TORONTO (ICIS)–Fallout from the policies and tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump will inevitably affect Canada’s economy, in particular the manufacturing sector, according to Oxford Economics. US tariffs and Canada’s retaliation Shrinking population Relaxation of mortgage lending rules TRUMP PRESIDENCY The President-elect has proposed increased fiscal stimulus, higher tariffs and curbs on immigration – all impacting Canada. The stimulus, including tax cuts and increased defense spending, will provide the US economy with an initial boost, Tony Stillo, Oxford Economics’ director for Canada, and economist Michael Davenport said in a webinar. Over the first half of Trump’s four-year term, the US stimulus could provide upside to the Canadian economy, “but not a whole lot”, Davenport said. As Trump’s presidency then progresses into its second half, the boost from the stimulus would fade and a drag from his tariffs would set in, slowing down GDP growth, he said. Trump has proposed to raise tariffs by 10-20% on all imports, and by 60% on imports from China. In the case of Canada, Oxford Economics assumes that Trump will impose a 10% tariff on about 10% of US imports from Canada, starting in 2026/2027, targeted at steel, aluminum and other base metals, and that Canada will respond with counter tariffs. US-Canada energy trade is not likely to be subjected to tariffs, they said. The impacts on Canada will be higher inflation. Canada’s central bank will recognize the higher inflation outlook and react by hiking rates in 2026, Davenport said. The Oxford experts think that Trump will likely use the tariff threat as a bargaining chip in the upcoming renegotiations of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade pact. However, they would not rule out a more severe “full-blown” Trump presidency, with a 10% import tariff on all Canadian imports, leading to much more significant impacts – in terms of inflation and monetary policies – in Canada. “A full-blown Trump scenario”, and Canada’s retaliation, would be a negative for trade in heavy manufacturing sectors such as autos, base metals, chemicals and chemical products, rubber and plastics products, and autos, among others, Davenport said. While Canada’s manufacturing sector would be most directly exposed to rising import costs from the retaliatory tariffs, the much larger impact on Canada’s economy would come from weaker aggregate demand due to higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, elevated uncertainties and lower consumer confidence, Davenport said. As higher inflation and interest rates squeeze Canadian household budgets there would be big impacts on sectors such as construction and services, he said. Should Trump – contrary to Oxford’s expectations – decide not to go through with his tariffs, then his stimulus measures should be a positive for Canada’s economy, in line with the often-used phrase “What’s good for the US economy is good for Canada’s economy”, he said. However, “we think it’s most likely that Trump does impose substantial tariffs on countries, including Canada, and there is a risk there that tariffs could be more widespread”, he said. In addition to the Trump tariffs and policies, the course of Canada’s economy will also be influenced by a decline in the country’s population and by a recently announced relaxation in mortgage lending rules, the Oxford experts said. POPULATION Following years of soaring population growth, with nearly one million people per year added over the past two years alone, the Canadian government announced it would restrict immigration. Here is a link to a recent video in which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau explains the measures. The restrictions will lead to a decline in the country’s population, marking the first decline since the country was founded in its current form in 1867, Stillo said. The contraction in the population will reduce both supply and demand in the economy, meaning that the economy will shrink, he said. Over the mid-term, it will reduce the unemployment rate, lead to wage growth and to moderately higher inflation, he said. As the tighter jobs market and the Trump tariffs raise inflation, Canada’s central bank will react towards the end of 2026 by raising rates, he said. On the positive side, a tighter jobs market and a higher cost of labor should incentivize capital spending, he said. Also, lower population growth would ease Canada’s housing squeeze, he said. Oxford estimates that with a smaller population, Canada will need 3.7 million new homes to restore housing affordability by 2035, down from its previous estimate of 4.2 million homes. Stillo added that a likely change in government in Canada – with the opposition Conservatives ousting Trudeau’s Liberals – could lead to even tougher curbs on immigration. The Conservatives are well ahead of the Liberals in opinion polls on the elections, which will need to be held before November 2025. Contrary to the government’s plans, however, Canada could soon face an unwanted surge in its population due to a wave of undocumented immigrants from the US, where the President-elect has committed to mass deportations, he noted. MORTGAGE RULES Recently announced relaxations to Canadian mortgage rules will affect not only housing but also the broader economy. Effective 15 December, the government will allow 30-year fixed-rate mortgages for first-time home buyers and widen the eligibility for mortgage insurance. The government also removed a “stress test” for existing mortgage borrowers who switch lenders. Combined, the relaxations will boost household cashflows and “unlock” a new pool of home buyers, Davenport said. They will improve housing affordability, driving up housing sales but also raising prices, he said. Overall, Oxford Economics expects the mortgage measures to improve household finances “in a sustained way”, starting as soon as early 2025, and it expects them to “be key in underpinning a pickup in consumer spending and a pickup in housing”, he said. However, while the measures will support economic growth, they will “exacerbate Canada’s long-standing household debt issues” – meaning that households will remain vulnerable to interest rate shocks and losses of jobs or income, he said. Canada’s household debt is currently much higher than the US debt was just before the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the Oxford experts noted. Shortly after the Oxford webinar ended on Thursday, the federal government announced new debt-financed short-term stimulus measures, valued at more than Canadian dollar (C$) 6 billion (US$4.3 billion), which, according to economists, could push up inflation. The stimulus includes a removal of the sales tax from a number of goods (including wine, beer and ciders) for two months, from mid-December to mid-February, and a C$250 tax rebate for 18.7 million “working Canadians”. (US$1=C$1.4) Thumbnail of photo Trudeau (left) meeting Trump in Washington in 2019 during Trump’s first presidency; photo source: Government of Canada

LONDON (ICIS)–Countries such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have submitted a letter to the European Commission calling for customs duty to be imposed on imports of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, the Polish Ministry of Development and Technology has confirmed. The duty being discussed is 30-40% for nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers. Market participants believe a duty is unlikely to be imposed given Europe’s dependence on Russian fertilizer, especially when gas prices are rising, which could hit domestic production in Europe. European buyers have delayed imports, including of urea, to the first quarter of 2025. It is unlikely any government would want to antagonize the farming community further when there have been protests by farmers across many countries over the cost of inputs and taxes. Domestic producers, including in northwest Europe such as Germany, have been campaigning for duties on Russian fertilizers, but met with no success. Local producers say imports are available at competitive prices, partly due to the low cost of Russian natural gas. This puts pressure on European producers, particularly when it comes to remaining competitive while maintaining profitability. The concern is that the lower Russian prices could lead to an oversupply, creating unfair competition for European suppliers who may not be able to match those prices. There is also a broader concern about Europe, and Germany in particular, becoming too dependent on Russian resources – both in terms of urea and potentially other agricultural inputs. Data from the first eight months of the year shows an increase of more than 50% in fertilizer imports to the EU from Russia compared with the same period last year. In January-August, Russia was the biggest supplier of urea to Poland, at 426,342 tonnes, more than double the 207,981 tonnes in the same period of 2023, according to customs data. Additional reporting by Julia Meehan Thumbnail image source: Shutterstock

LONDON (ICIS)–Eurozone business activity fell in November with confidence in the year-ahead outlook also weakening. The decline in output came as business activity in the service sector decreased for the first time in 10 months to join manufacturing in contraction territory, S&P Global said in its flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) composite and services business activity indexes both hit a 10-month low, with manufacturing and manufacturing output at two-month lows, according to survey data collected 12-20 November. HCOB PMI Indexes Nov Oct Composite Output 48.1 50.0 Services Business Activity 49.2 51.6 Manufacturing Output 45.1 45.8 Manufacturing 45.2 46.0 A figure above 50 in the index indicates expansion, and below 50 contraction. “For the first time since the opening month of the year, both monitored sectors saw output decrease in November as services joined manufacturing in contraction,” S&P said. Business sentiment for the year ahead fell sharply and was the lowest since September 2023, mainly driven by the service sector where optimism fell to a two-year low. Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at HCOB, said recent political events may have been a factor in the weaker business performance. “It is no surprise really, given the political mess in the biggest eurozone economies lately – France’s government is on shaky ground, and Germany’s heading for early elections,” the economist said. “Throw in the election of Donald Trump as US president, and it is no wonder the economy is facing challenges. Businesses are just navigating by sight.” In the UK, business activity also fell in November to end a 12-month period of sustained expansion. All  the PMI indicators were down from the previous month, with a sustained drop in private sector employment amid weaker business optimism and rising cost inflation.

– 4 LNG terminals expected – 10 gas power plants proposed – Robust growth market for LNG SINGAPORE (ICIS) –The Philippines is considered a robust growth point of LNG demand in Asia. It has a population of 115.8 million, densely concentrated around major city clusters that also drive the country’s fast economic growth and industrialization. Natural gas plays a significant role in the Philippines’ economy, especially in the energy sector, followed by industrial and transportation – 98% of Philippines’ gas supply goes to the power sector. Natural gas-fired power generation accounts for around 21% of the total energy mix in the Philippines. ICIS estimates the Philippines’ power demand will grow at a rate around 6.7%. The primary source of natural gas supply in the Philippines has been the Malampaya Gas Field, which accounts for more than 99% of domestic production. Operational since October 2001, the offshore gas field has been declining from 2022 and is estimated to be depleted by early 2027. Consequently, imported LNG has emerged as an option to fuel the country’s energy transition, backfilling the domestic supply gap and fulfilling fast-rising gas demand. Philippines began to import LNG in 2023 and received 17 cargoes for 2024 by the time of this article. ICIS Foresight expects the country’s LNG imports for 2024 to reach 1.17 million tonnes, twice as much its 2023 imports. Currently Philippines has two LNG receiving terminals. The first LNG project, Philippines LNG (PHLNG) operated by Singapore’s AG&P, uses the ADNOC’s Ish as a storage unit and onshore regasification equipment to supply gas to San Miguel Global Power’s 1,278 MW Ilijan CCPP (combined cycle power plant). The second terminal, Batangas FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) owned by utility First Gen uses the BW Batangas and fires four nearby power plants. The country has four upcoming LNG terminals that will come online through 2025-2026, adding a total regasification capacity of 10.72mpta. The government envisions another 3.98mpta LNG capacity to meet supply requirement by 2050. Construction for more gas power plants are also on the way. As of March 2023, Luzon alone has 10 gas to power project proposals, which will add 10.2GW electricity generation capacity accumulatively. (Yuanda Wang in Shanghai contributed to this article)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s GDP growth is projected to slow to 1-3% in 2025, as overall economic growth in its key trading partners is anticipated to ease slightly from 2024 levels, official estimates showed on Friday. 2024 GDP growth forecast raised to “around 3.5%” Global economic uncertainties have increased Singapore’s Q3 petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year In particular, the US economy is expected to slow due to easing labor market conditions, although investment growth will provide some support, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) said in a statement. In contrast, the eurozone will likely see a pickup in growth, driven by stronger consumption and investment recovery amid accommodative monetary policy. In Asia, China’s GDP growth will moderate due to weaker exports from announced tariff hikes, but domestic consumption will cushion the slowdown as consumer sentiment improves and the property market stabilizes. Meanwhile, key Southeast Asian economies will experience steady growth, fueled by the upswing in global electronics demand. GLOBAL GROWTH RISKS WIDEN “Global economic uncertainties have increased, including uncertainty over the policies of the incoming US administration, with the risks tilted to the downside,” the MTI said. Intensifying geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions could increase oil prices, production costs, and policy uncertainty, ultimately weakening global investment, trade, and growth, the ministry warned. Moreover, disruptions to the global disinflation process may lead to tighter financial conditions, desynchronized monetary policies, and exposed financial vulnerabilities, it added. Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) are projected to grow 1.0-3.0% in 2025, following a modest expansion of around 1.0% in 2024, a separate statement by trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore said on Friday. “While the external environment is generally supportive of growth, uncertainties in the global economy such as a more challenging and competitive trade environment could weigh on global trade and growth,” it said. 2024 GROWTH UPGRADEDFor 2024, the country’s economic growth forecast for 2024 was raised to around 3.5%, above the range of its previous prediction of 2-3%, the MTI said. Singapore’s stronger-than-expected economic showing in the first nine months and updated assessments of global and domestic economic conditions drove the upward revision in the GDP forecast. For the first three quarters of the year, GDP growth averaged 3.8% year on year. Singapore’s economy grew 5.4% year on year in the third quarter of this year, up from the advanced estimates of 4.1%. In terms of trade, Singapore’s petrochemical exports grew by 8.5% year on year in the third quarter, slowing from the 14.9% expansion in the preceding three months. Singapore’s NODX grew by 9.2% year on year on year in the third quarter, swinging from the 6.5% contraction in the preceding three months. Singapore serves as a major petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with its Jurong Island hub hosting over 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.0 in November from the final reading of 49.2 in October on weaker output and new orders, preliminary estimates from au Jibun Bank showed on Friday. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion while a lower number denotes contraction. The November figure marks the fifth consecutive month of contraction for the manufacturing sector of the world’s third-biggest economy. Both output and new orders experienced declines in the latest survey period, with output falling by the largest degree since April, au Jibun Bank said in a statement. Spare capacity increased due to sustained declines in new orders and a resulting fall in backlogs. Additionally, firms decreased employment levels for the first time since February. Although input cost inflation eased to a seven-month low, it remained steep, and the rate of charge inflation was the highest since July.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer developer Genesis Fertilizers announced it has signed a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) agreement with South Korean construction firm DL Engineering & Construction (DL E&C) for their proposed low-carbon nitrogen fertilizer facility in Saskatchewan, Canada. The company said DL E&C’s expertise in world-class fertilizer plant design is evident in their successful of the Ma’aden Ammonia III project in Saudi Arabia and exemplifies their ability to deliver complex projects on time and under budget. Genesis Fertilizers also noted that the FEED phase will establish the essential technical and design groundwork for building a facility that is both safe and efficient with DL E&C set to collaborate with Canada’s PCL Construction throughout preconstruction. They will be charged with creating a comprehensive blueprint, which integrates advanced carbon capture technology, that can deliver sequestration of up to 1 million tonnes of CO₂ annually. The FEED phase is scheduled to start in December and begin setting defined timelines for the project as the company is targeting to have commercial operations underway by 2029. “This FEED agreement is a monumental step in our journey to deliver sustainable, low-carbon fertilizer for Western Canadian farmers,” said Genesis Fertilizers CEO Jason Mann. “Thanks to years of planning, and support from our farming community, we now have a clear path forward for the design of the facility.” “While there is still work to do to finance and construct a cutting-edge fertilizer plant, we are excited to collaborate with DL E&C and PCL Construction to make this vision a reality and bring lasting benefits to Canadian agriculture.” As proposed, there would eventually be both ammonia and urea production at the site with plans to have 75% of output for farmer commitments with the balance sold on the open market. As a vertically integrated, farmer-owned initiative, Genesis Fertilizers intends to return profits directly to its farmer-owners and the company said it recognizes the critical role of farmers, whose support to date has driven this initiative forward. The company said through this project it is seeking to reduce dependency on imports of nitrogen fertilizers by providing a sustainable, farmer-owned alternative.

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Next year’s annual summit of the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) will take place in Cancun, Mexico, the organizers confirmed on Thursday. APLA 2025 will take place in November 2025 in the Mexican resort city in Cancun, Mexico. According to APLA, 940 delegates registered for this year’s annual summit, which concluded on Thursday in Cartagena, Colombia. That figure represented an increase of 4.4% compared to the 900 registered attendees at last year’s annual summit in Sao Paulo. “In 2024, we have had a record number of registered delegates as well as of participating companies, with 350 firms,” said APLA’s director general, Manuel Diaz. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia.

CARTAGENA, Colombia (ICIS)–Logistics are getting even more challenging, as climate change, armed conflicts and tariffs are making planning difficult, shipping experts said on a panel discussion at the Latin American Petrochemical and Chemical Association (APLA) Annual Meeting. “External threats are happening in a more frequent manner. So it’s harder for companies to plan and organize logistics and do just-in-time (JIT),” said Natalia Gil Betancourt, economic research leader at the Port of Cartagena. “Because of the armed conflict in the Red Sea, cargoes take 10-14 days longer and that has an impact and cost transferred to the end consumer,” she added. Trade wars and tariffs, part of deglobalization, along with reshoring, will also generate higher costs for the consumer, she noted. Meanwhile, the Panama Canal Authority, which has been hit by drought in late 2022 through 2024, will be under pressure to generate more revenue for the country, said Gabriel Mariscal, business manager – ship agency division at port agency services provider CB Fenton. “Strong El Ninos now occur more often – not once in 20 years. Droughts are more frequent. With climate, you don’t know what’s going to happen,” said Mariscal. Betancourt and Mariscal spoke on a panel at the APLA Annual Meeting. Droughts took down Panama Canal transits from 36 per day, to just around 18 during the worst point, he noted. The Panama Canal Authority is likely to consider new rules to raise profitability, including segmenting prices by type of vessel or even by emissions, he said. Meanwhile, ports are strategic convergence points and should work with industries such as chemicals as strategic partners, said Betancourt. “Anticipating things is very complicated. For example, COVID was a Black Swan event. Another issue is the rearranging of supply chains. Shipping agencies are also reorganizing networks and strategic pathways. All this will impact availability and cost,” said Betancourt. The 44th APLA annual meeting takes place 18-21 November in Cartagena, Colombia. Thumbnail image shows a container ship passing through the Panama Canal. Courtesy the Panama Canal Authority