SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson. Is the petrochemicals industry really a free market? Or have we been telling ourselves a comforting fiction? As we sift through margins, P&Ls, and operating rates to predict a recovery, we might be asking the wrong questions. Let’s rewind to 2014. While China’s state media signalled a major push toward self-sufficiency in petrochemicals, many Western analysts dismissed it — seeing China through the lens of profit maximisation. But I was told way back in 2000 that China’s strategy had just as much to do with jobs and economic value creation as with profits. Fast forward to today: polyester fibres, , polyethylene terephthalate (PET) film and bottle grade resins, purified terephthalic acid (PTA), styrene and polypropylene (PP),— China is nearly or completely self-sufficient in these markets. The drivers? National security, supply certainty, and industrial policy. And it’s not just China. Middle East investments — underpinned by cheap feedstocks, state ownership, and now oil demand substitution — follow similar, non-market logic. If key players haven’t been led by market signals alone, what happens next? Despite the deepest downturn in petrochemical history — likely to stretch into 2028 — new capacities keep rising. Not from those chasing short-term profit, but from those with long-term, state-backed agendas. Just a modest rise in China’s PP operating rates above the ICIS base case assumption could flip China into being a net exporter by 2027. The trade war may play a role here, as it has increased supply security concerns. True, there are more private petrochemical companies in China than ten years ago. But this latest wave of investment is more state-owned-enterprise-led than the previous one. And private companies can also benefit from local and central government support Saudi investments in refinery-to-petrochemicals will persist. More ethane crackers in the Middle East will be built. China’s plant-build costs are often 50%+ lower than the U.S., thanks to relentless innovation support. So… what does this mean for producers operating on pure market terms? Can they survive, let alone thrive, in a landscape shaped by strategic ambition rather than shareholder return? Your thoughts are welcome. Let’s start the conversation. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)– South Korea has elected Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) as the country’s new president, six months since ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol imposed an hours’ long martial law on 3 December 2024. Lee secured 49.4% of the votes cast on 3 June, beating the 41.2% garnered by his rival Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party (PPP). Lee was proclaimed winner by the National Election Commission on Wednesday and will take office immediately, with no transition period. The snap election was called after Yoon’s impeachment. During a speech after his win, Lee pledged to revive the economy and recover people’s livelihoods. Other policy focuses of the new administration include a more balanced foreign policy relationship between China and the US, investments in AI and technology, and a focus on renewable energy, said Michael Wan, analyst at MUFG Global Markets Research, in a note on Wednesday. Also high on the new administration’s agenda will be trade negotiations with the US, a deadline for which has been set for 8 July, right before ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on South Korean goods take effect.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s customs auditors have announced a new five-day “zero clearance period” at the Port of Santos on 2-6 June in which no physical inspections will be carried out, according to a letter to customers by logistics company Unimar seen by ICIS. The action at Santos – Latin America’s largest port – extends a strike started in 2024 which has disrupted logistics for months. The port is a key exit and entry point for some chemicals and a wide range of industrial goods, as well as of fertilizers imports feeding Brazil’s powerful agricultural sector. “Brazil’s Superior Courts have ruled that industrial action cannot entirely paralyze essential public services, such as the clearance of perishable cargo. Judicial intervention may be required to ensure the continuity of critical operations, assessed on a case-by-case basis,” said Unimar’s letter. “Currently, marine terminals at major ports have reported that most cargo is cleared automatically via the system, except for those not classified under the ‘Green Channel.’ Therefore, the strike is expected to primarily impact cargo that requires physical inspections.” Under normal conditions, average clearance times at Santos are five to seven days for imports and one to two days for exports – the action plan up to 6 June may cause delays for cargo requiring physical inspection, while clearance of vessel spare parts at major airports typically takes three to five days. Brazil’s Superior Courts have ruled that industrial action cannot entirely paralyze essential public services, such as clearance of perishable cargo. Judicial intervention may be required to ensure continuity of critical operations on a case-by-case basis. A YEAR-LONG STRIKEThe strike by customs workers, with no sign of resolution in sight, is about to reach one year of duration, some of the longest strikes by civil servants ever seen in Brazil. Smaller strikes started to take place in mid-2024 but then escalated into a comprehensive two-month stoppage. Several rounds of talks between the union representing tax auditors and the government have failed to reach agreement. The union is demanding salary increases and better working conditions, including maintenance and upgrades at ageing customs points across Brazil. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government is attempting to control spending amid investor concerns about the fiscal deficit. Chemicals players have said to ICIS they are increasingly concerned about rising logistics costs, in part due to the strike. The trade group Brazilian Association of Distributors of Chemical and Petrochemical Products (Associquim) warned that companies handling perishable goods or materials requiring quick delivery – pharmaceuticals, food products – are facing particular difficulties. “We have chemical products that have to have a special place for storage, and if too much accumulates in those special storage places, then it will filter down to the end-user, and create a safety problem,” said Associquim president Rubens Medrano earlier this year. NEW SYSTEM DEPLOYMENT AT RISKSomething most logistics players have mentioned and remain a key concern is how the strike could threaten the implementation of Brazil’s New Import Process on the Single Foreign Trade Portal, approved in 2023 to reduce delivery times and costs. The system’s third and most critical phase is due in the second half of 2025. Trade group the Brazilian Machinery Builders’ Association (Abimaq) estimated the new system could save companies Brazilian reais (R) 40bn ($7.07bn) annually when fully implemented, nearly halving delivery times from nine days to five days through increased electronic processing. Meanwhile, the trade group representing chemicals producers Abiquim has equally warned that prolonged strike action could negatively impact the current implementation phase of the import system designed to simplify processes and reduce logistics costs. The Santos Port Authority had not responded to a request for comment at the time of writing. Front page picture: The Port of Santos in Sao Paulo state Picture source: Santos Port Authority  Additional reporting by Sylvia Traganida

LONDON (ICIS)–Gas grid operators on the Trans-Balkan corridor have been working to enable traders to access natural gas via Greek LNG terminals or pipelines for shipments to Ukraine at a unified discounted tariff. The bundled transmission capacity product launched in May could open opportunities for diversification and tightening security of supply. Nevertheless, many traders say the format may not be compliant with EU network codes and insist they had limited information prior to the first auction held in May. As the five TSOs are preparing a new round of auctions, the Greek regulator RAE has started a consultation and companies are expected to submit their views by 9 June 2025. ICIS reporter Aura Sabadus has collected 15 questions from gas traders active regionally and invited Sotirios Bravos (DESFA), Nikola Delev, (Bulgartransgaz), Marius Lupean, (Transgaz), Liviu Duminica, (VMTG) and Andrii Prokofiev (GTSOU) to answer them in detail.

BARCELONA (ICIS)–As chemical producers gain access to more renewable energy and portfolios evolve, distributors and downstream customers can look forward to a growing amount of low carbon, low fossil-content products. Distributors can help communicate sustainability data up and down industrial value chains Full life-cycle analysis required to truly measure a product’s environmental footprint Vital to have standard measurements for carbon footprint Chemical industry has a 25-year innovation cycle, more investment needed to accelerate this Wave of low carbon products expected in next 2-3 years Azelis is sticking to its environmental targets Customers drive demand for more low carbon products Renewable energy will cut fossil content of distributor product portfolios Smaller chemical companies drive low carbon innovation in Asia Reshoring will drive national or regional chemical value chains In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews Michael Heite, group sustainability director for Azelis, John Richardson from the ICIS market development team and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Click here to enter the ICIS Innovation Awards. Closing date 12 June.  Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–There is now 93% of the US corn crop planted with soybeans at 84% completed, according to the latest crop progress report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). For corn, the 93% rate is ahead of the 2024 level of 90% but is equal to the five-year average of 93%. Minnesota and North Carolina are the leading states with 99% of their acreage completed. Corn emergence has climbed to 78% and is above the 72% level from 2024 and the five-year average of 77%. For corn conditions, there is 1% being listed as very poor, 4% as poor and 26% as fair. The crop rated as good is 57%, with 12% still as excellent. Farmers have advanced soybeans plantings to 84%, which is ahead of the 77% rate from 2024 and the five-year average of 80%. Minnesota has 97% of their crop finished, followed by both Louisiana and Iowa at 96%. In the first update on soybean conditions, there is 1% being listed as very poor, 4% as poor and 28% as fair. The crop rated as good is 58%, with 9% as excellent. Cotton plantings have reached 66% and sorghum is now at 46%, with the spring wheat crop 95% completed.

COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado (ICIS)–A clearer picture on the ultimate level of US tariffs could lead to a surge in pent-up demand for chemicals and plastics, said the CEO of Dow. “As we saw with COVID-19, the more people sit on the sidelines, the more there’s a build-up or a pent-up desire to do something… demand is going to come. And when it comes, it tends to bounce back in a big fashion,” said Jim Fitterling, CEO of Dow, in an interview with ICIS. Fitterling spoke to ICIS on the sidelines of the American Chemistry Council (ACC) Annual Meeting. Tariff uncertainty has caused businesses to put projects and other investments on hold, he noted. “At the beginning of this year, I think everybody thought with the new administration [that] 2025 will be better than 2024. But as we sit here at the mid-point of 2025, I don’t think anybody’s predicting a big H2 spike [in demand],” said Fitterling. “It would be crazy for me to try to predict it right now, but if we can get some certainty around the tariffs and what the levels are going to be, and a feeling that ‘this is it’, we can go forward from here. The sentiment will turn more positive, and the markets move on sentiment,” he added. NAVIGATING TARIFFSDow is navigating the tariff environment well through an international trade operations team with decades of experience and great lines of communications in all markets, he noted. “We haven’t seen any dramatic impact on our ability to move product and sell product because of tariffs,” said Fitterling. However, the uncertainty has caused customers to pull back a bit, he added. “But I think more of that has been worked out and things are starting to flow, and you’re starting to see that people are realizing that they’re not just going to be able to absorb these tariffs. They’re going to have to pass along [costs],” said Fitterling. “Some of these costs [are being passed along] and some product is continuing to move. [But] I would say people in general are still very cautious,” he added. The CEO cautioned that while the market may see greater clarity by July after the 90-day pause starting 9 April on higher levels of US reciprocal tariffs comes to an end, it could take longer. DOW PE EXPORTS MOVING ALONGMeanwhile, Dow’s exports of polyethylene (PE) from the US are running well, he said. “Everybody was expecting a big hiccup [in exports] in the month of April, but things moved relatively well. And of course, China never put tariffs on imports of plastics materials, even on the ethane [feedstock],” said Fitterling. On 24 April, an unofficial China proposed tariff exemption list of 131 US products worth around $46 billion, or 28% of total imports, including PE, along with other chemicals and key feedstock ethane, was circulated. Two weeks prior to this, ICIS began picking up on some China PE importers asking for previously canceled US PE orders to be reinstated for June arrival, noted Harrison Jacoby, director of PE at ICIS. “[China] didn’t put any tariffs on those because they need them, for their own manufacturing industry and to make the products that they turn around and re-export. It’s only logical,” he added. Interview article by Joseph Chang Front thumbnail photo of polyethylene pellets (Source: Shutterstock)

LONDON (ICIS)–InterContinental Energy (ICE), developer of the world’s largest planned hydrogen project, could cut the premium of renewable ammonia over carbon-price-adjusted grey ammonia by more than 50%, ICIS data shows. Speaking to ICIS at the World Hydrogen Summit 2025 in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, ICE co-founder and chief executive officer Alexander Tancock explained to ICIS that the company’s large-scale hydrogen projects could produce hydrogen at $3/kg or ammonia at $650/ton. ICE projects are some of the largest renewable energy and hydrogen projects on earth. The company is developing three projects, two in Australia – Australian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH) and Western Green Energy Hub (WGEH) – and one in Oman called Green Energy Oman (GEO). The combined potential hydrogen output from all three projects, once built, would be 8.4 million tons of hydrogen per annum (MTPA), 0.5MTPA more than total hydrogen consumption combined across the EU 27, the UK, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland in 2023, according to the Clean Hydrogen Observatory. CUTTING THE GREEN PREMIUM WITH LOW-COST AMMONIA Taking into account freight costs for Australia to Germany of $155/ton, sourced by ICIS on 28 May, ICE $650/ton renewable ammonia could theoretically land in Europe with a delivered cost of $805/ton. Comparatively, ICIS assessed its carbon-adjusted ammonia (the emissions from grey ammonia are covered by the carbon price) into north-west Europe price at $524/ton on 22 May. The resultant premium of the renewable ammonia production from ICE’s future projects over carbon-adjusted ammonia based on today’s spot market would be $281/ton. Tancock told ICIS that the company intends to produce first molecules by 2032, meaning the premium is likely to change over the next seven years as the ammonia sector adapts to the energy transition – and the EU carbon price potentially rises. However, considering ICE’s renewable ammonia against alternative sources already discussed in the market, the company’s projections offer market participants a new look at the premium sustainable projects could hold as the market develops. Comparatively, in July 2024 H2Global announced the winner of its pilot auction, where Fertiglobe bid a delivered price of renewable ammonia of €1000/ton ($1130/ton). The German H2Global program procures international volumes of hydrogen or hydrogen derivatives with the ambition of re-selling them on the European market. Hintco, the coordinator of H2Global, noted at the time that it anticipates prices to be lower in the future due to supply-chain efficiencies and scaling of the hydrogen market. Fertiglobe deliveries are guaranteed from 2028, around four years ahead of when ICE could produce its first molecules. ACHIEVING LOW COSTS Although Tancock explained that the ammonia production would likely serve the Asian market, the market information is nonetheless a sign of potential cost reductions. Tancock explained several key components behind the projects that ICE is developing which supports lower-cost hydrogen and ammonia. When selecting a location, Tancock said that it would ideally have “lots of wind, lots of sun…ideally wind at night, sunny during the day, because that would then give you a much higher capacity factor… We looked for political stability, a track record of delivering huge infrastructure projects, finance, proximity to markets…the Middle East and Australia [are] markets where all of that comes together”. He said that there are other locations where these things come together, but ICE chose to focus on Australia and the Middle East. “If you look [at] how long it takes to permit a project in Australia, it’s five-to-seven years…Europe, it can be even longer, US as well.” Timing is another key element to reducing costs. “Any large project takes a really long time because of permitting process, design process. The other thing is, there’s a real decline in the cost curve right now of equipment, whether it’s wind, solar or electrolysers.” Tancock believes that the cost curve is slowing for wind and in solar, but that “it’s still quite steep in electrolysers”. Therefore “the ideal time to start bringing on really large projects will be the 2030s, because if you bring them on too early, you’re sort of locked in quite a high cost base”. ICE aims to bring its electricity-generating capacity online ahead of its electrolysers. Tancock explained that ICE will try to sell electricity to local offtakers and that “there should be some announcements later this year about [selling the projects’ power supply]” as two of them are located near to industry, providing energy-intensive offtakers. Another key component of lower-cost hydrogen and ammonia supply is the ICE patented P2(H2)Node system. The ICE nodes operate on the basis of co-locating electrolysis plants with wind and solar, removing the need to either connect to or build electricity transmission lines, and also through removing any losses that come as a result of using high-voltage lines. Reduced infrastructure due to co-location and reduced need for electricity transmission systems account for a 10% reduction in capital expenditure and a 10% increase in efficiency. READY DEMAND AND OFFTAKE STRUCTURES ICE intends to deliver its first electrons before the end of the decade and first molecules potentially in 2032, Tancock said. Supporting such timelines is the clear identification of demand and offtakers. For its ammonia, ICE is considering selling from its WGEH project into markets such as Korea, Japan, Singapore and China, where Tancock noted shipping as a potential offtake sector. However, some of the primary offtake will be local to the projects themselves. “If you look at our two projects in Australia, the northern project is sitting in the Pilbara, which is the world’s biggest iron ore producer. And just to put statistics on that, 800 million tons a year come out of the Pilbara. If we turned all 26GW [of our project’s capacity] into green iron, we would [cover] 4-5% of that…You would need about 600GW to decarbonize the Pilbara.” Similarly, for ICE’s project in Oman, Tancock explained the proximity to Europe as a benefit, but expanded to say that “Oman is currently…a trans-shipment location for iron ore. So, they import iron ore and turn [it] into pellets, which then get exported,” he said. Oman is currently seeking to decarbonize its export iron pellets, which the ICE GEO project could support and sell into. Nonetheless, Tancock noted that offtake is still the key issue for the development of projects. “The technical aspects all bring challenges, but they’re solvable. In that sense, it’s really questions about offtake,” he said. “So it’s about bringing the costs of our energy down, and then discussing with strategic offtakers who are looking to offtake in the 2030s and beyond.” ICE is currently in discussion with potential offtakers, Tancock explained, stating that on the molecule side “we’ll be signing those in 2027, 2028, so we’re working towards those offtakes at the moment”. Project developers speaking to ICIS regularly consider both the duration of offtake agreements and the total percentage of the project’s output that they would sign under a long-term deal. For ICE, Tancock stated that its projects’ output would need to be entirely contracted. “In the moment, I can’t see us doing much merchant. Now, you know, some people will say ‘oh we could do 80% contracted, 20% merchant,’ [but] all [of] that [is] to be seen…But I would anticipate it’ll be 100% allocated.” When discussing duration, Tancock said that the ideal would be “very long term” but that it’s unlikely to be achievable at the moment, although “those are conversations that are ongoing”. Reflecting on contracting, Tancock explained that he believed there is a role for governments to support. “You will see governments come in a little bit to help facilitate some of these earlier offtakers.” “They did it for LNG, they did it for [nuclear power]. They’ve done it for renewables. They’ve done it for oil and gas. So I think you will see that,” he said. “The first LNG shipments were all backed by very long-term offtakes…20-year offtakes.” GOVERNMENT MANDATES Expanding on the role of governments, Tancock highlighted that obligations for renewable or sustainable products were the right direction for the market to go. Discussing renewable energy, Tancock said that this was driven by government demand, penalties etc. However, Tancock noted that “the harder part we have with molecules is molecules tend to be traded a lot…The molecules come from here and they’re there. So that’s the trickier part we’re facing now when we’re trying to introduce green molecules…how do you, on an intra-regional and intercontinental level, manage that flow? Because if the benefits are flowing through to Oman, why would the German taxpayer keep paying?” As a solution, Tancock drew from recent successes with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO), stating “this [the IMO] is a global regulator who’s now put a global tax [on its stakeholders]”, meaning “no country pays, and no country suffers more than anyone else”. For hydrogen and ammonia, “things are happening,” Tancock said, such as the development of green corridors between different countries. “Until we get that, it’s very difficult to see sustained demand in some sectors…IMO is game changing. I think the IMO will show, is showing, that it can be done, but it will take now coordination,” Tancock said.

LONDON (ICIS)–Dow is exiting a carbon fiber and derivates joint venture (JV) with Turkey’s Aksa Akrilik Kimya Sanayii as it continues to focus on core downstream businesses, it said on Monday. The US chemicals producer is selling its 50% stake in DowAksa to its JV partner for an expected $125 million. The sale, which is subject to regulatory approvals and other conditions, is expected to close in the third quarter. “Dow’s decision to exit the joint venture, which was formed in 2012, is consistent with Dow’s best-owner mindset strategy of focusing on its core, high-value downstream businesses,” the company said in a statement.