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Speciality Chemicals14-Jan-2025
BARCELONA (ICIS)–A ceasefire in the Gaza
conflict could potentially end attacks in the
Red Sea, reopening the Suez Canal and
normalizing the Asia-to-Europe container
shipping route.
Gaza ceasefire could stop Houthi attacks on
Red Sea shipping
Route via Cape of Good Hope takes 10 days
longer than Suez Canal
Reopening Suez would add 10 days of
inventory to the market
Europe would be open to more Asia exports
Freight rates could fall as container
capacity is freed up
Ceasefire negotiations ongoing
‘Stunning’ levels of overcapacity expected
in China in 2025
New Cefic report highlights need for new
Europe industrial deal for chemicals
In this Think Tank podcast, Will
Beacham interviews
Nigel Davis
and John Richardson from
the ICIS market development team and
Paul Hodges, chairman of
New Normal Consulting.
Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
presenter and interviewees, and do not
necessarily represent those of ICIS.
ICIS is organising regular updates to help
the industry understand current market trends.
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Read the latest issue of ICIS
Chemical Business.
Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s
ICIS
blogs.
Gas14-Jan-2025
Over 10 LNG diversions to Europe agreed far
in January
This is driven by a price premium to Europe
versus Asia for closer US cargoes; TTF up on
supply risks and LNG reliance
It is expected that Europe could draw more
diversions this week
LONDON (ICIS)–Over LNG 10 cargoes have been
diverted from a heading to Asia instead to
Europe so far in 2025, driven by premium prices
in Europe that could cause further cargoes to
be redirected, according to traders.
ICIS data has so far recorded five US LNG
cargoes switching direction towards European
markets, and one to Turkey, while on the water
in the past two weeks, with several more deals
meaning more are expected to come.
Others may have made the decision to switch to
Europe at the point of loading and not show a
change in direction while on the water.
A source said in the first week of January that
seven diversions were already taking place or
planned, including from Singapore and
Japan-based traders.
The latest cargo to be diverted on 13 January
was the 174,000cbm Flex Vigilant.
The vessel, with a US Freeport cargo, was
heading towards Asia, signaling for Thailand
for 9 February, but turned north and updated
its ETA to 23 January, suggesting a nearer
destination in Europe instead.
Other recent diversions include Diamond Gas’
Diamond Gas Crystal from the Cameron plant in
the US, after earlier signaling a destination
of Japan, the Bushu Maru, the Grace Dahlia and
the Maran Gas Sparta.
“Diversions even started when Asian spot LNG
was still at a premium to TTF of $0.45/MMBtu,”
said one Europe-based trader this week,
estimating over 10 cargoes diverted for loaded
and soon-to-be loaded cargoes. “Now cargoes
have been diverted and the spread widened again
for February.”
ICIS has recorded an average TTF discount to
the ICIS East Asian LNG index between 1-13
January of -$0.11/MMBtu, rising on 13 January
to a TTF premium of $0.898/MMBtu – the highest
since 2023.
This could trigger further diversions.
The average European
discount does not consider the longer journey
time and chartering costs to send US LNG
cargoes to Asia.
Many of the cargoes may have been sold to
European buyers on a prompt basis.
In the future, more US LNG sellers are likely
to hold European regas capacity and be able to
place cargoes directly into the market.
Any TTF premium to Asia would make for clearly
higher margins sending US LNG to Europe if the
seller can find a buyer or has its own
regasification position.
Sources pointed to weak demand in Asia as a key
driver for the diversions, particularly as
China prepares for its annual Spring Festival
and markets there slow down in response.
This has fed into the changing price spread,
where US LNG sellers will constantly be
monitoring European and Asian netbacks and
adjusting positions.
TTF prices have received relatively more
support from falling stocks, comparatively
colder weather and short-term signs of lower
feedgas nominations to US LNG plants.
Europe may well need to maintain parity, or a
small premium, to Asian markets into the
storage injection season later in the year.
HOW DIVERSIONS ARE AGREED
To ensure that a TTF premium is captured, “the
most straightforward way would be on the paper
side …to hedge your price risk exposure on the
physical side,” with costs factored in.
The diversions in this market can also favor
shipowners and operators.
“Right now it is hard to see how an owner would
complain being given a short ballast back to
the US Gulf instead of a long ballast back from
the Far East, when rates are so low and the
eastern freight market is so weak,” said a
trader.
The source added if the vessel diverting to
Europe from Asia was intended for further trade
or dry-dock in the east, an “agreement would
need to be struck to compensate the longer
ballast voyage and costs incurred to the owner
from diverting into Europe”.
Diversions can be arranged for spot and some
contractual volumes.
The destination-free structure of US FOB
contracts is perfect for these kind of
short-term diversions.
DES contracts can be more problematic, and in
general must have consent from the seller as
they bear the risk of the cargo until after it
has been delivered.
Additional reporting by Lars Kjoellesdal
Ethylene14-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–On his first day in office as
president, Donald Trump could repeal the
pause on permits for new liquefied natural
gas (LNG) terminals and automobile policies
that are so restrictive, critics say they
favor electric vehicles (EVs) over those
powered by internal combustion engines (ICE),
an oil and gas trade group said.
Repealing those polices are among the goals
of the American Petroleum Institute (API),
and they would have indirect effects on the
US chemical industry.
LNG exports affect US chemical markets
because they support prices for natural gas
by providing another source of demand.
Natural gas prices influence those for
ethane, the main feedstock that US crackers
use to make ethylene.
EVs consume more plastics than their
counterparts that are powered by internal
combustion engines. EVs are also creating
demand for new polymers and fluids that can
meet their unique material challenges.
REMOVING THE HALT ON NEW LNG
PERMITSThe US has effectively
frozen the issuance of new LNG permits since
January 2024, when President Joe Biden issued
the order. The freeze applies to terminals
that will export LNG to countries that lack
free trade agreements with the US.
“I think the LNG pause is something that they
can address on day one,” said Mike Sommers,
API president. He made his comments in a
briefing earlier in the week.
Trump takes office on 20 January.
If Trump removes the freeze, it would not
automatically lead to a flood of new permits
for LNG terminals.
US companies may be reluctant to build more
terminals when global LNG capacity is
expected to increase.
Rising US costs for material and labor have
made LNG projects less attractive.
Legal challenges could arise during the
permitting process.
REMOVING EFFECTIVE RESTRICTIONS ON
ICE VEHICLESTrump could ax two
Biden automobile policies his first day in
office, Sommers said.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s
(EPA’s)
recent tailpipe rule, which gradually
restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)
from light vehicles.
The Department of Transportation’s
(DoT’s) Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) program, which mandates
fuel-efficiency standards.
The group also wants Trump to withdraw
a waiver that the federal government
granted to California, which allowed the
state to adopt a program that will gradually
phase out ICE vehicles.
California’s program, called Advanced Clean
Cars II (ACC II),
is the lynchpin for similar programs
adopted by 12 other US states and
territories. If Trump can successfully
withdraw the waiver, then it would prevent
California and the 12 other states and
territories from adopting ACC II style
programs.
The fate of the ACC II program
could become a legal dispute over state
versus federal power that would need to be
settled in court.
OTHER POLICY GOALS OF THE
APIEVs and LNG permits make up
two of the five policies that the API will
promote to the new administration.
The other three include permitting reform,
tax policy and issuing a new five-year
offshore leasing program.
Under these five policy goals, the API has
outlined more than 70 actions that the
administration could take, many of them
possible on Trump’s first day in office.
Others may require acts from Congress. This
could be challenging because Trump’s party
holds a two-seat majority in the lower
legislative chamber of the US.
API TO DISCOURAGE TARIFFS ON CANADIAN
CRUDEPrior to taking office,
Trump had threatened to impose tariffs of 25%
on imports from Canada. Trump did not
indicate that he would exclude Canada’s
sizeable shipments of crude oil.
In 2023, Canadian oil made up nearly 60% of
all crude imported by the US, according to
the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Canadian oil is heavier than that produced in
the US, so the two grades complement each
other in the nation’s refineries.
“40% of the American refinery kit is not
tooled to refine the kind of oil that is
found in the US,” Sommers said.
“We’re confident that the Trump
administration understands the importance of
that kind of trade, and we’re going to work
with them as they consider their trade policy
over time,” he said.
PIECEMEAL PRESERVATION OF
IRAThe API would like the
government to preserve some of the tax
credits created by the Inflation Reduction
Act (IRA). Those include the carbon capture
tax credits under Section 45Q and the
hydrogen production tax credits under Section
45V.
Many API members are developing carbon
capture and hydrogen projects.
Meanwhile, it would like the government to
repeal the IRA’s methane fee.
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Crude Oil14-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has been rushing to
ship out goods ahead of new US
tariffs under the Trump administration
which should keep exports growth strong in the
short term, but external demand is projected to
slow in line with a weaker global economy in
2025.
Dec exports to US hit 30-month high, but
risks loom
Ships, semiconductors lead export growth in
2024
Chinese government stimulus may back import
growth
China closed the year with a record trade
surplus of $101.6 billion in December, driven
by surging exports and a return to growth for
imports after two straight months of
contraction.
This pushed both the monthly and annual trade
surpluses to all-time highs, with the former
exceeding $100 billion for the first time ever.
“December’s data likely benefited from some
export frontloading
ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s
inauguration this month,” said Lynn Song, chief
economist for Greater China at Dutch banking
and financial information services provider
ING, in a note.
In December, China’s exports to the US surged
by 15.6% year on year, a 30-month high and the
strongest increase in shipments after the
ASEAN, which grew by 18.9%.
For the whole of 2024, China’s exports and
imports rose by 5.9%, reversing the 4.6%
decline in the previous year. Imports for the
full year posted a 1.1% growth, in contrast
with the 5.5% contraction recorded in 2023.
The trade surplus of the world’s second-biggest
economy widened to a record high of $992.2
billion, up 20.7% from the preceding year.
Against the US, China’s trade surplus widened
to $359.9 billion, after narrowing sharply to
$339.94 billion in 2023. The US accounted for a
third of China’s total trade surplus in 2024.
China’s export success last year was
concentrated in key sectors like ships,
semiconductors, autos, and household
appliances.
Key exports by key products
On the imports front, the latest data “shows a
clear divide” within China’s economy, according
to ING’s Song.
“Sectors benefiting from policy support were
the only areas of strength in terms of import
demand,” he said.
China’s focus on technology self-sufficiency
caused the 57.9% year-on-year surge in imports
of automatic data processing equipment, with
imports of semiconductors up by 10.4%, and
those of hi-tech products rising by 10.7%.
Softening commodities demand in 2024 weakened
import figures across the board.
Agricultural products saw a 7.9% decline, while
imports of iron ore, crude oil, lumber, and
steel fell by 2.5%, 3.9%, 1.5%, and 9.2%
respectively.
“China’s consumption could see a modest
recovery in 2025, depending on how effective
policy support is, but it remains uncertain how
much of this will translate into stronger
import demand as policies look likely to
benefit domestic producers more,” Song added.
STRONGER HEADWINDS FOR
EXPORTS
“External demand has been an important
contributor to growth momentum in 2024, not
only through the record trade surplus but also
the impact on manufacturing,” he said.
However, looming tariff increases, and the
prospect of slower global growth cast a shadow
over external demand in 2025, Song noted.
“Our ING scenario currently has tariffs
starting to take effect in the second quarter
of this year, with tariffs on China potentially
coming earlier,” he said.
China’s exports still face the risk of
contraction this year if US’ additional tariffs
on Chinese goods turned out to be larger or
implemented sooner than expected, said Ho Woei
Chen, economist at Singapore-based UOB Global
Economics & Markets Research, in a note.
Meanwhile, imports may be somewhat supported by
the government’s stimulus
measures to boost domestic consumption, but
imports of intermediate goods could drop when
any additional tariffs kicked in, Ho said.
“Weighed by additional tariffs and intensifying
trade tensions, China’s exports grew just 0.5%
while imports fell -2.8% in 2019,” Ho said.
“For now, we factor in marginal growth of
around 1.0% for both exports and imports in
2025.”
Focus article by Nurluqman
Suratman
Polyethylene Terephthalate13-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Bottle-grade US polyethylene
terephthalate (PET) demand is currently in a
seasonal lull and is expected to continue that
way through the end of January and into
February.
However, demand is expected to pick up in March
with healthy orders already for the month,
according to market participants.
Typically, demand picks up ahead of peak season
which runs from Memorial Day at the end of May
to Labor Day at the beginning of September, but
in recent years, demand has been slow to pick
up before the beginning of peak season.
Historically, an increase in temperatures
pushes consumers to purchase more bottled
beverages.
PET resins can be broadly classified into
bottle, fibre or film grade, named according to
the downstream applications. Bottle grade resin
is the most commonly traded form of PET resin
and it is used in bottle and container
packaging through blow molding and
thermoforming. Fibre grade resin goes into
making polyester fibre, while film grade resin
is used in electrical and flexible packaging
applications.
PET can be compounded with glass fibre for the
production of engineering plastics.
DAK Americas, Indorama, Nan Ya Plastics
Corporation and Far Eastern New Century (FENC)
are PET producers in the US.
Gas13-Jan-2025
MPs renew call for German Galushchenko to
address ministry corruption concerns
The summon comes after minister and MPs
disagree over nuclear capacity relying on
Russian technology
MPs raise fears over major costs, no
transparent project supervision
LONDON (ICIS)– The Ukrainian energy minister
German Galushchenko has been summoned to
parliament to explain accusations of corruption
in the ministry, two members of parliament
confirmed to ICIS on 13 January.
Galushchenko was summoned in parliament in
September 2024 after a deputy minister was
fired for accepting a bribe. The minister
refused to attend at the time.
MPs have now renewed the request for
Galushchenko to appear in the unicameral
parliament of Ukraine this week after a major
dispute erupted over a government push to build
multi-billion dollar nuclear capacity reliant
on Russian technology.
Last year, the government resurrected plans
initiated in the 1990s to build two new
reactors with an installed capacity of 2GW,
whose costs at current levels could reach $4
billion.
The project, which benefits from the support of
German Galushchenko and the nuclear producer
Energoatom, involves buying two old reactors
purchased by Bulgaria from Rosatom some 15
years ago.
The reactors were secured for the construction
of the Belene nuclear power plant in northern
Bulgaria but had not been used amid an arbitral
dispute with Rosatom which eventually forced
the southeast European country to pay $620
million to the company for them.
The Ukrainian government now wants to buy these
reactors and use them at the Khmelnitsky
nuclear power plant in southwestern Ukraine.
PROJECT DETAILS
MPs including some members of the majority
Servant of the People party oppose the deal,
claiming Galushchenko had not been providing
updated technical details and financial
estimates for the project.
They also raised concerns about the minister’s
reference to some members of the EU delegation
in Kyiv, whom he described as ‘mid-level
diplomats,’ not authorized to express an
official position.
The government wants the project to be
discussed and approved in the full chamber but
no official date has been set yet.
Speaking to ICIS, Inna Sovsun, a MP from the
opposition Holos party and member of the
parliament’s energy committee, said
Galushchenko appeared in parliament last week
and submitted documents dating back to 2018,
which are no longer valid.
“He provided an estimate of Ukraine Hryvnia
(UAH) 77 billion (€1.8 billion) but,
considering Ukraine’s high inflation rate since
the start of the war, this cost is at least
double that between UAH150-UAH200 billion,” she
said.
Sovsun said Galushchenko himself accepted the
cost may be higher and added that he submitted
technical specifications for a project that was
slightly different to the one that is supported
by the government.
The government insists Ukraine needs secure
electricity capacity to replace the thermal
power plants which had been destroyed by
Russian missiles.
However, Sovsun said it would take years to
build the nuclear capacity, offering cold
comfort to millions of Ukrainians who had
endured power cuts since the start of Russia’s
full-scale war.
“Is this [the nuclear capacity] the best option
now? We need things done quickly and as cheaply
as possible,” she said.
FINANCING
Sovsun also raised questions about the
financing of the project, noting that it may be
difficult for Energoatom to secure funds from
international financial institutions.
This is because the company still has no
functional supervisory board to oversee its
operations.
If Ukraine fails to secure funding from IFIs it
may need to increase end consumer electricity
tariffs to fund the project.
Sovsun noted that considering the sensitivity
of the project it may be subject to no public
scrutiny, which could open up opportunities for
corrupt practices.
A supervisory board was appointed at Energoatom
in June 2024 but has not been meeting or
publishing activity reports since then,
according to Oleksandr Lysenko, a Ukraine-based
corporate governance specialist who confirmed
this to ICIS.
Speaking to ICIS Andrii Zhupanyn, an MP and
deputy head of the energy and utility committee
said minister Galushchenko’s reference to
members of the EU’s delegation to Kyiv as
mid-level diplomats not authorized to make an
official statement on the matter was being
‘carefully read’ in western embassies.
He said the minister had referred to private
correspondence between Sovsun and some members
of the EU delegation.
Sovsun conceded neither US nor EU partners had
not expressed an official view on Ukraine’s
nuclear power plans.
The ministry of energy did not reply to
questions from ICIS but said in a statement
posted on its website: “Within the framework of
the relevant public discussions, private
correspondence of mid-level diplomats, not
authorized to express the official position of
the EU or its member states, was used.”
Ethylene13-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas
Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from
23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals
pessimism persists as downturn could last to
2030
For many players within Latin America
petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more
stop on the long downturn journey as, for
many, the market’s rebalancing will only take
place towards the end of the decade.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PE demand could
finally improve from Q2
onwards
Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand
should start slowly in 2025, but it could
take a decisive turn for the better from Q2
onwards.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PP supply to
remain long amid squeezed
margins
Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected
to remain oversupplied in the first half of
2025, with producers’ margins likely to
remain squeezed.
OUTLOOK
’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in
2025, giving chemicals a shot at
recovery
For all the talk about a soft landing for the
US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid
landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than
2% for the fifth consecutive year as the
labor market remains healthy and consumer
spending resilient.
OUTLOOK ’25: US NGL demand to rebound
moderately
Though demand for US natural gas liquids
(NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025
due to a general inventory glut, various
industry and environmental conditions have
feedstocks poised for a moderate demand
rebound in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will
drive US ethylene market entering new
year
Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene
market heading into 2025 as it enters an
unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as
10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going
down for planned maintenance during Q1 and
Q2.
OUTLOOK ’25: US BD poised for demand,
export growth as production stabilizes,
grows
US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at
the start of 2025 as outages which limited
production in 2024 are resolved, while both
exports and demand are expected to grow in
the new year.
OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PE to see both
demand extremes between high cost food-grade
PCR and low cost PIR
US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets
continue to see extreme disparity between
sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive
grades of both post-consumer and
post-industrial recycled high-density
polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled
low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is
expected to persist into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PP navigating
mediocre growth and
oversupply
US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be
relatively less volatile in 2025, following a
year where prices changed every month. Higher
propylene inventory levels and improved
supply expected to stabilize supply/demand
dynamics.
OUTLOOK ’25: US ACN demand weakness
to continue amid
oversupply
The three-year demand decline in US
acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market
growth to support favorable rates; container
market readies for port labor issues,
tariffs
Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker
market is likely to support favorable rates
in 2025, while the container shipping market
could see upward pressure from possible labor
strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and
proposed tariffs on Chinese imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: Lackluster US aromatics
demand, rising inventories pressure benzene
and toluene
After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have
declined through the latter half of the year,
due to soft derivative demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing
weak demand, overcapacity
The US styrene market enters the new year
facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low
operating rates. With a light maintenance
season ahead, the market’s fate will be
driven largely by derivative demand, which
continues to face challenging headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PS, EPS demand to
remain soft
Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to
remain soft into the next year with weak
downstream markets, polymer recycling
regulations and overall expectations of a
smaller growth in the economy for 2025
compared with 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Ample LatAm PS supply
meets poor demand
The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market
will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the
back of weak demand across the region
combined with plentiful supply.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PET demand expected
higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain
risks
Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate
(PET) should increase in 2025 if lower
inflation and interest rates drive
consumption with stronger growth expected in
the second half of the year, but the
possibilities of a trade war or supply
disruption in upstream purified terephthalate
acid (PTA) remain concerns.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PET prices
pressured by economic challenges, tariff
shifts
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in
Latin America are expected to soften in H1
2025, driven by changes in import tariffs,
lower Asia prices and easing freight rates.
OUTLOOK ’25: US BDO demand to
strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy,
tariffs may be headwinds
US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to
strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled
inflation and lower interest rates, but
possible tariffs and changes to electric
vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges.
OUTLOOK ’25: US caustic soda
trajectory to be impacted by PVC length,
tariffs
The US caustic soda market in the latter half
of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply
disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on
the chlorine side of the molecule.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PVC faces oversupply,
export challenges
The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set
to face significant headwinds in 2025,
entering the year with abundant inventories,
expanded production capacity and constrained
export opportunities. The confluence of these
factors points to a challenging landscape for
producers as they navigate both domestic and
international market pressures.
OUTLOOK ’25: Latin America PVC market
faces challenges from tariffs and instability
in H1
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin
America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due
to various regional challenges.
OUTLOOK ’25: US soda ash facing
subdued demand
US soda ash is facing subdued demand going
into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up.
OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PET expects strong
beverage demand amid international
risk
Though the build up to 2025 has been
tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both
optimism and distrust that the year will keep
to its original promise.
OUTLOOK ’25: US nylon demand weak
amid manufacturing
contraction
Demand declines in US nylon markets which
started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2
2025. Demand was weak in multiple application
sectors including automotive, industrial,
textiles, electrical and electronics. The
only application sectors that performed well
were packaging and medical.
OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone
production to remain curtailed on soft
demand
US phenol demand will likely remain soft and
weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as
expectations for a rebound are tempered.
OUTLOOK ’25: US MMA anticipating new
supply in new year
US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are
trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics
amid heightened volatility going into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US ABS, PC look to
remain pressured with weakened
markets
Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
(ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to
remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024
with industries like automotive, household
appliances and housing markets not expecting
to see increases.
OUTLOOK ’25: US polyurethanes brace
for Asia overcapacity and US weak
demand
The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU)
products in the US is marked by the
expectation of a very slow economic recovery,
constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity
of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and
polyols built in Asia, possible labor
strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing
issues with the Red Sea’s route.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PG, UPR face pressure
from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand
boost remains
While recent sharp declines in propylene have
led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG)
in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been
moderated by buyer interest in winter
applications.
OUTLOOK ’25: US acetic acid, VAM
exports expected stronger, domestic demand
could rise
US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer
(VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving
after production outages resolved, while
tight global supply is expected to boost
export demand and lower inflation may lead to
stronger domestic demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PA remains
sufficiently supplied even with capacity
reduction
US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will
tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a
major domestic producer. Supply is expected
to be sufficient to meet current demand
levels, but any future demand improvement is
likely to require support from increased
imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: US MA facing muted
demand expectations
US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered
expectations for a rebound in demand going
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US EG/EO demand expected
higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1
supply
Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and
ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025
on restocking and if lower inflation drives
consumption, but this may be met with tight
supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance.
OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream
propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant
closure
US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are
expected to be balanced in the first half of
2025 with price movements tracking upstream
propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue
facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market
next year is the decision by Shell to shutter
its production facility in the Netherlands in
the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’25: US melamine to see
consequences from US antidumping
ruling
The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty
(CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14
February 2024 against melamine imports from
Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands,
Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an
investigation from the United States
International Trade Commission (US ITC) that
is slated to impact the melamine industry at
large in 2025.
OUTLOOK
’25: US President Trump could move quickly on
tariffs, deregulation
As US president, Donald Trump could quickly
proceed on campaign promises to impose
tariffs and cut regulations after taking
office on 20 January.
OUTLOOK ’25: US base oils seek to
manage new normal amid oversupply, demand
deterioration
Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand
is likely to persist into a third year — this
year with less optimism for significant
domestic demand recovery in automotive and
headwinds from additional supply entering the
global marketplace.
OUTLOOK ’25: Squeezed import margins
leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to
supply disruptions in H1
Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids
and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply
disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a
sharp increase in feedstock costs across the
oil palm complex over the last quarter and
sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the
wider market.
OUTLOOK ’25: US H1 glycerine markets
to remain relatively tight amid squeezed
biodiesel margins, import
bottlenecks
US H1 glycerine markets are expected to
remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated
weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME)
production in Q1 stemming from pending
changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives
against the backdrop of sustained import
logistics bottlenecks create short-term
supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine
supplies.
OUTLOOK ’25: US epoxy resins
grappling with duty, logistics, demand
issues
US epoxy resins players are trying to
formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of
duty investigations and guarded sentiment on
demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US oxo-alcohols,
acrylates, plasticizers see falling
feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes
potential tariffs
Following declines in feedstock prices in the
autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols,
acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face
demand headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: US etac supply concerns
emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more
stable but feedstock costs
fall
After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp
drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate
(butac) and some glycol ethers have led to
volatility in US spot and contract prices in
the latter half of the year. While notable
declines in upstream costs have not been seen
in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are
ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on
material produced in Mexico may impact
domestic availability in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Brazil ethanol
production strong; market watches forex,
Combustivel do Futuro,
RenovaBio
The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust
domestic production and evolving global
energy policies. As Brazil continues to
position itself as one of the leaders in
renewable energy, initiatives like
Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set
to play a crucial role in driving growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: US methanol supply
expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up
mid-year
US methanol supply is tight heading into the
new year, a situation that has been offset by
lackluster demand, but demand is expected to
pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled
inflation and lower interest rates fuel
consumer spending and the housing market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Gradual demand recovery
anticipated for US TiO2 by
H2
North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand
is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2
2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve
continues to ease monetary policy.
Ethylene13-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 10 January.
Canada’s Trudeau resigns as prime
minister
Canada’s Justin Trudeau has resigned as prime
minister and Liberal Party leader, with the
country now set to head to the polls and
return the Conservative party back into
office.
Mitsubishi Chem cancels plans for US
MMA project
Mitsubishi Chemical Corp (MCC) said on
Tuesday it has decided not to proceed with
its planned 350,000 tonne/year methyl
methacrylate (MMA) project at
Geismar, Louisiana.
INSIGHT: Wall Street kicks off new
year with 2025 earnings cuts for
chemicals
On Wall Street, hope springs eternal at the
beginning of a new year, and especially for
sectors that have underperformed in the past
year. But for chemicals, analysts are kicking
off the year with cuts to their 2025 profit
forecasts as a recovery in housing,
automotive and consumer durables appears to
be further off in the horizon.
UPDATE: Strike averted as ILA, ports
reach tentative agreement
Union dockworkers and US Gulf and East Coast
port operators tentatively agreed to a new
six-year contract Wednesday, averting a
strike that was about a week away.
INSIGHT: Mitsubishi cancels
ethylene-based US MMA project amid global
glut
A surge in new methyl methacrylate (MMA)
capacity in China will keep utilization rates
depressed during the next few years, even
with the recent decision by Mitsubishi
Chemical to cancel its proposed project in
the US.
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates
still rising as tariff threat replaces strike
concerns
The tentative agreement between US
Gulf and East Coast ports and dockworkers has
taken some of the pressure off rates for
shipping containers from Asia to the US, but
the threat of tariffs proposed by
President-elect Donald Trump is likely to
support higher prices moving forward.
Speciality Chemicals13-Jan-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the
stories from ICIS Latin America for the week
ended on 10 January.
NEWS
Brazil’s Senator,
manufacturers aiming to overturn higher
chemicals tariffs, charge against
BraskemBrazilian senator
Sergio Moro this week rallied plastic
manufacturers against the October increase in
import tariffs arguing it primarily benefits
petrochemicals major Braskem by protecting
its sales in the domestic market.
Argentina’s chemicals
output down 2% in November, outpacing
manufacturing
fallArgentina’s chemicals
output fell by 2.1% in November, year on
year, as the sector and peers in
manufacturing continue to be one hardest hit
by the recession, according to the country’s
statistical office Indec.
Brazil’s chemicals
producer prices up nearly 12% in
NovemberBrazil’s chemicals
producer prices rose by 11.6% in November,
year on year, the country’s statistical
office IBGE said on Tuesday.
Brazil’s chemicals
output falls in November but annual growth at
2.4%Brazil’s chemicals
output fell in November by 2.1%, month on
month, according to the country’s statistical
office IBGE on Wednesday.
Brazil’s inflation down
slightly but central bank to remain firm on
hiking interest
ratesBrazil’s annual rate
of inflation fell slightly in December to
4.83%, compared with November’s 4.87%,
according to the country’s statistics office
IBGE on Friday.
Mexico’s inflation
keeps falling but rate cuts could slow down
on global
uncertaintyMexico’s annual
rate of inflation fell more than expected to
4.2% in December, down from 4.5% in November,
the country’s statistical office Inegi said
on Thursday.
Brazil’s November base
oils supply exceeds
demandBrazil’s base oils
supply rose in November as a rebound in
imports more than covered for a drop in
domestic output.
PRICING
LatAm PP domestic
prices up in Brazil on currency devaluation,
higher import
tariffDomestic
polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Brazil
on the back of currency devaluation and
higher import tariff. This is the first price
increase since August 2024.
LatAm PE international
prices increase on higher US export
offersInternational
polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed higher
due to more expensive offers from the US.
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