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Hydrogen25-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s installed capacity of
gas power generation is projected to surpass
150 GW by 2025, representing roughly 6% of the
country’s total installed power generation
capacity.
This presents substantial investment prospects
within China and aligns with the nation’s
ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
Hydrogen, often regarded as a potential fuel
for blending with natural gas, offers a
promising avenue for reducing emissions from
power generation.
In this podcast, ICIS senior LNG analyst Xu Fei
will delve into the mechanics of
hydrogen-fueled gas turbines and their
potential to significantly cut carbon
emissions.
Ammonia24-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–ICIS Hydrogen Foresight data
shows that over the period October 2023-April
2024, the Dutch hydrogen market saw growth
across planned low-carbon hydrogen supply and
demand. However, despite progression across
future buyers and sellers, project progression
has remained muted, with no projects
progressing to final investment decision (FID).
To review the findings of this update, please
see the complete analysis below.
24-Jul-2024
EGPC seeks another five LNG cargoes
Local industry restarts, power cuts suspended
Egypt to bring in up to 26 cargoes over summer
LONDON (ICIS)–Egypt is in the market for another five LNG
cargoes as the country continues to address declining
domestic gas production and soaring summer demand.
Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) has issued a
TTF-linked DES tender covering 13-14 and 25-26 August and
3-4, 12-13 and 21-22 September delivery windows, traders said
on Wednesday.
The two cargoes for delivery in August and the middle cargo
in September would be delivered to Egypt’s Ain Sukhna
terminal, while the first and third September cargoes would
be sent to Jordan’s Aqaba terminal for further pipeline
delivery.
The tender closes on 29 July at 12:00 noon Cairo time and is
valid to 18:00 on the same day.
This is the fourth LNG tender round Egypt has issued covering
the summer period this year, as the country has been forced
to turn from LNG exports to imports.
EGPC has previously been in the market seeking a total of 22
cargoes in three separate rounds.
All cargoes were reported to have been awarded, expect for
the 1-2 September cargo in a two-cargo tender that closed on
22 July, one trader said.
If the latest tender is fully awarded, this could bring a
total of 26 spot cargoes into Egypt from mid-June to
mid-September.
UREA PRODUCERS RESTART
Latest data from association JODI shows a continued decline
in domestic gas production.
Average May production was around 138 million cubic meters
(mcm)/day, down from 142mcm/day in April and 163mcm/day in
May 2023.
However, the flow of LNG seems to have brought some relief to
local industry.
Some Egyptian urea producers shut down for a day last week
but then restarted, sources said, with one source attributing
the ramp up to LNG imports.
Five cargoes have been delivered since the start of July,
according to ICIS data.
As of this week, urea plants in Egypt are running at around
80% capacity on average.
“I believe this will [be sustained] till the end of summer
period,” a urea source said.
“Heard also that old electricity stations have started to
work with fuel oil as an alternative [for] gas,” they added.
Only one of Abu Qir’s prilled urea lines is down, while its
other two lines are running as normal.
The government has also suspended its electricity
load-shedding program from 21 July until mid-September, as
recently announced by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly.
The Prime Minister said the power cuts halted after the
arrival of some LNG cargoes.
The cuts were introduced last summer and resulted in daily
two-to-three hour power cuts across most of the country.
Additional reporting by Deepika Thapliyal.
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Speciality Chemicals24-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Eurozone private sector momentum
almost slowed to a standstill in July, dropping
to a five-month low as new orders fell and
business confidence ebbed.
The composite eurozone purchasing managers’
index (PMI) slipped to 50.1 in the month
compared with 50.9 in June, according to
S&P Global, with manufacturing sinking
further into contraction and service sector
growth slowing.
A PMI score of above 50.0 signifies growth.
Output in Germany sank for the first time in
four months in July, while activity in France
ebbed for the third consecutive month. Business
confidence for the bloc as a whole dropped to
its lowest level in six months which arrested
the spell of new hiring.
The rate of input cost inflation accelerated
but low demand meant that companies pushed
through the price increases at a softer pace,
contributing to the slowest pace of change for
inflation since October.
The decline in manufacturing activity was the
largest monthly fall in 2024, with services
slowing but still managing to keep the region
in overall growth. The manufacturing sector PMI
fell to 45.6 in July from 45.8 in June, while
the service sector index fell from 52.8 to 51.9
month on month.
New export orders fell faster than total new
business as players struggled to secure
international sales, representing the 29th
successive month of decline.
“It’s unsettling how steadily companies in the
manufacturing sector are slashing jobs month by
month. The pace has barely changed over the
last ten months,” said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief
economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, which
helps to produce the data.
Despite the tepid economic data, sticky input
price inflation makes the case for successive
rate cuts more difficult, he added.
“If only growth was considered, you find a
strong argument for a rate cut in September by
the ECB (European Central Bank). However,
prices data did not provide hoped for relief,”
de la Rubia said.
“Our conclusion is that while a September rate
cut will most probably be exercised, it will be
much trickier to follow this path in the months
thereafter, unless the downturn morphs into a
deep recession,” he added.
The unexpected pace of decline for the eurozone
economy may result in economic forecast cuts
down the line, according to Rory Fennessy,
senior economist at Oxford Economics.
“The eurozone’s flash July PMIs corroborate the
message sent by other leading indicators that
the recovery is faltering. If leading
indicators continue to underwhelm, this may
result in a downgrade to our GDP growth
forecasts for H2 2024,” he said.
Momentum for the UK private sector continued to
strengthen despite dynamics seen in the
eurozone, with the composite PMI hitting 52.7
in July compared to 52.3 in June, a two-month
high.
UK manufacturing sector growth outpaced that of
services, reaching a 29-month high of 54.4
compared to 52.4 in the latter industry.
Average prices charged by companies eased but
remain steep due to elevated costs, according
to S&P Global.
Input costs for the service sector eased on the
back of softening wage pressures, but the
manufacturing sector saw the sharpest rise in
costs in a year-and-a-half on the back of Red
Sea logistics disruption.
The slower pace of price increases raises the
odds of a central bank rate cut before autumn,
but the pace of winding down current high
interest levels is likely to be slow, according
to S&P Global Market Intelligence chief
economist Chris Williamson.
“Prices have meanwhile risen at their lowest
rate for three-and-a-half years, further
raising the prospect of a summer rate cut,” he
said.
“However, policymakers will likely take a
cautious approach to loosening policy amid
signs of inflationary pressures pivoting away
from services towards manufacturing, where Red
Sea shipping delays and higher freight prices
are adding to costs again,” he added.
Thumbnail photo: Rotterdam port (Source:
Hollandse Hoogte/Shutterstock)
Polyethylene24-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Watch ICIS senior industry
analyst Joanne Wang discuss the driving factors
behind the China’s low density polyethylene
(LDPE) price fluctuations this year and briefly
discuss prospects for the second half of this
year.
Q2 LDPE prices rose sharply due to
concentrated maintenance at home and abroad.
Imported shipments arrived in late June,
and coupled with limited domestic demand
growth, prices fell.
New facilities may start up in Q4, leading
to further increases in domestic supply.
Crude Oil24-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Taiwan is bracing for the
arrival of Typhoon Gaemi, which is expected to
make a landfall northeast of the island on
Wednesday evening.
Financial markets are closed, as well as
offices in most cities and counties on
Wednesday as the northeastern region is being
pelted by heavy rains.
At 10:15 local time (02:15 GMT), Gaemi was
located around 90 kilometers (km) west of
Taipei and 180 kilometers southeast of Yilan
County, according to Taiwan’s Central Weather
Administration (CWA).
Gaemi was packing maximum winds of 162
kilometers per hour near its center.
Source: Google Maps
In the northwest, Mailiao port, which primarily
serves the Mailiao petrochemical complex, has
been closed since early 23 July and will remain
closed until 06:00 local time on 26 July,
according to a shipping source.
Taiwan’s major petrochemical complexes are in
Toufen and Mailiao in the northwest; and
Ta-sheh and Linyuan in Kaohsiung City in the
south.
The capital of Taipei, along with its
neighboring cities of New Taipei, Keelung, and
Taoyuan, will be closing schools and offices on
Wednesday.
Typhoon warning is currently in effect over
Nantou, Chiayi, Chiayi City, Keelung City,
Yilan, Pingtung, Changhua, New Taipei City,
Hsinchu, Hsinchu City, Taoyuan City, Penghu,
Taichung City, Taipei City, Tainan City,
Taitung, Hualien, Miaoli, Yunlin, Lienchiang,
and Kaohsiung City.
In the Philippines, heavy rains since early
Wednesday triggered widespread flooding in
Metro Manila, prompting suspension of financial
market operations.
The typhoon did not make landfall in the
southeast Asian country but was enhancing a
southwest monsoon resulting in heavy-to-intense
downpour in the northern regions, its state
weather agency said.
The typhoon will likely move across the Taiwan
Strait after making a landfall and hit Fujian
province in southeastern China in the late
afternoon of 26 July.
China’s National Meteorological Center (NMC) on
Wednesday issued an orange alert for Typhoon
Gaemi, which is expected to bring strong wind
and heavy rain to the country’s southern
regions.
After landfall, Gaemi is likely to weaken into
a tropical storm as it tracks north
northwestward over Fujian province late on
25-26 July.
It would weaken further into a tropical
depression and then dissipate as it moves over
Jiangxi province late on 26-27 July, and into
southeastern Hubei province on 27 July,
according to NMC.
Crude Oil24-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s manufacturing sector
contracted in July for the first time in three
months after the preliminary purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.2 from 50.0 in
June, au Jibun Bank said on Wednesday.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion
while a lower number denotes contraction.
This decline signals a marginal deterioration
in Japanese manufacturing business conditions
in June, attributed to a reduction in both
output and new orders, au Jibun Bank said in a
statement on Wednesday.
The fall in new orders was the most significant
since February.
Despite an increase in employment levels,
sustained declines in new orders resulted in
spare capacity within the sector, and backlogs
of work decreased at the sharpest rate in four
months.
Input cost inflation remained high in July,
accelerating to its fastest pace since April
2023.
Japanese consumer inflation rose in June,
putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise
interest rates further, official data showed on
19 July.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) in March hiked
interest rates for the first time in
17 years, ending eight years of negative
interest rates.
The BOJ expects that the recent rise in energy
prices and the phased removal of government
subsidies designed to control inflation will
likely accelerate the consumer price index
(CPI) increase throughout the fiscal year 2025,
offsetting the fading impact of previous import
cost increases on consumer prices.
Core inflation excluding fresh food, the BOJ’s
preferred measure, accelerated to 2.6% in June
from 2.5% in May and from 2.2% in April.
“Going forward, the government plans to renew
energy subsidy programmes from August to
October to counteract the heatwave during the
summertime,” Dutch banking and financial
services firm ING said in a statement.
“This could lower the overall inflation figure,
but as it is temporary, the Bank of Japan is
not expected to be too concerned.”
Potassium Chloride (MOP)23-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Mining major BHP announced the
Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan has
reached a pivotal milestone with construction
having surpassed the 50% completion mark for
stage 1, with stage 2 now underway.
The company said the project should have first
production in 2026 with it holding the
potential to become a major source by the end
of this decade as it could eventually increase
Jansen’s total output to 16-17 million
tonnes/year of muriate of potash (MOP).
BHP total investment in Jansen is approximately
Canadian dollars (C$) 14 billion ($10.2
billion) with the firm saying this marks the
largest investment in its history, as well as
the largest private investment in Saskatchewan.
Having crossed the halfway mark, the focus now
shifts towards the completion of the mill
building and processing plant, port
construction, finalizing infrastructure and
gearing up to handover the project to
operations.
The company said efforts are also being
intensified to prepare the workforce with an
operations-ready mindset as the project gets
closer to having its first ore.
“Reaching the half-way milestone for JS1 is a
testament to the dedication of our Team Jansen
workforce, our contractors and procurement
partners, and the local and Indigenous
communities surrounding the Jansen area,” said
Karina Gistelinck, BHP asset president potash.
“Building one of the largest potash mines in
the world requires an all-hands-on-deck
approach, and the province has really come
together to make a project of this magnitude
possible. Delivering Jansen safely remains our
top priority as we get ready for Jansen
operations in 2026.”
C$1.00 = $0.73
Potassium Sulphate (SOP)23-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Salt Lake Potash Limited (SO4)
has reached a significant milestone in
developing organic sulphate of potash (SOP) in
Australia as it has produced its first volumes
at its Lake Way project in Wiluna, Western
Australia.
With the project in development for over seven
years, SO4 was acquired by Sev.en Global
Investments in October 2022 and it has
subsequently made significant investments in
all aspects of the production process.
This includes the installation of new flotation
units in the process plant which has been
fundamental to successfully managing the
diverse feedstock from the pond network.
The process plant remains in the commissioning
phase, but officials said the production of SOP
after years of effort provides significant
proof of the operating ability of the system.
“This important step confirms the capability of
the SO4 team to conceptualize, design,
construct and operate the SOP mining and
production facilities and achieve world-class
SOP quality parameters,” said Mark Sykes,
Sev.en Global Investments, Australian country
manager.
“We are proud of the entire team, who have
demonstrated a high level of commitment
and endurance to reach a key milestone.”
Sev.en Global said it is looking forward to
bringing the project to full production and
establishing itself in the market to supply
Australian agriculture and global markets with
high-quality sustainable fertilizer suitable
for use in organic farming.
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