NEW YORK (ICIS)–On Wall Street, hope springs eternal at the beginning of a new year, and especially for sectors that have underperformed in the past year. But for chemicals, analysts are kicking off the year with cuts to their 2025 profit forecasts as a recovery in housing, automotive and consumer durables appears to be further off in the horizon. At least the bar is set low. In terms of stock market performance, in a year when the benchmark S&P 500 returned 25%, the S&P Materials Index was one of the worst sector performers, falling around 2%. Chemicals certainly played their part, with most companies underperforming the Materials Index. H.B. Fuller’s 2 January preannouncement of disappointing fiscal Q4 (ended November) results citing weaker-than-expected conditions in consumer product goods, packaging-related end markets and durable goods sparked a series of earnings estimate cuts across the chemicals group. JEFFERIES CITES WEAKNESS IN KEY END MARKETS Jefferies slashed 2025 and 2026 profit forecasts for Huntsman on a likely delay in the durable goods upcycle until 2026-2027. Jefferies analyst Laurence Alexander lowered estimates on Celanese again (after its initial shock preannouncement on Q4 results on 4 November), cutting his 2025 earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 8% to $8.70 and 2026 EPS by 3% to $10.45, along with reducing his Q4 2024 EPS estimate by 4% to $1.20. “We are lowering estimates again to reflect, primarily, choppy order patterns flagged by peers for packaging and durable goods this winter, as well as a more muted recovery cycle in construction and automotive end-markets in H2 2025-2026,” said Alexander in a research note. The analyst also cut his 2025 EPS estimate on Eastman by 11% to $8.60 and his 2026 forecast by 5% to $10.50. “We are trimming estimates to better reflect likely incremental headwinds from cyclical end-markets over the next few quarters, as well as modest adverse foreign currency [impact],” said Alexander. “The cyclical recovery we had baked into 2025 and 2026 appears likely to be both delayed at least a couple of quarters and less robust, at least initially,” he added, citing chemical peer comments on weakness in durables, electronics and transportation markets, coupled with choppy trends in construction. MIZUHO CUTS ESTIMATES, AVOIDS BASIC CHEMICALS Mizuho analyst John Roberts modestly cut 2025 earnings estimates by 1-6% on a wide range of chemicals, coatings and packaging companies, including Sherwin-Williams, PPG, Axalta, FMC, Corteva, Entegris, Element Solutions and Berry Global. “The March 2025 quarter appears set to begin as weak as the December 2024 quarter ended for most stocks. We reduce estimates and price targets for several stocks (no increases), and see no catalyst yet to change our relatively defensive positioning,” said Roberts in a research note. Downstream customers may have modestly rebuilt inventories early in in Q4 2024 in advance of potential new or increased tariffs, which could slow demand in 2025, the analyst pointed out. “Unfavorable currencies are the latest headwinds to earnings, as most of our companies derive 50%+ of sales ex-US,” he added. A stronger US dollar makes exports less competitive, and sales and earnings abroad are translated back into fewer dollars. Roberts characterizes Mizuho’s top picks in the sector as “relatively defensive”. They are specialties producer DuPont in advance of splitting into three companies, industrial gases producer Linde, and coatings company PPG. He is not recommending any asset-heavy, upstream basic chemical stocks, with the exception of Westlake. “Global operating rates are low for almost all basic chemicals since the consumer-spending switch to services. Destocking appears over, but with demand remaining near trough, expansions in recent years in China and the US have left markets oversupplied,” said Roberts. “China continues to expand to improve self-sufficiency, and shift refinery output to chemicals as gasoline demand is expected to peak early from China’s accelerated adoption of EVs,” he added. While new China capacity additions slowed in 2024, a consequence of fewer projects starting construction early in the pandemic, they are poised to ramp back up in 2025-2027, he pointed out. UBS SEES MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR EUROPE CHEMICALS For European chemical companies, UBS Europe chemicals analyst Geoff Haire sees more uncertainty in 2025 versus 2024. “We expect the primary focus for 2025 in the chemicals sector will once again be on the prospects for volume recovery, but investors will also need to focus on geopolitics (US, Germany and France) and the outcome of several conflicts around the world,” said Haire in a research note. “With global GDP growth expected to be slower in 2025 and 2026 versus 2024, particularly in the US and China, we see limited prospect of a significant year on year volume recovery in 2025,” he added. With resulting continued pressure on prices and margins, companies will likely react with further cost savings initiatives or portfolio reshaping, the analyst pointed out. Even with the challenging backdrop, UBS sees 2025 gains in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to the tune of around 8% for European diversified chemical companies, and 9% for specialties. Insight article by Joseph Chang Thumbnail shows stock prices. Image by BIANCA DE MARCHI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Global container shipping major Mediterranean Shipping Co (MSC) will increase its emergency operation surcharge (EOS) by $1,000/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) effective 27 January on the North Europe to the US, Puerto Rico, and the Bahamas route. In a customer advisory on 8 January, the company said it is taking the action considering significant changes in the alliances network. “We foresee general operational disruption during the first months of next year, the company said. Shipping alliances are agreements between carriers to collaborate globally on specific trade routes. Several major carriers are restructuring alliances in 2025, the most significant shift in alliances since 2017, according to analysts at freight forwarder Flexport. The previous EOS surcharge was $1,000/FEU, bringing the new surcharge to $2,000/FEO. The company will increase the EOS surcharge by $800/TEU (20-foot equivalent unit), bringing it to $1,300/TEU. GUIDANCE AHEAD OF POSSIBLE PORT STRIKE The company also offered operational guidance to US customers ahead of the possible ILA strike at US Gulf and East Coast ports should the work stoppage occur. For export booking from affected ports, the company will continue to accept bookings for dry cargo based on vessel availability and will reserve the right to not accept new refrigerated bookings via these ports where there is a risk to the refrigeration services due to the port strike for vessels departing on or after 16 January. MSC is urging customers to move equipment before 16 January as many terminals will likely offering extended gate hours. On demurrage and detention (port storage and container use inside the terminal), the company will follow terminal policy and only pass through at cost any demurrage charges imposed by terminals during the strike. MSC will stop the clock on detention charges during the strike and once the strike has ended will resume billing following its tariffs. MSC will align its policy to that of the rail ramp operators, the company said. If, the rail ramp operators cease to accept containers at origin ramps for US East and Gulf Coast bound ports, MSC will do the same. For North America import cargoes via US East and Gulf Coast ports, MSC will adjust bookings – including rolls to other vessels or cancellations – as needed. For new bookings, MSC will follow the same plan as for imports. The company will refuse any liability arising from the strike due to reefer containers left uncollected at terminals. MSC urges customers to pick up their import cargo before 16 January. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), which are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia ethylene editor Josh Quah and analyst Aliena Huang talk about the Asia outlook for ethylene arbitrage cargoes for 2025 with markets editor Damini Dabholkar. Ethylene loadings from US in December continue to favor southeast Asia destinations More intra-Asia tradeflows between northeast and southeast Asia expected for H1 2025 Increasing ethane competitivity and demand may curtail US ethylene exports to Asia

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia has imposed provisional antidumping duties (ADDs) on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from China and Indonesia, effective 7 January. The duties range from 6.33% to 37.44% “to prevent further injury to the domestic industry”, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) said. Chinese exporters affected include Jiangsu Hailun Petrochemical, Far Eastern Industries (Shanghai), and Jiangsu Xingye Plastic, with duties set at between 6.33% to 11.74%. All PET imports from Indonesia, meanwhile, will be levied a higher ADD rate of 37.44%. Country Exporter Rates China Far Eastern Industries (Shanghai) 6.33% Jiangsu Hailun Petrochemical Co 11.74% Jiangsu Xingye Plastic Co 11.74% Jiangyin Xingtai New Material Co 11.74% Others 11.74% Indonesia All producers or exporters 37.44% The duties are not likely to drastically affect China’s PET exports as Malaysia is not their major market, an industry source said. These duties will last “not more than 120 days” or four months, and a final determination will be made no later than 6 May, the MITI added. Malaysia’s investigations into PET imports from China and Indonesia were initiated on 9 August 2024. Additional reporting by Judith Wang Thumbnail image: PET goes into textitles. At a textile enterprise in Binzhou, China, on 24 September 2024. (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia has imposed provisional antidumping duties (ADDs) on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) imports from China and Indonesia, effective 7 January 2025. The duties range from 6.33% to 37.44% “to prevent further injury to the domestic industry”, Malaysia’s Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry (MITI) said. These duties will last “not more than 120 days” or four months, and a final determination will be made no later than 6 May, the MITI added. Investigations into PET imports from China and Indonesia were initiated on 9 August 2024.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–RPM International warned on Tuesday that the winter weather will drag down its earnings during the current quarter, the CEO of the US-based coatings, sealants and adhesives producer said on Tuesday. A lot of RPM’s products are used in construction, so cold weather delays these projects. Moreover, the company serves as a bellwether for chemicals used to make coatings, adhesives, sealants and other building materials. The recent cold spell marks the return to normal winter weather after two previous seasons of above normal temperatures, said Frank Sullivan, CEO. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. “We are facing a real winter compared to mild conditions in the prior year,” he said. “This is putting pressure on some of our businesses, particularly in the consumer segment.” The return of winter interrupted the return to volume growth for RPM’s segments, Sullivan said. When temperatures rise in the spring, he expects strong growth will return to those segments. RPM MAINTAINS SALES GUIDANCE FOR FISCAL YEARDespite the delays caused by colder temperatures, RPM maintained its sales guidance for its fiscal year, which runs through July. Sales should rise by the low single digits. Adjusted earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) should rise 6-10%. That compares with an earlier guidance of growth in the mid-single digits to the low double digits. RPM shares were up by more than 2% in midday trading. COLD WEATHER MAY DELAY OTHER BUILDING MATERIALSCold weather could delay purchases for other building materials such as paints, coatings, adhesives and sealants as well as pipes and siding made of polyvinyl chloride (PVC). Paints and coatings are important end markets for many petrochemicals and resins. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used as a white pigment and to make paints opaque. Solvents used in paints and coatings include ethyl acetate (etac), butyl acetate (butac) and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK). Polyurethane coatings are made with polyols and isocyanates such as methyl diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI). Acrylic based coatings are made with methyl methacrylate (MMA), and epoxy coatings are made with epoxy resins. Other chemicals used in paints and coatings include isopropanol (IPA) and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). NO CHEM DISRUPTIONS ON US GULFSo far, there have been no reports of cold weather causing disruptions to chemical plants. Temperatures in Houston had briefly fell to freezing during the night, but the region has yet to suffer from prolonged low temperatures that have typically led to plant shutdowns or power outages. Also, many producers made their plants more resilient to cold weather following winter storm Uri in 2021. EARLIER FORECASTS CALLED FOR WARM WINTER PUNCTUATED WITH COLD SPELLSMeteorologists had forecast that the upcoming winter season will be warmer than normal, with spells of especially frigid weather. Such forecasts held true in the US Gulf Coast during the past two winter seasons. Each winter had a brief spell of freezing temperatures that caused some chemical plants to shut down. Focus article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail shows construction. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Additional reporting by Aura Sabadus LONDON (ICIS) — On 1 January 2025, Russian gas transit flows via Ukraine stopped amid the expiry of a five-year agreement between the two countries which have been in conflict since February 2022. The transit stop has been the base case view of the majority of market participants and it was priced in well before 1 January 2025. Therefore it had little impact on European gas and power prices in recent sessions. Despite the expectation that flows would cease to transit Ukraine, the end of the agreement resulted in an immediate supply drop to the Czech Republic and Austria. However, the scrapping of the German storage levy from 1 January 2025 incentivized flows from Germany to the region, partly offsetting the supply drop via Ukraine. The below infographic shows the shift in flows to the region after the transit halt on 1 January, drawing a comparison between flows on 31 December 2024 and on 3 January 2025 across the key interconnection points. In particular, the halt to the Russian gas transit through Ukraine halted flows to Slovakia and Moldova, and therefore from Slovakia to the rest of the region. Conversely, German gas exports to Czech Republic and to Austria increased to offset the drop in Russian gas flows reaching the region via Ukraine. Romanian exports also increased to support Moldova’s gas supply, as flows from Ukraine ceased. Nevertheless, ICIS data also indicates that since 2022 a strong LNG supply intake has rapidly replaced the drop in Russian gas flows to Europe, with flows via Sudzha remaining among the latest available Russian volumes via pipeline reaching Europe until 31 December 2024. Currently the only remaining source of Russian gas supply via pipeline is the TurkStream2 gas corridor, transiting via Turkey and delivering gas to Europe through the Bulgarian and Serbian infrastructure up to Hungary. Europe still receives Russian gas in the form of LNG supplies. ICIS ANALYSTS VIEWS “We expect gas storage withdrawals to be strong in the first quarter of 2025 and we will have a close look at them. ICIS Gas Foresight expects Austrian storage to deplete from current 80% levels towards 63% in April 2025 in the new base case absent Ukrainian gas transit” ICIS gas analyst Andreas Schroeder said. ICIS data showed that EU gas storages were 66% full as of 6 January. “LNG imports to Europe should increase again after a relatively weak 2024. Austrian OMV has secured capacity at LNG terminals to provide Austria with gas via Germany” Schroeder added. Security of supply in Europe is guaranteed and ICIS Gas Foresight estimates that LNG imports into the eleven EU countries considered in the model (Austria, Belgium, Czechia, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia and Spain) plus Great Britain will increase year on year by 232TWh (15 million tonnes of LNG or 21bcm) in 2025. In January, LNG imports are set to increase 7% year on year. ICIS Gas Foresight forecasts the fullness level for the EU11+GB region to fall by 12 percentage points month-on-month by the end of January. On European power markets, increases in the gas price will likely be reflected in increased power prices, particularly in those countries where gas-fired generation is still a large component of the power supply mix. “For the February ‘25 contract across pretty much all European power markets we saw prices higher on 21 November 2024 than they were on 2 January 2025. The primary reason for this is that coal prices have fallen since that point” ICIS power analyst Matthew Jones said. “Electricity flows from Slovakia to Ukraine continued on 2 January, which is relevant as Slovakia’s PM Fico had threated to stop flowing power to Ukraine in the event of no new gas deal. Slovakia tends to export to Ukraine, so stopping those flows would have been bearish for Slovakian power prices” Jones added.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Mitsubishi Chemical Corp (MCC) said on Tuesday it has decided not to proceed with its planned 350,000 tonne/year methyl methacrylate (MMA) project at Geismar, Louisiana. The company failed in negotiations with customers “to obtain long-term commitments on transactions,” it said. MCC expects to be able to meet immediate demand with existing MMA monomer manufacturing facilities in Tennessee and elsewhere, it said. “Global demand for MMA monomer exceeds three million tonnes annually, and stable market growth is expected to continue,” it added. The Geismar project, announced in December 2020, would have used ethylene derived from US shale gas. MCC had acquired a construction site at Geismar and was working on the project’s engineering design and on obtaining permits and approvals. The company expects to record a loss of about Japanese yen (Y) 20 billion (US$127 million) in connection with the decision not to proceed with the project, it said. Meanwhile, MCC would continue to optimize its global production system by establishing new business locations and consolidating existing ones to boost the competitiveness of its MMA business, it said. (US$1=Y158) MMA is used in the manufacture of polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), acrylic sheets, surface coatings, emulsion polymers and adhesives. Photo by Rudi Sebastian/imageBROKER/REX/Shutterstock

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. One of the arguments still doing the rounds out there is that this year will mark the turning point as global petrochemicals operating rates, margins and spreads recover. As they say, good luck with that idea. As today’s blog discusses in detail: In 2024 over 2023, China’s ethylene capacity exceeding local demand is estimated to have fallen by 1.6m tonnes. But in 2025 compared with 2024, it is forecast to increase by 6.3m tonnes to an all-time high of 11.5m tonnes. This would represent a year-on-year increase of 121%. Actual capacity is due to increase by 9m tonnes in 2025 over 2024, the biggest annual increase on record. Propylene oversupply is far worse reflecting the several routes to make propylene other than just the steam cracker – the only major route to produce ethylene. In 2024 over 2023, propylene capacity exceeding demand was at 2.7m tonnes. This year compared with 2024 oversupply is expected to reach 7.4m tonnes. Capacity exceeding demand is forecast to total 20.3m tonnes in 2025, 179% higher than in 2024. Annual capacity is due to increase by 9.6m tonnes in 2025 or 2024, which would again by the biggest annual increase on record. China’s global shares of capacity exceeding demand are also forecast to jump in 2025 as it overtakes all the other regions. One saving grace might be that increased trade protectionism prevents China from exporting its surplus ethylene and propylene molecules, either directly as derivatives or indirectly as packaging for or components of finished goods. This might create more regional markets and force China to delay start-ups. But it seems more likely to me that there will just be a shuffling of the pack as more Chinese manufacturing moves offshore to bypass tariffs. You might think that the other “get out of jail for free” card will be a rebound in Chinese domestic demand. Again, good luck with that idea because of the end of the real estate bubble and China’s demographics crisis. So, here is another prediction for 2025: Global petrochemicals operating rates, spreads and margins will decline versus last year because for the scale of China’s capacity additions and the country’s continued ability to export its excess molecules, either directly or indirectly. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.