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Hydrogen11-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Germany’s Federal Ministry for
Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWE) has
reaffirmed its commitment to accelerating the
hydrogen economy, after a spate of recent
industry setbacks including steel manufacturer
ArcelorMittal’s cancellation of its renewable
hydrogen-based decarbonisation plans for two
steel plants.
A spokesperson for the ministry told ICIS on 3
July that BMWE regrets ArcelorMittal’s
cancellation but stressed that it was a private
sector decision and that none of the €1.3
billion government subsidy secured for the
project has been disbursed.
They reiterated the ministry’s support for
other major steel decarbonisation projects by
Salzgitter, Thyssenkrupp, and SHS, which have
collectively secured €5.6 billion in funding.
“Reducing electricity prices in the short term
is key for companies”, the spokesperson added,
welcoming the European Commission’s recent
adoption of the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid
Framework, which provides the possibility to
“reduce electricity prices for energy-intensive
industries”.
Since ArcelorMittal’s announcement, EWE, LEAG
and E.ON have all confirmed to ICIS the
postponement or cancellation of German projects
totalling 80MW capacity of hydrogen production.
However, the BMWE remains committed to the
“swift implementation” of national and European
regulations to enable the growth of the
hydrogen industry.
The spokesperson stated that “the development
of a hydrogen economy is to be accelerated and
organised more pragmatically”, using “all
colours” of hydrogen, while transitioning to
renewable hydrogen in the long-term.
Hydrogen infrastructure expansion, including
connections to all German and European ports,
remains important.
To improve the competitive conditions of the
economy, the ministry wants to “abolish
unnecessary bureaucracy (e.g. Supply Chain
Act)” and “simplify planning and approval
procedures”.
The Supply Chain Act, which entered into force
in 2023, requires companies to exercise due
diligence to prevent or address human rights
and environmental violations within their
supply chains, but has been criticized for the
administrative and cost burden on companies.
The BMWE has recently made moves to simplify
hydrogen bureaucracy. On 7 July, it published a
draft bill for the hydrogen acceleration act,
which aims to “significantly accelerate the
market ramp-up of hydrogen (…) by
establishing fast, simplified, and coordinated
approval procedures with clear specifications
and deadlines”.
As part of the bill, hydrogen projects will be
deemed to be of “overriding public interest”,
which will give them priority in regulatory and
legal balancing decisions.
The spokesperson told ICIS that the status of
the hydrogen ramp-up will be reviewed as a
basis for further work addressing the country’s
energy supply security.
Polyester Staple Fibres11-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Covestro has downgraded its
outlook for 2025 due to an ongoing weak global
economy with no signs of a short-term recovery,
it said on Friday.
The Germany-headquartered polymers producer cut
its forecast for earnings before interest, tax,
depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), as well
as two other key financial metrics.
Covestro outlined its revisions in a statement
released ahead of its second-quarter earnings,
due to be published on 31 July.
The company’s adjusted forecast is as follows:
EBITDA is expected to be between €700
million and €1.1 billion. The previous forecast
projected EBITDA between €1.0 billion and €1.4
billion.
Free operating cash flow (FOCF) is expected
to be between €-400 million and €+100 million.
The previous forecast projected FOCF between €0
million and €300 million.
Return on capital employed over weighted
average cost of capital (ROCE over WACC) is
expected to be between -9 and -5 percentage
points. The previous forecast projected ROCE
over WACC between -6 and -3 percentage points.
Preliminary EBITDA for the second quarter
amounted to €270 million, within the forecast
range €200 million-€300 million, Covestro said.
The producer’s first quarter EBITDA halved year on year
though was at the upper end of its forecast.
Crude Oil11-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–UK economic growth fell for the
second consecutive month in May, driven down by
weak production and construction output.
GDP declined by 0.1% in May following a
decrease of 0.3% in April, the Office for
National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday.
A fall in May production output by 0.9% month
on month was mainly driven by a decline in
manufacturing, which fell by 1.0%.
Construction declined by 0.6% in May, the ONS
said, while the services sector grew by 0.1%.
First-quarter growth
strengthened in the UK from the previous
quarter, although this was recorded before the
announcement of
US trade tariffs, which are likely to be
reflected in future economic data.

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Ammonia11-Jul-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Royal Vopak has signed an
agreement with Japanese heavy-industry firm IHI
Corp to establish a joint venture for the
development and operation of an ammonia
terminal in Japan, the Dutch provider of
storage and infrastructure solutions firm said
on Friday.
The terminal is expected to start operations in
the Japanese fiscal year 2030, it said in a
statement.
“The ammonia terminal development aims to
facilitate the receiving and storing of
imported ammonia within Japan and to facilitate
the establishment of a system for stable supply
of such ammonia in Japan,” Vopak said.
Ammonia is expected to contribute to Japan’s
decarbonization goals through its increased use
as fuel and raw material in power generation
and various industrial uses, it said.
The collaboration focuses on developing a
broader ammonia supply chain in Japan, with the
goal of promoting the various uses of ammonia.
IHI and Vopak also aim to establish an
efficient ammonia distribution system by
utilizing an ammonia terminal with a hub
function for marine transportation.
Vopak, which currently operates six ammonia
storage facilities globally, had signed a
memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Japan’s
IHI in November 2023 to jointly investigate
developing and operating efficient, high
value-added ammonia terminals in Japan.
Ethanol10-Jul-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–A federal appeals court has
vacated the reciprocal switching rule enacted by the
Surface Transportation Board (STB) last year,
saying the agency exceeded its authority.
Reciprocal switching is when a railroad that
has physical access to a specific shipper
facility switches rail traffic to the facility
for another railroad that does not have
physical access.
The second railroad pays compensation to the
railroad that has physical access, typically in
the form of a per car switching charge.
As a result of the arrangement, the shipper
facility gains access to an additional
railroad.
The STB said its rule was a remedy for poor
service.
After the STB approved the rule, three major
railroads – Union Pacific (UP), CSX and CN –
filed a challenge in the court, saying the rule
was unlawful.
The US Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit
said in its decision this week
that the performance standards in the rule were
arbitrary, capricious and unsupported by the
record.
The court granted the petition to vacate the
rule and sent it back to STB for further
action.
The chemical industry has generally been in
favor of reciprocal switching and submitted
statements in favor of the rule.
Jeff Sloan, senior director of regulatory and
scientific affairs at the American Chemistry
Council (ACC), said the ACC was disappointed
with the court’s ruling, but not overwhelmed.
“When the rule was adopted, we felt it was too
limited and would have limited benefits for
chemical shippers,” he said. “But it is still
disappointing that – even if you know this very
limited attempt to increase access to
competitive rail service – has been denied by
the court.”
Sloan said the STB has authority to use
reciprocal switching in two ways – when it is
in the public interest, and when it is
necessary to promote competition.
“We felt the better approach was for the board
to use the tools that Congress gave it to
promote competition more broadly,” Sloan said,
“and I think this decision confirms that.”
The rule was passed under the previous
presidential administration, and Sloan said he
sees nothing that would indicate the current
administration is likely to oppose the rule if
it was based on promoting competition.
“The administration has issued a number of
executive orders on regulations, and they have
asked the agencies to focus on regulations that
are anticompetitive,” Sloan said.
Sloan said it is still too early to predict the
path forward.
“We would strongly urge the board to look at
the options it has to use its statutory
authority to promote competition,” Sloan said.
The chemical industry is one of the largest
users of the freight rail system, and it relies
on efficient, reliable, competitive railroads
to meet its transportation needs.
“When it falls short, it is harmful to US
chemical producers,” Sloan said.
Eric Byer, president and CEO of the Alliance
for Chemical Distribution (ACD), said he
respects the court’s decision while urging the
STB to work toward providing shippers with a
meaningful reciprocal switching remedy.
“The STB’s original goal, to address inadequate
rail service and provide more competitive
access, is both necessary and long overdue,”
Byer said. “In recent years, widespread rail
service challenges have exposed critical
vulnerabilities in the freight system, and the
chemical distribution industry continues to
face the consequences of limited-service
options and poor reliability.”
Railroads are vital to the chemicals industry
as chemical railcar loadings represent about
20% of chemical transportation by tonnage in
the US, with trucks, barges and pipelines
carrying the rest.
Canada-based chemical producers rely on rail to
ship more than 70% of their products, with some
exclusively using rail.
About 80% of Canada’s chemical production goes
into export, with about 80% of those exports
going to the US.
Ethylene10-Jul-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s trade group
representing chemicals producers Abiquim has
expressed concern over US President Donald
Trump’s threat to impose 50%
tariffs on Brazilian exports, calling for
technical dialogue to resolve the dispute.
In a written response to ICIS, Abiquim said the
issue holds major relevance for the chemical
sector, not only due to direct exports to the
US but also because the industry supplies key
inputs to export sectors including food
processing and pulp and paper.
The Brazilian chemical sector runs a
significant trade deficit with the US,
importing approximately $10.4 billion, while
exporting just $2.4 billion in 2024, said
Abiquim.
The resulting trade deficit in favor of the US
stood at $7.9 billion – by volume, the deficit
totaled 6 million tonnes, said Abiquim.
US petrochemicals subsectors such as caustic
soda, polyethylene (PE), or acetic acid, among
many others, export in large numbers
to Brazil and could be greatly affected if
Brazil retaliates to the tariffs in kind.
“The chemical industry advocates treating
international trade relations exclusively on
the basis of mutual economic gain and the free
market, following the rules of the World Trade
Organization (WTO). In a scenario subject to
political interference, we believe that
technical dialogue is the best way to resolve
this issue,” said Abiquim.
“Both sides are at risk of losses, as they are
important markets for each other’s exports.
Therefore, negotiations are necessary to avoid
potential losses for all parties involved.”
Ammonia10-Jul-2025
This summary was created by ICIS hydrogen
editor Jake Stones and ICIS policy and
regulation analyst Aayesha Pathan
UPDATED: This analysis was updated to provide
greater clarity around the total emissions
allowance for low-carbon hydrogen instead of
the emissions reduction required.
LONDON (ICIS)–On 8 July 2025, the European
Commission published its much-awaited delegated
act for low-carbon hydrogen, opening the door
to regulated low-carbon hydrogen production via
natural gas with carbon capture and storage
technology.
ICIS has produced the following summary of the
delegated act and details provided in its annex
as a means of supporting the market.
Biodiesel10-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–The biodiesel market looks
poised for lower supply if UK-based fuels
supplier and distributor Greenergy finalizes
new plans to shut its UK biodiesel site in
Immingham announced on Thursday.
Greenergy began consulting to cease operations
at its biodiesel plant, according to a company
statement. This follows
a strategic review to evaluate the plant’s
commercial viability in May, when production
was halted.
“In light of continuing market pressures, we
unfortunately do not have enough certainty on
the outlook for UK biofuels policy to make the
substantial investments required to create a
competitive operation at Immingham,” Greenergy
said in its statement.
The drop in supply as a result of the plant’s
potential closure may not necessarily ease
market conditions though. This is mainly
because of a steady flow of biodiesel from the
US.
UK biodiesel producers are facing sustained
headwinds, as lackluster domestic demand
collides with a surge in tariff-free imports
from the US and heavily subsidized supplies
from China, further undermining market
competitiveness.
European major Trafigura acquired Greenergy’s
European operations in March 2024.
Greenergy’s CEO, Adam Trager said he was
looking to have “urgent talks” with the
government on a higher quota of biofuels in UK
petrol and diesel consumption. This would
support demand in the biofuels sector, in
particular biodiesel.
Biodiesel, which can be derived from vegetable
oils, animal fats, or other waste-based
bio-feedstocks, is used as fuel in diesel
engines.
Crude Oil10-Jul-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Petrochemicals will remain a key
component of oil demand through to 2050,
according to the latest forecast published by
OPEC on Thursday.
Petchem demand set to rise by 4.7m
barrels/day by 2050
Increasing GDP and non-OECD populations
drive increase
Regulatory, environmental concerns pose
challenges to growth
The World Oil Outlook forecasts that demand
from the petrochemicals sector will
significantly increase, by 4.7 million barrels
a day, from 15.5 million barrels/day in 2024 to
20.2 million barrels/day in 2050.
The sector is set to account for 16% of total
oil demand in 2050, from 14% in 2024, with 90%
of that growth coming from the Middle East and
China as new capacity comes on stream.
Petrochemicals demand for oil will
predominantly be as a feedstock, as more
competitively priced fuels such as natural gas
remain viable alternatives.
While natural gas and biomass are expected to
increase their shares as a source of feedstock,
naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) will
remain more suitable products for many
downstream materials.
Petrochemicals oil demand in the OECD will
likely mirror tight oil production in the US,
which produces LPG and ethane as feedstocks in
that market.
“Accordingly, demand in this sector is expected
to grow until around 2035 and then start a slow
decline for the rest of the forecast period,”
the report said. This would see offtake from
OECD countries reach 7.7 million barrels/day by
2050, close to its level in 2024.
MACRO, DEMOGRAPHIC
DRIVERSOverall demand is driven
by expected GDP growth, rising population and
income levels, and expanding industries and
technologies that these products use, including
renewables, electric vehicles (EVs) and
construction.
“It is assumed, however, that this growth
potential will be partly constrained by
regulations and actions linked to environmental
concerns,” the report advised.
“These relate to commitments to reduce the
sector’s carbon footprint, the push to increase
recycling, restrictions on single-use plastics,
implementing ‘Extended Producer Responsibility’
schemes, an increasing penetration of
bioplastics and improved circularity of
petrochemical products.”
The outlook cautioned that uncertainty
surrounding US trade tariffs could also weigh
on the chemicals market dynamics and downstream
products.
Naphtha demand is expected to grow from 2.8
million barrels/day in 2024 to 3.1 million
barrels/day in 2030 in OECD countries, and
remain around this level for the entire
forecast.
OECD ethane/LPG demand is expected to rise by
more than 600,000 barrels/day in the medium
term before softening, partly as a result of a
decline in petrochemical demand but also on LPG
substitution in other sectors.
The outlook expects aviation to be the only
segment that will show growth over the entire
forecast period, with even this experiencing
some limitations, adding around 1 million
barrels/day between 2024 and 2050.
China remains the dominant country for oil
demand, peaking at 17.7 million boe (barrels of
oil equivalent) a day in 2035, driven by
petrochemical growth and heavy transportation,
but subsiding to 17.1 million boe/day, in part
due to increased EV use.
Oil consumption growth in India is expected to
rise from 400,000 barrels/day in 2024 to 1
million barrels/day in 2050, with naphtha used
as the primary feedstock.
Petrochemical demand from non-OECD countries
will be particularly strong as a result of
population growth and an increasing middle
class. In response, oil consumption is expected
to rise to 12.5 million barrels/day in 2050,
from nearly 8 million barrels/day in 2024 – an
incremental increase of 4.6 million
barrels/day.
Demand for ethane/LPG from non-OECD countries
will increase by more than 4 million
barrels/day between 2024 and 2050, while
naphtha will add another 2.4 million
barrels/day to incremental demand during the
same period.
The global population is predicted to rise by
around 1.5 billion people, from 8.2 billion in
2024 to almost 9.7 billion by 2050, mainly in
non-OECD countries.
MOBILITY TO REMAIN
PIVOTALTransport is set to
remain “the backbone of oil demand” to 2050,
accounting for 57% of global consumption in
2024, and is expected to largely retain this
share over the entire forecast period. This
accounts for both road travel and the aviation
industry.
Overall energy demand is predicted to grow by
23%, with demand for all fuels expected to rise
apart from coal. Oil consumption is expected to
reach 123 million barrels/day by 2050.
Oil will retain the most significant share of
the energy mix, just below 30%, with oil and
gas accounting for over half of demand between
2024 and 2050. The share of renewables is set
to increase by 10 percentage points from 2024,
to 13.5% in 2050.
Chemicals usage is in part attributed to growth
in demand from both segments, as products will
be used for renewables, for instance in
manufacturing photovoltaic panels for solar
energy.
The percentage of oil, gas, and coal in the
energy mix was around 80% in 2024, “only a
little less than when OPEC was founded in 1960,
despite energy consumption increasing more than
five-fold over that time”, the report noted.
Although the long-term forecast is for
increased energy demand, the outlook cautioned
that volatility around the global economy and
energy markets could alter the landscape
quickly.
In 2024 petrochemicals production, along with
growth in the aviation sector, were cited as
the drivers of oil demand, which rose by 1.3
million boe/day compared with 2023, supported
by sustained growth in transport and
residential sectors in developing countries.
This growth was primarily driven by the
continued expansion of the petrochemicals and
aviation sectors, as well as sustained growth
in road transportation and residential sectors
in developing countries.
Focus article by Morgan
Condon
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