LONDON (ICIS)–Global crude supply growth is likely to outstrip demand by over a million barrels/day in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, with the “marked” slowdown in China consumption the main drag on consumption this year. Oil demand is expected to tick up modestly year on year in 2025 to just under a million barrels/day, as compared with current expectations of 920,000 barrels/day this year. Two years of sub-million-barrel daily demand growth “reflects below-par global economic conditions with the post-pandemic release of pent-up demand now complete”, the agency said in its latest monthly oil market report. A substantial headwind for stronger market consumption is China, where demand contracted for the sixth consecutive month in September, bringing third-quarter averages 270,000 barrels/day below the same period in 2023. The IEA projects global supply growth of 1.5 million barrels/day from non-OPEC+ countries next year, driven by the US, Canada, Guyana and Argentina. Brazil is also expected to return as a force in the market after a year of unplanned outages and operational underperformance in 2024, the IEA added. The OPEC+ bloc of countries has long planned to relax production cuts, but the start of this process has been postponed once more, with producers now pledging to begin unwinding voluntary reductions from January. OPEC+ players currently have around 6.19 million barrels/day of spare capacity, according to the agency, excluding Russia, with more than half of those potential volumes from Saudi oilfields. After a period of substantial volatility driven by fears of an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran, crude values have subsided from upwards of $80/barrel to the low $70s. Focus has shifted instead to China demand, expectations for Libya to resume production and the timeline for OPEC+ to start easing production cuts. “China’s marked slowdown has been the main drag on demand, with its growth this year expected to average just a tenth of the 1.4 million barrels/day increase in 2023,” the agency said. The prospect of a million barrel/day surplus does not take into account any move in OPEC+ production levels, the IEA said. “With supply risks omnipresent, a looser balance would provide some much-needed stability to a market upended by the Covid pandemic, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and, most recently, heightened unrest in the Middle East,” the agency added. Thumbnail photo: An oil pipeline running through Alaska, US (Source: JacobBoomsma/Shutterstock)

LONDON (ICIS)–In episode 19 of the ICIS Hydrogen Insights podcast, hydrogen editor Jake Stones meets with ICIS senior ammonia editor Sylvia Tranganida to discuss today’s global ammonia market. The pair review the current supply/demand balance of grey ammonia today and whether this balance could shift in the future, as well as whether price levels from the 2021-2022 commodity price spike are likely to return. Looking to the future, Sylvia explains the interest the current ammonia market has in decarbonizing and how renewable and low carbon ammonia trade is developing.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Shell expects the deal to sell its energy and chemicals park in Singapore to Chandra Asri and Glencore will be completed by the first quarter of 2025, a company spokesperson said on Thursday. Shell assets will be key to Chandra Asri’s growth strategy Chandra Asri plans for second petrochemical complex still unclear Closing of deal originally scheduled for end-2024 The energy major on 8 May announced the sale, which includes the physical assets and commercial contracts in Singapore, to CAPGC – a joint venture majority-owned by Chandra Asri with Glencore holding a minority stake – for an undisclosed fee. The transaction was initially scheduled to be completed by the end of 2024. “The divestment is subject to regulatory clearance and other customary closing conditions,” the spokesperson said. “Subject to regulatory approval, the transaction is expected to complete by the first quarter of next year.” Shell and CAPGC have also signed crude supply and product offtake agreements that will come into effect following completion. A new entity under CAPGC called Aster Chemicals and Energy will operate the facilities and handle its crude oil purchases and fuel sales, newswire agency Reuters said in a 13 November report, citing unnamed sources. The Shell Energy and Chemicals Park (SECP) in Singapore comprises its integrated refining and chemicals assets on Pulau Bukom and Jurong Island. The Pulau Bukom assets include a 237,000 barrel/day refinery and a 1.1 million tonne/year ethylene cracker. It was Singapore’s first refinery in 1961. SECP KEY TO CHANDRA ASRI’S GROWTH PLANSChandra Asri in a 4 October statement said that its move to acquire the SECP assets aligns with its growth strategy of “going global” as it seeks to expand in the energy, chemical and infrastructure sector not only in Indonesia but also abroad. “Through SECP, which is one of the largest oil refineries and trading hubs in the world, Chandra Asri Group will source petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel, gas oil, and bitumen to support various industries in Indonesia,” the company said. “Additionally, Chandra Asri Group will help fill gaps in the supply of chemical products, such as monoethylene glycol (MEG), polyols, and ethylene, propylene, and styrene monomers, to support manufacturing processes in the country,” it said. “This will ensure that the country’s energy supply is secured as well as reducing dependencies on foreign entities.” In a presentation to investors in early August, Chandra Asri said that it will establish offtake agreements for both fuel and chemical products, utilizing Glencore’s extensive trading network to “secure beneficial arrangements”. Chandra Asri currently operates Indonesia’s sole naphtha cracker in Cilegon, which can produce 900,000 tonnes/year of ethylene and 490,000 tonnes/year of propylene. The new assets in Singapore will boost Chandra Asri’s overall production capacity from around 4.2 million tonnes/year currently to more than 18 million tonnes/year by 2026. The company is also the sole domestic producer of styrene monomer, ethylene, butadiene (BD), MTBE, and butene-1, with a new world-scale chlor-alkali ethylene dichloride (EDC) plant development on the horizon. The company’s planned second petrochemical complex, dubbed CAP2, in Cilegon includes a chlor-alkali plant that is expected to produce 420,000 tonnes/year of caustic soda and 500,000 tonnes/year of EDC. The chlor-alkali plant is expected to be completed by the end of 2026 but Chandra Asri has not yet provided a firm timeline of the other proposed plants previously announced for CAP2. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail image: Chandra Asri’s olefins plant in Cilegon, Banten province (Source: Chandra Asri official website)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Eight people were injured at a fire that broke out at Indian Oil Corp’s (IOC) Mathura refinery in the northern Uttar Pradesh state on the evening of 12 November, the energy company said in a statement. The blaze erupted at about 07:00 GMT (01:30 GMT) on 12 November during start-up of a crude distillation unit (CDU) at the site after a planned maintenance, it said. Located along the Delhi-Agra National Highway about 154 kilometers away from Delhi, the Mathura refinery has a capacity of 8 million tonnes/year. “Three of the injured have been admitted to Apollo Hospital, Delhi, while the others are receiving medical care locally,” IOC said. “All injured individuals are stable, and their recovery is being closely monitored,” it added. The blaze was extinguished with no disruption to refinery operations, it said. “The plant and machinery have not suffered any damage, and refinery activities are continuing as usual,” IOC said. The Mathura refinery incident happened a day after a fire hit IOC’s Gujarat refinery in western India on 11 November and killed two people.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Canadian fertilizer developer Millennial Potash, which is advancing the Banio Potash project in Gabon, announced it has achieved progress at both the Mengali port construction site and the new thermal electricity plant. The company said the port and power generation station represent critical infrastructure enhancements and are integral for a successful potash project, with the Mengali port a key part of the Grande Mayumba Programme, a joint venture for sustainable development between the Republic of Gabon and the African Conservation Development Group. Currently international construction firm Covec Gabon is undertaking earthworks for the port with development set to proceed in phases, but it will eventually be able to accommodate barges and landing craft. Future phases will involve constructing a mineral terminal, storage area, and stacker reclaimer with a conveyor system for loading large ocean-going vessels. It is expected to provide a vital infrastructure link for the Banio project as it would allow for export of bulk potash to overseas markets. Millennial said construction has commenced on a thermal power generation station located south of Mayumba, near the airport, with present work including foundation construction within the facility compound. The power station is scheduled to arrive by barge at Mengali port later this year and is expected to be installed and operational by mid-2025. The construction of the first phase, with a capacity of 8.5 megawatts, is expected to be completed in July 2025. The power plant project is under the direction of contractor Nuez et Fils and it is estimated that the total investment will be approximately $125 million. The company said the new power plant at Mayumba is viewed as a major infrastructure advancement for the region and this new reliable power source is expected to stimulate regional development. “These infrastructure developments are crucial for advancing the project and enhancing the economic viability of our proposed solution mining and conventional processing methods for potash production. The construction of the port and power plant, along with the associated infrastructure, will significantly mitigate risks related to future mining, processing, and shipping operations,” said Farhad Abasov, Millennial Potash chair. “Millennial remains committed to supporting the Gabonese government’s efforts to develop infrastructure in southern Gabon and will keep shareholders informed on the progress of these projects.” The Banio project is in the south-west corner of Gabon, approximately 450 km south of Libreville along the Atlantic coast. The maiden mineral resource estimate showed an indicated mineral resource estimate of 656.6 million tonnes at a grade of 15.9%, with an inferred mineral resource estimate of 1.15 billion tonnes at a grade of 16%.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US harvest is nearly over with corn now at 95% and soybeans having reached 96% completed according to the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop progress report. The pace of corn harvest is ahead of both the 86% level achieved in 2023 and the five-year average of 84%. All the reporting states for corn are at 90% completed except for Pennsylvania at 67%, Colorado at 82% and Wisconsin at 89% of their acreage concluded. Soybean harvesting has climbed to 96%, which is above the 94% rate from last season as well as the five-year average of 91%. All the reporting states for soybeans are at 90% completed except for North Carolina at 53%, Kentucky at 83% and Tennessee at 89% of the crop done. In other harvesting updates the USDA said there is now 71% of the cotton crop done with sorghum acreage 91% completed.

TORONTO (ICIS)–The Port of Vancouver and other Canadian West Coast ports as well as the Port of Montreal were preparing on Wednesday to resume operations, but the exact timeline remains unclear, officials said in updates. The government on Tuesday directed the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) to order the resumption of all operations at the ports and to settle pending labor disputes through binding arbitration. It may take a couple of days before operations at the ports resume, according to the country’s labor minister. The CIRB is an independent agency with its own procedures. The Port of Vancouver acknowledged the government intervention but said that a timeline for full resumption of impacted operations has yet to be determined. The Port of Montreal said that cargo handling activities would gradually resume over the coming days, subject to when the CIRB issues its order. It would take several weeks to clear terminal backlogs and restore the fluidity of supply chains, it added. Labor disruptions at Vancouver and the other West Coast ports were at their 10th day on Wednesday, and at Montreal they were at their 14th day. In the chemical industry, trade group Chemistry Industry Association of Canada (CIAC) welcomed the government intervention. More than Canadian dollar (C$) 22 million ($15.7 million) of chemistry and plastic products was traded through Vancouver and other West Coast ports each day in 2023, for a total of C$8 billion for the year, CIAC said. This includes products that go into making chlorine and related products for municipal drinking water and exports of organic chemicals and resins to global markets, it said. The government needed to do more to avoid “harmful disruptions to our trade infrastructure”, said CIAC president and CEO Bob Masterson. Canada has a limited number of ports that are capable of handling large container ships that are capable of shipping goods to foreign markets, he said. “Continued disruptions signal the wrong message to our trading partners and companies who want to invest in Canada: that Canada cannot be relied on to get their products where they need to go,” he said. Meanwhile, the unions representing the port workers said they would challenge the government’s intervention in the disputes in court. Earlier, another labor union, Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC), filed a court challenge against the government’s move in August to intervene and end a freight rail labor dispute. That case has not yet been decided. The unions argue that the government interventions violate workers’ rights to strike. ($1=C$1.4) Thumbnail shows containers that are commonly handled in ports. Image by Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

HOUSTON (ICIS)–European ethylene producers could be planning more cracker shutdowns, with the lost capacity being replaced by imports from the US. US ethylene export capacity is being expanded. Midstream companies are adding more US capacity to process the feedstock used to make ethylene. Outside of chemical feedstock, midstream companies see potential growth from energy demand from data centers. EUROPE MAY SHUT DOWN MORE CRACKERSUS-based midstream company and ethylene exporter Enterprise Products hinted that more shutdowns were possible beyond the ones announced this year by ExxonMobil, SABIC and Versalis. “We’ve heard from a lot of the chemical companies that they are doing strategic reviews of their European assets,” said Christopher D’Anna, senior vice president, petrochemicals. He made his comments during an earnings conference call. “So, we expect to see some closures, and we expect that to lead to additional ethylene exports going that way,” D’Anna said. Among the region’s crackers that rely predominantly on naphtha, most produce less than 700,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, which prevents them from benefiting from economies of scale, according to ICIS data. Europe’s elevated energy costs pile on the problems faced by these smaller naphtha crackers. US INCREASING ETHYLENE EXPORT CAPACITYUS ethylene exports surged in 2020 after Enterprise Products and Navigator Gas started shipping material out of their joint venture terminal at Morgan’s Point, Texas. That terminal can export 1 million tonnes/year of ethylene. By the end of 2024, the two will complete an expansion project that can handle ethane or ethylene. If dedicated to ethylene, the expansion can export up to 500,000 tonnes/year of ethylene, bringing the total to 1.5 million tonnes/year. By the end of 2025, Enterprise and Navigator will complete another expansion at Morgan’s Point, which will add even more flexible capacity. If dedicated to ethylene, this expansion could export up to 1.5 million tonnes/year of ethylene. In all, the Morgan’s Point terminal could export up to 3 million tonnes/year of ethylene if it chooses to dedicate all of its flexible capacity to ethylene. As new Enterprise ethane capacity comes online during 2025 and 2026, additional flex train capacity can be utilized for ethylene. In addition, Navigator has ordered two carriers that can each carry 48,500 cubic meters of liquid ethylene, with delivery scheduled for March 2027 and July 2027. The carriers have the flexibility to carry ethane, ammonia or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). EXPORTS AND US ETHYLENE BALANCEIf Enterprise and Navigator decide to maximize ethylene exports at its Morgan’s Point terminal, it would likely tighten the US market, since the new crackers being proposed and built are integrated with downstream units. But D’Anna’s comments raises an interesting scenario. Europe may be willing to import ethylene to preserve its downstream units and its manufacturing base. In the future, US chemical producers could add ethylene capacity to serve a global ethylene market. Growing supplies of low-cost feedstock ethane in the US could make such a global ethylene market possible. ETHANE SUPPLIES CONTINUE GROWING IN THE USEthane produced from natural gas processing plants should reach 2.74 million bbl/day in 2025, steady from 2024, according to the Short Term Energy Outlook from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). US oil and natural gas production should also continue increasing, with oil reaching 13.54 million bbl/day in 2025, and dry natural gas reaching 104.62 billion cubic feet/day, according to the EIA. As oil and natural gas production is set to rise steadily over the next two years, ethane output from processing plants is also projected to increase, according to Kojo Orgle, feedstock analyst for ICIS. Orgle monitors the US markets for ethane and other petrochemical feedstock. With limited growth in domestic ethane consumption as a petrochemical feedstock, additional supply will need to be directed toward exports. Consequently, the ethane market will rely heavily on expansions in US waterborne NGL export capacity. Ethane supplies hit record highs this year and may continue to grow if new outlets do not keep pace with production. OTHER MIDSTREAM DEVELOPMENTSEnterprise noted future demand for natural gas from data centers being built in Texas and from new power plants being developed under the recent Texas Energy Fund. Energy Transfer Partners is pursuing similar opportunities for power plants and data centers throughout its natural gas network, from Arizona to Florida and from Texas to Michigan. Energy Transfer received requests to connect to about 45 power plants in 11 states that could consume gas loads of up to 6 billion cubic feet/day. For data centers, Energy Transfer received requests from 40 that could consume gas loads of up to 10 billion cubic feet/day. EnLink Midstream said data centers could represent at least 7.5% of US electricity consumption by 2030, up from 2.5%. With rising natural gas demand from data centers and continued capital discipline among producers, natural gas prices are projected to rise in 2025 and in 2026, Orgle said. Such demand growth could provide support for natural gas prices, which could raise prices for ethane. If US ethane export capacity does not grow fast enough to drive substantial ethane disposition, increased ethane rejection may occur as higher natural gas prices boost ethane’s fuel value, Orgle said. MIDSTREAM PROJECTS The following table shows some of the midstream projects being developed in the US. Company Project Type Capacity Units Location Startup Brazos Midstream Sundance I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Martin County Oct-24 Brazos Midstream Unnamed Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day – H2 2025 Delek Unnamed Gas Plant 110 million cubic feet/day Delaware H1 2025 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase I Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM Q4 24 Durango Midstream Kings Landing, Phase II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Eddy County, NM na Energy Transfer Frac IX Fractionator 165,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q4 26 Energy Transfer Badger Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware mid 25 Energy Transfer Permian processing expansions* Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Permian Energy Transfer Expansion of Nederland NGL terminal Terminal Up to 250,000 bbl/day Nederland, Texas mid 25 Energy Transfer Expansion of Orla East Gas pPlant 50 million cubic feet/day Orla, Texas Q3 24 Entergy Transfer Lonestar Express Expansion Pipeline 90,000 bbl/day 2026 Enterprise Fractionator 14 Fractionator 195,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West (Mentone 4) Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 25 Enterprise Mentone West 2 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware h1 26 Enterprise Mentone 3 Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Delaware in service Enterprise Leonidas Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland In service Enterprise Bahia NGL pipeline Pipeline 600,000 bbl/day Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 1 Terminal 120,000 ethane, 900,000 refrigerated tank Q3 25 Enterprise Neches River Terminal (NRT), phase 2 Terminal add 60,000 ethane to raise total to 180,000, Propane 360,000 H1 26 Enterprise Ethylene Export Expansion* Terminal 550,000-2m tonnes/year Q4 24 & Q4 25 Enterprise Orion Gas Plant 300 million cubic feet/day Midland Q3 25 Enterprise Enterprise Hydrocarbons Terminal (EHT) LPG expansion Terminal 300,000 bl/day Houston Ship Channel end 2026 Gulf Coast Fractionators JV * GCF Fractionator Fractionator 135,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu 24-Nov Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Terminal 315,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA Moss Lake Hackberry NGL Project Fractionator 300,000 bbl Calcesieu Ship Channel NA MPLX Preakness II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up MPLX Secretariat Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Delaware H2 25 MPLX Harmon Creek II Gas Plant 200 million cubic feet/day Marcellus started up MPLX Harmon Creek III Gas plant 300 million cubic feet/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX Harmon Creek III de-ethanizer 40,000 bbl/day Marcellus H2 26 MPLX BANGL pipeline** Pipeline expansion from 125,000 to 250,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK MB-6 Fractionator Fractionator 125,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu year end 24 ONEOK West Texas NGL Pipeline Expansion Pipeline increase to 740,000 bbl/day year end 24 ONEOK Elk Creek Pipeline Expansion**** Pipeline increase to 435,000 bbl/day Q1 25 ONEOK Medford Fractionator rebuild Fractionator 210,000 bbl/day Medord, Oklahoma Q4 26, Q1 27 Targa Train 9 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 10 Fractionator Fractionator 120,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu started up Targa Train 11 Fractionator Fractionator 150,000 bbl/day Mont Belvieu Q3 26 Targa Greenwood Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 23 Targa Greenwood II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland started up Targa Wildcat II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 24 Targa Roadrunner II Gas Plant 230 million cubic feet/day Delaware started up Targa Bull Moose Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 25 Targa Pembrook II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q4 25 Targa Daytona NGL Pipeline Pipeline 400,000 bbl/day Completed Targa LPG Export Expansion Terminal 1m bbl/month Q3 23 Targa Galena Park LPG terminal expansion Terminal 650,000 bbl/month H2 25 Targa Falcon II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q2 26 Targa Bull Moose II Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q1 26 Targa East Pembrook Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Midland Q2 26 Targa East Driver Gas Plant 275 million cubic feet/day Delaware Q3 26 Insight article by Al Greenwood Thumbnail photo: Polymer pellets (source: Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s Energy Law that will take effect in January 2025 is expected to drive investments in the domestic hydrogen sector as it will provide further policy support, and enable technological developments aimed at expanding the scope of hydrogen applications. Under the law, hydrogen will no longer be classified as a dangerous chemical product, thus, removing restrictions around its applications, production and storage. China’s hydrogen sector is currently in the demonstration phase, mainly focusing on commercial vehicle application. When the new legislation kicks in, hydrogen production and refuelling stations and storage facilities will be allowed outside designated chemical parks, and that is expected to address infrastructure gaps in the sector. Hefty transportation cost due to lack of hydrogen refuelling stations and long-distance pipelines has been one of the key bottlenecks that impede hydrogen adoption in China. Storage and transportation account for about 30% of end-use hydrogen costs, limiting hydrogen applications in urban public transport and long-haul sectors. With the new energy law, development of the Chinese hydrogen sector is expected to gain pace between 2026 and 2030. (See ICIS Hydrogen Topic Page for details) The China Energy Law was approved on 8 November at the 12th session of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top legislature. It fills a legislative gap since China – despite being the world’s largest energy producer and consumer – had long lacked an overarching energy law. Currently, there are several standalone energy-related laws and regulations in the country, including the Electricity Law, the Coal Law, the Energy Conservation Law, and the Renewable Energy Law, but lacked a legislation that covers the whole energy industry until now. The recently launched Energy Law will provide a much-needed framework for strengthening the legal foundation of the energy sector, ensuring national energy security and promoting renewable and low-carbon transformation. The law includes nine sections, covering stipulations on energy planning, development and utilization, energy market systems, energy reserves and emergency measures, energy technology innovation, supervision and management, legal responsibilities, supplementary provisions. Insight article by Patricia Tao and Yu Yunfeng