes have been diverted from a heading to Asia instead to Europe so far in 2025, driven by premium prices in Europe that could cause further cargoes to be redirected, according to traders. ICIS data has so far recorded five US LNG cargoes switching direction towards European markets, and one to Turkey, while on the water in the past two weeks, with several more deals meaning more are expected to come. Others may have made the decision to switch to Europe at the point of loading and not show a change in direction while on the water. A source said in the first week of January that seven diversions were already taking place or planned, including from Singapore and Japan-based traders. The latest cargo to be diverted on 13 January was the 174,000cbm Flex Vigilant. The vessel, with a US Freeport cargo, was heading towards Asia, signaling for Thailand for 9 February, but turned north and updated its ETA to 23 January, suggesting a nearer destination in Europe instead. Other recent diversions include Diamond Gas’ Diamond Gas Crystal from the Cameron plant in the US, after earlier signaling a destination of Japan, the Bushu Maru, the Grace Dahlia and the Maran Gas Sparta. “Diversions even started when Asian spot LNG was still at a premium to TTF of $0.45/MMBtu,” said one Europe-based trader this week, estimating over 10 cargoes diverted for loaded and soon-to-be loaded cargoes. “Now cargoes have been diverted and the spread widened again for February.” ICIS has recorded an average TTF discount to the ICIS East Asian LNG index between 1-13 January of -$0.11/MMBtu, rising on 13 January to a TTF premium of $0.898/MMBtu – the highest since 2023. This could trigger further diversions. The average European discount does not consider the longer journey time and chartering costs to send US LNG cargoes to Asia. Many of the cargoes may have been sold to European buyers on a prompt basis. In the future, more US LNG sellers are likely to hold European regas capacity and be able to place cargoes directly into the market. Any TTF premium to Asia would make for clearly higher margins sending US LNG to Europe if the seller can find a buyer or has its own regasification position. Sources pointed to weak demand in Asia as a key driver for the diversions, particularly as China prepares for its annual Spring Festival and markets there slow down in response. This has fed into the changing price spread, where US LNG sellers will constantly be monitoring European and Asian netbacks and adjusting positions. TTF prices have received relatively more support from falling stocks, comparatively colder weather and short-term signs of lower feedgas nominations to US LNG plants. Europe may well need to maintain parity, or a small premium, to Asian markets into the storage injection season later in the year. HOW DIVERSIONS ARE AGREED To ensure that a TTF premium is captured, “the most straightforward way would be on the paper side …to hedge your price risk exposure on the physical side,” with costs factored in. The diversions in this market can also favor shipowners and operators. “Right now it is hard to see how an owner would complain being given a short ballast back to the US Gulf instead of a long ballast back from the Far East, when rates are so low and the eastern freight market is so weak,” said a trader. The source added if the vessel diverting to Europe from Asia was intended for further trade or dry-dock in the east, an “agreement would need to be struck to compensate the longer ballast voyage and costs incurred to the owner from diverting into Europe”. Diversions can be arranged for spot and some contractual volumes. The destination-free structure of US FOB contracts is perfect for these kind of short-term diversions. DES contracts can be more problematic, and in general must have consent from the seller as they bear the risk of the cargo until after it has been delivered. Additional reporting by Lars Kjoellesdal

HOUSTON (ICIS)–On his first day in office as president, Donald Trump could repeal the pause on permits for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and automobile policies that are so restrictive, critics say they favor electric vehicles (EVs) over those powered by internal combustion engines (ICE), an oil and gas trade group said. Repealing those polices are among the goals of the American Petroleum Institute (API), and they would have indirect effects on the US chemical industry. LNG exports affect US chemical markets because they support prices for natural gas by providing another source of demand. Natural gas prices influence those for ethane, the main feedstock that US crackers use to make ethylene. EVs consume more plastics than their counterparts that are powered by internal combustion engines. EVs are also creating demand for new polymers and fluids that can meet their unique material challenges. REMOVING THE HALT ON NEW LNG PERMITSThe US has effectively frozen the issuance of new LNG permits since January 2024, when President Joe Biden issued the order. The freeze applies to terminals that will export LNG to countries that lack free trade agreements with the US. “I think the LNG pause is something that they can address on day one,” said Mike Sommers, API president. He made his comments in a briefing earlier in the week. Trump takes office on 20 January. If Trump removes the freeze, it would not automatically lead to a flood of new permits for LNG terminals. US companies may be reluctant to build more terminals when global LNG capacity is expected to increase. Rising US costs for material and labor have made LNG projects less attractive. Legal challenges could arise during the permitting process. REMOVING EFFECTIVE RESTRICTIONS ON ICE VEHICLESTrump could ax two Biden automobile policies his first day in office, Sommers said. The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation’s (DoT’s) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. The group also wants Trump to withdraw a waiver that the federal government granted to California, which allowed the state to adopt a program that will gradually phase out ICE vehicles. California’s program, called Advanced Clean Cars II (ACC II), is the lynchpin for similar programs adopted by 12 other US states and territories. If Trump can successfully withdraw the waiver, then it would prevent California and the 12 other states and territories from adopting ACC II style programs. The fate of the ACC II program could become a legal dispute over state versus federal power that would need to be settled in court. OTHER POLICY GOALS OF THE APIEVs and LNG permits make up two of the five policies that the API will promote to the new administration. The other three include permitting reform, tax policy and issuing a new five-year offshore leasing program. Under these five policy goals, the API has outlined more than 70 actions that the administration could take, many of them possible on Trump’s first day in office. Others may require acts from Congress. This could be challenging because Trump’s party holds a two-seat majority in the lower legislative chamber of the US. API TO DISCOURAGE TARIFFS ON CANADIAN CRUDEPrior to taking office, Trump had threatened to impose tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada. Trump did not indicate that he would exclude Canada’s sizeable shipments of crude oil. In 2023, Canadian oil made up nearly 60% of all crude imported by the US, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Canadian oil is heavier than that produced in the US, so the two grades complement each other in the nation’s refineries. “40% of the American refinery kit is not tooled to refine the kind of oil that is found in the US,” Sommers said. “We’re confident that the Trump administration understands the importance of that kind of trade, and we’re going to work with them as they consider their trade policy over time,” he said. PIECEMEAL PRESERVATION OF IRAThe API would like the government to preserve some of the tax credits created by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Those include the carbon capture tax credits under Section 45Q and the hydrogen production tax credits under Section 45V. Many API members are developing carbon capture and hydrogen projects. Meanwhile, it would like the government to repeal the IRA’s methane fee.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has been rushing to ship out goods ahead of new US tariffs under the Trump administration which should keep exports growth strong in the short term, but external demand is projected to slow in line with a weaker global economy in 2025. Dec exports to US hit 30-month high, but risks loom Ships, semiconductors lead export growth in 2024 Chinese government stimulus may back import growth China closed the year with a record trade surplus of $101.6 billion in December, driven by surging exports and a return to growth for imports after two straight months of contraction. This pushed both the monthly and annual trade surpluses to all-time highs, with the former exceeding $100 billion for the first time ever. “December’s data likely benefited from some export frontloading ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration this month,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch banking and financial information services provider ING, in a note. In December, China’s exports to the US surged by 15.6% year on year, a 30-month high and the strongest increase in shipments after the ASEAN, which grew by 18.9%. For the whole of 2024, China’s exports and imports rose by 5.9%, reversing the 4.6% decline in the previous year. Imports for the full year posted a 1.1% growth, in contrast with the 5.5% contraction recorded in 2023. The trade surplus of the world’s second-biggest economy widened to a record high of $992.2 billion, up 20.7% from the preceding year. Against the US, China’s trade surplus widened to $359.9 billion, after narrowing sharply to $339.94 billion in 2023. The US accounted for a third of China’s total trade surplus in 2024. China’s export success last year was concentrated in key sectors like ships, semiconductors, autos, and household appliances. Key exports by key products On the imports front, the latest data “shows a clear divide” within China’s economy, according to ING’s Song. “Sectors benefiting from policy support were the only areas of strength in terms of import demand,” he said. China’s focus on technology self-sufficiency caused the 57.9% year-on-year surge in imports of automatic data processing equipment, with imports of semiconductors up by 10.4%, and those of hi-tech products rising by 10.7%. Softening commodities demand in 2024 weakened import figures across the board. Agricultural products saw a 7.9% decline, while imports of iron ore, crude oil, lumber, and steel fell by 2.5%, 3.9%, 1.5%, and 9.2% respectively. “China’s consumption could see a modest recovery in 2025, depending on how effective policy support is, but it remains uncertain how much of this will translate into stronger import demand as policies look likely to benefit domestic producers more,” Song added. STRONGER HEADWINDS FOR EXPORTS “External demand has been an important contributor to growth momentum in 2024, not only through the record trade surplus but also the impact on manufacturing,” he said. However, looming tariff increases, and the prospect of slower global growth cast a shadow over external demand in 2025, Song noted. “Our ING scenario currently has tariffs starting to take effect in the second quarter of this year, with tariffs on China potentially coming earlier,” he said. China’s exports still face the risk of contraction this year if US’ additional tariffs on Chinese goods turned out to be larger or implemented sooner than expected, said Ho Woei Chen, economist at Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research, in a note. Meanwhile, imports may be somewhat supported by the government’s stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption, but imports of intermediate goods could drop when any additional tariffs kicked in, Ho said. “Weighed by additional tariffs and intensifying trade tensions, China’s exports grew just 0.5% while imports fell -2.8% in 2019,” Ho said. “For now, we factor in marginal growth of around 1.0% for both exports and imports in 2025.” Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Bottle-grade US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) demand is currently in a seasonal lull and is expected to continue that way through the end of January and into February. However, demand is expected to pick up in March with healthy orders already for the month, according to market participants. Typically, demand picks up ahead of peak season which runs from Memorial Day at the end of May to Labor Day at the beginning of September, but in recent years, demand has been slow to pick up before the beginning of peak season. Historically, an increase in temperatures pushes consumers to purchase more bottled beverages. PET resins can be broadly classified into bottle, fibre or film grade, named according to the downstream applications. Bottle grade resin is the most commonly traded form of PET resin and it is used in bottle and container packaging through blow molding and thermoforming. Fibre grade resin goes into making polyester fibre, while film grade resin is used in electrical and flexible packaging applications. PET can be compounded with glass fibre for the production of engineering plastics. DAK Americas, Indorama, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation and Far Eastern New Century (FENC) are PET producers in the US.

MPs renew call for German Galushchenko to address ministry corruption concerns The summon comes after minister and MPs disagree over nuclear capacity relying on Russian technology MPs raise fears over major costs, no transparent project supervision LONDON (ICIS)– The Ukrainian energy minister German Galushchenko has been summoned to parliament to explain accusations of corruption in the ministry, two members of parliament confirmed to ICIS on 13 January. Galushchenko was summoned in parliament in September 2024 after a deputy minister was fired for accepting a bribe. The minister refused to attend at the time. MPs have now renewed the request for Galushchenko to appear in the unicameral parliament of Ukraine this week after a major dispute erupted over a government push to build multi-billion dollar nuclear capacity reliant on Russian technology. Last year, the government resurrected plans initiated in the 1990s to build two new reactors with an installed capacity of 2GW, whose costs at current levels could reach $4 billion. The project, which benefits from the support of German Galushchenko and the nuclear producer Energoatom, involves buying two old reactors purchased by Bulgaria from Rosatom some 15 years ago. The reactors were secured for the construction of the Belene nuclear power plant in northern Bulgaria but had not been used amid an arbitral dispute with Rosatom which eventually forced the southeast European country to pay $620 million to the company for them. The Ukrainian government now wants to buy these reactors and use them at the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant in southwestern Ukraine. PROJECT DETAILS MPs including some members of the majority Servant of the People party oppose the deal, claiming Galushchenko had not been providing updated technical details and financial estimates for the project. They also raised concerns about the minister’s reference to some members of the EU delegation in Kyiv, whom he described as ‘mid-level diplomats,’ not authorized to express an official position. The government wants the project to be discussed and approved in the full chamber but no official date has been set yet. Speaking to ICIS, Inna Sovsun, a MP from the opposition Holos party and member of the parliament’s energy committee, said Galushchenko appeared in parliament last week and submitted documents dating back to 2018, which are no longer valid. “He provided an estimate of Ukraine Hryvnia (UAH) 77 billion (€1.8 billion) but, considering Ukraine’s high inflation rate since the start of the war, this cost is at least double that between UAH150-UAH200 billion,” she said. Sovsun said Galushchenko himself accepted the cost may be higher and added that he submitted technical specifications for a project that was slightly different to the one that is supported by the government. The government insists Ukraine needs secure electricity capacity to replace the thermal power plants which had been destroyed by Russian missiles. However, Sovsun said it would take years to build the nuclear capacity, offering cold comfort to millions of Ukrainians who had endured power cuts since the start of Russia’s full-scale war. “Is this [the nuclear capacity] the best option now? We need things done quickly and as cheaply as possible,” she said. FINANCING Sovsun also raised questions about the financing of the project, noting that it may be difficult for Energoatom to secure funds from international financial institutions. This is because the company still has no functional supervisory board to oversee its operations. If Ukraine fails to secure funding from IFIs it may need to increase end consumer electricity tariffs to fund the project. Sovsun noted that considering the sensitivity of the project it may be subject to no public scrutiny, which could open up opportunities for corrupt practices. A supervisory board was appointed at Energoatom in June 2024 but has not been meeting or publishing activity reports since then, according to Oleksandr Lysenko, a Ukraine-based corporate governance specialist who confirmed this to ICIS. Speaking to ICIS Andrii Zhupanyn, an MP and deputy head of the energy and utility committee said minister Galushchenko’s reference to members of the EU’s delegation to Kyiv as mid-level diplomats not authorized to make an official statement on the matter was being ‘carefully read’ in western embassies. He said the minister had referred to private correspondence between Sovsun and some members of the EU delegation. Sovsun conceded neither US nor EU partners had not expressed an official view on Ukraine’s nuclear power plans. The ministry of energy did not reply to questions from ICIS but said in a statement posted on its website: “Within the framework of the relevant public discussions, private correspondence of mid-level diplomats, not authorized to express the official position of the EU or its member states, was used.”

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025. Click on a headline to read the full story. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030 For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PE demand could finally improve from Q2 onwards Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand should start slowly in 2025, but it could take a decisive turn for the better from Q2 onwards. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PP supply to remain long amid squeezed margins Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of 2025, with producers’ margins likely to remain squeezed. OUTLOOK ’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in 2025, giving chemicals a shot at recovery For all the talk about a soft landing for the US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than 2% for the fifth consecutive year as the labor market remains healthy and consumer spending resilient. OUTLOOK ’25: US NGL demand to rebound moderately Though demand for US natural gas liquids (NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025 due to a general inventory glut, various industry and environmental conditions have feedstocks poised for a moderate demand rebound in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will drive US ethylene market entering new year Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene market heading into 2025 as it enters an unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as 10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going down for planned maintenance during Q1 and Q2. OUTLOOK ’25: US BD poised for demand, export growth as production stabilizes, grows US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at the start of 2025 as outages which limited production in 2024 are resolved, while both exports and demand are expected to grow in the new year. OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PE to see both demand extremes between high cost food-grade PCR and low cost PIR US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets continue to see extreme disparity between sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive grades of both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is expected to persist into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US PP navigating mediocre growth and oversupply US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be relatively less volatile in 2025, following a year where prices changed every month. Higher propylene inventory levels and improved supply expected to stabilize supply/demand dynamics. OUTLOOK ’25: US ACN demand weakness to continue amid oversupply The three-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffs Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports. OUTLOOK ’25: Lackluster US aromatics demand, rising inventories pressure benzene and toluene After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have declined through the latter half of the year, due to soft derivative demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing weak demand, overcapacity The US styrene market enters the new year facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low operating rates. With a light maintenance season ahead, the market’s fate will be driven largely by derivative demand, which continues to face challenging headwinds. OUTLOOK ’25: US PS, EPS demand to remain soft Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain soft into the next year with weak downstream markets, polymer recycling regulations and overall expectations of a smaller growth in the economy for 2025 compared with 2024. OUTLOOK ’25: Ample LatAm PS supply meets poor demand The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the back of weak demand across the region combined with plentiful supply. OUTLOOK ’25: US PET demand expected higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain risks Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) should increase in 2025 if lower inflation and interest rates drive consumption with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year, but the possibilities of a trade war or supply disruption in upstream purified terephthalate acid (PTA) remain concerns. OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PET prices pressured by economic challenges, tariff shifts Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Latin America are expected to soften in H1 2025, driven by changes in import tariffs, lower Asia prices and easing freight rates. OUTLOOK ’25: US BDO demand to strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy, tariffs may be headwinds US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled inflation and lower interest rates, but possible tariffs and changes to electric vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges. OUTLOOK ’25: US caustic soda trajectory to be impacted by PVC length, tariffs The US caustic soda market in the latter half of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on the chlorine side of the molecule. OUTLOOK ’25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challenges The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. The confluence of these factors points to a challenging landscape for producers as they navigate both domestic and international market pressures. OUTLOOK ’25: Latin America PVC market faces challenges from tariffs and instability in H1 Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due to various regional challenges. OUTLOOK ’25: US soda ash facing subdued demand US soda ash is facing subdued demand going into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up. OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PET expects strong beverage demand amid international risk Though the build up to 2025 has been tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both optimism and distrust that the year will keep to its original promise. OUTLOOK ’25: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction Demand declines in US nylon markets which started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2 2025. Demand was weak in multiple application sectors including automotive, industrial, textiles, electrical and electronics. The only application sectors that performed well were packaging and medical. OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demand US phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered. OUTLOOK ’25: US MMA anticipating new supply in new year US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics amid heightened volatility going into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US ABS, PC look to remain pressured with weakened markets Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024 with industries like automotive, household appliances and housing markets not expecting to see increases. OUTLOOK ’25: US polyurethanes brace for Asia overcapacity and US weak demand The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU) products in the US is marked by the expectation of a very slow economic recovery, constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and polyols built in Asia, possible labor strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing issues with the Red Sea’s route. OUTLOOK ’25: US PG, UPR face pressure from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand boost remains While recent sharp declines in propylene have led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG) in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been moderated by buyer interest in winter applications. OUTLOOK ’25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US PA remains sufficiently supplied even with capacity reduction US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a major domestic producer. Supply is expected to be sufficient to meet current demand levels, but any future demand improvement is likely to require support from increased imports. OUTLOOK ’25: US MA facing muted demand expectations US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered expectations for a rebound in demand going into 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance. OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant closure US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the first half of 2025 with price movements tracking upstream propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market next year is the decision by Shell to shutter its production facility in the Netherlands in the first half of the year. OUTLOOK ’25: US melamine to see consequences from US antidumping ruling The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14 February 2024 against melamine imports from Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an investigation from the United States International Trade Commission (US ITC) that is slated to impact the melamine industry at large in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January. OUTLOOK ’25: US base oils seek to manage new normal amid oversupply, demand deterioration Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand is likely to persist into a third year — this year with less optimism for significant domestic demand recovery in automotive and headwinds from additional supply entering the global marketplace. OUTLOOK ’25: Squeezed import margins leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a sharp increase in feedstock costs across the oil palm complex over the last quarter and sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the wider market. OUTLOOK ’25: US H1 glycerine markets to remain relatively tight amid squeezed biodiesel margins, import bottlenecks US H1 glycerine markets are expected to remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME) production in Q1 stemming from pending changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives against the backdrop of sustained import logistics bottlenecks create short-term supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine supplies. OUTLOOK ’25: US epoxy resins grappling with duty, logistics, demand issues US epoxy resins players are trying to formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of duty investigations and guarded sentiment on demand. OUTLOOK ’25: US oxo-alcohols, acrylates, plasticizers see falling feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes potential tariffs Following declines in feedstock prices in the autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols, acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face demand headwinds. OUTLOOK ’25: US etac supply concerns emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more stable but feedstock costs fall After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate (butac) and some glycol ethers have led to volatility in US spot and contract prices in the latter half of the year. While notable declines in upstream costs have not been seen in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on material produced in Mexico may impact domestic availability in 2025. OUTLOOK ’25: Brazil ethanol production strong; market watches forex, Combustivel do Futuro, RenovaBio The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust domestic production and evolving global energy policies. As Brazil continues to position itself as one of the leaders in renewable energy, initiatives like Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set to play a crucial role in driving growth. OUTLOOK ’25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market. OUTLOOK ’25: Gradual demand recovery anticipated for US TiO2 by H2 North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2 2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy.