HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for chemical tankers ex-US Gulf soared this week on most trade lanes assessed by ICIS, as they continue to face upward pressure. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to pressure freight rates globally to climb higher.  Most players are now challenged with considering whether to reposition vessels or their cargoes if even at all possible. Most participants seem to be focused on current contract of affreightment (COA) volumes and any remaining space availability. Longer term, players remain uncertain on future contract agreements pending the outcome of the Middle East conflict, leaving most charterers opting to take a wait-and-see approach. On the other hand, owners are focused on limiting COA volumes to free up any space for spot volumes. Overall, it was a slow week as many industry players are preparing to attend the upcoming AFPM conference in San Antonio, Texas. As a result, there were very few fixtures seen in the market, mainly due to the lack of available space. On the USG-Brazil trade lane, this market has been completely dependent on COA volumes to keep steady employment. The spot market remains quiet mainly due to the lack of open space, leaving most charterers focused on their regular contractual volumes. Once again larger parcels of ethanol and monoethylene glycol (MEG) have been frequently indicated in the market for April loadings. Similarly, rates from the USG to ARA have jumped due to higher bunker fuel prices and extremely limited open space, leaving rates virtually unrealistic for charterers. However, most charterers have been reported to be moving smaller parcels of various products such as vinyl acetate monomer (VAM), MEG, lube oils and phenol by utilizing their COA vessels. The USG-Asia is no different than other trades lanes as most regular owners have very limited space with only pockets available for the balance of April and whatever is available seems to be ready for the highest bidder. As result rates have increased as most of the cargoes seem to be moving under COAs. There still seems to be inquiries for methanol, MEG, and various chemicals as more and more plants in the region are reducing production and declaring force majeure. On the USG-to-India route, seems to be keeping less interest in offering into the region due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. As a result, spot rates seem to be pressured higher as owners are offering unrealistic levels and mainly focused on steady COA volumes. Bunker prices are pressuring freight rates higher, as the price fluctuation is causing the markets to firm globally. Several owners are considering adding a bunker escalating clause into transactions or simply raise rates to cover the costs. A participant in the styrene market told ICIS that rates to Europe have surged to $140-150/tonne for 5,000-tonne parcels (roughly double the normal $70/tonne rate), while freight to Asia remains lower at approximately $70/tonne for 10,000-tonne parcels. The elevated costs to Europe are effectively restricting export flows despite favorable market conditions. CONTAINER RATES Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US were mostly higher this week and are now up by about 15-20% from levels seen prior to the Iran war. Rates from supply chain advisors Drewry were up by 4% from Shanghai to Los Angeles this week and up by 3% from Shanghai to New York, as shown in the following chart. Drewry said that as ongoing tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt fuel supply and create uncertainty across global supply chains, they expect spot rates to increase in the coming weeks. Rates at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos rose by 3% to the West Coast and by 4% to the East Coast and are up by about 15% since the war started. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said rates are facing upward pressure across all lanes on fuel surcharges and general rate increases (GRIs) set for 1 April. “But there are some signs of pushback against the Strait of Hormuz closure driving rates up too far on non-impacted lanes,” Levine said. Levine said carriers are also challenged by soft demand entering what would be the typical slow season. ‘Rate behavior in the next few weeks then should reflect which rate increases carriers try to introduce, and their degrees of success,” Levine said. Lars Jensen, president of consultant Vespucci Maritime, said for the two major deep-sea trades, the spot rate impact of the crisis is quite modest and in broad strokes mainly match the new emergency fuel surcharges. Shipping market intelligence firm Linerlytica said the container market is adjusting to the extended shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz with carriers re-establishing intra-Gulf feeders and India-Northern UAE/Oman services to maintain cargo flow to the Gulf region. Linerlytica said it is seeing rates starting to ease across the board as the initial impact on ships delayed by the Middle East disruptions are offset by the redeployment of surplus ships displaced from their regular Persian Gulf deployment into new routes to fill in for the delayed ships. Linerlytica said capacity utilization across all key trade lanes remain well below the level needed to support the carriers’ announced rate hikes, forcing the mid-March rate hikes to be rolled back. “Initial feedback on the new transpacific contracts that have been concluded suggest that rates have mostly been maintained at last year’s levels but will be subject to higher bunker surcharges,” Linerlytica said. Rates on the New York Shipping Exchange Freight Index (NYFI) rose by 2.2% to the West Coast this week and by 4.5% to the East Coast while rates on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks rates for containers leaving Shanghai, rose by 7%. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. Image: Chemical tankers. (Image source: Shutterstock) Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

Trump extends deadline for Iran to respond to ceasefire proposal Freight rates continue to surge as Strait of Hormuz remains shut US oil rig count down by five to 409 – Baker Hughes LONDON (ICIS)–Crude benchmarks continued to climb on 27 March amid growing concerns of escalation in the Middle East. Oil prices were on track for the first weekly decline since the onset of the war in the Middle East, until a late rally, as the market assessed the likelihood of a US-Iran ceasefire amid ongoing negotiations. ICIS Senior Oil Analyst David Jorbenaze stated, “Brent remains elevated, hovering around the $110/barrel mark, as markets react to conflicting signals from the US and Iran on potential de-escalation. The US is pushing diplomacy to reopen Hormuz, while Iran rejects talks, keeping volatility elevated.” US President Donald Trump has extended the deadline for Iran to respond to the US’s 15-point peace deal, extending with it its promise to avoid attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. US demands are reported to include the dismantling of Tehran’s ballistic missile program and halting efforts to enrich nuclear material. Investors remain skeptical regarding the progress of these peace negotiations as the US sent thousands of troops to the Middle East, raising concerns of escalation. Reports Trump could be considering seizing Iran’s strategic oil hub of Kharg Island fueled concerns of further supply disruption. Freight rates continued to surge as the Strait of Hormuz remained shut. Tanker rates from North Africa to the UK were up by 136% between 20-27 March, while rates from West Africa to the UK were up 58% across the same period. Shipping rates from terminals within the North Sea to the UK increased 74% week on week. According to data from Baker Hughes, the number of US oil rigs fell by five to 409. Low High Open Settle Change Brent May 105.09 112.93 106.60 112.57 4.56 WTI May 92.08 100.04 93.31 99.64 5.16 Crude barrels (Source: Shutterstock)

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem’s stock was down by nearly 10% in Friday afternoon trading after auditors included an emphasis paragraph in their annual report highlighting significant uncertainty over the Brazilian polymers major’s action plans, which underpinned its going-concern assumption. Braskem’s shares were trading at Brazilian reais (R) 9.18 ($1.74) by 14:15 local time on the Sao Paulo stock exchange, down by 9.6% compared to their prior close. In a regulatory filing on Friday, KPMG Auditores Independentes, the firm’s Brazilian branch, flagged uncertainty related to the action plans supporting the company’s ability to continue operating as a going concern in its audit of Braskem’s financial statements for 2025. “Going-concern assumption” is a standard accounting assumption that a business will remain operational for at least 12 months. Earlier in March, Brazil’s antitrust authority, CADE, approved asset manager IG4’s acquisition of the Novonor-held controlling stake in Braskem, potentially paving the way for an ongoing debt restructuring process at the heavily indebted petrochemicals major. Braskem’s Fiscal Council, which reviewed the auditors’ report at its meeting on 25 March, noted the emphasis paragraph, but nonetheless rendered a favorable opinion of the company’s financial statements. Speaking to reporters in the company’s earnings call on Friday, CFO Felipe Montoro sought to contextualize the auditor’s flag, stressing that the financial statements themselves were prepared on a going-concern basis. The CFO explained that while the balance sheet was attested by auditors and prepared on the assumption of the company’s operational continuity over a minimum 12-month horizon, a capital restructuring plan approved by the board of directors earlier this year had introduced uncertainties that required the auditor, in its independent capacity, to flag them. “There is a plan that has been drawn up, which was approved earlier this year by the company’s board of directors. We were even talking a little while ago about some of these issues that involve the reorganization of Braskem’s own capital structure. And, like any transformational plan that requires the efforts of third parties, the auditor, in their independent capacity, needs to raise questions about any significant uncertainties, or lack thereof, regarding this plan,” said Montoro. “Given that Braskem is the company that it is, and the capital structure that will undergo a reorganization process, it has been stated that there are uncertainties about this plan, and we have been working on it, as we say, since September of last year, with the engagement of all financial and legal advisors so that it can be implemented. “Therefore, this is why there is talk of uncertainty regarding the financial statements and the assumption that they have been misrepresented concerning the company’s operational capacity and continuity,” he concluded. The disclosure adds a new dimension to an already challenging financial picture for Braskem. The company recorded a net loss of $1.8 billion in 2025 and sales fell by 12% to $12.6 billion (see financial on table at bottom). Corporate leverage stood at 14.74 times (14x) recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by 31 December 2025, reflecting the sustained impact of a global petrochemical downcycle on earnings. Any leverage at or below 3.0x is considered financially sound. Gross corporate debt closed the year at $9.4 billion. The going-concern emphasis follows a period of acute financial stress at Braskem’s Mexican subsidiary, Braskem Idesa, which missed scheduled interest payments on its senior secured notes in November 2025 and February 2026 and has been in negotiations with bondholders over a potential capital restructuring. Braskem key financials, $ billion Q4 2025 Q4 2024 Change Q3 2025 Change 2025 2024 Change Revenue 2,985 3,285 -9% 3,175 -6% 12,642 14,396 -12% Recurring EBITDA 109 102 7% 150 -27% 557 1,083 -49% Net income/loss -1,888 -967 95% -1 N/A -1,822 -2,056 -11%

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Braskem is mulling to appeal Brazil’s decision to impose definitive anti-dumping duties (ADDs) on US polyethylene (PE) imports at a fraction of the level recommended by government trade technicians, management at the Brazilian polymers producer said on Friday. Braskem’s CFO Felipe Montoro said Gecex’s decision earlier this week was regrettable and warned that the domestic industry remained in a deteriorating competitive position. Late on Thursday, Brazil’s Foreign Trade Chamber (Gecex) confirmed five-year definitive ADDs on PE imports from the US and Canada but set the US rate at $199.04/tonne, the same provisional level that was in force between August 2025 and February 2026. The figure is far below the $734.32/tonne margin that the technical body’s Decom at the ministry of industry (MDIC) assessed in February. In the same assessment, the Canadian rate was set at $238.49/tonne. Gecex said the reduction from Decom’s recommended level was made in the public interest to avoid additional impact on the downstream chain. The duties apply on top of Brazil’s existing 20% import tariff on PE from both countries. Montoro expressed frustration at the outcome during the company’s Q4 earnings call on Friday. “We will appeal this decision because we believe the anti-dumping case is very strong, very well demonstrated, including access to information provided by US producers who clearly showed that they were practicing a predatory pricing policy,” he said, speaking to reporters after the company published its Q4 results. “Therefore, in a way, you have an admission of wrongdoing, and it is absolutely regrettable to me to imagine that this was not taken into consideration by the [Gecex’s] Council, and that the recommendation of the technicians from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce was not endorsed by Gecex.” Montoro added the competitive dynamics the case sought to address had worsened since the provisional measure was granted in August 2025, with naphtha – Braskem’s primary feedstock – rising in price while ethane, the key feedstock for US producers, had remained largely stable, widening the cost disadvantage for Brazilian producers. “The situation hasn’t improved; it’s gotten worse. I have difficulty understanding what public interest was taken into consideration,” he said. Braskem said it had not yet received the full written ruling and would review it before determining its next legal steps. The original anti-dumping case was filed by Braskem in 2024. Other import-intensive parts of the chain, however, will be pleased to see the ADD set at a lower rate than the technical recommendation from February. Earlier in March, the trade groups representing the flexible plastic packaging and plastic transformers’ sectors, Abief and Abiplast, respectively, both said rising protectionism in Brazil at a time of global crisis linked to the war in Iran would only negatively affect Brazilian manufacturing downstream sectors, where costs would increased, they said.

LONDON (ICIS)–Surging inflationary pressures and dwindling economic growth expectations are pushing parts of the global economy towards the kind of stagflationary footing seen during the 1970s oil crisis, while supply shocks and feedstock surges are starting to remap chemicals flows once again. European chemical markets have flipped from oversupply to tightness Supply disruptions in Asia and the need to source material may reduce flows to Europe China is better-equipped to deal with the Strait of Hormuz closure than many of its neighbours The crisis could prompt Asia Pacific players to re-evaluate their heavy reliance on Middle Eastern feedstocks The US chemical industry is comparatively insulated and profiting from the turmoil: with abundant domestic oil, gas and cheap ethane Economic sentiment is weakening as conflict-driven costs ripple through the global economy Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Growth in China and the rest of Asia is expected to moderate in 2026-2027, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said on 26 March. This is a result of energy headwinds from the US and Israel-led conflict in the Middle East, which is weighing on economies in Asia dependent on energy from the Middle East. China’s growth predicted below official growth target India GDP growth to moderate to 6.1% in 2026 from 7.6% in 2025 Inflation expectations increase on surging energy, fertilizer prices China’s annual GDP growth is projected to ease gradually over the next two years – to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 – amid rising energy import prices, further adjustment in the real estate sector and anti-involution measures, the OECD said in its Interim Economic Outlook report. Involution refers to the situation of excessive, internal competition in the country, where firms compete by expanding capacity and cutting prices, which erodes industry profits. China has introduced anti‑involution policies aimed at curbing this behavior while promoting the exit of inefficient plants and encouraging industry upgrading toward higher‑value, specialised products. China grew 5.0% in 2025, meeting its official growth target. The country has set a growth target of between 4.5-5.0% for 2026. Tailwinds for China include new infrastructure projects and a recent reduction in effective US tariff rates on imports from China, the OECD said. For India, better-than-expected growth in 2025 of 7.6% is forecast to moderate to 6.1% in 2026, amid gas rationing that would curtail production activities as well as reduced governmental fiscal support. India is particularly vulnerable to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as it relies heavily on the region for energy imports and key fertilizer inputs, the OECD said. South Korea’s growth is expected to come in at 1.7% in 2026, a downward revision from an earlier December 2025 forecast of 2.1%. South Korea grew 0.9% in 2025. Much like Japan, the northeast Asian country is highly reliant on currently disrupted energy imports from the Middle East. “The energy supply shock from the evolving conflict in the Middle East is testing the resilience of the global economy,” OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann said. “We project global growth will remain robust but it will be slower than the pre-conflict trajectory, with significantly higher inflation,” Cormann added. An expected decline in future energy prices is based on OECD assumptions that current disruptions to supply will ease over time and be limited in 2027. Global growth is expected to moderate to 2.9% in 2026, from 3.3% in 2025, before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, amid rising costs and lower demand from the Middle East conflict. Inflation is also projected to increase in 2026 as surging energy and fertilizer prices raise costs of food and other products. India is expected to see the most significant jump, with inflation rising to 5.1% in fiscal year (FY) 2026-27. The OECD predicts the country will temporarily raise policy interest rates in the second quarter of 2026 to combat this. China’s overall inflation is also projected to rise from -0.1% in 2025 to 1.3% in 2026. Compared with headline inflation, core inflation is expected to remain more moderate in advanced economies in Asia. Japan’s core inflation is projected at 1.5% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, while South Korea’s core inflation is projected to be 2.4% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027. Focus article by Jonathan Yee Additional reporting by Nurluqman Suratman Visit the US-Iran conflict: Impact on energy, chemical markets topic page for the latest updates and analysis

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ongoing US and Israel-led conflict in the Middle East has disrupted crucial flows of naphtha feedstock to cracker operators across Asia. With about 60% of Asia’s naphtha imports typically sourced from the Middle East, the region remains vulnerable to widespread cracker run‑rate cuts and temporary shutdowns, with the effect cascading through the ethylene (C2) value chain. Naphtha shortages force Asia producers to cut C2, PE op rates Market participants look to China for alternative SM supply amid tightening availability PVC margins hold firm on adequate inventories, steady downstream demand This is the second installment of a two-part podcast. In part one, ICIS senior editors Josh Quah and Izham Ahmad examine how tightening feedstock availability is pressuring cracker operating rates and reshaping sentiment in the C2 and polyethylene (PE) markets. In part two, ICIS senior editor Luffy Wu and ICIS market analyst Jonathan Chou discuss how the disruption is filtering downstream into the styrene monomer (SM) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) markets, and what participants can expect in the weeks ahead.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The South Korean government will enforce strict naphtha export curbs and anti-hoarding measures for five months starting 27 March, to stabilize domestic supply chains disrupted by the ongoing war in the Middle East. S Korea government aims to stabilize supply chains amid Middle East conflict Naphtha exports now require ministerial approval under new decree 2025 naphtha exports at 3.89 million tonnes; imports at 26.7 million tonnes – ICIS data Under the new decree, naphtha exports are prohibited in principle and will only be permitted in exceptional cases with specific ministerial approval, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources (MOTIR) said in a statement on Friday. Naphtha is a critical feedstock for the petrochemical industry, which provides essential materials for South Korea’s semiconductor and automotive sectors. “South Korea currently exports a volume of naphtha in a single year that matches what the Middle East ships to Asia in just one month,” said Catherine Tan, ICIS senior manager for chemical analytics. The country’s import volume remains nearly seven times higher than its exports despite this outward flow, she noted. “So, there is some relief there for domestic naphtha consumers, but still insufficient to mitigate losses from Mideast imports,” Tan added. South Korea exported 3.89 million tonnes of naphtha in 2025, mostly to China followed by Japan and Singapore, according to the ICIS Supply & Demand Database. Its naphtha imports, which account for 45% of the country’s total consumption, stood at 26.7 million tonnes last year, 77% of which originated from the Middle East, the data showed. Naphtha makes up approximately 67% of the country’s steam cracker feedstock, while LPG accounts for about 21%, according to ICIS analyst Wang Yan. The government has also mandated that oil refiners and petrochemical companies provide daily reports on production, imports, sales, and inventory levels to the industry minster. To prevent market manipulation, the ministry can intervene if a refiner’s weekly release ratio falls by more than 20% compared to the previous year without a justifiable cause. The regulations grant the government the authority to order production increases or direct the supply of specific volumes to designated petrochemical firms to prevent industrial bottlenecks. Prior to these mandatory measures, the government designated naphtha as an “economic security item”, providing low-interest loans and trade insurance to help companies secure alternative supply routes. The emergency restrictions aim to ensure a steady flow of raw materials for healthcare, core industries, and the production of daily necessities. Industry minister Kim Jung-kwan said that the government will prioritize maximizing import volumes to protect the foundational raw materials of the South Korean economy. “As naphtha is a basic raw material that supports Korean industry, the government will strive to secure as much as possible through overseas introduction support to respond to supply and demand instability,” Kim said. Kim also called on petrochemical corporations to exercise responsibility in supply chain management to ensure distribution aligns with the intent of the emergency decree. Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Additional reporting by Ed Lane and Jonathan Chou Visit the ICIS Israel-Iran conflict: impact on chemicals and energy topic page for latest updates and analysis Busan container port in South Korea (Photo by Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock)

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Friday as US President Donald Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reach a ceasefire deal or face further US attacks, providing brief relief to markets nearly a month since the Middle East conflict began. Trump sets 6 April deadline for US-Iran deal US military build-up in Mideast continues 2026 global GDP growth to slow to 2.9% from 3.3% in 2025 – OECD Product (at 01:00 GMT) in $/barrel Latest Previous Change Brent May 107.07 108.01 -0.94 WTI May 93.90 94.48 -0.58 At 01:00 GMT, Brent crude was down by 0.6% at above $107/barrel, after surging by 5.7% in the previous session; while US WTI was down by 1.5% after a 5% spike overnight. Oil prices rose on 26 March after Iran signaled unwillingness to hold direct talks with the US, even as a US proposal to end the war is under review by senior officials in Tehran, according to remarks from the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister. In a social media post on 26 March, Trump said: “As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time.” This meant an extension to Trump’s five-day pause on strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure announced on 23 March. “Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well,” Trump added. Crude has rallied sharply this month amid exceptional volatility as conflict between the US-Israel and Iran continues to rock the Middle East. The war has severely restricted energy flows vital to the global economy after Tehran forced a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The extended deadline also allows more time for negotiations while enabling the US to amass additional troops in the region. “A peace deal between the US and Iran could bring an end to hostilities soon,” said Ajay Parmar, ICIS head of oil markets. “Prices would likely fall back very quickly in the wake of an announcement, but it would likely take a number of months before some form of normality is restored to crude, refining and petrochemicals markets.” Earlier on 26 March, Trump struck a far less conciliatory tone in a Truth Social post, warning that Iran “better get serious soon, before it is too late,” adding that once a final US decision is made, “there is NO TURNING BACK, and it won’t be pretty”. He also characterized Iranian negotiators as “very different” and “strange”, claiming they were “begging” the US to strike a deal to end the war. Gulf nations and Jordan issued a joint statement on 26 March condemning “criminal” strikes launched by Iran-backed factions in Iraq against regional energy infrastructure. They stated that these attacks breach international law and violate a UN Security Council resolution which demands Iran immediately and unconditionally cease all proxy threats against neighboring states. “While we value our fraternal relations with the Republic of Iraq, we call on the Iraqi government to take the necessary measures to immediately halt the attacks … toward neighboring countries,” the joint statement by the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan said. They further warned that Gulf states are prepared to defend themselves going forward, underscoring the risk that the conflict could broaden further across the region. GLOBAL ECONOMIC HIT The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) warned in a fresh report that the unpredictable nature of the evolving Middle East conflict and the resulting energy price surge will raise global costs and lower demand. Global GDP growth is projected to ease to 2.9% in 2026 before edging up to 3.0% in 2027, as geopolitical instability offsets tailwinds from technology investment and the momentum carried over from 2025. These projections assume that energy market disruptions will moderate over time, with oil, gas, and fertilizer prices expected to decline gradually from mid-2026. US annual GDP growth is set to moderate from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027 from 2.1% in 2025, while China’s growth is expected to cool to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 from around 5% in 2025. “A significant downside risk to the outlook is that persistent disruptions to exports from the Middle East that raise energy prices even further than assumed and aggravate shortages of key commodities, add to inflation and reduce growth,” it said. “Such a scenario, or lower than expected returns from AI investment, could also trigger more extensive repricing in financial markets, weakening demand and raising financial stability risks.” Focus article by Nurluqman Suratman Visit the ICIS Israel-Iran conflict: impact on chemicals and energy topic page for latest updates and analysis