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Ethylene04-Jul-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The UK’s public broadcaster
BBC was predicting a landslide victory for the
center-left Labour Party after polling stations
closed at 22.00 local time in London.
According to the BBC exit poll, Labour would
have won around 410 members of parliament (MPs)
in the 650-strong House of Commons, with its
leader Keir Starmer set to be the UK’s next
Prime Minister.
Incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s
Conservative party lost the overall majority
won in 2019, suffering a severe defeat after
losing more than 200 MPs.
If the BBC exit poll is confirmed, the new
House of Commons would be a more plural
parliament, with the centrist Liberal-Democrats
recovering much ground and the far-left Green
Party and the far-right Reform party having
achieved some meaningful representation.
Earlier in 2024, the UK’s chemicals trade group
the CIA
said the upcoming cabinet must do more to
encourage investment in manufacturing value
chains, arguing the country is losing out in
the battle to attract investment against
competitors such as the EU, the US and China.
14 YEARS LATERLabour
last occupied office in 2010 under the
premiership of Gordon Brown, who succeeded Tony
Blair in 2007.
From 2010 on, Conservative leaders David
Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss
and Rishi Sunak have been the residents of
Number 10 Downing Street, the official
residence of the Prime Minister in central
London.
Behind them, a convulse decade-and-a-half in UK
politics when voters decided by a small margin
to withdraw from the EU in 2016, a process
which was not concluded until 2021.
From 2020 on, pandemic-related mismanagement
and the energy crisis have kept the governing
party trailing in opinion polls.
On Thursday’s election, several ministers and
key Conservatives figures would have lost their
seat in parliament, according to the BBC’s exit
poll.
UK House of Commons
Projections 2024 – BBC
Election 2019
Change
Conservative Party
131
365
-234
Labour Party
410
203
+207
Scottish National Party
10
48
-38
Liberal-Democrats
61
11
+50
Others
38
23
+15
Ethylene04-Jul-2024
SAO PAULO (ICISI)–Fears that Hurricane Beryl
could cause widespread disruption to
petrochemicals production in the Altamira hub,
in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, have now
subsided as the hurricane weakens on its path
through the Caribbean.
Beryl was a powerful Category 5 hurricane until
a few hours ago but has quickly weakened to a
Category 3 as it heads towards the Mexican
peninsula of Yucatan.
After that, it is expected to weaken further
and reach Tamaulipas and the US state of Texas
a storm, much less destructive and not a cause
of concern for industrial assets in those
regions.
A spokesperson for Alpek, one of Mexico’s main
chemicals producers, said Beryl is now expected
to only cause manageable rainfall in Altamira;
that rainfall will be very much welcome after
the area suffered a severe drought for months.
“At the moment, the prediction is that it will
only rain in Altamira [when Beryl passes
through] and we do not expect it to have an
impact in our operations,” said a spokesperson
for Alpek.
The petrochemicals hub in Altamira also hosts
companies such Orbia, Dynasol, Cabot, or
Chemours, among many others.
None of the producers mentioned had responded
to a request for comment at the time of
writing.
FROM DROUGHT TO RAINY
SEASONAltamira’s petrochemicals
players had been struggling with water
restrictions for industrial players since May,
when a severe drought in Tamaulipas prompted
the authorities to restrict water supplies.
The situation caused widespread disruption to
chemicals production; in mid-June, it
started improving as
water supplies to households, first, and to
industrial players later were re-established.
The fact that Beryl is expected to cause only
rainfall, without risk of flooding, will also
be welcome.
In an interview with ICIS
in mid-June, an expert from supply chain
consultancy Everstreams said that, while much
awaited, rainfall in the form of storms or
hurricanes could cause as much havoc as the
drought had caused.
“With flooding, there is potential for things
like landslides and run-offs, which can block
roads and highways, So, companies are hoping
that it will be some kind of happy middle
ground, where the rain is not too extreme as to
present added challenges and issues,” said
Everstreams’ Jena Santoro.
Earlier on Thursday, the US’ National Hurricane Center
(NHC) said Beryl should hit northern Mexico
and southern US as a storm, which would spare
industrial assets in those regions – including
several petrochemicals hubs as well as
refineries – from a big hit to operations.
BUSY HURRICANE
SEASONMeteorologists have warned
that this year’s hurricane season could
be the most active ever, with 17-25 named
storms.
Out of those, between eight and 13 are expected
to be hurricanes; between four and seven should
be major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes are Category 3-5 storms with
wind speeds of at least 111 miles/hour.
Beryl’s unprecedented early development into a
Category 5 hurricane has been attributed to
unusually warm sea temperatures, a consequence
of global heating.
Source: US National
Hurricane Center
Ethylene04-Jul-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl, which until
3 July was a powerful Category 5 hurricane,
weakened to Category 3 by Thursday morning as
it headed towards the Mexican peninsula of
Yucatan.
When it hits Yucatan, Beryl is expected to
weaken into a storm, the US National Hurricane
Center (NHC) said on Thursday morning.
Therefore, industrial assets in northern Mexico
and Texas – including several petrochemicals
hubs as well as refineries – could be spared
from a big impact if the forecasted path holds.
In addition, few if any energy companies may
choose to shut in US oil and gas wells in the
Gulf of Mexico.
Major US oil and LNG ports are also expected to
avoid the worst of the storm. According to the
current forecast, the hurricane will make
landfall between the Mexican petrochemical hub
of Altamira, Tamaulipas, and the US hub of
Corpus Christi, Texas.
“A westward to west-northwestward motion is
expected during the next day or two, taking the
core of Beryl away from the Cayman Islands
through this afternoon and over the Yucatan
Peninsula early Friday. Beryl is expected to
emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Friday night and move northwestward across the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday,” said
the NHC.
“Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA
[National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration] Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now
near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Beryl is a category 3 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Weakening is forecast during the next day or
two, though Beryl is forecast to remain a
hurricane until it makes landfall on the
Yucatan Peninsula.”
BUSY HURRICANE SEASON
Meteorologists have warned that this year’s
hurricane season could
be the most active ever, with 17-25 named
storms.
Out of those, eight-13 should be hurricanes and
four-seven should be major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes are Category 3-5 storms with
wind speeds of at least 111 miles/hour.
Beryl’s unprecedented early development into a
Category 5 hurricane has been attributed to
unusually warm sea temperatures, a consequence
of global heating.
Source: US’
National Hurricane Center
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Gas04-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The surge of populist far-right
movements in recent EU and national elections
are raising questions about the bloc’s ability
to retain its role as the world’s climate
policy pioneer.
Many consumers are demanding a focus shift from
climate targets to competitiveness and
security.
While these goals may gather momentum, Europe’s
ambition to phase out fossil fuels to achieve
climate neutrality will remain firmly on the
political agenda.
Nevertheless, the speed of implementing
legislation or reaching stringent targets will
depend on four key factors.
Read the full ICIS white paper
here .
Gas04-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Gas In Focus deputy editor Marta
Del Buono and Global Hydrogen Editor Jake
Stones discuss UK parties’ pledges for the
general elections and what do they mean for the
energy market.
Labour and the Greens and Conservatives favor
renewables while Reform UK is going as far as
scrapping Net Zero policies, fast tracking
North Sea licenses and embracing fracking.
Click
here to watch
Speciality Chemicals04-Jul-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The European Commission is to
move forward with proposed plans to impose
tariffs of nearly 40% in some cases to
China-manufactured battery electric vehicles
(BEVs), citing a level of state subsidy it
terms as “unfair”.
Following an investigation launched in October
2023, the Commission determined that the level
of support provided for electric vehicle
production in China was substantial enough to
pose a “threat of economic injury” to EU
producers.
Discussions between Commission and China
government representatives have “intensified”
in recent weeks, and discussions continue
around reaching a solution compatible with
World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, the EU
executive body added.
Those talks have resulted in a slight reduction
in overall tariffs being levied on some of
China’s largest electric vehicle manufacturers
compared to the rates set out in a 12 June
pre-disclosure.
Manufacturer BYD will face fresh tariffs of
17.4%, Geely 19.9% compared to earlier plans
for 20%, and SAIC 37.6% compared to earlier
plans for 38.1%.
Other China BEV producers that co-operated with
the investigation are subject to weighted
duties of 20.8%, while the duties for
non-co-operating companies will be set at
37.6%.
The duties apply from 5 July for a minimum of
four months, with a decision to be taken on
whether to implement the levies long-term. If a
final decision is taken to impose definitive
duties, the tariffs will remain in place for
five years, the Commission added.
“Based on the investigation, the Commission has
concluded that the BEV value chain in China
benefits from unfair subsidisation, which is
causing a threat of economic injury to EU BEV
producers,” the European Commission said in a
statement.
“The investigation has also examined the likely
consequences and impact of these measures on
importers, users and consumers of BEVs in the
EU.”
The French government has backed the move to
investigate the impact of China subsidies on
European BEV markets, while German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz has warned against the move.
Germany is one of Europe’s key auto
manufacturers, with large global players in the
sector such as BMW and Audi deriving a
substantial portion of their international
business from China.
The German Association of the Automotive
Industry (VDA) on Wednesday issued fresh public
criticism for the
plans, claiming that the tariffs will slow the
growth of the electromobility sector and slow
carbon reduction target progress.
“The anti-subsidy tariffs would make electric
vehicles more expensive on the European market
or prevent them from being offered on the
market at all,” the trade group said.
Thumbnail photo: A dealership operated in
Moscow, Russia, by Geely, one of the producers
facing intensified sanctions. Source: Maxim
Shipenkov/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
04-Jul-2024
One US judge states that LNG project pause should be pushed
aside
Ruling may have limited impact but has gained significant
attention
Focus shifting to later in the year as election countdown
continues
HOUSTON (ICIS)–A US federal judge attempted to disrupt the
pause on federal US LNG export licenses this week, but his
decision may not accelerate project permitting or investment
decisions.
The Department of Energy should begin approving licenses for
LNG plants to export to countries outside the US Free Trade
Agreement, Judge James Cain of the Western District of
Louisiana decided on 1 July.
Cain’s decision was the result of a lawsuit filed in March by
16 Republican-controlled US states, including Texas and
Louisiana, whose attorneys general argued that the LNG
permitting pause would impact their economies.
President Joe Biden’s administration placed what it calls a
pause on approving the key LNG permits, which are issued by
the Department of Energy, in January, saying the department
required time to update its analysis of whether additional
LNG exports fall within the public interest.
The decision borrowed language from Biden’s opponents, who
call the situation an export ban.
In a memorandum, Cain agreed with the plaintiffs’ argument
that the DOE did not provide an adequate reason to halt new
approvals while updating the analysis.
The 8.4 mtpa Commonwealth LNG in Louisiana; Venture Global’s
CP2 LNG, also in Louisiana; and the second phase of Sempra
Infrastructure’s Port Arthur LNG in Texas, adding 13.5mtpa in
capacity, are considered the most advanced export projects
requiring DOE approval.
While some of these companies applauded the apparent
regulatory victory, the direct impact of Cain’s decision is
uncertain, as the DOE falls directly under Biden’s purview.
In the days following the 1 July decision – which was given
the week of a US federal holiday – the DOE did not specify
whether or how it would re-start non-FTA license approvals.
If the DOE holds true to the remarks of Secretary Jennifer
Granholm in March, the LNG permitting pause could already be
near the halfway point: Granholm said then that she expects
the review process to wrap up entirely by March 2025.
As Biden considers the votes of vocal environmentalists in
the November election, even without an explicit pause, it was
unlikely that regulators would move quickly on pending
projects in 2024, executives said in January.
If Republican opponent Donald Trump wins the election,
non-FTA license approvals would likely re-start soon after
his January inauguration.
During the DOE pause, the Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission (FERC) has continued to approve another key
federal LNG permit.
The long-pending application by Venture Global’s CP2 LNG was
approved by FERC in late June.
No US LNG export projects have announced final investment
decisions so far in 2024, with Canada’s Cedar LNG being the
only project to secure adequate commercial support and
financing to move ahead.
Terephthalic Acid04-Jul-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A consortium consisting of
four Asian petrochemical producers have agreed
to establish a sustainable polyester fiber
supply chain.
Japan’s Mitsubishi Corp, South Korea’s SK geo
centric, Thailand’s Indorama Ventures Ltd
(IVL), and India Glycols along with three other
companies are part of the consortium, the
companies said in a joint statement on
Thursday.
Japanese sports apparel firm Goldwin is the
project owner of the initiative, while Finnish
refiner Neste is also part of the consortium
alongside Japan-based engineering firm Chiyoda
Corp.
Financial details of the project were not
disclosed.
The project aims to utilize renewable and
bio-based materials as well as materials
produced via carbon capture and utilization
(CCU) to manufacture polyester fibers for THE
NORTH FACE brand in Japan.
Outdoor apparel and equipment brand THE NORTH
FACE is operated by Goldwin in Japan.
“After that, the launch of further products and
brands of Goldwin will be considered,” Chiyoda
said in the statement.
The polyester fiber produced from the project
is planned to be used by Goldwin for a part of
THE NORTH FACE products, including sports
uniforms in July this year.
Chiyoda will supply CCU-based paraxylene (PX)
to the supply chain, while Thai polyester
producer IVL will contribute renewable
CCU-based purified terephthalic acid (PTA).
In March 2022, Chiyoda started producing carbon
dioxide (CO2)-based PX at its pilot plant at
the company’s Koyasu Research Park in Kanagawa
prefecture as part of a project linked with
Japan’s New Energy and Industrial Technology
Development Organization (NED).
SK geo centric and Neste will be supplying
renewable PX and renewable naphtha,
respectively.
India Glycols, which produces monoethylene
glycol (MEG), will supply bio-ethylene glycol
made mainly from sugarcane.
Toyobo MC Corporation (TMC) – a joint venture
between Toyobo Co and Mitsubishi Corp – will be
supplying renewable bio-CCU polyethylene
terephthalate (PET).
Details on supply volumes from each of the
consortium partners were not disclosed.
Thumbnail photo: A generic polyester
clothing label
(Sandvik/imageBROKER/Shutterstock)
Ethylene03-Jul-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl is on track to
make landfall on Monday near the border of
Mexico and the US on the Gulf Coast, although
the path could change in the next few days.
If Beryl holds to its forecasted path, it would
spare the major refining and petrochemical hubs
in the US and Mexico. In addition, few if any
energy companies may choose to shut in US oil
and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico.
Major US oil and LNG ports would escape the
worst of the storm.
The following map shows the forecasts path of
Hurricane Beryl as of midday on Wednesday.
The forecasted path puts Hurricane Beryl
between the Mexican petrochemical hub of
Altamira, Tamaulipas state and the US hub of
Corpus Christi, Texas state.
IF BERYL CHANGES COURSE, IT COULD
THREATEN CORPUS CHRISTIIn
addition to being a refining and petrochemical
hub, Corpus Christi is a major oil-exporting
port and hosts a terminal that exports
liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Were a storm to disrupt US LNG exports, it
would have a knock-on effect on petrochemical
prices by shutting down one of the eight LNG
export terminals in the country. If the
disruption lasted long enough, prices for
natural gas would fall.
Lower gas prices would drag down those for
ethane, the main feedstock that US crackers use
to produce ethylene. Petrochemical producers
could benefit from lower feedstock costs.
UPDATE ON HURRICANE
BERYLHurricane Beryl is the
first Category 5 hurricane to form so early in
the season. Category 5 hurricanes have the
strongest winds under the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale, with speeds exceeding 157
miles/hour (253 km/hour).
Beryl is near Jamaica and it should weaken as
it approaches the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico,
where it should make landfall on Friday. It
will cross the peninsula, enter the Bay of
Campeche and remain north of the Mexican state
of Veracruz, which is home to the petrochemical
hub of Coatzacoalcos and the Ethylene XXI
integrated polyethylene (PE) complex.
It will swing north before making another
landfall near Brownsville, Texas state and
Matamoros, Tamaulipas state.
BUSY HURRICANE
SEASONMeteorologists have warned
that this year’s hurricane season
could be the most active ever, with 17-25
named storms. Out of those, 8-13 should be
hurricanes and 4-7 should be major hurricanes.
Major hurricanes are Category 3-5 storms with
wind speeds of at least 111 miles/hour.
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