COLORADO SPRINGS, Colorado (ICIS)–Employment in the US chemical industry will continue growing even while it contends with a wave of retirements, the consultancy Deloitte said. CHEM EMPLOYEES NEEDED FOR GROWING INDUSTRYThe chemical industry grows at a multiple of GDP. As the global economy grows, so will the chemical industry, and that will require companies to hire employees, said Bob Kumpf, managing director at Deloitte. “Society expects us to innovate, whether it’s emerging technologies, whether it’s biotechnology, whether it’s all the downstream applications,” Kumpf said. “This is a growth sector.” Kumpf and others at Deloitte discussed a recent employment study by the consultancy during the annual meeting of the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Even if the nature of growth in the chemical industry is changing, it is not stopping, he said. “There is no peak materials in any views that we have.” While new technologies like AI and remote work are changing how people do their jobs, those technologies are not eliminating the need for labor. The following chart summarizes Deloitte’s forecasts for US employment trends in the oil and gas (O&G) industry as well as in the chemicals industry. Chemical companies will have to manage that growth in employment amid a wave of retirements. Deloitte expects that 20% of the current workforce will retire by 2030, said Kate Hardin, executive director at Deloitte. Deloitte broke down management strategies into four pillars consisting of talent ownership, composition, capability and mobility. TALENT OWNERSHIPChemical companies are relying on third-parties to manage digital upgrades and information technology services, while maintaining nearly 88% of its workforce as internal. COMPOSITIONThe study shows that chemical employment will rise in the following sectors: Site and plant workers Specialists and technicians Business support Customer engagement Leadership Among site and plant workers in the energy and chemicals industry, Deloitte expects rising global demand, regulatory changes and infrastructure will contribute to rising demand for these employees. For specialists and technicians, growth drivers are occupational health and safety, industrial engineers and material engineers. The study forecasts declines in chemical engineers. In the past, those chemical engineers had left for jobs in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, Hardin said. More recently, they are going into software development. For business support, employment growth will center around computer occupations, computer network architecture and training and development specialties. Overall, automation, outsourcing and AI will reduce employment for some job types. CAPABILITYDeloitte expects generative and agentic AI to make employees more productive. The consultancy broke down AI’s effects on employment into human-in-the-loop tasks, human-enabled tasks and human-exclusive tasks. For energy and chemical workhours as a whole, about one-third are expected to be human-in-the-loop tasks, in which machines and agentic AI lead the effort. Another third will be human enabled, under which humans augment digital technologies. The rest will be human exclusive, which covers tasks only people can do. For some of these human-exclusive tasks, there could be prolonged vacancies, especially for occupations such as mechanics, repairers and vehicle operators, according to the study. These jobs have high turnover, and chemical companies will compete with construction and other industrial sectors for these workers. MOBILITYDigitization is making more skills common among industries and sectors, giving employees and employers a wider pool from which to choose. Some chemical jobs can be remote, but a robust on-site workforce remains essential for running chemical plants. WORKFORCE AMONG FEW TOOLS CHEMS HAVE IN CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENTOnce more, chemical companies expect 2025 to be another challenging year in which they will need to look internally to increase revenue and profits. The overall economy will provide little – if any – help. At the same time, trade policy is changing and conflicts among nations are growing, all of which is making it difficult to plan and forecast demand. Workforce is one of the few areas chemical companies can control, and technology changes in AI and robotics are giving companies more options to reduce labor costs and increase productivity. The ACC Annual Meeting ended on 4 June.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Grupo Almatia continues seeking expansions outside its Colombian domestic market as the medium-term economic prospects and the government’s fiscal policy cast a shadow, according to the CFO at the chemicals distributor, formerly known as Quimico Plasticos. Jose Andres Toro added his voice to the many which, in the past week, have showed great concern about Colombia’s government decision to exercise an “escape” clause which allows for the so-called fiscal rule to be lifted in extraordinary circumstances. In a pre-election year and with the public finances offering little margin for the left-leaning government of Gustavo Petro to fulfill its promises to expand the welfare state, the cabinet has now decided to exercise a rule which is meant to be used in public emergencies or calamities. Chemicals sources and industrial groups have said companies’ borrowing costs could rise sharply if those costs for Colombia’s sovereign also rise, as expected, while the trade group representing plastics, Acoplastics, said in an interview with ICIS the fiscal issues were coming to add issues to an industry already under pressure due to China’s competition. But Almatia’s CFO described frustration with government spending increases because, in theory, they should have improved public services but, he said, that the spending programs have been unable to deliver tangible benefits to citizens. “It’s already proven it’s not making social investments. It’s not doing anything with that money; instead, what it’s doing is creating bureaucracy, creating jobs in the public sector,” said Toro. “In the province where we are based, Antioquia, the situation has become particularly acute. National projects with state funding have been abandoned by the government and we Antioquians reached into our pockets and are financing the projects ourselves, with our own resources, through the provincial government.” Beyond fiscal concerns, the company faces challenges from inflation and dramatically rising transportation costs affecting grassroots workers, said Toro, highlighting how gasoline subsidy removals have pushed fuel prices up by approximately 50%, far outpacing general inflation rates of 5-7%. “Transportation costs have risen much more than the average inflation rate because the government began to remove a subsidy that gasoline used to have. For someone who travels every day on the subway or the bus, those costs are multiplied,” he said. “With domestic growth stagnating at 2-3% annually, while inflation runs at around 5%, real economic performance is declining. In real terms, we’re not growing. We’re stagnant,” he said. Toro said a good example of Colombia’s issues would be the construction sector, where the downturn has proved especially acute, casting a shadow to the rest of the economy given that real estate is a sector of sectors, with many associated industries depending on it, not least the many plastics which Almatia sells to be used in multiple applications going into construction. Facing domestic market challenges, Grupo Almatia is slowly but decisively pursuing expansions across Latin American countries, said Toro. For now, the company has set up operations in markets close to Colombia because the majority of its facilities are there, and from them it delivers to other markets such as Ecuador, Peru, Guatemala and the Dominican Republic. CHINA COMPETITION: GOOD OR BAD?The executive detailed how Chinese suppliers have become increasingly competitive across chemical markets, though not to the exclusion of other international competitors, and conceded many of Almatia’s materials come from that country. China has been under fire for some time due to its “dumping” – selling industrial products at below production costs in overseas markets, just to dump excess products China does not need, which has hit producers hard in other, non-state-controlled economies which cannot compete with China’s heavily subsidized companies. “We’ve been working with several suppliers for several years, and they compete here like any other, like the Koreans, the Americans, the Arabs. For instance, in TiO2 [titanium dioxide], Chinese pricing remains competitive against Western suppliers without creating insurmountable advantages [for the Chinese],” said Toro. “Chinese prices are competitive compared to those coming from outside the West, but they’re not so markedly different that those from the West can’t compete. We import from 20 countries, and obviously prioritize the most competitive supply sources.” All in all, Toro conceded there are concerning price dynamics taking place currently in the petrochemicals industry, dynamics which could end up hitting all sides of the market if not corrected. “In PP [polypropylene] markets, for instance, monomer prices around $750-770/tonne should theoretically support resin prices near $980-990/tonne in regional markets,” said Toro. “However, freight and production costs don’t support these economics, suggesting either advantageous raw material sourcing or unsustainable pricing. And this pricing pressure affects non-integrated PP producers globally.” This interview took place on 16 June. Front page picture: A warehouse operated by Grupo Almatia in Antioquia, Colombia  Picture source: Grupo Almatia  Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

Auction for Route 1 capacity from Greece to Ukraine held on 23 June Regulator RAE expected to approve Greek VTP entry to ensure fair access terms Vertical Corridor will be long-term diversification solution for SEE LONDON (ICIS)– Traders expecting to export gas from Greece to Ukraine as part of a superbundled capacity product may be able to secure volumes from the domestic virtual trading point (VTP) rather than restricted entry points, Maria Rita Galli, CEO of the Greek gas transmission system operator, DESFA told ICIS in an interview. She said the five TSOs offering the product were looking to offer maximum flexibility on Route 1, as the bundled discounted capacity product spanning five south-east European countries will be offered for monthly auctions on the Regional Booking Platform (RBP) on 23 June. The CEO said she anticipated high interest, as over 200 stakeholders took part in a call with the five operators from Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine on 19 June. The capacity will be offered at a discounted rate on a temporary basis and companies could secure up to 90 million cubic meters monthly from Greece for exports to Ukraine. ROUTE 1 INCENTIVES The product excludes entry or exit into networks along the route, which allows them to bypass issues related to misalignment of gas quality among the five countries, which had been blocking companies from exporting gas from the Romanian VTP to Ukraine, for example. A regional trader told ICIS that under the Route 1 product, companies will not be expected to request a licence to use the Romanian transmission system. “For the first time in the history of post-Russian gas flows via Romania, Transgaz [the Romanian gas grid operator] does not require shippers to get a licence for transit,” the trader said. Although the route from Greece to Ukraine has large bidirectional capacity, it has been largely unused because of limited capacity offered by some operators and high transmission tariffs. A study published by Austrian-based consultancy WECOM on 19 June shows that it currently costs on average €9.65/MWh to book capacity at individual borders points along the Greece-Ukraine route. However, market sources say the bundled discounted Route 1 could cost around €7.5 – €8.00/MWh. CONCERNS Despite the attraction of cheaper tariffs, some companies had concerns the product may not be compliant with the provisions of the EU’s network codes. However, Sotirios Bravos, Desfa’s Chief Commercial Officer, said the arrangement was not a derogation from the codes but came ‘on top’ of their provisions. He said the volumes that would be auctioned would be relatively small and would not impinge on regional competition. “Ukraine needs additional volumes to fill their underground storage estimated between four to five billion cubic meters by the start of the heating season,” Bravos said. “If we look at other borders [with Ukraine] we see the capacity is oversubscribed. The quarterly capacity for July, August, September on the Hungarian-Ukrainian border was 400% higher than its reserve price,” he added. FAIR PLAYING FIELD He echoed the CEO’s views that the product would not discriminate against companies, and added that access to the Greek VTP, subject to pending approval by the regulator RAE this week, would create a level playing field for all participants. In the initial proposal, Route 1 restricted access to only a number of entry points in the domestic Greek system, which would have ensured that the gas shipped to Ukraine was of non-Russian origin. The EU is now working to introduce a ban on the import of spot and long-term Russian gas between 2026 and 2028. Galli said: “We are not in 2026 yet. I think when the ban is operational there will be no Russian gas on the VTP. As of today, we cannot physically exclude it,” she added. She said Greece was expecting to boost its interconnection capacity from 5.3billion cubic meters annual to 8.5bcm/year at the end of 2026. Nevertheless, Greece is set to make a major contribution to regional supply diversification thanks to its LNG terminals at Revithousa and Alexandroupolis as well as access to Caspian gas reaching the country via the Southern Gas Corridor. Although Route 1 is initially expected to be offered on a temporary basis to help Ukraine meet its storage needs this summer, Galli expects the full Trans-Balkan route, also known as the Vertical Gas Corridor, to become the backbone of an integrated south-east European gas market in the longer-term.

LONDON (ICIS)–The European Parliament and Council have provisionally agreed changes to simplify the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). The streamlined regulation adopts a new “de minimis” mass threshold of 50 tonnes, which will exempt most importers who import only small quantities of CBAM goods, such as SMEs and individuals. At the same time, environmental objectives would remain achievable because 99% of total CO2 emissions from imports of iron, steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizers would still be covered by the rules. MEPs voted in favour of the new CBAM regulation in May and it was provisionally agreed between the European Parliament and Council on Wednesday this week, 18 June. The European Parliament and Council must now formally adopt the package before it can enter into force, which would be 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the EU.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The global polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is poised for a significant supply surplus, primarily driven by a surge in Chinese exports and an increasingly protectionist international trade environment, an industry analyst said on Thursday. Chinese exports, protectionism drive market imbalance US PVC exports face mounting headwinds Industry needs rationalization of supply This confluence of factors is depressing prices and pushing profitability to unsustainable lows for many producers, Kelly Coutu, director of PVC at ICIS told delegates at the 28th ICIS & ResourceWise World Chlor-Alkali Conference in Singapore, which runs on 19-20 June. The critical imbalance between robust supply and weakening global demand, exacerbated by a wave of antidumping duties (ADDs), is “clouding the decision to make some type of correction on the supply side so that economics can actually win”, Coutu said. US PVC EXPORTS FACE MOUNTING HEADWINDS The US, traditionally a key PVC exporter, is grappling with a dramatically altered trade landscape, according to Coutu. For years, particularly after the 2008 housing crisis, US producers leveraged their domestic oversupply to become significant global suppliers. However, the dynamics have shifted considerably. During the coronavirus pandemic, unexpected do-it-yourself (DIY) demand temporarily boosted PVC consumption. But consecutive record-breaking hurricane seasons and a severe winter storm crippled US production, forcing a retreat from export markets. This void was swiftly filled by China, which, facing its own real estate crisis and declining domestic demand, has aggressively ramped up PVC exports. “We now have two kind of powerhouses in terms of supply being put into the market, and it can’t be absorbed,” Coutu highlighted. Data for the first four months of 2025 indicate China is on pace to significantly outpace the US in total PVC exports. ADDs RESHAPE TRADE FLOWSA slew of ADDs targeting US PVC clearly indicates a rising inclination to shield domestic companies from international competition. Several key markets have initiated measures to protect their domestic industries: Europe and UK: Traditional European markets are largely closing off to US PVC, with ADDs effectively curtailing imports. Brazil: A recent surge in duties from 8.2% to 43.7% makes exporting to Brazil “very challenging” for US producers, Coutu noted. This is particularly troubling as Central Latin America was the second-largest region for US PVC exports. India: While facing duties ranging from 15% to 50%, Coutu believes some US producers “will be able to compete better than others” depending on individual cost structures. Mexico: The outcome of Mexico’s antidumping investigation is crucial. Coutu suggested that if Mexico is “looking at the data, I would say yes to a finding similar to Colombia’s [no antidumping finding]”. However, a different outcome “could be quite troubling for the US, because Mexico is the second largest country for US exports.” These duties have already begun to shift trade patterns in 2025, with US exports declining in Europe and Asia, while increasing in Latin America (pre-Brazil duty hikes) and the Middle East and Africa, as producers seek new homes for their product, according to Coutu. PROFITABILITY UNDER PRESSURE Integrated producers in the EU and Asia face 20% to 30% higher total costs compared to the US, primarily due to natural gas and electricity prices. However, even with a cost advantage, US producers are struggling. Coutu emphasized that current global spot prices for PVC (US Gulf, Northwest Europe, and Northeast Asian) are below the cost of production for many. While co-product credits from caustic soda production offer some relief – with a “40% improvement in caustic soda values” helping the industry – the overall profitability across the chain remains unsustainable. The only recent “blip” of profitability was a short-lived freight arbitrage opportunity created by Red Sea disruption. For nearly two years, global PVC prices have been “extremely low”, said Coutu, with no clear signs of improvement. SUPPLY RATIONALIZATION The core issue facing the PVC industry is a fundamental imbalance between supply and demand. “This industry needs rationalization of supply,” Coutu asserted, noting that global PVC supply is simply too great for current demand. Expansions in China, the Middle East, and India are adding significant capacity, even as global growth projections do not support such increases. China, now seen as the “global price center”, continues to expand its capacity. The June 24 deadline for the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) certification could further disrupt trade flows, potentially displacing a “large volume of PVC that will need to find a home” if Chinese products are unable to meet the new standards, according to Coutu. Coutu believes this could create an opportunity for US producers that have completed the necessary paperwork and audits to “take up some of that slack that China may not be able to step into”. A NEW PARADIGM FOR US PRODUCERS The US PVC industry, historically an accidental exporter, needs to fundamentally rethink its strategy, Coutu said. Many producers, lacking dedicated global sales forces, rely heavily on traders for market access – a vulnerability exposed by the rise of ADDs as their dependence on traders limits pricing control and access to the granular market data essential for effectively defending against dumping allegations. Domestic PVC demand in the US is not poor, with “8% growth in PVC demand in 2024”, Coutu said. However, the domestic market is not large enough to absorb the existing production footprint. “They have to rethink what they’re doing,” Coutu said. The current environment is forcing the industry into a “great big game of chicken, and who’s gonna blink first?” Coutu said. Coutu added the health of the global PVC industry hinges on producers acknowledging that “basic economics of supply and demand do matter, and that’s the fundamental over everything that’s going on in this industry”. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Thumbnail shows pipe made out of PVC. Image by Shutterstock. 

LONDON (ICIS)–Renewable methyl 9-decenoate (9-DAME), to be produced at Verbio’s upcoming ethenolysis plant in Germany, could be an opportunity for the oleochemicals industry, a Verbio executive told ICIS. With 9-DAME, the industry could access palm-free C10 derivatives in consumer products that are typically derived from palm kernel oil (PKO), Marc Siegel, Verbio’s head of sales, Specialty Chemicals and Catalysts, said in an interview. “9-DAME chemicals could offer alternatives for an important fraction in the oleochem industry,” he added. Verbio’s plant at the Bitterfeld chemical site in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt state is expected to start up in 2026, using rapeseed oil methyl ester as feedstock, It will have capacities for 32,000 tonnes/year of methyl 9-decenoate (9-DAME), and for 17,000 tonnes/year of 1-decene. 9-DAME is a valuable platform molecule enabling a multitude of products, Siegel said. It will enable customers to produce C10 fatty acids or alcohols, allowing them to make their own C10 derivatives with high purity, he said. As such, Verbio’s production capacity of 32,000 tonnes/year of 9-DAME could replace PKO and “represents significant potential in the oleochemicals industry for the C10 value chain”, he said. PKO, for its part, is controversial because of the environmental impacts of palm oil plantations, Siegel said. Furthermore, the availability of PKO is limited globally at about 6.2 million tonnes/year, and its C10 content is only about 3-3.5%, he said. By using 9-DAME to make C10 fatty acids or alcohols, customers would avoid the complex supply chains of PKO from Asia, with its price fluctuations. They would also reduce their carbon footprint, and they could put palm-free and GMO-free labels on their shampoos and other products, he said. Siegel added that coconut oil is another source of C10 derivatives. However, coconut oil is typically more expensive than PKO, and its global production volumes are lower, he said. Asked about 9-DAME pricing, Siegel said: “We feel to have a solid position in the market with attractive pricing” and “strong unique selling propositions”, including palm-free claims and regional European sourcing. As Verbio’s project is nearing completion, the environment for renewable chemicals and recycling has become challenging in North America whereas in Europe “there are many positive examples” of new projects for bio-based chemicals, supported by the European Green Deal and other regulations, Siegel said. “Verbio remains positive about increasing demand [for renewable chemicals] in Europe and other regions,” he said. “Many European projects continue to thrive”, he added. In North America, however, the situation is “less dynamic”, with some companies scaling back operations (Origin Materials in Canada) or facing funding losses (Eastman in Texas), Siegel noted. Verbio’s ethenolysis plant under construction at Bitterfeld, Germany; Source: Verbio

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Bank Indonesia (BI) maintained its key interest rate – the seven-day reverse repurchase rate – steady at 5.50% on 18 June, pausing its monetary easing stance as it prioritizes currency stability. The central bank also left overnight deposit and lending rates unchanged at 4.75% and 6.25%, respectively, citing global economic conditions and rupiah (Rp) safeguarding. Firm interest rates lend support to currencies. Nonetheless, Indonesia’s central bank hinted at rate cuts later this year to boost economic growth amid tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. Indonesia is southeast Asia’s biggest economy and is a major importer of petrochemicals amid strong demand and limited local production. The country is expected to post a GDP growth of 4.6-5.4% this year, according to BI’s forecasts. “At home, economic growth in Indonesia must be strengthened constantly against a backdrop of global uncertainty caused by US tariff policy and geopolitical tensions,” the central bank stated. “Economic activity in the second quarter of 2025 indicated improvements in terms of non-oil and gas export performance due to the frontloading of exports bound for the US as an anticipatory response by exporters to US tariff policy,” it added. Household consumption and investment must be strengthened as sources of economic growth, the central bank said. “We believe the macro environment remains well-positioned for BI to cut rates later this year to support economic growth, following a slowdown in first quarter GDP to 4.9% year-on-year, down from 5.0% in the previous quarter,” Dutch banking and financial service firm ING said in a research note. “The deceleration was primarily driven by weaker investment activity, reflecting heightened uncertainty surrounding tariff policies,” it said. The government’s $1.5 billion worth stimulus may help stabilize consumption in the near term but is unlikely to spur a meaningful recovery in capital expenditure, ING noted. “Looking ahead, while the sustainability of large inflows into Indonesian bonds remains uncertain due to persistent fiscal risks, the broader USD ($) weakening trend should offer support,” it said. “In this context, BI may use windows of currency strength to cut rates more opportunistically,” ING said. ($1 = Rs16,382) Additional reporting by Pearl Bantillo Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–The global petrochemicals downturn could potentially stretch to 2028, but the years-long crisis due to overcapacities may leave a lasting mark – lower for longer margins, according to a chemicals analyst at credit rating agency Fitch. Marcelo Pappiani, Fitch’s main analyst for Brazil’s petrochemicals, said that potentially lower spreads post-crisis, compared to the averages prior to the current downturn, could have deep financial implications for petrochemicals companies and their ability to borrow and/or invest. The analyst reminded how he started covering Brazil’s chemicals for Fitch in 2022 – at the time, the nascent downturn was expected to be a traditional downcycle lasting around two years, three at most. In an interview with ICIS in 2023, the analyst said the downturn could last to 2025. In another interview in 2024, he did not want to put an end date to what was already looking like a half-decade-long crisis, and warned that despite protectionist measures in Brazil, chemicals producers were far from being out of the woods. MARGINS LONG TERMFast forwarding to current times, Fitch is forecasting the downturn to last until 2028 as China’s relentless start-up of new capacities, while not having the domestic demand for them, will continue putting Chinese products in all corners of the world at very competitive prices. “We now expect the downcycle to last a bit longer, probably until 2028, because we are still seeing and probably will continue to see for a while some prices at the bottom. I have heard some industry players put the end to the downturn in 2030 – we will need to see, but indeed the end date for it has had to be pushed back several times already,” said Pappiani. “This is the most prolonged downcycle most companies have been through. And what we are trying to figure out here is, upon recovery, when spreads return to mid-cycle, are they going to be at the same level they were before?” The analyst went on to explain his theory by looking at a key financial metric in a company’s performance: the ratio earnings/debt. The higher the ratio, the more effort a company needs to focus on deleveraging; therefore, capital expenditure (capex) and other long-term productivity measures can suffer. “Post-crisis, are companies expecting to have the same levels of earnings and leverage than they were running before this turmoil? This is the million-dollar question. Those metrics will eventually recover from the current crisis-hit numbers, but I doubt it will be at the same levels as before. Some companies still think the market will recover to where it was: I don’t seem to agree much, but let’s see.” HOW TO DEAL WITH CHINAThe current downturn, closely linked to China’s state-driven economic policies, presents companies from market economies with many challenges they have not been able to overcome yet. The situation which has brought the petrochemicals industry to its knees is clear. China’s state-supported companies are just producing for the sake of employment and social stability – so the system does not feel threatened – over profitability, which is what drives competitors in most other countries.  “The market is always saying about how companies need to rationalize – shut down plants that are not profitable and the likes. But what’s rational for us here in the West might not be rational for people in China, where they are more concerned about employment, for instance,” said Pappiani. “But the point is that the amount of rationalization we have already seen hasn’t been enough to compensate for this oversupply. Meanwhile, domestically, the Chinese government doesn’t seem to be concerned too concerned today about that [high levels of indebtedness and the burden that will put on future generations of Chinese citizens].” Pappiani went on to say that long term, the petrochemicals sector will eventually balance out simply because the world’s growing population will continue devouring plastics and petrochemicals-derived materials. “Despite the current overcapacity challenges, plastics and chemical products will remain fundamental to the global economy. Together with ammonia for agriculture, cement for construction, and crude oil, plastic resins rank among the world’s most critical materials,” said the Fitch analyst. “This structural dependency on plastic materials continues growing and seems set to continue doing so, despite sustainability concerns and as environmental considerations gain prominence.” Front page picture source: Fitch Interview article by Jonathan Lopez

US investors in talks to overturn sanctions related to Russian gas supply corridors Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 corridors would theoretically displace 110 billion cubic meters of alternative gas supplies Talks continue, but significant political, regulatory, technical hurdles remain LONDON (ICIS)–High-profile investors with links to US president Donald Trump’s family have been in talks to lift US sanctions against the Nord Stream corridor while snapping up stakes in other pipeline networks used to ship Russian gas to Europe, four sources familiar with discussions told ICIS. The talks follow reports last month that the owners of Nord Stream 2 AG, a Swiss-registered company overseeing the construction and operation of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, had reached a deal to restructure its debt and pay small-scale creditors. Bringing Nord Stream into operation would entail clearing significant political, regulatory and technical hurdles. Despite this, sources close to the EU and US Congress interviewed by ICIS say investors are positioning themselves for a post-war scenario where a settlement agreement is reached for Ukraine and Russian gas exports to return. Three of the four subsea Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Germany were damaged in 2022 and would need heavy repairs to be brought back into use. The fourth line, built as part of Nord Stream 2, is thought to be intact but would require maintenance before becoming operational. The resumption of full flows on the four Nord Stream pipelines would displace as much as 110 billion cubic meters of alternative gas supplies and eliminate the need for other Nordic, Baltic or southern European transport routes to emerge. US sanctions introduced five years ago ban individuals from selling, leasing or providing vessels engaging in pipe-laying or services to the Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream 2 pipelines. Yet sources say Stephen Lynch, a Republican donor and Miami-based investor with experience in acquiring distressed Russian assets, had paid off the Nord Stream debt and was actively lobbying European and US policymakers for the lifting of sanctions. INTERMEDIARIES One of the individuals Lynch has been in talks with is Texas businessman Gentry Beach, all sources confirmed. Beach has links to the US president’s son, Donald Trump Jr. Beach himself has been in touch with Romanian offshore logistics company GSP Offshore with a view to bringing Nord Stream back into use one, sources in the EU and US said. The company has provided drilling and support services to Gazprom in the past but is currently facing financial problems after racking up debt, according to company documents seen by ICIS. GSP Offshore did not respond to questions from ICIS. BULGARIAN LINK Gentry Beach’s name also recently surfaced in talks related to the acquisition of a stake in Bulgaria’s gas transmission infrastructure, which connects to TurkStream2 and is used for the transport of Russian gas to central Europe, according to two EU sources familiar with discussions. They explained Beach had been in contact with Bulgarian gas grid operator Bulgartransgaz after Elliott Investment Management, a US hedge fund managing over $70bn in assets, pulled out less than a month after signalling interest in acquiring a stake. Lynch and Beach did not reply to questions from ICIS. Bulgartransgaz did not reply to questions. A spokeswoman for Elliott Investment Management confirmed the company had had some preliminary discussions in Bulgaria but eventually decided to “pass on this”. LIFTING SANCTIONS The resumption of gas flows via Nord Stream 2 would hinge on the US Treasury lifting sanctions, persuading the EU that US ownership would guarantee compliance with a looming ban on Russian fossil fuel imports and lobbying German policymakers to unfreeze the certification of Nord Stream 2. Investors might find it challenging to meet these goals, the sources said. The two Nord Stream 2 pipelines, with a combined capacity of 55 billion cubic meters/year, were sanctioned in the US under the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act (PEESA) and the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Clarification Act (PEESCA). Three of the four sources interviewed by ICIS confirmed Lynch had lobbied the Biden administration to remove the sanctions. Although these were not removed under the previous administration, they included a five-year sunset clause which meant they lapsed at the end of 2024. Even though Congress did not extend them under PEESA and PEESCA, they were renewed under a broader executive order authorising sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The sanctions are now in place as part of the catch-all executive order but they would be easier to overturn than if they had been extended under PEESA and PEESCA. All four sources interviewed by ICIS remain sceptical US president Donald Trump would be willing to scrap them, given his long-running opposition to the project. GERMANY All sources interviewed by ICIS said Lynch had been actively lobbying German policymakers to approve Nord Stream 2, certification of which was halted when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Even if a strong support base in Germany may exist among some policymakers, it would still be difficult to persuade the EU that imports via Nord Stream were fully compliant with the EU Russian gas import ban. The European Commission has introduced a set of proposals aimed at fully phasing out Russian fossil fuels by 2028 and has pitched a raft of tough transparency measures designed to enforce the ban.