HOUSTON–Global chemicals major LyondellBasell has declared force majeure on all rail shipments to Canada after that country’s two largest railroads shut down operations after negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement stalled. The shutdown at Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) began at midnight eastern time on Thursday, with more than 9,000 workers locked out after failing to reach an agreement with their employees’ union. CN and CPKC have issued all-commodity embargoes, according to US railroad Norfolk Southern (NS) in a service alert. The embargos from CN and CPKC cover all NS originated traffic destined for Canada and all Canadian originated traffic destined for NS destinations for all commodities. US railroad CSX issued an embargo on all shipments to and from CN and CPKC that contain highly hazardous, toxic inhalation hazards and poisonous inhalation hazards such as chlorine gas, which is used for water treatment. Container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd told customers it has ships in various stages of loading and unloading in Vancouver, Canada but has three vessels on various services that are under review because of the rail disruption. On 21 August, the carrier said it is ceasing taking new rail bookings originating in the US and loading via a Canadian gateway. Following is a map of the rail network and main chemical production hubs in Canada. BACKGROUND The simultaneous rail disruption at CN and CPKC has been looming over the chemical and other industries for months. Canada’s chemical production is heavily geared towards export, with 80% destined for foreign markets – primarily the US, accounting for 80% of exports. Rail transportation plays a crucial role, handling over 70% of Canadian chemical producers’ shipments, with some relying entirely on rail. Officials from the chemical and other industries have repeatedly warned about the impacts simultaneous disruptions at both railroads could have on Canada’s already weak economy and on trade with the US. With additional reporting by Nurluqman Suratman and Stefan Baumgarten Thumbnail photo: A Canadian National train. (Photo by Shutterstock)

TORONTO (ICIS)–As the unprecedented work stoppage at both of Canada’s freight railroads began on Thursday at 00:01 Eastern Time, it remains unclear how or when it may end as the government is reluctant to intervene. Long-awaited rail shutdown starts Government reluctant to intervene Industry warns of economic and public health impacts Following lockout and strike notices, more than 9,000 workers at railroads Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) and Canadian National (CN) were locked out at midnight, labor union Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) and the rail companies confirmed. TCRC said that the parties were still far apart in their negotiations but added that it would remain at the bargaining table. CPKC called on the government for binding arbitration to end the dispute, but Canada’s federal labor minister last week already rejected a similar call by CN. Speaking to Canadian public broadcaster CBC/RDI a few hours before the rail shutdown began, minister Steven MacKinnon said that the government would rely on the collective bargaining process to resolve the dispute, which is about wages, benefits, work scheduling and safety issues. Collective bargaining was “a tried-and-true method” that helped create prosperity for Canadian companies and workers and build the country over decades, he said. “It works when people put the work in that is required to get a deal, to make those compromises at the table, and those are the most enduring results, and that’s our plan, that’s the only plan,” the minister said. Asked about using “back-to-work legislation” to end the dispute, he noted that Parliament is currently not sitting. However, the government was “always prepared for any eventuality”, he indicated but did not provide details. INDUSTRY SAYS GOVERNMENT MUST ACT NOW Canadian and US trade groups, including the US Chamber of Commerce, have called on the Canadian government to step in and end the dispute, potentially through binding arbitration, or if need be, back-to-work legislation. The two railroads each day ship goods worth more than Canadian dollar (C$) 1 billion (US$735 million), and the shutdown threatens to shut down the country’s entire economy and harm trade with the US, the groups said. Bob Masterson, president of trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC), said that the rail disruption was no longer an ordinary labor dispute that could be resolved through bargaining between two parties, with the government standing on the sidelines, but rather involved important public safety and health issues. One of the railroads stopped accepting critical chemicals, in particular chlorine and derivatives for use in drinking water, already on 12 August, as it began winding down operations ahead of the work stoppage, and the other railroad stopped accepting those products shortly afterwards, he said. With about 95% of the population relying on treated drinking water, as of 12 August the rail dispute therefore became “the interest of every Canadian across the country”, Masterson said. Due to its dangerous nature, under law chlorine can only be moved by rail, he noted. The country was “on the road to a public health crisis” and municipalities may soon need to issue water boil advisories, “if you don’t interrupt this now and return service on the railways,” he said. “The train towards a crisis is moving, it gets faster and harder to stop every day, and the time to stop it is now, and the only people that have the responsibility and the tools and authority to do so are the government of Canada,” he said. The chemical industry was at the front end of this supply squeeze, “and we want all elected officials to be focused on that”, he added. HARM TO THE ECONOMY In a separate statement to ICIS, trade group CIAC reminded of the impacts of the rail disruption on the overall Canadian economy, the chemical industry, and chemical trade with the US. In Canada, about 80% of chemical production goes into export, with about 80% of those exports going to the US, according to CIAC. At the same time, Canada-based chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. US-Canada chemical trade, 2023: Canadian exports of industrial chemicals to the US: Canadian dollar C$18.9 billion, according to CIAC data. Canadian imports of industrial chemicals from the US: C$17.5 billion. More than C$76 million of industrial chemical products move on Canada’s rail network daily, which comes to about C$28 billion a year. Industrial chemicals include basic chemicals, synthetic resins, rubbers and synthetic fibers. Chemicals account for nearly 10% of total Canadian freight rail traffic. Furthermore, the chemical industry’s customers in the automobile, forest products, construction, minerals and other industries rely on rail to ship their products. According to estimates by the Conference Board of Canada, a two-week rail shutdown would result in a C$3 billion loss in nominal GDP this year. A four-week shutdown could lower GDP by nearly C$10 billion in 2024 and result in nearly 50,000 job losses, the board said. The lost income would be felt by households, businesses and government, the board said. Canada’s trucking industry was not a viable alternative to rail as it does not have the required capacity or enough drivers, the board noted. Industry commentators said that the government could not allow the rail stoppage to last more than 7-10 days, after which it would likely need to use back-to-work legislation or binding arbitration to end the dispute. However, binding arbitration takes time, and even with Parliament sitting and working at an expedited pace, it would take a couple of days for back-to-work legislation to become law. In another complication, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal-led minority government relies on support from the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) to keep it in power. The NDP, however, is close to labor unions and has warned Trudeau against imposing binding arbitration or back-to-work legislation. While the work stoppage started on 22 August, its negative impacts for chemical producers and other industries kicked in earlier as they needed to rearrange logistics and prepare for potential plant shutdowns. In the chemical industry, it can be costly to ramp down and restart large petrochemical plants as they are in continuous operation and require a reliable, uninterrupted rail service. Depending on how long a rail disruption lasts, it can take weeks, if not months, for the chemical producers to get production rate back to normal. The following table by the American Association of Railroads (AAR) shows Canadian freight rail traffic, including chemicals, for the week ended 17 August and the first 33 weeks of 2024: (US$1 = C$1.36) Thumbnail photo source: CN Focus article by Stefan Baumgarten

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Whereas it might be reasonably straightforward to assess the future of China’s direct chemicals exports (today I look at polyester fibres and polypropylene as examples of the kind trade tension Heat Maps you need to create), the outlook for China’s exports of manufactured goods is murkier. See today’s blog post for a full explanation, and the see the summary below: In practical terms, because China completely dominates some manufacturing chains, there may be no alternatives to China. It could be in the best interests of the West to do “win, win” deals with China. Take electric vehicles as an example. If you assume that EVs are going to dominate the EU market, and that the EU auto industry cannot catch up with China, why not invite China in to build EV factories in the EU, thereby protecting local jobs? This is what the Americans did with the Japanese auto industry back in the 1980s. Or industrial policy could work in the opposite direction as the China split with the West widens. A good example is the US Inflation Reduction Act. This might over the long-term even apply to value chains where China dominates including EVs. The split could widen to the point where we are much less dependent on China for everything from our smartphone components to our polyester shirts. Or in practical terms, will, as I said, deals be done and the world muddles through via Chinese car factories in Europe and exports from third-party countries like Turkey, Vietnam and Mexico? (Chinese components go to these countries, are assembled and move onto the West, thereby getting around the “sound and fury” signifying not a great deal of antidumping duties. This to some extent is already happening).Now that the Chemicals Supercycle is over, much more in-depth scenario planning is essential. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Chemplast Sanmar plans to invest rupee (Rs) 1.6 billion ($19 million) to expand the capacity at its custom manufactured chemical division (CMCD) at Berigai in the southern Tamil Nadu state. The increase in capacity will help the company cater to growing demand in various industrial sectors, a company source said. Chemplast commissioned the first phase of the CMCD in September 2023 and expects to bring the second phase on stream by September 2025, the source added. The CMCD project which produces advanced intermediates for the agrochemical, pharmaceuticals and fine chemicals segments, will help the company expand into fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals, broaden its portfolio and access new markets and customers, he said. “We have recently signed a new letter of intent (LOI) with an agrochemical innovator for an advanced intermediate for a new active ingredient. This is the fifth LOI that we have signed over the past 20 months,” the source added. In addition to the CMCD division, Chemplast has a production capacity of 107,000 tonnes/year of specialty paste polyvinyl chloride (PVC) from its units at Cuddalore and Mettur in Tamil Nadu. Chemplast’s wholly owned subsidiary Chemplast Cuddalore Vinyls Ltd operates 331,000 tonnes/year of suspension PVC capacity in Tamil Nadu. The company also produces caustic soda, chlorochemicals, hydrogen peroxide at its three manufacturing facilities in the Tamil Nadu state and in Karaikal in the union territory of Puducherry. ($1 = Rs83.94)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Canada’s two largest railways have shut their operations after labor contract negotiations hit an impasse. The shutdown at the Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) began at midnight eastern time on Thursday, with more than 9,000 workers locked out after failing to reach an agreement with their employees’ union. “CN has formally locked out employees represented by [rail labor union] Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) as of 22 August at 00:01 eastern time, after the union did not respond to another offer by CN in a final attempt to avoid a labour disruption,” CN said in a statement. “Without an agreement or binding arbitration, CN had no choice but to finalize a safe and orderly shutdown and proceed with a lockout.” CPKC in a separate statement announced that it will lock out employees in two stages. The lockout will first affect members of the TCRC Train and Engine (T&E) division, beginning at 00:01 eastern time on Thursday. Later, at 00:01 Mountain Time on the same day, members of the TCRC Rail Traffic Controller (RCTC) division will also be locked out. “CPKC is acting to protect Canada’s supply chains, and all stakeholders, from further uncertainty and the more widespread disruption that would be created should this dispute drag out further resulting in a potential work stoppage occurring during the fall peak shipping period,” the company said. “Delaying resolution to this labor dispute will only make things worse.” The simultaneous rail disruption at CN and CPKC has been looming over the chemical and other industries for months. Canada’s chemical production is heavily geared towards export, with 80% destined for foreign markets – primarily the US, accounting for 80% of exports. Rail transportation plays a crucial role, handling over 70% of Canadian chemical producers’ shipments, with some relying entirely on rail. Officials from the chemical and other industries have repeatedly warned about the impacts simultaneous disruptions at both railroads could have on Canada’s already weak economy and on trade with the US.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Thailand’s national oil and gas firm PTT is conducting a strategic review of its businesses and ls looking for potential partners in downstream operations. “PTT has been reviewing and improving its business strategy and model regularly in line with the changing competitive environment of the industry,” the company told ICIS in an e-mailed statement on Thursday. “Finding a strong partnership is one of tools that PTT may consider which there are several ways of partnership, not be limited to only the divestment, it can be a joint ventures or other methods,” it said. PTT CEO Kongkrapan Intarajang was quoted on 21 August by newswire agency Bloomberg as saying that the company is looking for partners to provide expertise and funding for some of its petrochemical and refinery units. PTT group’s petrochemical operations include refining, production of olefins, aromatics, polymers, fertilizers, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and base oils, as well as trading of petrochemical products. These operations are carried out through subsidiaries PTT Global Chemical, Thai Oil, and IRPC “We are in talks with several potential investors who are interested in taking stakes in subsidiaries to gain a gateway for expansion in southeast Asia,” Intarajang was quoted as saying by Bloomberg. “We will be quite careful about any new partners. They must have the technology and expertise that can add a lot of value.” PTT said that “there is no conclusion regarding the news related to petrochemical and refinery business now”. Notwithstanding its pursuit of strategic partnerships, the company said that PTT intends to retain controlling stakes in its key business units. This will ensure that “PTT can have majority control in order to align the goals of the entire PTT group, as all flagship companies are important parts of PTT’s strategy,” it added.

TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada’s federal government needs to exercise its authority and act quickly on the complete freight rail stoppage, set to start midnight at 00:01 Eastern Time, trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) said. The simultaneous rail disruption at both of the country’s freight railroads, Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), has been looming over the chemical and other industries for months. It was apparent that the rail labor dispute could not be resolved through collective bargaining, CIAC told ICIS in an update on Wednesday. The government therefore should impose binding arbitration, with a prohibition on the right to strike/lockout, the group said. Failing that, parliamentarians could be recalled to pass back-to-work legislation, CIAC said. “We believe it is important for the government to act sooner rather than later to mitigate any impacts to the Canadian economy and the workers who support it, and our trading relationships,” it said. It was government’s and parliament’s role to protect the public interest, from both a public safety perspective and in terms of protecting Canadian workers and businesses broadly from the economic harm that was already being caused by the pending rail stoppage, the group said. As for public safety, CIAC noted in particular the continued rail supply of chlorine to municipalities to ensure safe drinking water. LEARNING FROM THE US Compared with Canada, the US under its Railway Labor Act (RLA), 1926, was more adept at ensuring that railways keep operating during labor disputes, CIAC said. The RLA nearly eliminates the risk of shutdowns while allowing for business and labor to negotiate, the group said. In fact, there have been very few rail labor disruptions in the US over the past 100 years, CIAC said, adding: “Just one, lasting one day.” CIAC is advocating that Canada follow the US approach in order to avoid the near-annual disruptions of Canada’s rail and port infrastructure, it said. CHEMICALS AND RAIL In Canada, about 80% of chemical production goes into export, with about 80% of those exports going to the US, according to CIAC. At the same time, Canada-based chemical producers rely on rail to ship more than 70% of their products, with some exclusively using rail. US-Canada chemical trade, 2023: Canadian exports of industrial chemicals to the US: Canadian dollar (C$)18.9 billion ($13.9 billion), according to CIAC data. Canadian imports of industrial chemicals from the US: C$17.5 billion in 2023. More than C$76 million of industrial chemical products move on Canada’s rail network daily, which comes to about C$28 billion a year. Industrial chemicals include basic chemicals, synthetic resins, rubbers and synthetic fibers. Chemicals account for nearly 10% of total Canadian freight rail traffic. CIAC members see reliable rail services as a key factor in deciding whether to locate a new facility or expand operations in Canada, the group said. Likewise, investors see rail service as essential when they are “looking to Canada to take advantage of our skilled labor and abundant and well-priced natural resources”, it added. CANADIAN POLITICSAlthough the chemical and other industries have repeatedly warned about the impacts simultaneous disruptions at both railroads could have on Canada’s weakening economy and on trade with the US, the federal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has yet to act decisively. While CIAC declined to speculate about the reasons for the government’s hesitation, political commentators noted that Trudeau’s Liberal-led minority government relies on the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) to keep it in power. Earlier this week, the NDP, which is close to labor unions, warned Trudeau against imposing binding arbitration or back-to-work legislation, as this would undermine the rail workers’ right to bargain for collective agreements. If the NDP withdraws its support in parliament, the government would fall. In current opinion polls, the Liberals are well behind the opposition Conservatives. Map by Miguel Rodriguez Fernandez Rail labor union Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) on Sunday served the required 72-hour strike notice on CPKC, following CPKC’s earlier lockout notice, and CN served a 72-hour lockout notice on TCRC. The railroads continued to wind down operations on Wednesday ahead of the start of the work stoppage on Thursday. Trudeau said in webcast remarks to media on Wednesday that the government was following the issue “extremely closely”, adding that it was in the best interest of the railroads and the union to find a negotiated resolution. Federal labor minister Steven MacKinnon, who met with the railroads and TCRC on Tuesday, continues to press for a negotiated settlement of the labor dispute, which is about wages, benefits, work scheduling and safety issues. “Get a deal at the table. Workers, farmers, businesses and all Canadians are counting on it,” he said on social media. MacKinnon last week rejected CN’s call to refer the dispute to the Canadian Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) for binding arbitration. Industry commentators said that the government could not allow the rail stoppage to last more than 7-10 days, after which it would likely need to use back-to-work legislation or binding arbitration to end the dispute. The following table by the American Association of Railroads (AAR) shows Canadian freight rail traffic, including chemicals, for the week ended 17 August and the first 33 weeks of 2024: ($1=C$1.36) Thumbnail photo source: CPKC

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s chemical exports rose 12% year on year to yen (Y) 1.04 trillion in July, driven in part by increased plastic materials shipments abroad, with a weaker yen also contributing to the inflated trade figures overall, official data showed on Wednesday. Trade deficit of Y622 billion recorded in July, reversing June surplus Overall exports to key trade partner China increase 7.2% in July Yen hit 38-year low against US dollar in July The growth in July chemical exports extends the upward trend to seven consecutive months, building on favorable low base effects following a string of contractions throughout most of 2023. The country’s exports of plastic materials rose by 16.6% year on year to Y303.8 billion in July, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) said in a statement. By volume, exports of plastic materials rose by 8.9% year on year to 471,703 tonnes. Shipments of organic chemicals rose by 19.4% year on year to Y185.5 billion in July. Exports of motor vehicles rose by 6.2% year on year to Y1.69 trillion in July, while shipments of motor vehicle parts were up by 4.4% at Y376 billion. Japan’s overall exports rose by 10.3% year on year to Y9.62 trillion in July, while imports were up 16.6% at Y10.2 trillion. This resulted in a trade deficit of around Y622 billion, reversing the surplus of about Y224 billion in June. By region, shipments to the US rose 7.3% year on year, a slightly slower pace than the previous month, while exports to China increased 7.2%. In contrast, shipments to the EU declined 5.3% year on year. WEAKER YEN INFLATING EXPORT FIGURESThe MOF reported that that the yen averaged 159.77 against the US dollar in July, marking a 12.3% decline in value compared to the same period last year. The yen plummeted to a 38-year low against the US dollar on 3 July, breaching the 162-per-dollar threshold for the first time since December 1986, as divergent monetary policies between Japan and the US continued to drive the currency’s decline. Higher interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive due to higher yields compared with Japanese assets. The yen has made strong gains after the BOJ’s decision on 31 July to raise interest rates to levels not seen since 2007, following the one on 19 March this year when the central bank lifted a negative interest rate policy and ended equity purchases and yield curve controls. On Wednesday, the yen was trading at around 145.5 to the dollar. The rate has fluctuated over the last 30 days, with a high of 156.9 and a low of 144.7. EXPORTS PROPELLING ECONOMY TO RECOVERY After a two-quarter slump, Japan’s economy bounced back in the April-June period, posting an annualized growth rate of 3.1%, driven by a resurgence in consumer spending and continued exports growth. “We expect the latest growth rebound to extend into Q3 supported by an extension of the consumption rebound, aided by influx of tourists and accelerated tech investments,” Alvin Liew, senior economist at Singapore-based UOB Global Economics & Markets Research said. The rebound in consumption is likely to encourage the central bank to stay the course on its monetary policy normalization path, but recent market volatility may prompt the central bank to exercise greater caution, Liew said. “We continue to expect the BOJ to stay on the rate tightening trajectory although it may not be a continuous cycle and likely to be a limited normalization path.” Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The European Commission (EC) has announced a draft decision to impose up to 36.3% definitive countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (EVs) from China. The draft rates are lower than the provisional duties published on 4 July and took effect on 5 July, the commission said on 20 August.  China car companies Definitive duties (draft) Provisional duties BYD 17.0% 17.4% Geely 19.3% 19.9% SAIC 36.3% 37.6% Other cooperating companies 21.3% 20.8% All other non-cooperating companies 36.3% 37.6% The Commission said that definitive measures must be imposed no later than four months after imposition of provisional duties and definitive findings will be published by 30 October 2024 at the latest. It granted a lower individual duty rate of 9% to US EV maker Tesla as it was classified as an exporter from China at this stage, down from the 20.8% provisional rate. The duties, once finalized, will be in force for five years. In a response to EC’s decision, China’s Ministry of Commerce said that the EU’s ruling discriminates between different types of Chinese companies which distorted the results of the investigation. “The final ruling was based on the ‘facts’ unilaterally identified by the EU, rather than the facts recognized by both sides. China firmly opposes this and is highly concerned,” the ministry said. The China Association of Automotive Manufacturers (CAAM) voiced strong opposition to the decision, saying that the European Commission seriously “distorted the facts” of China’s EV industry. The EU duties bring great risk and uncertainties to Chinese companies’ operations and investment in the bloc, damage their business confidence, as well as impact EU’s development of EV industry, the association said. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which account for more than a third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle. EVs and associated battery markets provide growth opportunity for the chemical industry, with chemical producers separately developing battery materials, as well as specialty polymers and adhesives for the environment-friendly vehicles. Thumbnail image: Cars for export at Yantai port in China – 07 August 2024 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)