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Crude Oil13-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices surged by more
than $1/barrel on Monday on supply disruption
concerns following latest round of US sanctions
against Russia’s energy sector.
Russian supply to top purchasers India,
China may be hit
Oil gains in recent weeks partly driven by
strong winter demand
US may tighten sanctions on Iran oil
exports under Trump
The new sanctions, imposed on 10 January, mark
the US’ most sweeping measures yet, targeting
companies and vessels engaged in Russia’s oil
production and exports.
“The United States is taking sweeping action
against Russia’s key source of revenue for
funding its brutal and illegal war against
Ukraine,” US treasury secretary Janet Yellen
had said on 10 January.
“With today’s actions, we are ratcheting up the
sanctions risk associated with Russia’s oil
trade, including shipping and financial
facilitation in support of Russia’s oil
exports.”
The sanctions were imposed on 183 vessels, of
which 143 are tankers, said Matt Wright, lead
freight analyst at data and analytics firm
France-based Kpler said in a note.
The tankers included are a combination of
Russian-owned and “shadow fleet” vessels. The
package of sanctions is the largest to target
the Russian shipping market since the invasion
in 2022, Wright said.
“Shadow fleet” refers to ships indirectly owned
or controlled by Russia through shell companies
or intermediaries to evade detection and
sanctions.
The latest sanctions targeted 117 crude oil
tankers, with 102 of them transported Russian
crude to China and/or India at least once in
2024, and 11 exclusively moving arctic crude
from oil fields to export terminals within
Russia, according to Wright.
“When it comes to buyers, China and India, in
general, tend to steer clear of dealing
directly with tankers and entities blacklisted
by the US Treasury,” he said.
China’s state-owned Shandong Port Group on 7
January issued a ban on vessels listed under
the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)
from docking at its facilities – a
precautionary step to avoid potential
liabilities as President-elect Donald Trump
prepares to return to the White House in just
two weeks, Wright said.
In 2024, nearly half of China’s seaborne
imports of Russian crude oil were sourced
through the eastern province of Shandong,
according to Wright.
Shandong province is home to a high
concentration of independent small or “teapot”
refineries, which play a significant role in
oil imports of the world’s second-biggest
economy.
“The new sanctions disrupting Russian oil
exports are expected to drive up Russian crude
price differentials in China and India in the
short term, potentially reaching parity with
non-sanctioned grades of similar quality,” he
added.
India, which is a giant emerging market in
Asia, has significantly increased imports of
Russian oil since the Ukraine invasion, taking
advantage of discounted prices and becoming one
of the top buyers of Russian crude.
The newly sanctioned tankers handled over 530
million barrels of Russian crude exports last
year, accounting for about 42% of Russia’s
total seaborne crude exports, according to
Kpler data.
Over half of this volume or around 300 million
barrels was shipped to China, making up roughly
61% of China’s seaborne imports of Russian oil.
The bulk of the remaining volume went to India,
accounting for nearly a third of the south
Asian nation’s total intake of Russian oil, it
said.
The US Department of State said that is also
taking steps to reduce Russia’s energy revenues
by blocking two active liquefied natural gas
(LNG) projects, a large Russian oil project,
and third-country entities supporting Russia’s
energy exports.
Russia’s foreign ministry on 11 January
denounced the US sanctions against its energy
sector, saying that it would respond to the
country’s “hostile” actions.
Crude prices have surged in recent weeks,
driven by winter demand, falling US stockpiles,
and speculation that the incoming Donald Trump
administration in the US will tighten sanctions
on Iranian oil exports.
Meanwhile, Texas refineries are bracing for an
onslaught of cold, snow and freezing rain as
the first major winter storm sweeps the
southern region of the US, with January
projected to be the coldest in 11 years.
Focus article by Nurluqman
Suratman
(Updates with latest prices in interactive,
adds details throughout)
Thumbnail image: A foreign oil tanker at
Qingdao port in Shandong province, China, on 29
November
2024.(Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
Polyethylene13-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click
here to see the latest blog post on Asian
Chemical Connections by John Richardson.
Last year, ICIS estimated that China’s
polypropylene (PP) capacity exceeding its
demand was 6.9m tonnes.
This is expected to reach 11.6m tonnes in 2025,
which would be an increase of 68%. As recently
as 2009, China’s PP capacity was 4.4m tonnes
short of local demand.
It was only in 2021 – the year of
the Evergrande Turning Point and following
China’s 2014 decision to push much harder
towards chemicals and polymers self-sufficiency
– that China moved into a slight surplus of
0.3m tonnes.
The surplus jumped to 2.2m tonnes in 2022 as
China’s long-term economic downturn began to
take hold.
Now let us look at China’s percentage shares of
total global PP capacity exceeding demand from
1992 onwards, when the Chemicals Supercycle
began.
In 2009, China’s percentage share of total
global PP capacity exceeding demand was minus
53%
This year, China’s percentage share is expected
to reach no less than 46%, ten percentage
points higher than 2024, eclipsing all other
regions which are expected to be in the single
digits.
Just how difficult this year will turn out to
be will of course depend on the strength of
China’s demand growth
A Chinese economist suggests that last year’s
real GDP growth in China was
less than 2.5% rather than the official
government estimate of 5%.
China’s population
may have been 130m lower in 2020 than
the official government estimate, according to
the ICIS economist Kevin Swift.
The lower the economic growth then of course
the lower the demand growth for PP and other
chemicals and polymers and the greater the
overhang of China’s PP capacity versus local
demand, further reducing China’s need for PP
imports.
In January-November 2024, China’s exports of PP
reached 2.2m tonnes versus 1.3m tonnes in 2024
and only 425,000 tonnes as recently as 2020.
There is obviously the potential for exports to
be even higher in 2025 in an environment of
weak local demand growth and the capacity
additions.
How much higher will depend on the levels of
protectionism. PP producers elsewhere may well,
I believe, seek more antidumping, safeguard and
tariff protection.
We must also consider how the pace of China’s
PP capacity and production growth will be
affected by its ability to indirectly export PP
as packaging for or components of finished
goods.
Increased protectionism
could again play a role here, in reaction
to the belief that China as
aggressively raised its exports of low, medium
and high-value manufactured goods since 2021 in
order to compensate for the collapse of the
real-estate bubble.
Take a deep breath, stand back from the market
noise, think what the ICIS data is telling you
and build scenarios to get through 2025.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Crude Oil13-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices surged by more
than $1/barrel on Monday on supply disruption
concerns following latest round of US sanctions
against Russia’s energy sector.
Product
Latest
Previous
Change
Brent March
81.26
79.76
1.50
WTI February
78.14
76.57
1.57
The new sanctions,
imposed on 10 January, mark the US’ most
sweeping measures yet, targeting major Russian
oil exporters, insurance firms, and more than
150 tankers.
“The United States is taking sweeping action
against Russia’s key source of revenue for
funding its brutal and illegal war against
Ukraine,” US treasury secretary Janet Yellen
had said on 10 January.
“With today’s actions, we are ratcheting up the
sanctions risk associated with Russia’s oil
trade, including shipping and financial
facilitation in support of Russia’s oil
exports.”
The US Department of State said that is also
taking steps to reduce Russia’s energy revenues
by blocking two active liquefied natural gas
(LNG) projects, a large Russian oil project,
and third-country entities supporting Russia’s
energy exports.
Russia’s foreign ministry on 11 January
denounced the US sanctions against its energy
sector, saying that it would respond to the
country’s “hostile” actions.
Crude prices have surged in recent weeks,
driven by winter demand, falling US stockpiles,
and speculation that the incoming Donald Trump
administration in the US will tighten sanctions
on Iranian oil exports.
Meanwhile, Texas refineries are bracing for an
onslaught of cold, snow and freezing rain as
the first major winter storm sweeps the
southern region of the US, with January this
year projected to be the coldest in 11 years.
Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)
See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.
Gas13-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories
from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for
the week ended 10 January.
China to accelerate hydrogen use in
transportation, industrial sectors after
2035
By Patricia Tao 06-Jan-25 14:32 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China is aggressively promoting
hydrogen in transportation and industrial
sectors as part of its transition from fossil
fuels.
Vietnam Q4 GDP expands 7.55%, full-year ’24
growth at 7.09%
By Jonathan Yee 06-Jan-25 16:39 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Vietnam’s economy expanded by 7.55%
year on year in the fourth quarter on
recovering global demand even amid heavy
losses from Typhoon Yagi, official
preliminary data showed.
Malaysia’s ADDs on China’s PET exports weigh
on spot discussions
By Judith Wang 08-Jan-25 15:09 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Malaysia’s announcement of
provisional antidumping duties (ADDs) on
polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from
China and Indonesia has cast a shadow on spot
discussions.
PODCAST: Asia ethylene to be impacted by US
turnarounds, supply from northeast
Asia
By Damini Dabholkar 08-Jan-25 16:17 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia ethylene editor Josh Quah and
analyst Aliena Huang talk about the Asia
outlook for ethylene arbitrage cargoes for
2025 with markets editor Damini Dabholkar.
INSIGHT: China govt summit emphasises
stabilising growth, sets tone for 2025
petchems demand
By Joey Zhou 08-Jan-25 17:25 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The Central Economic Work Conference
(CEWC) held in Beijing from December 11th to
12th provided a general direction for China’s
economic development in 2025.
China’s Shandong Port bars entry of
US-sanctioned vessels
By Fanny Zhang 08-Jan-25 21:04 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s Shandong Port Group has
stopped US-sanctioned vessels from calling
into ports under its control, according to a
company notice.
India acetic acid supply tightens; prices on
rebound
By Hwee Hwee Tan 09-Jan-25 14:06 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–India’s spot market for acetic acid
imports staged a surprise recovery from late
December, buoyed by fears of curtailed
supplies from China into January.
China’s PPI deflation persists; more economic
stimulus expected in 2025
By Fanny Zhang 09-Jan-25 16:10 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China is expected to announce more
stimulus policies in 2025 to boost lackluster
growth and reverse a prolonged deflation in
wholesale prices, according to analysts.
INSIGHT: China’s polyolefin industry seeks
higher-end products amid structural
overcapacity
By Zhibo Xiao 09-Jan-25 19:11 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–China’s rapid expansion in PP and PE
production has led to structural overcapacity
in PP and a shrinking supply-demand gap for
PE. Meanwhile, the shifting consumption
landscape has driven a surge in demand for
high-end polyolefin materials, creating a
substantial market gap.
Weak demand, stiff competition prompt Asia
rPET producers to cut prices
By Arianne Perez 10-Jan-25 10:51 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Majority of recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (rPET) flakes and pellets
producers cut spot cargo prices as January
opens in attempts to stoke buying interest
from downstream buyers.
Crude Oil13-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Asia
Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from
23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
naphtha Q1 sentiment upbeat on better
demand
Asia’s naphtha market has rebounded from
oversupply and weak demand, with sentiment
expected to be lifted higher by gasoline
buying interest, refinery maintenance and new
cracker startups.
OUTLOOK ’25: New C2
capacity in SE Asia may transform
landscape
While southeast Asian ethylene markets will
see – by far – a smaller capacity expansion
in 2025 compared to northeast Asia, expansion
in the former is already shaping up to be
significantly more impactful.
INSIGHT: NE Asia C2
oversupply makes for soft landing in
2025
Northeast Asia ethylene markets are facing a
wave of new China-led capacities in 2025 that
will tip the fundamental scales further into
oversupply for the continent.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia,
India brace for potentially more
ethanolamines from China
Participants in southeast Asia and India are
bracing for a potential deluge of Chinese
cargoes flowing into their markets in the
first quarter of 2025.
OUTLOOK ‘25: SE Asia PE
to see sluggish start to 2025 as slow demand
persists
The southeast Asian polyethylene (PE) market
is expected to face a sluggish start to the
new year, with strong pricing competition and
slow demand likely to guide sentiment.
OUTLOOK ’25: China PE
faces surge in domestic capacity, trade
challenges
Despite expectations for a mild recovery in
China’s polyethylene (PE) demand in 2025,
supported by the country’s stimulus policies,
a supply-demand imbalance is likely to exert
pressure on both domestic and foreign PE
markets.
OUTLOOK ‘25: South Asia
PE, PP face supply pressure
India’s polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene
(PP) markets are expected to face sustained
pressure amid healthy domestic supply.
However, strong domestic demand growth is
likely to aid market rebalancing to some
extent.
OUTLOOK ’25: Tourism,
plant turnarounds, geopolitics to shape
Mideast PP/PE markets
Weak market demand and an overall bearish
sentiment were prevalent in both the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC) and East
Mediterranean (East Med) polymer markets in
Q4 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Demand for
premium rPE, rPP cargoes from Asia to gain
support from brands
Sustainability targets of major brand owners
will continue to lend support to the uptake
of high-quality recycled polyolefins with
certifications, in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia C3
poised for sustained capacity expansions,
increased spot talks
Oversupply has been a running theme for the
Asian propylene (C3) market for the past few
years, as many C3 plants started up in the
post-pandemic period while consumer demand
struggled to keep up as economic recovery
slowed.
OUTLOOK ’25: China
propylene market may enter a new cycle on
fewer new PDH units expected
China’s propylene market will continue to see
new units come onstream in 2025, and the
market may enter a new phase of structural
transformation with the new capacities mainly
coming from steam crackers and propane
dehydrogenation (PDH) units.
OUTLOOK ’25: Supply
overhang maintains pressure on SE Asia PP
market
Southeast Asia’s polypropylene (PP) market
will continue to see pressure from
oversupply, which will lengthen further as
new projects in China commence commercial
operation.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s PP
supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports
to continue
China’s polypropylene (PP) market is expected
to become increasingly imbalanced in 2025,
driven by continued export growth and a
decline in imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: China BD
supply and demand to increase, exports to
balance market
In 2025, butadiene (BD) capacity in China
will expand and supply tightness in the local
market is expected to ease compared with
2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ACN
supply growth to outpace demand, margins
under pressure
The acrylonitrile (ACN) market is likely to
face another challenging year for regional
producers with oversupply and competition
from China to keep the wider Asia market
under pressure.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia BDO
remains a buyer’s market amid
oversupply
The Asia 1,4-butanediol (BDO) market is
expected to come under even more pressure,
with capacities in China still increasing and
demand not keeping up with the expansions.
OUTLOOK ’25: China BDO
to remain mired in supply glut
China’s supply surplus in 1,4-butanediol
(BDO) is expected to extend into 2025 amid a
heavy schedule of new capacities – a
situation that is likely to see domestic
suppliers press for new solutions.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PBT
demand weakness continues, capacities stay
idled
In 2024, the Asian polybutylene terephthalate
(PBT) market saw regional producers facing
more competition from China-origin materials
due to overcapacity there.
OUTLOOK ’25: Uneven
automotive sector growth weighs on Asia
synthetic rubber demand
Import demand for various synthetic rubber
grades in Asia – from
styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR), polybutadiene
rubber (PBR) to
acrylonitrile-butadiene-rubber (NBR) – will
lean on how recovery and growth of major
downstream industries behave.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PX
looks to downstream demand growth, gasoline
markets
The paraxylene (PX) markets in Asia may fare
better in 2025 than in 2024 due to capacity
expansions in the downstream purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) sector amid
controlled run rates at PX facilities.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MX to
face persistent headwinds from lackluster
derivatives demand
The Asia mixed xylenes (MX) market is likely
to see an extension of its existing demand
struggles and bearish market sentiment going
into 2025, with limited significant
fundamental upturn expected in the long run.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia SM
market focuses on China exports,
contract-spot trade-offs
For Asia’s styrene monomer (SM) market
players, the year 2024 was marked by squeezed
margins, slow consumption recovery and a
gradually transforming trade landscape.
OUTLOOK ’25: China
styrene expansion slows, all eyes on trade
flows
The pace of styrene capacity expansion in
China is expected to slow in 2025, with only
four units being put into operation including
Shandong Chambroad Petrochemicals, Shandong
Yulong PC, PetroChina Jilin and PetroChina
Guangxi.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
PS/EPS to see further competition and track
SM changes
Despite slow global end-consumption recovery
for polystyrene (PS) and expandable
polystyrene (EPS), Asian suppliers’ margins
remained at workable levels, with production
adjustment and flexible inventory management
in second-half 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia benzene to begin new year
on upbeat note
The benzene markets in Asia are expected to
rebound in H1 2025 from the traditional
slowdown seen in Q4 2024, on the back demand
drivers from both the East and the West.
OUTLOOK ’25: China benzene to remain tightly
balanced, supply growth to lag
demand
China’s benzene market is expected to remain
tightly balanced into 2025 on expectations of
a rise in both supply and demand, although
supply tightness may ease next year compared
with 2024.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia toluene market gears up for
volatility, demand likely modest
Asia toluene markets are bracing for a
challenging trading environment, amid
anticipated moderate demand in the first half
of 2025 and increased supply.
OUTLOOK ’25: China toluene seeks export
opportunities amid subsiding gasoline
demand
The average price of China toluene during
January-November 2024 fell by around 4%
compared to the full-year average in 2023,
according to ICIS data.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PET capacity additions to
slow; trade flow shift continues
Asia’s polyethylene terephthalate (PET) new
capacity expansions are expected to slow down
in 2025, while the global trade flow may
shift further with more trade restrictions
against Chinese exports.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PTA supply growth to
outstrip demand, margins under
pressure
The purified terephthalic acid (PTA) market
is expected to face a challenging year in
2025, with further expansion in supply, while
demand is likely unable to catch up with the
supply growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: China PTA supply glut to
increase despite slowing capacity
expansion
The capacity growth of China’s purified
terephthalic acid (PTA) is expected to slow
to about 8.3 million tonnes/year in 2025,
down from 11.25 million tonnes/year in 2023.
The 2024 capacity addition of 7.2 million
tonnes/year was also lower than the 2023
level.
OUTLOOK ‘25: China MEG market to see limited
new capacities, slowing demand
growth
Planned new China monoethylene glycol (MEG)
capacity for 2025 is still relatively
limited, and fundamentals may not exert
significant pressure, providing some support
to the MEG market.
OUTLOOK ’25: China DEG supply remains high,
cautious outlook for demand
Despite a lack of new capacity, domestic
diethylene glycol (DEG) output still rose
sharply in 2024 driven by improved co-product
monoethylene glycol (MEG) margins.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s capro self-sufficiency
reshapes Asia trade
The caprolactam (capro) market in the
Asia-Pacific region in 2024 saw China achieve
self-sufficiency as it shifted its trade
status from a net importer to a net exporter.
China looks to solidify its position as a key
exporter in the region with an additional
600,000 tonnes/year of capro capacity to come
online in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: China strengthens position in
Asia-Pacific nylon trade
The Asia-Pacific nylon market in 2024 saw
demand grow largely in the Chinese domestic
market due to increased demand for industrial
plastics.
OUTLOOK ’25: China caps ACN run rates, looks
to increase exports
The supply of acrylonitrile (ACN) in China’s
domestic market is expected to increase
significantly in 2025, especially because
Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical
(ZRCC) and Sinochem Quanzhou are due to start
up new units in the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia EDC suppliers to focus on
contractual commitments amid suppressed
demand
Asia’s ethylene dichloride (EDC) spot market
is expected to remain structurally thin into
2025 due to lackluster downstream
performance.
OUTLOOK ’25: Mideast PVC trade shifts
expected amid India ADDs, China supply
growth
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) supply is expected
to improve in the coming year with new
capacities to the tune of 2 million tonnes
slated to come online in China.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia caustic soda demand growth
likely to be uneven
Asia’s caustic soda spot market holds an
optimistic demand outlook for certain
markets, but players acknowledge that
difficulties remain as market players head
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Producers tweak Asia VAM plants
as China supply-demand rebalances
Tightening supply is expected to support
vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) spot prices in
Asia amid differing downstream demand
outlooks for China and other major Asia
markets.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MMA trade flows shift
significantly
The winds of change are blowing hard for the
methyl methacrylate (MMA) industry in Asia,
with market players having witnessed
significant shifts in trade flows and price
influences in 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: China MMA to face export
opportunities amid capacity changes
worldwide
Global supply and demand growth for methyl
methacrylate (MMA) is expected to be roughly
balanced in 2025, with capacity growth mainly
concentrated in China and the US.
OUTLOOK ’25: New capacity to weigh on Asia
phenol/acetone market
Asia’s phenol/acetone to feedstock spread may
remain in the negative territory for the
fourth consecutive year amid new capacities
and a gloomy demand outlook even as the
industry undergoes capacity consolidation.
OUTLOOK ’25: China phenol to face persistent
supply-demand challenges
China’s phenol capacity will continue to
expand in 2025, but this will meet limited
demand increases due to downstream margin
pressure.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s acetone market to see
increases in both supply and demand
In 2025, both supply and demand for acetone
in China are expected to increase, but there
are market concerns that issues in some
downstream sectors may limit the actual
demand growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: China to dominate growth of Asia
EVA supply, demand
2024 marked the year that China shifted to
lower imports of ethylene vinyl acetate
(EVA), and 2025 is set to see capacity
additions in China increasingly meet demand
growth – mainly from the downstream
photovoltaics (PV) sector.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia PO imports demand likely to
weaken further
Asia’s propylene oxide (PO) import markets
are likely to face further weakening in
demand in 2025, with supply in China set to
lengthen.
OUTLOOK’25: China PO market faces challenge
of oversupply
China’s propylene oxide (PO) capacity is
expected to continue to grow in 2025 even as
downstream capacity expands. Players largely
hold the view oversupply will continue.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia polyols demand outlook
mixed but pessimism dominant
Demand in the Asian region for slabstock
polyether polyols is expected to be flat for
the first half of 2025, with the outlook for
H2 hazy but largely pessimistic.
OUTLOOK ’25: Middle East polyols face supply
pressures
The Middle East polyols markets are expected
to remain under pressure in 2025 due to
persistent excess supply, relatively weak
demand, and ongoing supply chain disruptions.
These challenges are compounded by the
addition of new polyols and propylene oxide
(PO) capacities, macroeconomic uncertainties,
and the volatility of upstream feedstock
markets.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia isocyanates demand likely
hampered, supply lengthy
Asian import markets of methylene diphenyl
diisocyanate (MDI) and toluene diioscyanate
(TDI) are set to face lengthy supply in 2025,
and the downstream sectors are likely to
continue facing headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: Middle East isocyanates face
demand, freight challenges
In 2024, the isocyanates market in the Middle
East experienced significant disruptions in
shipping and supply chains due to a prolonged
regional conflict. Despite these challenges,
imports of polymeric methylene diphenyl
diisocyanate (PMDI) increased year on year,
while export volumes remained steady. Toluene
diisocyanate (TDI) trade volumes were largely
stable across both imports and exports.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asian PC market downturn to
persist
Asia’s polycarbonate (PC) market is expected
to remain downbeat in the next quarter as
import demand is anticipated to be subdued
but supplies will stay persistently high.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s bisphenol A market faces
challenges in 2025
Asia’s bisphenol A (BPA) market will remain
hampered by ample supplies and weak demand
through the first quarter of 2025 as trade
wars impact exports of countries involved in
the conflict and further erode consumer
confidence.
OUTLOOK ’25: China BPA capacity to expand
further, export outlets sought
New Chinese bisphenol A (BPA) capacities are
expected to come into operation in 2025,
which may reduce the country’s reliance on
imports and help China turn into a major
exporter to broader Asia.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s MA demand anticipated to
pick up in Q1 on stimulus measures
Asia’s maleic anhydride (MA) demand is
expected to strengthen in early 2025 on
restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year
holidays. China’s planned economic stimulus
measures to boost its domestic economy is
likely to lend positive support to MA demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: SE Asia to drive phthalic
anhydride demand in early 2025
Sellers of lower priced Chinese origin
phthalic anhydride (PA) material are expected
to focus on southeast Asia post Lunar New
Year, where demand is expected to remain firm
in the first quarter of 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: China plasticizers demand to
remain subdued amid ample domestic
supplyChina’s import market for
plasticizers will likely continue to see thin
trade in 2025, as demand for imports has
steadily dwindled amid ample domestic
supplies.
OUTLOOK ’25: China 2-EH to face supply-demand
headwinds in Q1
China’s 2-ethyl hexanol (2-EH) market will
face a challenging year in 2025, particularly
in the first quarter, as a result of more
ample supply and uncertainty in downstream
demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia to become net MIBK exporter
in new year
An excess methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK)
capacity emerging in Asia has dampened spot
prices in the region and widened the
arbitrage for trade across the Atlantic
heading into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia acetic acid supply glut to
balloon on capacity expansion
Asia acetic acid supply is likely to outstrip
demand on the back of China’s significant
capacity growth into 2025, prompting
producers to review regional plant run rates
and supply contracts.
OUTLOOK ‘25: China acetic acid to rely on
cost support amid supply growth
While China’s acetic acid market experienced
fluctuations in 2024 , the mismatch in the
growth of upstream and downstream capacities
allowed acetic acid suppliers to maintain
relatively healthy margins for most of the
time.
OUTLOOK ’25: China acrylic acid supply to
rise, exports and run rates
monitored
China’s acrylic acid market is expected to
see increasing supply in 2025 due to
start-ups of new plants, and participants may
turn their attention to the export market in
the face of weak growth potential in domestic
demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: China NBA supply to remain
limited, demand to pick up in Q1
China’s domestic n-butanol (NBA) supply may
remain tight in the first quarter of 2025,
due to no unit start-up plans, multiple
scheduled maintenance outages and low import
volumes, while the launch of new downstream
capacities may boost demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: Lack of demand outlets may limit
growth for Asia adipic acid
Asia’s adipic acid markets have been through
a tough 2024 on both demand and supply
fronts.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia LAB remains stagnant,
continues to underperform mid-cut fatty
alcohols
The Asia linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market
remained mostly flat in the fourth quarter of
2024, and the malaise in the market looks set
to continue into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ABS, SAN to start year on
upbeat note
The acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) and
styrene acrylonitrile (SAN) markets in Asia
are expected to start the new year on an
upbeat note after festivity-driven trades,
amid caution about possible tariffs on
exports to the US.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia melamine demand could gain
momentum, H2 ’25 capacity additions
monitored
Asia’s melamine market could see some support
in early 2025 from improving demand in
China’s export market as buyers replenish
inventories ahead of the Lunar New Year at
end-January.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia IPA margin pressure to
persist amid new capacity
Isopropanol (IPA) makers in Asia are bracing
for a challenging start to 2025 as production
margins remain poor and upcoming new capacity
in China could disrupt market balance.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia MEK tight supply may ease;
cost pressure to persist
Asia’s methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) markets
gleaned support from tightened China supply
in H2 December.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
glycol ethers face demand headwinds, BG may
tighten in Q2
The butyl glycol (BG) markets in Asia could
see ample supply against a backdrop of tepid
demand in Q1 2025, but supply could tighten
in Q2.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia ECH,
LER oversupply to endure, ADD investigations
to shape trade flows
Asia’s epichlorohydrin (ECH) and liquid epoxy
resins (LER) markets will continue to grapple
with regional oversupply, while antidumping
duty (ADD) investigations of Asian LER makers
in the US and Europe will shape trade flows.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia fatty
acids demand to remain tepid in Q1 on
upstream oil palm volatility
Asia’s fatty acids demand for the first
quarter of 2025 is expected to be tepid, due
to volatility in the upstream oil palm
complex and weak consumer confidence.
OUTLOOK ’25: Volatile
feedstock to weigh on Asia fatty alcohol
mid-cuts in Q1
Buyers and sellers of fatty alcohols mid-cuts
in Asia are expected to tussle over the
market’s trajectory in the first quarter of
2025 amid volatile feedstock palm kernel oil
(PKO) prices.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
glycerine Q1 supply may rise on Indonesia
mandate
Asia’s glycerine supply may increase in the
first quarter of 2025 as Indonesia is poised
to increase its biodiesel mandate to B40 in
January 2025, up from B35 in 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia soap
noodles demand tepid in Q1 on upstream
volatility
Asia’s soap noodles demand is likely to
remain tepid in the first quarter of 2025
amid expected continued volatility in
upstream crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel
oil (PKO) markets.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia FAE
demand to remain tepid in Q1 amid squeezed
margins
Asia’s demand for fatty alcohol ethoxylates
(FAE) is likely to remain stable in the first
quarter of 2025, but spot offers may be
revised up due to squeezed margins.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia Group
II/III base oils supply to rise, demand to
improve from March
An increase in the supply of Asia Group II
base oils is expected to gain traction from
around mid-2025, with supply of heavy grade
500/600N likely to remain relatively tighter
than that of light grade 150N.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia Group
I base oils to navigate supply
tightness
Entering into 2025, structural supply
tightness of Group I base oils will remain
the key market driver. Where
substitution is more likely, such as for
SN150 and SN500, price dynamics will also
depend on supply length for Group II 150N and
500N. On the other hand, brightstock
availability will be a challenge amid supply
disruptions in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: China base
oils demand unlikely to rebound sharply;
imports to fall further
Overall demand for base oils in China is
unlikely to improve significantly in 2025,
because the domestic economy will still face
challenges. Base oils imports have been in a
downtrend since 2020, and the market share of
domestically produced cargoes has been
continuously rising, which will extend into
2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia’s
oxo-alcohols market braces for oversupply,
squeezed margins
Asia’s oxo-alcohols spot markets are poised
for a rocky year ahead due to oversupply and
weak derivative margins, while a large
buy-sell gap between Chinese buyers and Asian
exporters will likely lead to more merchant
volumes.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia AA,
acrylates to see increased competition, slow
demand growth
The Asia glacial acrylic acid (AA) and
acrylates market is going to see capacity
expanding at a faster pace in 2025 than the
expected demand growth in Asia.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Asia etac,
butac demand skewed towards conservative in
H1 2025
Asia ethyl acetate (etac) and butyl acetate
(butac) markets are bracing for a challenging
demand landscape over the first half of 2025,
factoring in supply length and macroeconomic
concerns.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
chemical freight unlikely to stir in Q1
2025
The chemical tanker market in Asia is
expected to soften into Q1 2025, with
lackluster demand persisting amid a likely
warmer winter in the northern hemisphere.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia
methanol demand still uncertain amid new
capacities
The outlook for methanol in Asia continues to
be uncertain, with factors such as additional
capacity, seasonal gas issues and upcoming
downstream demand expected to play a role in
this.
OUTLOOK ’25: China’s
methanol demand growth may outpace supply
increase amid slowing expansion
China’s methanol market may remain balanced
to tight in the first half of 2025, as supply
increase may fall behind demand growth, but
domestic and overseas supply are expected to
sustain modest growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: Asia MTBE
demand to depend on gasoline, China’s
oversupply remains
The outlook for Asian methyl tertiary butyl
ether (MTBE) remains uncertain, with factors
such as added supply in China, volatility in
crude prices and demand for gasoline expected
to impact market movements in the coming
months.
OUTLOOK ’25: China MTBE
supply-demand imbalance to intensify, exports
remain key
More capacity expansions and a lack of growth
in gasoline blending amid sluggish domestic
gasoline demand will keep methyl tertiary
butyl ether (MTBE) producers in China under
heavy pressure to maintain domestic sales in
2025, with exports still their main area for
growth momentum.
OUTLOOK ‘25: China
titanium dioxide makers poised for challenges
ahead
Players in Asia’s spot titanium dioxide
(TiO2) market are set to start the new year
with two big questions.
Speciality Chemicals10-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The tentative agreement between US
Gulf and East Coast ports and dockworkers has
taken some of the pressure off rates for
shipping containers from Asia to the US, but
the threat of tariffs
proposed by President-elect Donald Trump is
likely to support higher prices moving forward.
Supply chain advisors Drewry expect importers
to continue front-loading volumes ahead of
anticipated tariff hikes.
Global average rates from Drewry rose by 2%
this week, as shown in the following chart.
Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles surged by
more than 13%, and rates from Shanghai to New
York jumped by almost 10%, as shown in the
following chart from Drewry.
Rates from online freight shipping marketplace
and platform provider Freightos showed a
similar surge, with rates to the West Coast
soaring by 23% and rates to the East Coast
jumping by 13%.
Upward pressure on rates persists as imports
are expected to continue to surge because of
potential increases in tariffs, according to
the National Retail Federation (NRF).
“The new [ILA] contract brings certainty and
avoids disruptions, and we hope to see it
ratified as soon as possible,” NRF Vice
President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy
Jonathan Gold said.
But Gold said because the agreement came at the
last minute, retailers were already bringing in
spring merchandise early to ensure that they
would be well-stocked to serve their customers
in case of another disruption, resulting in
higher imports.
“The surge in imports has also been driven by
President-elect Trump’s plan to increase
tariffs because retailers want to avoid higher
costs that will eventually be paid by
consumers,” Gold said. “The long-term impact on
imports remains to be seen.”
The Global Port Tracker from the NRF and
Hackett Associates, shows in the following
chart that US ports handled 2.17 million TEUs
(20-foot equivalent units) in November,
although the ports of New York and New Jersey
have yet to report final data.
That was down 3.2% from October but up 14.7%
year over year.
Ports have yet to report December data, but
Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.24
million TEU, up 19.2% year over year. That
would bring 2024 to 25.6 million TEU, up 15.2%
from 2023.
January is forecast at 2.16 million TEU, up 10%
year over year; February at 1.87 million TEU,
down 4.5% because of Lunar New Year factory
shutdowns in China.
Thumbnail image shows a container ship.
Photo by Shutterstock
Ethylene10-Jan-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s annual rate of
inflation fell slightly in December to 4.83%,
compared with November’s 4.87%,
according to the country’s statistics office
IBGE on Friday.
However, the Consumer Price Index (IPCA in its
Portuguese acronym) rose in December by 0.52%,
compared with November, which was a clear
acceleration in price increases after
November’s monthly increase stood at 0.39%,
from October.
The price increases month on month in December
could be a sign that the inflation crisis in
Brazil post global inflation crisis will still
take time to abate.
High inflation is likely to prop up higher
interest rates, something
petrochemicals-intensive manufacturing
companies do not like as it keeps customers
away from purchasing higher-priced durable
goods, which is a key end market for chemicals,
as they wait for borrowing costs to come down.
INFLATION WELL ABOVE
TARGET…Brazil’s annual rate of
inflation closed 2024 well above the central
bank’s target of keeping price rises at around
3%, which is the main mandate the bank has.
As long as price rises remain well above that
3%, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) has said
it will continue tightening monetary policy –
bucking the global trend post-inflation crisis,
a countermove which started in August 2024 as
Brazil’s inflation started ticking back up.
Last year, inflation was greatly propped up by
food prices. As 2024 represented a true baptism
of fire for Brazil regarding climate change, it
was precisely climate events which reduced some
harvest or greatly damaged others, filtering
down to the final consumer.
“The index was driven by the rise in food
items, which were influenced by adverse weather
conditions, at various times of the year and in
different parts of the country,” said Fernando
Goncalves, IBGE’s manager for the IPCA.
“Furthermore, as in 2023, gasoline was
responsible for the largest contribution to the
indicator in 2024.”
As price rises gave a respite in the last month
of 2024, so has the real in the first days of
2025, although the gains have been modest, and
the exchange rate remains well below the levels
of a year earlier.
At the beginning of 2023, Brazil’s currency was
trading at $1:R4.86. In Friday’s morning
trading, it was quoted at $1:R6.10, an
improvement from the $1:R6.29 lows posted on 18
December, when concerns among investors about
the Treasury’s fiscal deficit were at its peak.
Brazilian real exchange
rateVersus US dollar. Last 12
months
Source: Trading Economics
…MEANS MORE
TIGHTENINGMost analysts and
economists concur inflation will remain above
target for much of 2025 and, in turn, they
expect further monetary policy tightening to
cool down borrowing and with it the economy,
hopefully bringing prices down as a
consequence, as the theory goes.
On 6 January, the weekly survey among economics
compiled by the BCB showed the consensus now
stands at an average of 4.99% for the annual
inflation rate, on average, in 2025.
Consequently, after having been upgrading their
forecast for several weeks now, this week’s
survey showed economists expect the main
interest rate benchmark, the Selic, to end 2025
at a hefty 15%.
The Selic was set
in December at 12.25%, when the BCB showed
it was serious about its mandate and went hard
with a 100 basis points (bps) increase. In
previous occasions, the central bank had cut or
hike rates by 25bps, or 50bps.
Following inflation data on Friday, analysts at
Capital Economists overall agreed with the
general line of higher inflation will prompt
higher rates, but differed quite a lot on how
high the Selic will end up 2025 at.
“The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate
in December, coupled with the rebound in the
real over the past couple of weeks, will not be
enough to stop Copom following through with
further hikes to the Selic rate at its upcoming
meetings,” they said.
“Copom is likely to be concerned by signs that
underlying price pressures continue to
build – we estimate that the central
bank’s preferred measure of underlying core
services inflation rose again to 5.8%, year on
year, its highest reading since mid-2023.
“In short, there is little in this IPCA release
that will prevent Copom following through with
its guidance at its meeting in December that it
will deliver a further two 100bp of hikes to
the Selic rate, to 14.25%, over its next two
meetings.”
They went on to say that Brazilian economists
“may have got a little carried away” by the
fiscal deficit crisis, with the Selic expected
at 15%.
Capital Economics expects it to end 2025 at
13.25%, although it added that will be
“contingent on officials doing enough to
prevent investors’ fiscal concerns” mounting
further.
Brazil interest rates, Selic
benchmark
Change in %. Last 24 months
Source: Banco Central do Brasil via Trading
Economics
Focus article by Jonathan
Lopez
Speciality Chemicals10-Jan-2025
BARCELONA (ICIS)–Chemicals leaders must plan
for a year in which powerful trends will alter
the markets they serve, promising another
period of rapid change across the industry
landscape.
Global overcapacity will get worse this
year, ICIS Supply & Demand data show
Depressed demand set to continue
Donald Trump tariffs may change trade
flows, fuel inflation
China economy will continue to struggle
Disinformation will make it difficult to
navigate trends
Look for pockets of growth from low carbon
agenda
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews Nigel
Davis and John
Richardson from the ICIS market
development team and Paul
Hodges, chairman of New Normal
Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
Register here.
Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.
Crude Oil10-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global economic growth is
projected to remain at 2.8% in 2025, unchanged
from 2024, weighed by trade tensions spurred by
the incoming Donald Trump administration in the
US as well as geopolitical risks, according to
a United Nations (UN) report.
The US and China – the world’s biggest
economies – are projected to grow at a slower
pace but will be offset by modest recoveries in
the EU, Japan, the UK, as well as robust
performance in India and Indonesia, the UN
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025
report stated.
The UN estimates China’s economic growth at
4.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025; while the US’
2024 GDP growth is expected at 2.8%, which will
slow down to 1.9% this year amid “weaker labor
market performance, modest income growth, and
looming cuts in public spending”.
“Despite continued expansion, the global
economy is projected to grow at a slower pace
than the 2010–2019 (pre-pandemic) average of
3.2%,” according to the report released on 9
January.
Challenges such as weak investment, slow
productivity growth, high debt levels, and
demographic pressures continue to weigh on
economic growth.
Various uncertainties and downside risks
continue to cloud the near-term economic
outlook as well, notably geopolitical tensions
and rising trade and technological tensions,
the report said.
Global trade volume is projected to grow by
3.2% in 2025, subject to these growing
uncertainties, the UN added.
The incoming Trump administration and his
‘America First’ policies, which include tariffs
levied on all foreign goods, will be a major
source of uncertainty in the near-term.
Global inflation has continued its downward
trend, with headline inflation projected to
continue easing to 3.4% in 2025 from 4.0% last
year and 5.6% in 2023, according to the UN
report.
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