HOUSTON (ICIS)–In a late-Thursday post on social media, President-elect Donald Trump expressed his support for dockworkers in the labor dispute between US Gulf and East Coast ports and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The ILA and the ports, represented in the negotiations by the US Maritime Alliance (USMX), are facing a 15 January deadline to complete a new master agreement. The union has vowed to strike if its demands on limiting automation are not met. In a post on Truth Social after meeting with union president Harold Daggett, Trump said “the amount of money saved [by automation] is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American workers”. Trump said he would rather see the ports spend money on labor instead of “machinery, which is expensive, and which will constantly have to be replaced”. “For the great privilege of accessing our markets, these foreign companies should hire our incredible American workers, instead of laying them off, and sending those profits back to foreign countries,” Trump said. The USMX responded in a post to its website. “We appreciate and value President-elect Trump’s statement on the importance of American ports,” the USMX said. “But this contract goes beyond our ports – it is about supporting American consumers and giving American businesses access to the global marketplace – from farmers, to manufacturers, to small businesses, and innovative start-ups looking for new markets to sell their products.” The USMX contends that to achieve this, there is a need for modern technology that is proven to improve worker safety, boost port efficiency, increase port capacity, and strengthen supply chains. “ILA members’ compensation increases with the more goods they move – the greater capacity the ports have and goods that are moved means more money in their pockets,” the USMX said. “We look forward to working with the President-elect and the incoming administration on how our members are working to support the strength and resilience of the US supply chain and making crucial investments that support ILA members and millions of workers and businesses across the entire domestic supply chain, improving efficiency and creating even more high-paying jobs for ILA members,” the USMX said. A strike would not have an impact on liquid chemical tankers, which transport most chems. But container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. No negotiations are currently underway with slightly less than five weeks left before the deadline.

LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s chemicals and production is expected to have increased by 2% in 2024, while output growth is set to slow next year, sales could stagnate and prices fall, trade group VCI said on Friday. The chemicals sector drove the projected 2024 productivity uptick, with output increasing 8% and helping to offset a 1.5% decline in pharmaceuticals sector productivity, driven by supply chain issues, capacity bottlenecks and high costs. Despite the overall increase in output expected for this year, productivity in the sector remains 16% below levels seen in 2018, with the drop more pronounced for chemicals. Projected sales of €221 billion represent a 2% annual decline in 2024, while sales are expected to have fallen by 2.5%. The declines in sales and pricing are expected to be less substantial next year but there is little hope for a pronounced uptick, with no volume growth expected year on year and pricing to fall 0.5%. Even the muted 0.5% forecast productivity increase is expected to be driven largely by the pharmaceuticals sector, with the chemicals sector alone expected to stagnate. “Our stocktaking is bleak,” said VCI president and Covestro chief Markus Steilemann. “The only ray of light is that the rapid downturn of the last two years has not continued.” VCI, German’s largest trade group for the chemicals sector, projects more closures in the domestic industry in future, as average operating rates remain at lossmaking levels. ”On average, capacity utilisation of production plants was only 75%. In four consecutive years mow, the chemical and pharmaceutical industry has clearly been below the base value for profitable operation,” the VCI said. “In consequence… plants were permanently shut down in recent months. Yet more closures are likely to follow,” the association added. Some companies are currently projecting an upward trend for summer or autumn 2025, but every second company is bracing for a recovery to occur in 2026 or later, the VCI said. Thumbnail photo: Evonik’s production complex in Marl, Germany (Source: Evonik)

LONDON (ICIS)–Economic growth in the UK fell for the second consecutive month in October, mostly driven by a decline in production output, according to official data on Friday. Monthly real GDP fell by 0.1%, following a fall of 0.1% in September. “Production fell by 0.6% in October 2024 and was the largest contributor to the overall fall in GDP in the month. Construction fell by 0.4%, while services showed no growth,” the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. October’s GDP figure is a first estimate and subject to revision. On a quarterly basis, GDP has slowed throughout the year with 0.7% growth in Q1, 0.5% in Q2 and 0.1% in Q3.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has pledged to boost domestic consumption and implement a looser monetary policy amid a looming trade war with the US when Donald Trump takes office in 2025. The pledges were made on 12 December after the two-day annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) of China’s top officials to set the country’s 2025 economic agenda, according to state-owned news agency Xinhua. The proactive policy stance largely echoes the recommendations of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (Politburo) on 9 December. Chinese leaders signalled their aim to reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of banks, and key interest rates “at an appropriate timing to ensure ample liquidity”, policies that will likely weaken the yuan (CNY). A weaker yuan would make Chinese exports more competitive in the global market, at a time when they are facing high tariffs from the US. Ahead of the expected US tariff imposition, Chinese exporters have started to frontload shipping goods to the US in November 2024 following Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections. China is the world’s second-biggest economy. The country’s domestic spending, which has been on a downtrend in 2024, will also be tackled, with Chinese leaders urging efforts to “vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand”. A special campaign dedicated to stimulating consumption should be implemented, and efforts should be made to increase the incomes and alleviate the burdens of low- and middle-income groups, according to the meeting. Fiscal stimulus measures were introduced around end-September but were deemed insufficient for China to achieve its GDP growth target of around 5% in 2024. China aims to maintain “steady economic growth” next year, based on the CEWC report, although growth targets and specific stimulus plans will only be released at the National People’s Congress (NPC) in March 2025. ($1 = CNY7.28)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Olin plans to shut down its diaphragm-grade chloralkali capacity in Freeport, Texas, that provides feedstock to Dow’s propylene oxide (PO) unit, the US-based chloralkali producer said on Thursday. Dow plans to shut down that PO unit at the end of 2025, and those plans prompted Olin to close the diaphragm-grade chloralkali capacity that serves the Dow facility. Olin’s is restricting the shutdown to capacity that relies on asbestos-based technology. US regulators seek to end the use of asbestos in the chloralkali industry. The amount of diaphragm-grade chloralkali capacity that Olin plans to shut down at Freeport amounts to 450,000 electrochemical units (ECUs), according to the company. Olin already has shut down its diaphragm-grade chloralkali capacity in McIntosh, Alabama. It plans to transition its chloralkali capacity in Plaquemine, Louisiana, to non-asbestos-based technology, the company said. Chloralkali units produce caustic soda and chlorine. Thumbnail shows salt, which is used to make caustic soda and chlorine. Image by Alessandra Sarti/imageBROKER/Shutterstock (

BARCELONA (ICIS)–European polyethylene (PE) markets face growing pressure from cheaper imports, highlighting the impact of rising overcapacity driven by China and the US. Plants in Europe operating at technical minimum levels Minimal stocks held amid plentiful supply Demand poor across most end uses, packaging stronger Europe will see more PE imports as global overcapacity grows More polymer plant closures are likely in Europe and other high-cost regions US has more to lose from trade war as it is a major exporter of PE to China Trade flows could change dramatically if tariff walls go up Supply/demand imbalance may take up to nine years to correct In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS markets editors Vicky Ellis and Ben Monroe-Lake plus ICIS market development executives Nigel Davis and John Richardson. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

LONDON (ICIS)–Global crude oil markets are likely to be comfortably supplied next year despite moves by OPEC+ to hold back on easing production cuts and anticipated firmer demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday. Oil demand in 2025 is expected to pick up from 840,000 barrels/day this year to 1.1 million barrels/day next year, bringing total daily consumption to 103.9 million barrels, according to the agency. The petrochemicals sector is expected to be the key driver for that uptick, with transport fuels consumption growth still constrained, and China demand still substantially slower than might have been predicted a few years earlier. Total oil supply growth is expected to increase by 1.9 million barrels/day next year, compared to a 630,000 barrels/day increase in 2024, driven by non-OPEC+ nations, which are expected to comprise 1.5 million barrels/day of the growth. The OPEC+ coalition of nations announced plans last week to hold back on easing voluntary production cuts and slow the rates at which some of the measures are phased out, in the face of continued slow demand growth. OPEC+ member states agreed to extend voluntary cuts amounting to approximately 2.2 million barrels/day through to the end of March next year, and slow the pace of the reintroduction of those volumes so that the process will run through to September 2026. Additional voluntary cuts amounting to 1.65 million barrels/day are to be held in place until the end of December 2026, OPEC added. The moves have substantially reduced the projected supply overhang for 2025, the IEA said, but demand trends still point to an ample buffer of available product. “Persistent overproduction from some OPEC+ members, robust supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries and relatively modest global oil demand growth leaves the market looking comfortably supplied in 2025,” the agency said in its monthly oil report. The US, Brazil, Canada and Guyana are expected to drive production growth next year, while OPEC+ crude output may still stand to increase if Libya, Sudan and South Sudan sustain volumes and additional capacity comes onstream in Kazakhstan, the IEA said. Crude price moves have been relatively subdued in recent months despite geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude futures averaging around $73/barrel, the IEA said, a trend that has continued into December, with midday trading prices of around $73.47 on Thursday. Despite the latest measures announced by OPEC+ and political uncertainty across parts of the globe, demand remains the big question for next year, the agency said. “The abrupt halt to Chinese oil demand growth this year – along with sharply lower increases in other notable emerging and developing economies such as Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa and Argentina – has tilted consensus towards a softer outlook,” the IEA said. Thumbnail photo: An oil platform off the coast of California (Source: Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The UAE will impose a minimum top-up tax (DMTT) on large multinational companies, to align its tax system to global standards. The DMTT, which will take effect for financial years beginning on or after 1 January 2025, is a component of the OECD’s global minimum corporate tax agreement signed by 136 countries, including the UAE, the country’s Ministry of Finance said on 9 December. OECD is a group of industrialized economies with 38 members. (Note: ICIS doesn’t spell out OECD) The new tax will apply to multinational enterprises operating in the UAE with consolidated global revenues of at least €750 million in the past two years, the ministry said. Small petrochemical converters and traders in the UAE are not expected to be affected by the new tax. These tax amendments follow a 9% business tax implemented in 2023, with exemptions for special free zones that operate under different laws. Alongside the DMTT, tax incentives for research and development (R&D) as well as a refundable tax credit for “high-value employment activities” will also be introduced, the ministry said. The R&D tax incentive, beginning 1 January 2026, will offer a potential 30-50% tax credit, while the high-value employment tax incentive will, from 1 January 2025, be “granted as a percentage of eligible salary costs” for eligible employees, including C (chief)-suite executives. The initiatives aim to “enhance the UAE’s global competitiveness” as well as spur innovation and growth, the ministry said. Additional reporting by Nadim Salamoun

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expecting increases in corn utilized for ethanol, larger exports, and lower ending stocks, while soybean supply and use projections are unchanged, according to the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report. In the monthly update, the USDA said corn used to produce ethanol is raised by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion bushels. This lift is based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data for the month of November. The agency said this data implies that corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017. The December WASDE shows corn exports raised by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion bushels, which the USDA said reflects the pace of sales and shipments to date. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are reduced 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers continues to be unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. For soybeans, the supply and use projections are unchanged but the monthly update has lifted soybean oil production to 131.2 million tons, with the USDA saying it is up slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. With higher soybean oil supplies and strong export commitments to date, exports are raised 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion pounds. The December WASDE said the season-average soybean price is being forecasted at $10.20 per bushel, down $0.60 from last month. The first WASDE report of 2025 will be released on 10 January.