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SHIPPING: Container vessel ops at US Port Houston to resume today
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Container vessel operations will begin at Port Houston at 19:00 local time on Wednesday, while all Port Houston facilities will begin normal operations on Thursday. Port Houston closed all facilities on Tuesday, and they will remain closed through Wednesday because of a winter storm that brought snow and icy conditions to the region. Container terminal truck gates closed Monday afternoon and vessel operations were suspended later that evening. At the Port of New Orleans in Louisiana, both Ports America and New Orleans Terminal will remain closed through Thursday. Ports America and New Orleans Terminal will run gate operations on Saturday, 25 January.
UPDATE: US freeze shuts numerous chem plants, major ports
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Winter storm Enzo, which caused a hard freeze along the US Gulf Coast, led to widespread shutdowns among chemical plants and refineries. Companies shut down at least five ethylene glycol (EG) units and at least eight crackers because of bad weather. Other plants, such as a propane dehydrogenation (PDH) unit, also shut down. Pre-emptive shutdowns and operational disruptions reported so far include: BASF idles Geismar, Louisiana, EO operations following winter weather BASF TotalEnergies cracker shuts down due to weather Dow’s Plaquemine, Louisiana, glycol ethers site down following winter weather Dow’s Taft, Louisiana, glycol ethers site down following winter weather Dow idles Taft, Louisiana, EO site following winter weather Dow’s Taft, Louisiana, ethanolamines site down following winter weather Enterprise’s PDH1 unit in Texas has unplanned shutdown Formosa shuts Louisiana PVC unit ahead of freeze GCGV Portland, Texas, EG site down ahead of freezing temperatures Indorama’s Clear Lake, Texas, EG site down for winter weather Indorama Lake Charles cracker shut due to weather Indorama shuts Port Neches, Texas, cracker ahead of winter storm Indorama’s Port Neches, Texas, ethanolamines unit down due to winter weather Indorama’s Port Neches, Texas, EG unit down ahead of winter weather Ingleside, Texas, cracker shut before winter storm LACC Lotte/Westlake Louisiana cracker and EG unit down ahead of winter weather Lyondell Channelview, Texas, crackers flaring on operations issues Lyondell La Porte, Texas, cracker shutting due to weather Sasol’s Lake Charles, Louisiana, EO unit down following freezing temperatures Shell’s Geismar, Louisiana, EO, EG site down following winter weather SHUTDOWNS AT REFINERIES AND BIOFUELSMotiva’s refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, experienced unexpected interruptions and shutdowns of several critical pieces of equipment, it said in a filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The disruptions caused emissions at a catalytic reformer, a fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit and a delayed coker unit. Renewable Biofuels conducted a planned shutdown at its biodiesel plant in Port Neches, Texas, for freeze protection, according to a filing with the TCEQ. MIDSTREAM DISRUPTIONSIn some cases, midstream companies reported freeze offs and hydrates forming. If these happen on a wide enough scale, they could interrupt the supply of natural gas. Chemical plants and refineries burn natural gas to produce process heat, and power plants use it to produce electricity. PORTSPorts in Houston and New Orleans were closed through Wednesday because of cold weather. Container vessel operations will begin at Port Houston at 19:00 local time on Wednesday, while all Port Houston facilities will begin normal operations on Thursday. NO WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES Texas avoided the widespread power outages that had led to several plant shutdowns during winter storm Uri in 2021. FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO END BY FRIDAYTemperatures rose above freezing during Wednesday, and daily highs should continue to rise as the week progresses. Lows should be just below freezing on Wednesday and Thursday, according to meteorologists. (Thumbnail shows snow, which can precipitate in the type of cold weather that can disrupt plant operations. Image by Michael Ainsworth/AP/Shutterstock)
Brazil’s grain harvest expected at record 322 million tonnes, up 8%
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s fertilizers-intensive agricultural sector is expected to produce 322.3 million of grains, pulses, and oilseeds in the 2024-2025 harvest, up 8.2% year on year, according to the National Supply Company (Conab). Soybean production will continue dominating Brazil’s agro sector as exports are expected to keep rising, with a sharp recovery in output after a lower-than-expected harvest in the previous period. In 2024-2025, Brazil’s is expected to produce more than 166 million tonnes of soybean, up by more than 11% from the prior harvest. The country’s warm weather and its fertile land allows for two harvests a year in some grains, such as corn for which total production is expected at 119.6 million tonnes in 2024/2025, up 3.3%. Rice output is also expected to rise sharply in the current cycle, up 13.2% to 11.99 million. The 2023-2024 cycle was greatly disrupted by weather events such the historic floods in Rio Grande do Sul state in May 2024 as well as high temperatures and a severe drought in other parts of the country. In 2024, Brazil’s harvest stood at 292.7 million tonnes, down 7.2% from 2023. “After a year of crop failure, the current cycle tends to recover the average productivity of crops. For this season, an average yield of 3,509 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) is expected, compared to 3,201 kg/ha recorded in 2023/2024,” said Conab. “The planting of the oilseed occurred in a concentrated manner, mainly from the end of October. As a result, the harvest should also occur, for the most part, from the end of January. The weather conditions, in the period analyzed, have been favorable for the crop so far.” WORLD BREADBASKETAfter dips in the previous cycle, Brazil’s grain exports, which have made it a key breadbasket for the world’s markets, are expected to regain much of the ground lost. In 2024-2025, soybean exports are expected at 105.47 million tonnes, up from the prior cycle’s 98.6 million tonnes. Among others, China is one of the key consumers of Brazilian soybean, which the country uses mostly to feed livestock. Corn exports are expected to fall as domestic consumption rises, said Conab, with shipments overseas expected at 34 million tonnes, down from 38.5 million tonnes – the result of a higher, 86.4 million tonnes consumption by Brazilian consumers, up from 83.57 million tonnes in the previous cycle. “An important addition to rice on Brazilians’ plates, total bean production is also expected to grow by 4.9%, estimated at 3.4 million tonnes, the second largest harvest in the last 15 years, behind only the 2013/2014 season,” said Conab. “The result reflects both the increase in area and productivity. In the first legume harvest alone, the harvest is expected to increase by 15.5%, estimated at just over 1 million tonnes. The harvest of this first cycle of the crop is underway, with 19.4% completed in the first week of January.”

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Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation enters into law
LONDON (ICIS)–The Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) has passed into law following its publication in the Official Journal of the EU on Wednesday. The PPWR was certain to pass into law following the EU Council vote in December, but the date of publication marks the date the legislation comes into force. This date is important for several of the clauses. For example, the EU Commission will be required to review the state of technological development and environmental performance of bio-based plastic packaging within 3 years of the commencement of the PPWR. The PPWR is one of the most significant pieces of legislation for the packaging and recycling value chains in decades and will fundamentally reshape both industries in the coming decades. The wide-ranging regulation introduces: • Mandated packaging recyclability • Minimum recycled content and reuse targets across packaging, albeit with potential derogations based on availability of recycled material • Mandatory deposit return schemes (DRS) and separate packaging collection targets • New reporting and labeling obligations • Extension of extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes • Restriction on placing on the market of food-contact packaging containing per- and polyfluorinated alkyl substances (PFAS) above certain thresholds • Restriction on plastic collation films except for transportation purposes • Possibility of bio-based plastic contributing to recycling targets • Allowance of imports to count toward recycling targets provided they are of similar quality as domestic material and have been separately collected More details on the scope and impact of the PPWR can be found here. ICIS assesses more than 100 grades throughout the recycled plastic value chain globally – from waste bales through to pellets. This includes recycled polyethylene (rPE), recycled PET (rPET), rPP, mixed plastic waste and pyrolysis oil. On 1 October, ICIS launched a recycled polyolefins agglomerate price range as part of the Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis Oil (Europe) pricing service. For more information on ICIS’s recycled plastic products, please contact the ICIS recycling team at recycling@icis.com.
INSIGHT: Trump’s first-day orders lay groundwork for future tariffs
HOUSTON (ICIS)–US President Donald Trump did not propose any new tariffs on his first day in office, but he did issue an executive order that calls for his administration to conduct the investigations needed to impose them under several sections of the law – in many cases, repeating the same playbook Trump used during his first term in office. While the investigations take place, the US can use the threat of possible tariffs to negotiate agreements. If the negotiations fail, the US would have taken the steps necessary to respond with tariffs. Trump did indicate that he is considering imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as 1 February. This could rely on using existing laws in unprecedented ways. The US chemical industry is vulnerable to tariffs because it has deficits in commodities such as benzene, melamine and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK). Its large exports of plastics make it vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. TRUMP LAYS FOUNDATION FOR TARIFFSAmong the investigations that will be launched by Trump’s executive order, those into national security could lead to Section 232 tariffs, which Trump imposed on steel during his first term. Discriminatory trade practices would open the door to Section 201 tariffs, which were imposed on washing machines and solar panels. Unfair trade practices could lead to Section 301 tariffs. The US imposed these against numerous Chinese imports. That unleashed a trade war, with China imposing retaliatory tariffs, many of which targeted US exports of plastics and chemicals. POSSIBLE NEW TARIFFSTrump’s first-day order pointed to other reviews that his administration could complete faster and lead to new tariffs imposed under different sections of the law. These could fall under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA), Section 338 and Section 122. Trump’s first-day order did not mention these specific laws, but it did mention national security, discriminatory actions against US products and balance of payment deficits – all issues that these laws were designed to address. These laws could allow Trump to impose tariffs on a faster schedule. The IEEPA only requires consultation with Congress, and Section 1222 can apparently be imposed unilaterally, according to the American Action Forum (AAF), a think tank. THREAT OF CANADIAN, MEXICAN TARIFFS ON 1 FEBRUARYTrump would need such speed if he were to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico goods on 1 February, a possibility that he mentioned on Monday, according to CNBC and other publications. Drug trafficking and immigration could provide the national security basis needed under these laws. REVISITING THE PHASE 1 AGREEMENT WITH CHINATrump’s first-day order called for a review of the Economic and Trade Agreement to determine if China is living up to its end of the deal. The agreement is more commonly known as the phase one deal, and the two countries signed it in January 2020. It included commitments by China to purchase more goods from the US; to adopt policies that will protect intellectual property; and to reduce pressure on companies to transfer technology. China has not fulfilled its import commitments under the agreement, and Trump’s order said the country could impose additional tariffs in response. US CHEMS VULNERABLE TO TARIFFSUnless Trump carves out exceptions, his proposed tariffs on China and Mexico could raise costs for US chemical producers. Canada provides US refiners with heavier grades of oil that are not produced in sufficient quantities domestically for the nation’s refineries. Canadian oil complements the light grades of oil that the US produces in abundance from its shale fields. Regional US markets may rely on Canadian imports because they are closer than the more distant sources along the US Gulf. Those customers will have to reroute their supply chains if they want to avoid tariffs. For the broader tariffs that Trump proposed in his campaign, they could prompt countries to impose retaliatory duties on US shipments of plastics and chemicals. The US is vulnerable to such tariffs because it has large surpluses of many plastics and chemicals, such as vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), methanol, ethylene glycols (EG), polyethylene (PE) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Tariffs on Chinese imports of rare earth materials would increase production costs for catalysts. Tariffs on fluorspar and hydrofluoric acid (HF) could increase costs for US producers of fluorochemicals and fluoropolymers. Insight article by Al Greenwood (Thumbnail shows cranes and containers, which make up important infrastructure used in international trade. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)
SHIPPING: Winter weather closes US Port Houston, NOLA through Wednesday
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Ports in Houston and New Orleans were closed on Tuesday because of winter weather and are likely to remain closed through Wednesday. Port Houston closed all facilities on Tuesday, and they will remain closed through Wednesday because of a winter storm that brought snow and icy conditions to the region. Container terminal truck gates closed Monday afternoon and vessel operations were suspended later that evening. “We potentially will resume vessel operations at the container terminals on Wednesday evening, if conditions allow,” port officials said around midday on Wednesday. Port Houston has committed to opening gates at 7 am on Saturday to assist customers with ingate closing at 5 pm. At Port NOLA in Louisiana, a freeze plan was enacted on Sunday that halted water flow to terminals, which is expected to resume on Wednesday. The New Orleans terminal said it was closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr holiday. “We will determine opening the gates on Saturday, 25 January once the weather has passed,” terminal operators said. Container and breakbulk operations at Ports America are closed today and on Wednesday. Port Freeport said it expects vessel activity to be limited on Tuesday because of the weather. Port Houston is the busiest port in vessel and barge movements and the largest US port by tonnage, with more than 200 docks and 270 facilities. It is also the top US port for petroleum and the fifth largest container port in terms of TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) in 2022. The port is also home to the largest petrochemical manufacturing complex in the nation. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks.
UPDATE: US Gulf Coast chemical plants reel from cold snap
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Cold weather in the US Gulf Coast on Tuesday is expected to disrupt petrochemicals operations in Texas and Louisiana as companies take preventive measures. Temperatures fell sharply overnight from Monday and are expected to stay lower than the average for the time of the year in coming days, with potential rain, sleet and snow. The Houston metropolitan got snow in the early hours of Tuesday. The city is to record freezing temperatures all nights this week to Friday (see bottom table). CHEMICALS PLANTSUS Gulf Coast crude and petrochemicals players’ memories of the last disrupting cold snap in 2024 and winter storm Uri in 2021 are still fresh, with many fearing similar disruption this week as key petrochemicals hubs in the area are set to witness a similar cold snap. In such a scenario, companies have done all they could to minimize the disruption, although some factors could be outside their control despite the preparations. Germany’s chemicals major BASF said in a written response to ICIS late on Monday that its operations in Freeport, Texas, would “continue to run at as much capacity as possible” but conceded that potential snowfall could greatly complicate access to and from the site. As of Monday, BASF said: “[Due to the snow] roads possibly being impassable. As a result, BASF will have ride out crews arriving Monday evening and remaining until conditions improve, which is expected to be on Wednesday late morning,” said a spokesperson for the company. “Non-critical employees will work from home. The BASF site in Vidalia, Louisiana, will idle operations beginning Monday evening with a planned restart of Wednesday at noon.” As Houston recorded heavy snowfall overnight, BASF was enquired again about its impact on Freeport, but the company had not responded to the request at the time of writing. BASF’s spokesperson added the company’s sites in Geismar and North Geismar, in the state of Louisiana, would continue to run as normal. In another written response to ICIS, a spokesperson for Brazil’s polymers major Braskem said the company had activated its severe weather preparedness plan for its assets in La Porte, Seadrift, and Oyster Creek, all in Texas. “We will continue to monitor the severe weather and follow our protocols to ensure our team members and assets are safe during this time. We are working with our clients to minimize the impact of this weather event,” it added. A spokesperson for CPChem also said the company was monitoring the weather and “taking steps to prepare” its plants for any potential impact. A spokesperson for European chemicals major INEOS said the company’s olefins, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) units “have initiated winter storm” protocols. LyondellBasell would not comment. A spokesperson for the company said to ICIS: “As a matter of practice, we don’t provide specific details about our units, operational status, production figures, or supply for competitive reasons.” Pre-emptive shutdowns and operational disruptions reported so far include: BASF TotalEnergies cracker shuts down due to weather Formosa shuts Louisiana PVC unit ahead of freeze GCGV Portland, Texas, EG site down ahead of freezing temperatures Indorama’s Clear Lake, Texas, EG site down for winter weather Indorama Lake Charles cracker shut due to weather Indorama shuts Port Neches, Texas, cracker ahead of winter storm Indorama’s Port Neches, Texas, EG unit down ahead of winter weather Ingleside, Texas, cracker shut before winter storm LACC Lotte/Westlake Louisiana cracker and EG unit down ahead of winter weather Lyondell Channelview, Texas, crackers flaring on operations issues Lyondell La Porte, Texas, cracker sees weather-related flaring THREAT OF POWER OUTAGES AND GAS OUTAGESWhile industrial plants can avoid direct damage from cold weather, they can still be subject to power outages or the loss of natural gas supplies. If the forecasts for sleet and snow hold true, then this could cause powerlines to snap. Spikes in demand for heating can overwhelm the power grid in Texas, leading to widespread blackouts. Chemical plants and refineries rely on electricity to power motors and pumps. As of Tuesday, power supply should be sufficient to meet demand through 28 January, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which manages the flow of electricity in most of the state. The electricity grid in Texas was holding up reasonably well as of Tuesday morning, with nearly 48,000 power outages recorded according to Poweroutage.us. The figure is reasonably low for Texas’ grid standards and was much lower than the more than 80,000 outages reported in California, a US state with similar population to Texas which is still reeling from wildfires around Los Angeles. Cold temperatures can also affect the flow of natural gas, potentially causing freeze-offs during which water or hydrates freeze or can create blockages. One such freeze-off caused on Monday a shutdown of a scrubber at an amine treater in Winkler county in west Texas, according to a filing with the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). Low temperatures could disrupt operations at the plants that process natural gas. Since 2021, cold weather has disrupted US natural gas production during every winter, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). PROLONGED STRETCH OF FREEZING TEMPERATURESThe following table shows the weather forecast for the Houston metropolitan area this week, with temperatures listed in Fahrenheit first and, in brackets, in Celsius. Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday High 36 (2.2) 42 (5.6) 48 (8.9) 52 (11) Low 22 (-5.6) 29 (-1.7) 29 (-1.7) 37 (2.8) Source: National Weather Service Eric Berger, an analyst at Houston’s weather blog Space City Weather, said on Tuesday that infrastructure disruption should have cleared by Wednesday morning, although in some locations it may last practically all day. “After a cold start, high temperatures on Wednesday are expected to reach 40 degrees [Fahrenheit] or even a little warmer under sunny skies. The combination of mostly sunny skies and sublimation should allow for roads to mostly dry out, but for some locations, this may not happen until after noon,” said Berger. “I realize the uncertainty is no fun, but such snow and ice events are relatively rare in Houston, so we are working on limited data about local roads and their response to icy conditions. Most of Houston will fall into the upper 20s [Fahrenheit] on Wednesday night.” Front page picture: Houston’s suburbs after heavy snowfall overnightSource: Adam Yanelli/ICIS Additional reporting by Al Greenwood, John Donnelly and Melissa Wheeler
German economic outlook weaker in January amid bleak GDP forecast
LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s economic outlook deteriorated in January on the back of a bleak GDP forecast and increasing inflationary pressures, research group ZEW said on Tuesday. The ZEW Indicator for Economic Sentiment fell by 5.4 points from the previous month to 10.3 points. Source: ZEW The group said that two consecutive years of recession, with GDP contracting in 2023 and 2024, had caused expectations to fall. In December, Germany’s central bank cut its 2025 and 2026 GDP growth projections for the country. A lack of private household spending and subdued construction demand continue to stall Germany’s economy, the group’s president Achim Wambach said in a statement. “If these trends continue in the current year, Germany will fall further behind the other countries of the eurozone.” Domestic political uncertainty and a so-far unpredictable economic policy from the new Trump administration in the US also contributed to weaker sentiment, Wambach added. The current economic situation indicator for Germany rose slightly by 2.7 points but was still firmly in negative territory at (minus) -90.4 points. In the wider eurozone, the January outlook was more positive with a 1.0 point rise in the economic sentiment indicator to 18.0 points. The current situation was 1.2 points higher than in December but still negative at (minus) -53.8 points. “The ZEW index is in line with the sentiment expressed in the December PMI numbers, which signaled that the European economy remains weak despite our expectations of a pick-up in momentum,” advisory firm Oxford Economics added in a statement.
Asia petrochemical shares, China futures markets mixed as Trump takes US reins
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shares of petrochemical firms in Asia and China’s commodity futures markets closed mixed on Tuesday, with no immediate announcement of new tariffs from the US on the first day of Donald Trump’s second term as president. South Korea’s LG Chem closed 4.75% lower in Seoul , while Japan’s Mitsubishi Chemical finished 1.85% higher in Tokyo. China’s state oil and gas firm PetroChina was down 1.40%, while chemicals major Sinopec ended down 1.62% in Hong Kong. The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark for Chinese mainland shares, edged up 0.08% to close at 3,832.61. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose by 0.32% to settle at 39,027.98, while South Korea’s KOSPI Composite Index ended 0.08% lower at 2,518.03. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index finished the session 0.91% higher at 20,106.55. Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) was trading 0.27% lower at 3,797.61 at 08:44 GMT. Analysts said that markets have already pre-digested the “Trump effect”. In his presidential campaign, Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on all US imports. His first four-year term as US president in 2017-2021 sparked the US-China trade war. In China, six out of nine petrochemical futures markets posted declines on Tuesday.   CNY/tonne 21-Jan % change from previous session Linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE)                                   7,808 -0.3% Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)                                   5,304 0.6% Ethylene glycol (EG)                                   4,753 -0.2% Polypropylene (PP)                                   7,400 -0.7% Styrene monomer (SM)                                   8,520 0.0% Paraxylene *                                   7,420 -0.1% Purified terephthalic acid (PTA)*                                   5,192 -0.2% Methanol*                                   2,591 0.6% Polyethylene terephthalate  (PET)*                                   6,388 -0.2% Sources: Dalian Commodity Exchange, *Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Overall trading activity in China’s petrochemical markets is waning as many players have suspended trading to prepare for the upcoming Lunar new year holiday, which will last eight days from 28 January. ($1 = CNY7.28) Additional reporting by Nurluqman Suratman
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