Regulator to launch consultation on tariffs for 2025-2029 Long-haul tariffs could be adjusted if transit deal reached at later date Current short-haul tariffs to stay in place until 31 March, 2025 Entry-exit gas transmission tariffs in Ukraine are expected to more than double going into the new regulatory period 2025-2029, according to NERC. The Ukraine regulator published its latest proposals for the change versus current rates on 8 November. The tariffs, which will undergo a public consultation from 13 November, apply to Ukraine’s borders with the EU and Moldova, but do not include the Sudzha and Sokhranivka interconnection points with Russia. The proposed entry tariff on all EU borders, exclusive of value added tax, stands at €10.30/1000m3 (approximately €1.05/MWh), compared to $4.094/1000m3 (approximately €0.389/MWh) at the moment. At exit points, tariffs differ marginally on EU borders, however. The proposed tariffs range between €14.60/1000m3 on the Polish border to €15.76/1000m3 at the Hungarian Bereg virtual interconnection point. These were calculated based on a no-Russian transit scenario from 2025. If an agreement is reached at a later date, they could be further adjusted, a market source said. Current short-haul tariffs for imports into storage or short-distance transmission of gas will remain unchanged until March 31, 2025. The Ukrainian gas grid operator, GTSOU has previously suggested that it would seek to change the tariff methodology for the calculation of short-haul tariffs to offer discounts at exit points. But it plans to auction entry points in future, too.

Additional reporting by Jake Stones LONDON (ICIS)–On 31 October 2024, the Dutch government launched for consultation its proposal for an industrial obligation to use renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), marking one of the first measures in Europe to encourage the use of renewable hydrogen associated with the renewable energy directive’s (RED III) targets for industrial decarbonisation. The scheme, renewable hydrogen industry units (HWI), focuses on setting obligations for the use of RFNBO for particular industrial participants, such as those who use more than 0.1kt of hydrogen per year, and broadly aligns with recent guidance from the European Commission. The exception is that hydrogen use associated with ammonia production does not fall under the obligation under the Dutch scheme. The HWI scheme awards RED III obligated market participants an HWI credit for each unit of renewable hydrogen, RFNBO, used in industry. The HWI can then be used to reflect a market participant has met its obligation over the year, or the party can trade the HWI with another obligated party that is yet to meet its quota. To provide a full overview of the proposal’s framework, ICIS has produced the following infographic explainer: For any further information regarding ICIS hydrogen content, please reach out to jake.stones@icis.com or sebastian.braun@icis.com

LONDON (ICIS)–“Cut the debt burden, don’t decimate the economy” This was the message in miniature from IMF chief economist Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas when several reporters posed questions about the then-upcoming UK budget at a press conference on 24 October. Reporters from both sides of the political aisle raised questions over the potential impact of the budget, which had been expected to focus on aggressive cost-cutting after weeks of the ruling Labour government fulminating about Conservative debt. Widening the scope of the question beyond the UK, Gourinchas noted that high debt levels left countries more exposed to fiscal shocks that could precipitate the need to cut services dramatically and quickly. “When countries have elevated debt levels, when interest rates are high, when growth is OK but not great, there is a risk that things could escalate or get out of control quickly,” he said. “Most countries have important needs when it comes to spending, whether it’s about central services, what we think about healthcare, or if we think about public investment and climate transition. So we need to protect also the type of spending that can be good for growth,” he added. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves seems to have kept that balance in mind with a high-tax, high borrowing, high spending budget, with increases targeting businesses through higher per-employee tax contributions, farmers through tighter inheritance tax rules, and the wealthy through more tax on private schools and private planes. The measures are expected to modestly goose economic growth in the short term but less so further ahead, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, which estimates that national GDP will grow 2% next year. This slows down after, back to the prevailing trend of 1.5% per year. The budget represents one of the largest increases in taxation ever seen in the country, but the UK is far from alone in this. With borrowing costs high over the last few years and economies still paying the bill on pandemic and energy crisis-era borrowing, taxation is high across much of the developed world at present. Debt as a share of GDP is not expected to rise through to the end of the decade on the back of the budget, but nor is it expected to fall, standing at just under 100%. UK debt as a proportion of GDP Higher spending is likely to drive higher inflation in the short term, with levels now expected to firm from 1.7% in September 2024 to a quarterly peak of 2.7% in mid-2025, according to the OBR. The core UK sector trade body, the Chemical Industries Association (CIA), cautiously greeted the increase in investment spending, something that has been sorely lacking in the UK for decades. “We are pleased to see increases in investment after the UK has been in the bottom of the G7 for investment as a share of GDP for 24 of the past 30 years,” said CIA head of economics Michela Borra. That persistent low ranking has endured despite the decline for other western European economies in the G7 club in the face of weakening international competitiveness. Whether the level of public industrial investment is sufficiently substantial to drive growth remains to be seen, however. The budget earmarks £2 billion for the automotive industry for zero-emission vehicles and related supply chains, and £975 million for aerospace research, to be eked out over five years. Life sciences spending  is also set to get a bump, with £520 million to go to the creation of a Life Sciences Innovative Manufacturing Fund “to build resilience for future health emergencies”, the UK Treasury said. Automotive, aerospace and life sciences are key end markets for the upstream chemicals sector and all additional growth investment is a welcome surprise when the expectation in the run-up was for no new funding or spending cuts. That said, the electric vehicle market has slowed to a cruise after years of steady year-on-year growth, with still-developing technologies and charging infrastructure availability continuing to spook consumers. Charging infrastructure remains a Catch-22 problem, with consumers put off by limited availability and providers sceptical of demand growth levels. Firms have moved to take the first step but the level of investment in electric vehicle charging networks remains below what is needed. Another significant milestone is the recognition of a fuel-exempt mass balance approach for content in chemical recycling, which could help to map out the landscape for the sector as it matures. Under fuel exempt mass balance accounting rules, volumes used in fuel applications would not be attributable as recycled material, but material not ending up in fuels would be freely attributable across the value chain. Far larger than all the chemicals end market funding outlined in the budget is the nearly £22 billion for carbon capture and blue hydrogen announced earlier in October. With an aim to strengthen two of the country’s regional industrial clusters, the funding is expected to develop two carbon capture projects in Merseyside and Teesside, as well as two clean hydrogen production plants. Chief among the benefits of the budget is the hope that this will represent a stable longer-term roadmap for business investment, after a period of substantial changeability for government priorities during the ministerial and leadership churn of the last few years of Conservative government. “Capital intensive sectors such as chemicals will welcome this Government’s commitment to longer term policy stability – be it through its industrial strategy; its corporation tax roadmap or its full expensing regime to encourage investment in plant and equipment,” said CIA chief Steve Elliott. Despite the stronger than expected focus on capital investment, there is little direct uplift for the chemicals sector, which remains the UK’s third-largest industry in terms of GDP contribution. The only reference to the sector in the full budget text is to the mass balance recognition and, while greater focus and clarity on carbon, hydrogen and renewable power remain vital for the evolution of the sector, it remains difficult to hold policymaker attention. With the number of strategic reviews of European chemicals footprints by large global players continue to pile up, the lack of impetus to shore up a sector that has been mired in low and declining growth continues to pose a threat to its future viability. “It’s now all about delivery as the UK and wider Europe has become increasingly unattractive to global investors in manufacturing,” said Elliott. “Urgent action – and in many cases partnership between industry and government – is required if UK chemical businesses are to boost their already significant contributions to the macro-economy; strengthen their resilience in supporting the nation’s critical infrastructure and enable the country’s transition to a net zero future,” he added. Insight by Tom Brown.

With growing occurence of negative prices amid renewable penetration, more battery storage capacity will be needed Wide intra-day spreads to remain top revenue option for BESS, but margins can tighten as more capacity comes online Cross-markets optimization, battery degradation among key challenges for operators LONDON (ICIS)–Batteries can help mitigate negative wholesale power prices and wide intraday spreads but there is currently not enough capacity installed to eliminate them, Pierre Lebon, director of analytics at cQuant.io, told ICIS in an interview. Nevertheless, as new battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity comes online, it is likely that the occurrence of negative power prices will decrease, the expert noted. ICIS Analytics showed increased flexibility will be crucial in the long-run to improving solar capture prices, though expansion of battery and electrolyser capacity will remain far below the level of renewable expansion in the next few years. The latest ICIS analytics models predict 63.3GW battery storage capacity for EU countries by 2035. The European resource adequacy assessment, ENTSO-E’s annual assessment of the risks to EU security of electricity supply for up to 10 years ahead, showed Germany would be a leader in battery capacity growth across the bloc, while outside EU, the UK has the highest available capacity. It is difficult to identify an optimal ratio of renewable capacity to BESS, as many factors must be taken into account and the supply balance will ultimately depend on each country’s generation mix and demand profile, as well as variable weather conditions. As of September, the number of hours with negative prices in Germany more than doubled to 373 compared to 166 in 2023.  These could have been mitigated by an adequate battery storage capacity, in turn reining in some price spikes in times of lower renewable supply. DURATION The vast majority of battery systems in Europe are currently two- to four-hour batteries and “that’s mostly for economic reasons,” Lebon said. “If you have a four-hour battery, if you divide the power by two, you get an eight-hour battery. So you can change the duration if you change the capacity, it then becomes a matter of financial optimization,” he explained. There are currently new technologies such as iron salt battery (ISB) – also known as iron redox flow  battery (IRFB) – which can allow to build battery storage plants with a duration of up to 12-24 hours, however Lebon noted that, while the market is already looking into these technologies, they are still in early development. This seems confirmed by calculations from ICIS based on ERAA data, showing short (one hour) and medium (four hour) duration batteries will remain the preferred technology for the coming years.   REVENUES OPTIONS Operators don’t necessarily need to have a negative power price to have a profitable battery, since BESS make money on the spread between the lowest price of the day or based on the duration that they can capture, Lebon explained. “It [negative power prices] adds the extra cherry on top of the cake, which is that you get paid to actually charge the battery,” he said. In markets with a strong ‘duck-shaped’ intra-day curve, the battery operators “can see a lot of value in intra-day trading” and less so on the ancillary services markets, Lebon added. Ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage control, reserves and black start capabilities are needed to maintain power grids stability and guarantee an uninterrupted supply of electricity. Lebon noted that while battery operators typically consider the potential revenue from both intraday power markets and ancillary services, the stability of the revenue structures associated with the ancillary markets is often questioned. This is because transmission system operators (TSOs) and regulators tend to frequently change the rules and conditions of these markets. While cross-markets optimization – operating both on intraday and ancillary markets to maximize revenue sources – is possible, technical constraints or the legal paperwork needed to access ancillary markets can lead some operators to prioritize only one of these depending on the company’s structure and resources, the expert noted. INVESTING NOW? Penetration of batteries into European markets can reduce intra-day spreads, tightening margins for battery operators. Experts have previously told ICIS that early investors could benefit more from current wide power prices spreads than waiting for cheaper technologies. “The longer it takes for that technology to come in, the more likely it is that this technology will come [online] at a time where the spreads are crushed [by more battery storage capacity being installed],” Lebon added. BATTERY DEGRADATION The degradation of current lithium-ion utility-scale battery systems depends on several factors, including technology, number of cycles and temperatures. ICIS understands the typical yearly degradation can range between 2-5% and plants lifespan between 10-20 years, as reported in the lifetime warranty provided by some producers. A study by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory indicated 15 years as the median lifespan based on several published values. Degradation is a key challenge in the optimization of battery assets, Lebon noted, adding that operators need to ensure their cycles strategy is compatible with manufacturers’ instructions and warranty.

LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s controversial gas storage fee may be rolled forward into January 2025 as plans to scrap it may not be approved following the fall of the coalition government. The German government announced earlier in June the charge levied on gas exported from the country would be scrapped from January 1, 2025. But the fee abolishment has not been formally approved by the German parliament yet, and traders now fear that following the collapse of the government on 7 November, and plans for snap elections, proposals to scrap the fee would drop off the agenda before the end of the year. The fee was introduced in 2022 and has been increased every six months, raising discontent from regional countries pinning their hopes on imports from or via Germany. It was raised from €1.86/MWh to €2.5/MWh from 1 July 2024. The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action did not immediately reply to ICIS’s questions related to proposals to scrap the fee. It is unclear whether the proposals were part of a wider Ukraine assistance package, which was expected to be adopted in the upcoming weeks. “This is already having an impact on a decision involving gas flows,” Doug Wood, gas committee chair at Energy Traders Europe, told ICIS on 7 November. “We hope this can be resolved before the end of the year.” Wood said that if the proposal to scrap the fee is included in the Ukraine assistance package it may have greater chances to be approved before the end of the year. The fee was strongly opposed by companies and regulators in central and eastern Europe, because since its introduction, the cost to import gas from or via Germany had risen significantly, Markus Krug, deputy head of gas department at the Austrian regulator E-Control, told ICIS the watchdog was “very much concerned in which direction the situation is going. ” He said E-Control may have to take a decision to approach the European Commission and the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators once again and raise their concerns about the impact of the fee on gas flows in central and eastern Europe.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Oil and gas production, the main source of the feedstock and energy used by the petrochemical industry, should benefit from policies proposed by President-Elect Donald Trump, while hydrogen and renewable fuels could lose some of the support they receive from the federal government. Trump expressed enthusiastic and consistent support for oil and gas production during his campaign. He pledged to remove what he called the electric vehicle (EV) mandate of his predecessor, President Joe Biden. Trump may attempt to eliminate green energy subsidies in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) BRIGHTER SENTIMENT ON ENERGYRegardless of who holds the presidency, US oil and gas production has grown because much of it has taken place on the private lands of the Permian basin. Private land is free from federal restrictions and moratoria on leases. That said, the federal government could indirectly restrict energy production, and statements from the president could sour the sentiment in the industry. During his term, US President Joe Biden antagonized the industry by accusing it of price gouging, halting new permits for LNG permits and revoking the permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline on his first day in office. By contrast, Trump has pledged to remove federal impediments to the industry, such as permits, taxes, leases and restrictions on drilling. WHY ENERGY POLICY MATTERSPrices for plastics and chemicals tend to rise and fall with those for oil. For US producers, feedstock costs for ethylene tend to rise and fall with those for natural gas. Also, most of the feedstock used by chemical producers comes from oil and gas production. Policies that encourage energy production should lower costs for chemical plants. RETREAT FROM RENEWABLES, EVsTrump has pledged to reverse many of the sustainability policies made by Biden. Just as Trump did in his first term, he would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. For electric vehicles (EVs), Trump said he would “cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations”. He said he would end the following policies: The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) recent tailpipe rule, which gradually restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from light vehicles. The Department of Transportation’s (DoT) Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) program, which mandates fuel-efficiency standards. These became stricter in 2024. The EPA was expected to decide if California can adopt its Advanced Clean Car II (ACC II) program, which would phase out the sale of combustion-based vehicles by 2035. If the EPA grants California’s request, that would trigger similar programs in several other states. Given Trump’s opposition to government restrictions on combustion-based automobiles, the EPA would likely reject California’s proposal under his presidency or attempt to reverse it if approved before Biden leaves office. According to the Tax Foundation, Trump would try to eliminate the green energy subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These included tax credits for renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), blue hydrogen, green hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. In regards to the UN plastic treaty, it is unclear if the US would ratify it, regardless of Trump’s position. The treaty could include a cap on plastic production, and such a provision would sink the treaty’s chances of passing the US Senate. For renewable plastics, much of the support from the government involves research and development (R&D), so it did little to foster industrial scale production. WHY EVs AND RENEWABLES MATTERPolicies that promote the adoption of EVs would increase demand for materials used to build the vehicles and their batteries. Companies are developing polymers that can meet the heat and electrical challenges of EVs while reducing their weight. Heat management fluids made from base oils could help control the temperature of EV batteries and other components. If such EV policies reduce demand for combustion-based vehicles, then that could threaten margins for refineries. These produce benzene, toluene and xylenes (BTX) in catalytic reformers and propylene in fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs). Lower demand for combustion-based vehicles would also reduce the need for lubricating oil for engines, which would decrease demand for some groups of base oils. Polices that promote renewable power could help companies meet internal sustainability goals and increase demand for epoxy resins used in wind turbines and materials used in solar panels, such as ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) and polyvinyl butyral (PVB). Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows the White House. Image by Lucky-photographer.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s central bank monetary policy committee (Copom) voted unanimously late on Wednesday to hike the main interest rate benchmark, the Selic, by 50 basis points to 11.25%, to fend off rising inflation and a depreciating Brazilian real. Central bank urges government to put fiscal house in order H1 October inflation data reveals that upward trend continues Despite high borrowing costs, car sales at decade-high in October The 50 basis point increase is a double-down on the first 25 basis point increase in September which put an end to the monetary policy easing which started in August 2023 after a post-inflation crisis. Copom did not mention the market fallout which followed US Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, as global investors are wary about radical changes in US trade policy via higher import tariffs, among others. Instead, Copom focused on the healthy domestic economy and strong labor market which has put upward pressure on prices. After a small fall in August, the annual rate of inflation ticked higher in September – an upward trend that started May – to stand at 4.4%. Indicators for H1 October showed inflation ticking up further to 4.5%. The Banco Central do Brasil’s (BCB) own inflation expectations reflect this trend, with inflation expected to end this year at 4.6% before falling to 4.0% in 2025. The BCB’s mandate is to keep inflation at around 3%. “The scenario remains marked by resilient economic activity, labor market pressures, positive output gap, an increase in the inflation projections, and deanchored expectations, which requires a more contractionary monetary policy,” said Copom. “[Copom] judges that this decision [increase in the Selic] is consistent with the strategy for inflation convergence to a level around its target throughout the relevant horizon for monetary policy. Without compromising its fundamental objective of ensuring price stability, this decision also implies smoothing economic fluctuations and fostering full employment.” Petrochemical-intensive industrial companies have repeatedly said high interest rates have harmed sales as consumers think twice before purchasing durable goods on credit due to high borrowing costs. One vocal opponent to high rates is automotive trade group Anfavea, although its own figures this week showed sales riding at a high not seen since 2014, regardless of high borrowing costs. The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which make up more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle, driving demand for chemicals such polypropylene (PP), nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), among others. Meanwhile, Brazilian president Lula’s cabinet is looking to strengthen the country’s industrial sectors to fulfil his Workers Party (PT) electoral promise to create more and better paid industrial jobs. As a result, Lula and several of his  officials have repeatedly and publicly criticized the BCB for its interest rates policy. Meanwhile, central bank governor Roberto Campos Neto, appointed by the previous center-right Jair Bolsonaro administration, will end his term in December, when Lula appointed Gabriel Galipolo will succeed him. It is a move that has put some investors on alert due to his closeness to Lula, as he may prioritize the cabinet’s demands instead of the bank’s inflation target, its main mandate. But as global markets increasingly look at Brazil, Galipolo has fallen in line and also voted to increase rates in the last two Copom meetings. CABINET URGED TO END DEFICITThe Brazilian cabinet, presided over by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was expected to run a fiscal deficit this year in an attempt to expand public services without increasing taxes. Investors and analysts have been piling pressure on the government by punishing the Brazilian real (R), which has depreciated sharply in the past few months against the US dollar, making dollar-denominated imports into Brazil more expensive and ultimately filtering down in the form of higher inflation. At the start of 2024, the real was trading at $1:4.85. But the exchange rate stood at $1:5.69 on Wednesday, a depreciation of nearly 15%. On Wednesday, Copom joined the chorus of voices asking for stricter fiscal policy, arguing that to stop the real losing ground it is necessary a “credible fiscal policy committed to debt sustainability, with the presentation and execution of structural measures” in the public accounts. The Brazilian cabinet is reportedly working against the clock this week on those measures, and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad even cancelled an official trip to Europe this week to focus on this. “The perception of agents [in the market] about the fiscal scenario has significantly impacted asset prices and expectations, especially the risk premium and the exchange rate. [A credible fiscal policy] will contribute to the anchoring of inflation expectations and to the reduction in the risk premia of financial assets, therefore impacting monetary policy.” Analysts at Capital Economics on Wednesday also highlighted the diplomatic but very clear request from the central bank to the government – without stricter fiscal policies aiming to reduce the deficit, investors will continue making the central bank’s work on inflation harder as they bet against Brazilian assets, including its currency. “[The hike] has more to do with the domestic macro backdrop and shoring up monetary policy credibility than a response to the market fallout following Trump’s victory … [Copom’s] Concerns will have only been amplified by recent data and developments, with the accompanying statement reiterating that ‘economic activity and labor market continues to exhibit strength’,” the analysts said. “Alongside all of this, Copom members are probably also feeling compelled to tighten policy in order to shore up their credibility amid investor concerns about politicization of monetary policy. This strikes at an important point – the central bank is responding to Brazil-specific factors rather than the financial market fallout from Trump’s victory, especially given that the real is up by around 1% against the dollar today [6 November].” Capital Economics said Copom’s intention to raise rates further if necessary is likely to become a reality in coming months, expecting the Selic to rise further by 75bps more to reach 12% in early 2025. “That said, the risks are skewed to the upside, particularly if the government fails to soothe investors’ concerns about the fiscal position.” they concluded. Focus article by Jonathan Lopez 

LONDON (ICIS)–The Bank of England (BoE) on Thursday cut its key interest rate for the second time this year, instituting a 25 basis point fall as inflation continues below target. The bank cut its core interest rate to 4.75% in the wake of a steeper-than-expected decline in inflation in September, from 2.2% to 1.7%. Eurozone inflation also declined that month, dropping to 1.7%, but is expected to have increased last month, bouncing back to 2% according to preliminary Eurostat data, driven by higher food and services pricing and weaker energy cost declines. Both the BoE and the European Central Bank have inflation targets of levels close to but not exceeding 2%. The BoE move also follows the announcement of the UK’s autumn budget, which pledged higher borrowing, taxes and spending to generate funds for areas such as the country’s health service. The UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that the budget will drive inflation higher in the short term, to a quarterly peak of 2.7% in mid-2025.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s oxo-alcohols market will face a supply glut in the face of intensive new plant start-ups and tepid downstream demand. Net import volumes may plunge in the short term because of overseas plant turnarounds and rising domestic supply, whether this can sustain depends on overseas plant operations and import arbitrage opportunities. In this latest podcast, ICIS editors Claire Gao and Jady Ma share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. New oxo-alcohols capacities hit 1.3 million tonnes/year in July-Oct 2024 Oxo-alcohols supply to rise steadily in short term on few maintenance outages Oxo-alcohols net imports to decline on overseas plant turnarounds, rising domestic output