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Ammonia11-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Entering day two of
post-hurricane activities and as the community
of Tampa and surrounding cities attempt to
clean up and dry out, the fertilizer industry
is still assessing damage with flooding
appearing to have had the biggest impact on
production sites.
Striking as a Category 3 hurricane late 9
October the storm brought intense and
life-threatening conditions to a section of
Florida that had already faced such a threat
less than two weeks before. It particularly
impacted the Tamp, Florida area, which is a key
hub of the US fertilizer industry.
Market sources, based in this region, said most
of the focus on Friday was cleaning up and
trying to determine how much damaged had been
caused.
The extent of impacts to fertilizer facilities
were not fully clear but producer Mosaic did
say it had some issues because of the storm but
that once it had the full updates about
Hurricane Milton’s impact on their facilities
it would post on their website.
As was the fear of environmentalists the
gypstacks that are a fixture of phosphate
production experienced problems with the water
supporting the storage at the Mosaic Riverview
facility having likely entered the Tampa Bay
because of the extreme rainfall.
“Back-to-back historic storms crossed our
operational areas. Our sites withstood the
conditions with few challenges. Our Riverview
site, which has operated on Tampa Bay for the
last century, received nearly 15 inches of rain
during Hurricane Milton less than two weeks
after Hurricane Helene,” said Mosaic.
“A water collection system supporting our
closed gypstack became overwhelmed, pushing
excess water out a manhole on our property. At
this time, we believe some of that impacted
stormwater made its way to an outfall which
discharges into Tampa Bay.”
Mosaic said the issue was addressed on 10
October and is not continuing but added that
the volume may have been greater than the
17,500-gallon reporting standard.
“We expect water quality impacts, if any, to be
modest. We’ve been in constant communication
with regulators who are onsite today,” Mosaic
said.
Florida environmental authorities have not made
any statement but ahead of the storm had said
they were preparing and would have all
resources available to oversee the regulated
facilities and operations.
Ammonia11-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Corn production is forecasted
to increase by 17 million bushels while soybean
output is expected to decline by 4 million
bushels, according to the October World
Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE)
report from the US Department of Agriculture
(USDA).
In the monthly update the agency said the
current outlook for corn is for smaller
supplies, larger exports and reduced ending
stocks.
Projected beginning stocks for 2024-2025 are
now 52 million bushels lower based on the Grain
Stocks report.
Corn production is now being forecasted at 15.2
billion bushels, up 17 million bushels from
last month on a 0.2-bushel increase in yield to
stand at 183.8 bushels/acre.
Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 82.7
million acres.
Total use is raised slightly to 15.0 billion
bushels reflecting greater exports, and with
supply falling and use rising, the ending
stocks have been reduced by 58 million bushels
to 2 billion bushels.
The October WASDE said the season-average corn
price received by producers is unchanged at
$4.10/bushel.
For soybeans, the USDA is showing that
production is now being forecasted at 4.6
billion bushels, which is down 4 million
bushels and is based on expectations of lower
yields.
Harvested area is unchanged at 86.3 million
acres.
The monthly update reveal that soybean yield is
now projected at 53.1 bushels/acre, down 0.1
bushels from the September update.
As lower production is being partly offset by
slightly higher beginning stocks the USDA said
supplies are lowered by 2 million bushels to
stand at 4.9 billion bushels.
With a slightly lower residual and no change to
exports and crush, ending stocks are unchanged
from last month at 550 million bushels.
The season-average soybean price is unchanged
at $10.80/bushel.
The next WASDE report will be released on 8
November.
Speciality Chemicals11-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers
from east Asia and China to the US continued to
fall after a lengthy strike was averted at US
Gulf and East Coast ports and as peak season
volumes have largely been pulled forward.
The International Longshoremen’s Association
(ILA) strike lasted just
three days, and market analysts expect backlogs
created by the work stoppage to be cleared up
in two to three weeks, or even less at the Port
of New York/New Jersey.
Some ports extended gate hours
to allow more time for containers to be
delivered or picked up.
Nathan Strang, the US Southwest director of
ocean freight for Flexport, said the company is
seeing relatively fluid terminal operations and
railroad operations.
Strang said all detentions and demurrage rules
from the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC)
remain in effect but noted that time frames for
detention and demurrage restarted on 7 October
after the strike ended.
CONTAINER RATES FALL
Global average rates for shipping containers
continued to fall, according to multiple
analysts.
Supply chain advisors Drewry has its World
Container Index (WCI) at $3,349/FEU (40-foot
equivalent unit), which is down by 4% and shown
in the following chart.
Drewry said Shanghai to Los Angeles container
rates fell by 5%, and Shanghai to New York
rates fell by 3%, as shown in the following
chart.
Following the tentative deal between the ILA
and the ports, Drewry expects rates ex-China to
continue to decrease marginally in the coming
weeks.
Online freight shipping marketplace and
platform provider Freightos said rates fell by
a larger degree, but its rates had been higher.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos,
said carriers are also planning to reduce
deployed capacity on the transatlantic trade
lane later in the month in the hope of
preventing rates from falling back to the
$1,600-1,800/FEU level they had maintained for
much of the year.
“With the strike over and peak season demand
largely behind us from a significant pull
forward of volumes in the last couple months,
transpacific container rates should continue to
ease on the seasonal lull in volumes between
peak season and Lunar New Year,” Levine said.
Container ships and costs for shipping
containers are relevant to the chemical
industry because while most chemicals are
liquids and are shipped in tankers, container
ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene
(PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in
pellets.
They also transport liquid chemicals in
isotanks.
LIQUID TANKER RATES
UNCHANGED
US chemical tanker freight rates held steady
again this week for most trade lanes, even
though vessel demand is growing for some
routes.
Most rates from the major chemical hubs remain
sideways as a good portion of the market were
attending the European Petrochemical
Association (EPCA) conference in Berlin.
The USG to Asia lane was also quiet following
holidays.
Although it is likely that increased exports
ex–USG will be seen going into Europe and Asia,
primarily as clean petroleum products (CPP)
tonnage continues to focus on alternative
cargoes in the petrochemical space, thereby
adding to spot availability, which is already
well supplied.
On the transatlantic front, the eastbound leg
is expected to warm up with cargoes being
quoted including styrene to ARA from several US
Gulf ports.
With additional reporting by Kevin
Callahan
Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on
chemicals and energy topic
page
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Speciality Chemicals11-Oct-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Some ports in Florida have
resumed operations while millions in the US
state remain without power after Hurricane
Milton made landfall earlier in the week, south
of the fertilizer hub of Tampa.
A few ports in Florida have maintained Port
Condition Zulu, under which they are closed to
inbound and outbound vessels.
Others have reopened and have set Port
Condition IV, which is
a hurricane seasonal alert to which ports
return after a storm.
The following table summarizes the port
conditions in Florida.
Port
Status
Condition
Port of Pensacola
Open
Normal
Port Panama City
Open
Draft restrictions
Port St Joe
Open
Normal
Port Tampa Bay
Closed
Zulu
SeaPort Manatee
Closed
Zulu
PortMiami
Open
IV
Port Everglades
Open
IV
Port of Palm Beach
Open
IV
Fort Pierce
Open with Restrictions
IV with restrictions
Port Canaveral
Open
IV
Jaxport
Open
IV
Port of Fernandina
Closed
Zulu
Source: US Coast Guard
OUTAGESFlorida has more
than 2.2 million reported outages, according to
the website poweroutage.us. That is down by
more than 1 million versus
the immediate aftermath of the hurricane.
Prolonged outages can disrupt economic activity
and slow down demand for plastics and
chemicals.
CSX WARNS OF RAIL
DELAYSThe railroad company CSX
warned of delays while it works to clear
tracks, install generators and conduct repairs.
All routes north of Jacksonville, Florida are
open with no anticipated issues, it said. The
area south, from Callahan to the north end of
Anthony, is also clear.
Work continues in central Florida, and CSX is
addressing washouts on the Carter and Vitis
subdivisions.
The CFR line should be open later Friday night,
providing a potential route into Winter Haven.
CSX is making contingency plans for possible
issues with a gas pipe washout near the Miami
area.
IMPACT ON FERTILIZERS, PHOSPHATES,
CHEMSFor chemicals, there is
some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and
unsaturated polyester resin (UPR) production in
Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida.
Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola,
Florida, which has plants that make nylon and
thermoset resins.
Tampa is an
important hub for the US fertilizer
industry, hosting corporate offices,
trading, product storage, shipping and other
logistical operations.
Fertilizer producer Mosaic has its headquarters
in Tampa. The company has not issued any
statements regarding its corporate operations.
A source at the fertilizer company Yara said it
was shutting down its Tampa offices to comply
with the evacuation orders.
Near Tampa is Florida’s
phosphate mining operations in Bone
Valley, which covers parts of Hardee,
Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties.
In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of
which nine are active, according
to the
Florida Department of Environmental
Protection.
Canadian fertilizer producer Nutrien has yet to
restart its White Springs phosphate operations
following Helene, an earlier hurricane that
made landfall farther north in Florida’s Big
Bend region.
On 30 September, Mosaic said its Riverview
operations were off line following water
intrusion from a storm surge caused by
Hurricane Helene.
Thumbnail Photo: Hurricane Milton. (By
Cira/Noaa/Planet Pix via ZUMA Press
Wire/Shutterstock)
Ethylene11-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–The risks for Germany’s chemical
industry keep rising, economists said during a
webinar hosted by chemical producers’ trade
group VCI, and noted:
Weak demand, domestically and abroad
Investments stall
Geopolitical uncertainty
Contrary to hopes at the start of the year,
Europe’s largest economy is likely to shrink
for a second straight year in 2024, the
government said this week in revising its
previous 0.3% GDP growth projection to a 0.2%
decline.
The economy shrank 0.3% in 2023 and has not
been able to generate strong growth since 2018.
Weak or negative GDP trends translate into
lower demand for chemicals.
So far this year, demand for chemicals from
nearly all domestic key customer industries,
except food and paper, has been weak, said VCI
economist Christiane Kellermann.
Year-on-year % changes in domestic
chemical sales, by major customer markets,
January-August 2024:
Construction: -3.9%
Plastics: -4.5%
Metal products: -7.4%
Autos: -5.8%
Food: +1.5%
Glass, ceramics: -7.8%
Paper: +0.9%
Printing products: -7.3%
Furniture: -7.3%
Machinery: -8.3%
Electrical equipment: -16.1%
Source: VCI
Many of the chemical industry’s customers in
manufacturing are curbing their production, and
in the important construction end market there
is no noticeable recovery.
Meanwhile, export sales of German chemicals
were weak in most regions, with the exception
of Asia, Kellermann said.
Year-on-year % changes in chemical
exports, by region, January-July:
EU: -2.5%
Non-EU Europe: -1.1%
Asia: +1.8%
North America: -3.6%
Latin America: -3.4%
Source: VCI
INVESTMENTSThe low
demand translates into low production rates and
low capacity utilization.
In fact, over the past two-and-half years
chemical producers have been running plants at
utilization levels that were below
profitability thresholds, Kellermann said.
As companies suffer low demand in Germany, with
little prospect of improvement, and cannot run
existing plants and equipment at profitable
levels, it does not make sense for them to
invest in new plants, she said.
In a recent VCI survey, 74% of chemical
companies said they were unlikely to invest in
expanding production in Germany, she noted.
Only 15% said they were likely to invest in
expanding production while 9% were undecided,
according to the survey.
Companies cited the country’s bureaucracy and
long project permitting processes, high energy
and labor costs, and high and complicated
corporate taxes as key obstacles to investing
in Germany.
Only 13% said that a lack of trained workers
deterred them from investing in the country.
With little or no new investment, “import
pressures” rise and the chemical industry’s
export capabilities will decline in coming
years, she said.
Germany’s chemical industry loses in
international competitiveness, in particular in
energy-intensive basic chemicals, she added.
GEOPOLITICAL RISKS
Michael Gromling, an economist from the German
Economic Institute in Cologne, who was also
presenting at the VCI webinar, estimated that
in order to return to a meaningful growth path
and achieve a recovery (“Aufschwung”),
Germany needed to generate annual average GDP
growth of 2.5% from 2025 through 2030.
This, however, was “not realistic”, given the
weakness across all industries and the
geopolitical and structural challenges
companies face, he said.
The country’s industries were export-dependent
and therefore sensitive to geopolitical
tensions, trade conflicts and protectionism, he
said.
Geopolitical tensions were holding back
investment decisions, and without a detente it
would be very difficult for Germany to achieve
its Aufschwung, he said.
An end to the Ukraine war and peace in the
Middle East would be a “game changer”, creating
an opportunity for reviving the global
investment cycle, he added.
However, rather than relaxing, tensions could
further sharpen after the 5 November US
presidential election, he said.
Gromling did not say which candidate – current
Vice President Kamala Harris or former
President Donald Trump – he sees as the greater
risk.
For the time being, VCI maintains its 2024
growth forecast for the country’s
chemical-pharmaceutical production unchanged at
3.5% (excluding pharma: +5.0%). If realized,
the increase would only partially offset last
year’s 7.9% production decline (excluding
pharma: -10.4%).
However, VCI may cut its 2024 sales forecast of
1.5% as exports were trending weaker than
expected, Kellermann indicated.
Focus article by Stefan
Baumgarten
Thumbnail image source: VCI
Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene11-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Markets editor Stephanie Wix and
reporter Meeta Ramnani join senior editor
manager Vicky Ellis to pick out key themes
ahead of the 29th Fakuma plastics processing
trade fair in Germany, in this latest ICIS
podcast.
They discuss the clash of pessimism and
optimism for acrylonitrile butadiene
styrene (ABS), the changing European landscape
for polycarbonate (PC) given ADNOC’s recent
offer
for Covestro, and pressure from cheap
imports for PE
and PP and engineering plastics polyacetal
(POM)
and polybutylene terephthalate (PBT).
Fakuma runs from 15-19 October.
Butadiene11-Oct-2024
BARCELONA (ICIS)–German specialty group Evonik
plans to restructure two of its business units,
putting non-core assets up for sale, closure or
partnerships.
The Coating & Adhesive Resins and Health
Care businesses will be extensively
reorganized, with operations generating sales
of €350 million slated for strategic changes,
the company said on Friday.
In Health Care, production of keto acids for
pharmaceutical applications in Hanau, Germany,
is to be discontinued at the end of 2025, with
the loss of around 260 jobs. For the sites in
Ham (France) and Wuming (China) active in the
same business, partnerships or divestments are
being evaluated. The amino and keto acids
business generates sales of around €100
million.
In future, the Health Care business line will
focus on what Evonik considers to be its growth
areas: lipids for mRNA and gene therapies, drug
delivery systems, and cell culture ingredients.
Caspar Gammelin, head of the Nutrition &
Care division, said: “Our amino and keto acids
businesses in Ham and Wuming are strong and
offer great potential. With investments in
these sites, these businesses could reach their
full potential and flourish. We are therefore
examining options such as partnerships or
divestments that would allow the businesses to
prosper.”
COATINGS RESTRUCTURE
Evonik’s Coating & Adhesive Resins business
line will focus on two core areas for growth:
liquid polybutadienes as additives for
adhesives and sealants or tires, and specialty
acrylics for medical technology and the
packaging industry.
The business line’s existing polyolefins
business, with sales of around €100 million,
will be transferred to the C4 chain business at
Evonik. In the future, the business will be
sold as part of the C4 chain business.
The €150 million turnover polyester business
for coating and adhesive applications is to be
sold. It has around 330 employees in Germany
and China. The largest site, with around 250
employees, is in Witten (Germany). A smaller
plant in Shanghai has around 30 employees.
Lauren Kjeldsen, head of the responsible
division Smart Materials, said: “To be
successfully competing in the long term
globally and to generate the necessary margins,
investments are needed – and other companies
for which polyester is a core business can
realize these better than we can.”
Evonik, like many of its peers in the European
chemical sector, is under intense pressure from
mainly China-driven global overcapacity, with
companies under pressure to take radical action
to focus on core assets and close or sell other
operations.
As well as the ramp-up in global production
capacity, the region is being battered by a
global slump in demand and a high cost base,
which has led to collapsing margins and a wave
of capacity closures across Europe.
Thumbnail photo: Evonik’s Essen, Germany,
campus. Source: Evonik
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate11-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
UK colourless flake range widens in October
Eastern Europe bale, flake price views
divided
Frustration around single-use plastics
directive (SUPD) uncertainty
Food-grade pellet demand weak ahead of
January SUPD target
Polyester11-Oct-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Imagine you sold a product with
no control over how much of it was produced at
any one time; that you had to sell it within
weeks of it being produced regardless of what
the demand for it was like; and that the demand
was constantly changing.
For most waste managers, no imagination is
required, this is their daily reality. And it’s
one of the biggest drivers of volatility
throughout the recycling chain globally.
Waste originates from both the general public
and industry, and as a result, the composition
and quantity of waste generated at any one time
varies continuously depending on consumer
behaviour and industrial production trends.
Waste managers typically hold contracts for
waste collection with municipalities. They
cannot turn material away. Because of
variations in consumer and industrial
production trends, different countries can have
vastly different supply at any one time.
The quality of that input waste (how
contaminated it is, the tensile strength etc.)
depends on a variety of factors including how
it’s been treated and stored before its entered
the chain, the type of additives it contains,
what other materials it has come into contact
with (because contact with substances such as
polyvinyl chloride (PVC) causes contamination),
level of discolouration, gel content, and
odour.
Coupled with this, the more times a polymer has
been recycled, the lower its tensile strength,
and typically end-use suitability becomes
increasingly limited. How many cycles it takes
before the waste material becomes unusable
varies from polymer-to-polymer, process to
process, and level of other degradation.
The longer you store waste (this is typically,
but not exclusively, in the form of bales)
without reprocessing it – or selling it on for
reprocessing – the more it degrades.
This can be due to a number of things,
including the contaminants it contains,
thermolytic degradation (from heat – typically
the sun), and hydrolytic degradation (from
water – common in the case of polyethylene
terephthalate (PET).
Meanwhile, new (and perhaps more valuable)
strains of waste are constantly entering the
chain, and warehouse space is limited.
If the waste quality is too low, then waste
managers either need to dispose of the
material, sell it to the burn-for-energy
sector, or use it captively for energy
creation. Burn-for-energy bales typically sell
at negative values, whereby sellers pay for the
removal of waste based on cost saving against
alternative disposal methods.
As a result, most waste managers look to
offload bales within a timeframe of around 4-6
weeks (although this varies from market to
market).
Reprocessed recycled material, meanwhile,
serves a huge variety of end-use markets. Major
offtake markets include, but aren’t limited to,
packaging, construction, automotive, outdoor
furniture, refuse bags, strapping, and
horticulture.
Demand between the end-uses also varies
dramatically, and players in each market
purchase for differing reasons.
Some markets, such as packaging, are heavily
driven by brand sustainability targets and
regulation, other markets, such as
construction, mostly purchase on cost saving
against virgin.
This has huge impacts on willingness to pay,
Intensifying legislative and consumer pressure
on sustainability in packaging over the past
few years has seen a significant pricing gap
develop between display packaging suitable, and
non-display packaging suitable grades across
most global recycled polymer markets.
There is currently, for example, a spread of up
to €1,500/tonne between the highest priced
grade of Europe recycled polypropylene (R-PP)
pellet (which is a post-consumer natural grade
predominantly used in domestic goods and
cosmetic applications), and the lowest priced
grade (which is black injection-moulded
pellets, which typically serves non-packaging
applications).
Ideally (from their point of view) waste
managers and recyclers would primarily serve
applications driven by sustainability targets
where premiums are typically highest.
Nevertheless, each downstream market has
differing technical requirements – with
display packaging and automotive typically
having the strictest technical requirements and
construction, bin bags and outdoor furniture
the lowest. This means that there is typically
a higher volume of material sold into
non-packaging applications.
While sorting allows waste managers to extract
the valuable fractions and, to an extent,
control contaminants etc. it doesn’t control
the input waste mix. So the type of material
suitable to serve each application is changing
constantly. There is also a direct correlation
between feedstock waste quality and reprocessed
output quality for both mechanical and chemical
recycling.
This creates a continuous supply/demand
mismatch that is often underappreciated by
players newly entering the market.
This mismatch coupled with the need to offload
material relatively quickly is the reason, for
example, 90% mixed polyolefin bale prices have
traded as high as €600/tonne ex-works NWE
(northwest Europe) and as low as €0/tonne
ex-works NWE since July 2022.
Because waste
fractions typically produce a variety of
different flake and pellet grades depending on
what is extractable from individual bales –
especially for recycled polyolefins – they
typically react to system wide demand in each
locality.
Individual flake and pellet prices, though,
often react to demand from specific end-use
markets. This can result in periods where waste
bale prices are high but prices for some flake
and pellet grades those bales serve are low,
resulting in squeezed margins.
This is especially true for grades that are
purchased for cost-saving reasons, meaning that
they need to aggressively compete with virgin
and off-spec material.
The reverse also regularly occurs, whereby bale
prices can be low because demand in key
end-uses such as construction is weak and
general availability of waste is high, but
volumes extracted for packaging suitable grades
are limited and demand from that particular
sector is firm.
It is also increasingly common for material
with broadly identical specifications to trade
at different price levels depending on which
sector it is being sold into.
Further distortions in the chain are created
because reprocessed material such as flakes and
pellets can be stored for long-periods of time,
and flake and pellet producers are not forced
to offload material as quickly as waste
managers.
This leads to fragmented and localised
downstream markets where spreads against
feedstock costs and profitability are
constantly shifting.
Volatile feedstock costs also results in
challenges for investment. This is particularly
true for emerging technologies such as chemical
recycling and bio-based plastics.
Thatis because new producers seeking private
investment are often required to project future
costs (typically for a period of at least 5
years), with waste feedstock typically their
largest variable cost. The unpredictability of
waste values make this a herculean task.
When players first explore circular plastic
markets, they are often surprised by the
variability and fragmentation of prices through
the chain. In the majority of cases the direct
cause can be traced back to the feedstock waste
markets.
ICIS assesses more than 100 grades
throughout the recycled plastic value chain
globally – from waste bales through to pellets.
This includes recycled polyethylene (R-PE),
recycled PET (R-PET), R-PP, mixed plastic waste
and pyrolysis oil. On 1 October ICIS launched a
recycled polyolefins agglomerate price range as
part of the Mixed Plastic Waste and Pyrolysis
Oil (Europe) pricing service. For more
information on ICIS’ recycled plastic products,
please contact the ICIS recycling team at
recycling@icis.com
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