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Ethylene14-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–On his first day in office as
president, Donald Trump could repeal the
pause on permits for new liquefied natural
gas (LNG) terminals and automobile policies
that are so restrictive, critics say they
favor electric vehicles (EVs) over those
powered by internal combustion engines (ICE),
an oil and gas trade group said.
Repealing those polices are among the goals
of the American Petroleum Institute (API),
and they would have indirect effects on the
US chemical industry.
LNG exports affect US chemical markets
because they support prices for natural gas
by providing another source of demand.
Natural gas prices influence those for
ethane, the main feedstock that US crackers
use to make ethylene.
EVs consume more plastics than their
counterparts that are powered by internal
combustion engines. EVs are also creating
demand for new polymers and fluids that can
meet their unique material challenges.
REMOVING THE HALT ON NEW LNG
PERMITSThe US has effectively
frozen the issuance of new LNG permits since
January 2024, when President Joe Biden issued
the order. The freeze applies to terminals
that will export LNG to countries that lack
free trade agreements with the US.
“I think the LNG pause is something that they
can address on day one,” said Mike Sommers,
API president. He made his comments in a
briefing earlier in the week.
Trump takes office on 20 January.
If Trump removes the freeze, it would not
automatically lead to a flood of new permits
for LNG terminals.
US companies may be reluctant to build more
terminals when global LNG capacity is
expected to increase.
Rising US costs for material and labor have
made LNG projects less attractive.
Legal challenges could arise during the
permitting process.
REMOVING EFFECTIVE RESTRICTIONS ON
ICE VEHICLESTrump could ax two
Biden automobile policies his first day in
office, Sommers said.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s
(EPA’s)
recent tailpipe rule, which gradually
restricts emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2)
from light vehicles.
The Department of Transportation’s
(DoT’s) Corporate Average Fuel Economy
(CAFE) program, which mandates
fuel-efficiency standards.
The group also wants Trump to withdraw
a waiver that the federal government
granted to California, which allowed the
state to adopt a program that will gradually
phase out ICE vehicles.
California’s program, called Advanced Clean
Cars II (ACC II),
is the lynchpin for similar programs
adopted by 12 other US states and
territories. If Trump can successfully
withdraw the waiver, then it would prevent
California and the 12 other states and
territories from adopting ACC II style
programs.
The fate of the ACC II program
could become a legal dispute over state
versus federal power that would need to be
settled in court.
OTHER POLICY GOALS OF THE
APIEVs and LNG permits make up
two of the five policies that the API will
promote to the new administration.
The other three include permitting reform,
tax policy and issuing a new five-year
offshore leasing program.
Under these five policy goals, the API has
outlined more than 70 actions that the
administration could take, many of them
possible on Trump’s first day in office.
Others may require acts from Congress. This
could be challenging because Trump’s party
holds a two-seat majority in the lower
legislative chamber of the US.
API TO DISCOURAGE TARIFFS ON CANADIAN
CRUDEPrior to taking office,
Trump had threatened to impose tariffs of 25%
on imports from Canada. Trump did not
indicate that he would exclude Canada’s
sizeable shipments of crude oil.
In 2023, Canadian oil made up nearly 60% of
all crude imported by the US, according to
the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Canadian oil is heavier than that produced in
the US, so the two grades complement each
other in the nation’s refineries.
“40% of the American refinery kit is not
tooled to refine the kind of oil that is
found in the US,” Sommers said.
“We’re confident that the Trump
administration understands the importance of
that kind of trade, and we’re going to work
with them as they consider their trade policy
over time,” he said.
PIECEMEAL PRESERVATION OF
IRAThe API would like the
government to preserve some of the tax
credits created by the Inflation Reduction
Act (IRA). Those include the carbon capture
tax credits under Section 45Q and the
hydrogen production tax credits under Section
45V.
Many API members are developing carbon
capture and hydrogen projects.
Meanwhile, it would like the government to
repeal the IRA’s methane fee.
Crude Oil14-Jan-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China has been rushing to
ship out goods ahead of new US
tariffs under the Trump administration
which should keep exports growth strong in the
short term, but external demand is projected to
slow in line with a weaker global economy in
2025.
Dec exports to US hit 30-month high, but
risks loom
Ships, semiconductors lead export growth in
2024
Chinese government stimulus may back import
growth
China closed the year with a record trade
surplus of $101.6 billion in December, driven
by surging exports and a return to growth for
imports after two straight months of
contraction.
This pushed both the monthly and annual trade
surpluses to all-time highs, with the former
exceeding $100 billion for the first time ever.
“December’s data likely benefited from some
export frontloading
ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s
inauguration this month,” said Lynn Song, chief
economist for Greater China at Dutch banking
and financial information services provider
ING, in a note.
In December, China’s exports to the US surged
by 15.6% year on year, a 30-month high and the
strongest increase in shipments after the
ASEAN, which grew by 18.9%.
For the whole of 2024, China’s exports and
imports rose by 5.9%, reversing the 4.6%
decline in the previous year. Imports for the
full year posted a 1.1% growth, in contrast
with the 5.5% contraction recorded in 2023.
The trade surplus of the world’s second-biggest
economy widened to a record high of $992.2
billion, up 20.7% from the preceding year.
Against the US, China’s trade surplus widened
to $359.9 billion, after narrowing sharply to
$339.94 billion in 2023. The US accounted for a
third of China’s total trade surplus in 2024.
China’s export success last year was
concentrated in key sectors like ships,
semiconductors, autos, and household
appliances.
Key exports by key products
On the imports front, the latest data “shows a
clear divide” within China’s economy, according
to ING’s Song.
“Sectors benefiting from policy support were
the only areas of strength in terms of import
demand,” he said.
China’s focus on technology self-sufficiency
caused the 57.9% year-on-year surge in imports
of automatic data processing equipment, with
imports of semiconductors up by 10.4%, and
those of hi-tech products rising by 10.7%.
Softening commodities demand in 2024 weakened
import figures across the board.
Agricultural products saw a 7.9% decline, while
imports of iron ore, crude oil, lumber, and
steel fell by 2.5%, 3.9%, 1.5%, and 9.2%
respectively.
“China’s consumption could see a modest
recovery in 2025, depending on how effective
policy support is, but it remains uncertain how
much of this will translate into stronger
import demand as policies look likely to
benefit domestic producers more,” Song added.
STRONGER HEADWINDS FOR
EXPORTS
“External demand has been an important
contributor to growth momentum in 2024, not
only through the record trade surplus but also
the impact on manufacturing,” he said.
However, looming tariff increases, and the
prospect of slower global growth cast a shadow
over external demand in 2025, Song noted.
“Our ING scenario currently has tariffs
starting to take effect in the second quarter
of this year, with tariffs on China potentially
coming earlier,” he said.
China’s exports still face the risk of
contraction this year if US’ additional tariffs
on Chinese goods turned out to be larger or
implemented sooner than expected, said Ho Woei
Chen, economist at Singapore-based UOB Global
Economics & Markets Research, in a note.
Meanwhile, imports may be somewhat supported by
the government’s stimulus
measures to boost domestic consumption, but
imports of intermediate goods could drop when
any additional tariffs kicked in, Ho said.
“Weighed by additional tariffs and intensifying
trade tensions, China’s exports grew just 0.5%
while imports fell -2.8% in 2019,” Ho said.
“For now, we factor in marginal growth of
around 1.0% for both exports and imports in
2025.”
Focus article by Nurluqman
Suratman
Polyethylene Terephthalate13-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Bottle-grade US polyethylene
terephthalate (PET) demand is currently in a
seasonal lull and is expected to continue that
way through the end of January and into
February.
However, demand is expected to pick up in March
with healthy orders already for the month,
according to market participants.
Typically, demand picks up ahead of peak season
which runs from Memorial Day at the end of May
to Labor Day at the beginning of September, but
in recent years, demand has been slow to pick
up before the beginning of peak season.
Historically, an increase in temperatures
pushes consumers to purchase more bottled
beverages.
PET resins can be broadly classified into
bottle, fibre or film grade, named according to
the downstream applications. Bottle grade resin
is the most commonly traded form of PET resin
and it is used in bottle and container
packaging through blow molding and
thermoforming. Fibre grade resin goes into
making polyester fibre, while film grade resin
is used in electrical and flexible packaging
applications.
PET can be compounded with glass fibre for the
production of engineering plastics.
DAK Americas, Indorama, Nan Ya Plastics
Corporation and Far Eastern New Century (FENC)
are PET producers in the US.
Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)
See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.
Gas13-Jan-2025
MPs renew call for German Galushchenko to
address ministry corruption concerns
The summon comes after minister and MPs
disagree over nuclear capacity relying on
Russian technology
MPs raise fears over major costs, no
transparent project supervision
LONDON (ICIS)– The Ukrainian energy minister
German Galushchenko has been summoned to
parliament to explain accusations of corruption
in the ministry, two members of parliament
confirmed to ICIS on 13 January.
Galushchenko was summoned in parliament in
September 2024 after a deputy minister was
fired for accepting a bribe. The minister
refused to attend at the time.
MPs have now renewed the request for
Galushchenko to appear in the unicameral
parliament of Ukraine this week after a major
dispute erupted over a government push to build
multi-billion dollar nuclear capacity reliant
on Russian technology.
Last year, the government resurrected plans
initiated in the 1990s to build two new
reactors with an installed capacity of 2GW,
whose costs at current levels could reach $4
billion.
The project, which benefits from the support of
German Galushchenko and the nuclear producer
Energoatom, involves buying two old reactors
purchased by Bulgaria from Rosatom some 15
years ago.
The reactors were secured for the construction
of the Belene nuclear power plant in northern
Bulgaria but had not been used amid an arbitral
dispute with Rosatom which eventually forced
the southeast European country to pay $620
million to the company for them.
The Ukrainian government now wants to buy these
reactors and use them at the Khmelnitsky
nuclear power plant in southwestern Ukraine.
PROJECT DETAILS
MPs including some members of the majority
Servant of the People party oppose the deal,
claiming Galushchenko had not been providing
updated technical details and financial
estimates for the project.
They also raised concerns about the minister’s
reference to some members of the EU delegation
in Kyiv, whom he described as ‘mid-level
diplomats,’ not authorized to express an
official position.
The government wants the project to be
discussed and approved in the full chamber but
no official date has been set yet.
Speaking to ICIS, Inna Sovsun, a MP from the
opposition Holos party and member of the
parliament’s energy committee, said
Galushchenko appeared in parliament last week
and submitted documents dating back to 2018,
which are no longer valid.
“He provided an estimate of Ukraine Hryvnia
(UAH) 77 billion (€1.8 billion) but,
considering Ukraine’s high inflation rate since
the start of the war, this cost is at least
double that between UAH150-UAH200 billion,” she
said.
Sovsun said Galushchenko himself accepted the
cost may be higher and added that he submitted
technical specifications for a project that was
slightly different to the one that is supported
by the government.
The government insists Ukraine needs secure
electricity capacity to replace the thermal
power plants which had been destroyed by
Russian missiles.
However, Sovsun said it would take years to
build the nuclear capacity, offering cold
comfort to millions of Ukrainians who had
endured power cuts since the start of Russia’s
full-scale war.
“Is this [the nuclear capacity] the best option
now? We need things done quickly and as cheaply
as possible,” she said.
FINANCING
Sovsun also raised questions about the
financing of the project, noting that it may be
difficult for Energoatom to secure funds from
international financial institutions.
This is because the company still has no
functional supervisory board to oversee its
operations.
If Ukraine fails to secure funding from IFIs it
may need to increase end consumer electricity
tariffs to fund the project.
Sovsun noted that considering the sensitivity
of the project it may be subject to no public
scrutiny, which could open up opportunities for
corrupt practices.
A supervisory board was appointed at Energoatom
in June 2024 but has not been meeting or
publishing activity reports since then,
according to Oleksandr Lysenko, a Ukraine-based
corporate governance specialist who confirmed
this to ICIS.
Speaking to ICIS Andrii Zhupanyn, an MP and
deputy head of the energy and utility committee
said minister Galushchenko’s reference to
members of the EU’s delegation to Kyiv as
mid-level diplomats not authorized to make an
official statement on the matter was being
‘carefully read’ in western embassies.
He said the minister had referred to private
correspondence between Sovsun and some members
of the EU delegation.
Sovsun conceded neither US nor EU partners had
not expressed an official view on Ukraine’s
nuclear power plans.
The ministry of energy did not reply to
questions from ICIS but said in a statement
posted on its website: “Within the framework of
the relevant public discussions, private
correspondence of mid-level diplomats, not
authorized to express the official position of
the EU or its member states, was used.”
Ethylene13-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas
Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from
23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals
pessimism persists as downturn could last to
2030
For many players within Latin America
petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more
stop on the long downturn journey as, for
many, the market’s rebalancing will only take
place towards the end of the decade.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PE demand could
finally improve from Q2
onwards
Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand
should start slowly in 2025, but it could
take a decisive turn for the better from Q2
onwards.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PP supply to
remain long amid squeezed
margins
Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected
to remain oversupplied in the first half of
2025, with producers’ margins likely to
remain squeezed.
OUTLOOK
’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in
2025, giving chemicals a shot at
recovery
For all the talk about a soft landing for the
US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid
landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than
2% for the fifth consecutive year as the
labor market remains healthy and consumer
spending resilient.
OUTLOOK ’25: US NGL demand to rebound
moderately
Though demand for US natural gas liquids
(NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025
due to a general inventory glut, various
industry and environmental conditions have
feedstocks poised for a moderate demand
rebound in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will
drive US ethylene market entering new
year
Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene
market heading into 2025 as it enters an
unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as
10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going
down for planned maintenance during Q1 and
Q2.
OUTLOOK ’25: US BD poised for demand,
export growth as production stabilizes,
grows
US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at
the start of 2025 as outages which limited
production in 2024 are resolved, while both
exports and demand are expected to grow in
the new year.
OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PE to see both
demand extremes between high cost food-grade
PCR and low cost PIR
US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets
continue to see extreme disparity between
sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive
grades of both post-consumer and
post-industrial recycled high-density
polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled
low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is
expected to persist into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PP navigating
mediocre growth and
oversupply
US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be
relatively less volatile in 2025, following a
year where prices changed every month. Higher
propylene inventory levels and improved
supply expected to stabilize supply/demand
dynamics.
OUTLOOK ’25: US ACN demand weakness
to continue amid
oversupply
The three-year demand decline in US
acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market
growth to support favorable rates; container
market readies for port labor issues,
tariffs
Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker
market is likely to support favorable rates
in 2025, while the container shipping market
could see upward pressure from possible labor
strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and
proposed tariffs on Chinese imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: Lackluster US aromatics
demand, rising inventories pressure benzene
and toluene
After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have
declined through the latter half of the year,
due to soft derivative demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing
weak demand, overcapacity
The US styrene market enters the new year
facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low
operating rates. With a light maintenance
season ahead, the market’s fate will be
driven largely by derivative demand, which
continues to face challenging headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PS, EPS demand to
remain soft
Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to
remain soft into the next year with weak
downstream markets, polymer recycling
regulations and overall expectations of a
smaller growth in the economy for 2025
compared with 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Ample LatAm PS supply
meets poor demand
The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market
will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the
back of weak demand across the region
combined with plentiful supply.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PET demand expected
higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain
risks
Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate
(PET) should increase in 2025 if lower
inflation and interest rates drive
consumption with stronger growth expected in
the second half of the year, but the
possibilities of a trade war or supply
disruption in upstream purified terephthalate
acid (PTA) remain concerns.
OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PET prices
pressured by economic challenges, tariff
shifts
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in
Latin America are expected to soften in H1
2025, driven by changes in import tariffs,
lower Asia prices and easing freight rates.
OUTLOOK ’25: US BDO demand to
strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy,
tariffs may be headwinds
US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to
strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled
inflation and lower interest rates, but
possible tariffs and changes to electric
vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges.
OUTLOOK ’25: US caustic soda
trajectory to be impacted by PVC length,
tariffs
The US caustic soda market in the latter half
of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply
disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on
the chlorine side of the molecule.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PVC faces oversupply,
export challenges
The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set
to face significant headwinds in 2025,
entering the year with abundant inventories,
expanded production capacity and constrained
export opportunities. The confluence of these
factors points to a challenging landscape for
producers as they navigate both domestic and
international market pressures.
OUTLOOK ’25: Latin America PVC market
faces challenges from tariffs and instability
in H1
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin
America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due
to various regional challenges.
OUTLOOK ’25: US soda ash facing
subdued demand
US soda ash is facing subdued demand going
into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up.
OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PET expects strong
beverage demand amid international
risk
Though the build up to 2025 has been
tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both
optimism and distrust that the year will keep
to its original promise.
OUTLOOK ’25: US nylon demand weak
amid manufacturing
contraction
Demand declines in US nylon markets which
started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2
2025. Demand was weak in multiple application
sectors including automotive, industrial,
textiles, electrical and electronics. The
only application sectors that performed well
were packaging and medical.
OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone
production to remain curtailed on soft
demand
US phenol demand will likely remain soft and
weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as
expectations for a rebound are tempered.
OUTLOOK ’25: US MMA anticipating new
supply in new year
US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are
trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics
amid heightened volatility going into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US ABS, PC look to
remain pressured with weakened
markets
Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
(ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to
remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024
with industries like automotive, household
appliances and housing markets not expecting
to see increases.
OUTLOOK ’25: US polyurethanes brace
for Asia overcapacity and US weak
demand
The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU)
products in the US is marked by the
expectation of a very slow economic recovery,
constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity
of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and
polyols built in Asia, possible labor
strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing
issues with the Red Sea’s route.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PG, UPR face pressure
from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand
boost remains
While recent sharp declines in propylene have
led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG)
in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been
moderated by buyer interest in winter
applications.
OUTLOOK ’25: US acetic acid, VAM
exports expected stronger, domestic demand
could rise
US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer
(VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving
after production outages resolved, while
tight global supply is expected to boost
export demand and lower inflation may lead to
stronger domestic demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US PA remains
sufficiently supplied even with capacity
reduction
US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will
tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a
major domestic producer. Supply is expected
to be sufficient to meet current demand
levels, but any future demand improvement is
likely to require support from increased
imports.
OUTLOOK ’25: US MA facing muted
demand expectations
US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered
expectations for a rebound in demand going
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: US EG/EO demand expected
higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1
supply
Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and
ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025
on restocking and if lower inflation drives
consumption, but this may be met with tight
supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance.
OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream
propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant
closure
US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are
expected to be balanced in the first half of
2025 with price movements tracking upstream
propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue
facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market
next year is the decision by Shell to shutter
its production facility in the Netherlands in
the first half of the year.
OUTLOOK ’25: US melamine to see
consequences from US antidumping
ruling
The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty
(CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14
February 2024 against melamine imports from
Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands,
Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an
investigation from the United States
International Trade Commission (US ITC) that
is slated to impact the melamine industry at
large in 2025.
OUTLOOK
’25: US President Trump could move quickly on
tariffs, deregulation
As US president, Donald Trump could quickly
proceed on campaign promises to impose
tariffs and cut regulations after taking
office on 20 January.
OUTLOOK ’25: US base oils seek to
manage new normal amid oversupply, demand
deterioration
Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand
is likely to persist into a third year — this
year with less optimism for significant
domestic demand recovery in automotive and
headwinds from additional supply entering the
global marketplace.
OUTLOOK ’25: Squeezed import margins
leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to
supply disruptions in H1
Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids
and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply
disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a
sharp increase in feedstock costs across the
oil palm complex over the last quarter and
sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the
wider market.
OUTLOOK ’25: US H1 glycerine markets
to remain relatively tight amid squeezed
biodiesel margins, import
bottlenecks
US H1 glycerine markets are expected to
remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated
weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME)
production in Q1 stemming from pending
changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives
against the backdrop of sustained import
logistics bottlenecks create short-term
supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine
supplies.
OUTLOOK ’25: US epoxy resins
grappling with duty, logistics, demand
issues
US epoxy resins players are trying to
formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of
duty investigations and guarded sentiment on
demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: US oxo-alcohols,
acrylates, plasticizers see falling
feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes
potential tariffs
Following declines in feedstock prices in the
autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols,
acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face
demand headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: US etac supply concerns
emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more
stable but feedstock costs
fall
After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp
drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate
(butac) and some glycol ethers have led to
volatility in US spot and contract prices in
the latter half of the year. While notable
declines in upstream costs have not been seen
in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are
ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on
material produced in Mexico may impact
domestic availability in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Brazil ethanol
production strong; market watches forex,
Combustivel do Futuro,
RenovaBio
The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust
domestic production and evolving global
energy policies. As Brazil continues to
position itself as one of the leaders in
renewable energy, initiatives like
Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set
to play a crucial role in driving growth.
OUTLOOK ’25: US methanol supply
expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up
mid-year
US methanol supply is tight heading into the
new year, a situation that has been offset by
lackluster demand, but demand is expected to
pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled
inflation and lower interest rates fuel
consumer spending and the housing market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Gradual demand recovery
anticipated for US TiO2 by
H2
North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand
is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2
2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve
continues to ease monetary policy.
Ethylene13-Jan-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 10 January.
Canada’s Trudeau resigns as prime
minister
Canada’s Justin Trudeau has resigned as prime
minister and Liberal Party leader, with the
country now set to head to the polls and
return the Conservative party back into
office.
Mitsubishi Chem cancels plans for US
MMA project
Mitsubishi Chemical Corp (MCC) said on
Tuesday it has decided not to proceed with
its planned 350,000 tonne/year methyl
methacrylate (MMA) project at
Geismar, Louisiana.
INSIGHT: Wall Street kicks off new
year with 2025 earnings cuts for
chemicals
On Wall Street, hope springs eternal at the
beginning of a new year, and especially for
sectors that have underperformed in the past
year. But for chemicals, analysts are kicking
off the year with cuts to their 2025 profit
forecasts as a recovery in housing,
automotive and consumer durables appears to
be further off in the horizon.
UPDATE: Strike averted as ILA, ports
reach tentative agreement
Union dockworkers and US Gulf and East Coast
port operators tentatively agreed to a new
six-year contract Wednesday, averting a
strike that was about a week away.
INSIGHT: Mitsubishi cancels
ethylene-based US MMA project amid global
glut
A surge in new methyl methacrylate (MMA)
capacity in China will keep utilization rates
depressed during the next few years, even
with the recent decision by Mitsubishi
Chemical to cancel its proposed project in
the US.
SHIPPING: Asia-US container rates
still rising as tariff threat replaces strike
concerns
The tentative agreement between US
Gulf and East Coast ports and dockworkers has
taken some of the pressure off rates for
shipping containers from Asia to the US, but
the threat of tariffs proposed by
President-elect Donald Trump is likely to
support higher prices moving forward.
Speciality Chemicals13-Jan-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the
stories from ICIS Latin America for the week
ended on 10 January.
NEWS
Brazil’s Senator,
manufacturers aiming to overturn higher
chemicals tariffs, charge against
BraskemBrazilian senator
Sergio Moro this week rallied plastic
manufacturers against the October increase in
import tariffs arguing it primarily benefits
petrochemicals major Braskem by protecting
its sales in the domestic market.
Argentina’s chemicals
output down 2% in November, outpacing
manufacturing
fallArgentina’s chemicals
output fell by 2.1% in November, year on
year, as the sector and peers in
manufacturing continue to be one hardest hit
by the recession, according to the country’s
statistical office Indec.
Brazil’s chemicals
producer prices up nearly 12% in
NovemberBrazil’s chemicals
producer prices rose by 11.6% in November,
year on year, the country’s statistical
office IBGE said on Tuesday.
Brazil’s chemicals
output falls in November but annual growth at
2.4%Brazil’s chemicals
output fell in November by 2.1%, month on
month, according to the country’s statistical
office IBGE on Wednesday.
Brazil’s inflation down
slightly but central bank to remain firm on
hiking interest
ratesBrazil’s annual rate
of inflation fell slightly in December to
4.83%, compared with November’s 4.87%,
according to the country’s statistics office
IBGE on Friday.
Mexico’s inflation
keeps falling but rate cuts could slow down
on global
uncertaintyMexico’s annual
rate of inflation fell more than expected to
4.2% in December, down from 4.5% in November,
the country’s statistical office Inegi said
on Thursday.
Brazil’s November base
oils supply exceeds
demandBrazil’s base oils
supply rose in November as a rebound in
imports more than covered for a drop in
domestic output.
PRICING
LatAm PP domestic
prices up in Brazil on currency devaluation,
higher import
tariffDomestic
polypropylene (PP) prices increased in Brazil
on the back of currency devaluation and
higher import tariff. This is the first price
increase since August 2024.
LatAm PE international
prices increase on higher US export
offersInternational
polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed higher
due to more expensive offers from the US.
Speciality Chemicals13-Jan-2025
LONDIN (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Europe
Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from
23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.
Click on a headline to read the full story.
2025 OUTLOOKS SUMMARY
OUTLOOK ’25: Global
fertilizer sector braced for a tricky start
to 2025
The global fertilizer sector is bracing
itself for a bumpy ride moving into 2025 as
it starts the year with high operating costs
and struggling grain markets, making
affordability for farmers and growers a key
concern.
OUTLOOK ‘25: New production capacity expected
to drive the ammonia market in 2025
Ammonia players are expecting more supply to
come onstream in 2025 which could support a
subdued market.
OUTLOOK ‘25: Refining
constraints, Dangote disruption, cracker
closures to shake Europe naphtha
market
After a tumultuous 2024, the outlook for the
naphtha and gasoline markets in 2025 reflects
a complex interplay of supply dynamics,
demand fluctuations, and geopolitical
factors.
OUTLOOK: 2025 will be
critical to Europe pyrolysis oil
scalability
Legislative uncertainty, long commissioning
times and macroeconomic headwinds will
continue to negatively weigh on European
pyrolysis oil market growth and investment
decisions in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Jet fuel
demand poised for take-off despite oversupply
worries
Jet fuel demand in Europe is expected to
maintain an upward trajectory in 2025 despite
a potential supply glut. However, much will
depend on the airline industry’s ability to
navigate through economic and geopolitical
turbulence and its commitment to adopt
sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
ethanol market could face supply challenges
amid demand stability
Mixed harvest yields in 2024 lead as one of
several supply factors that is likely to
shape the European ethanol market in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
biodiesel to face mixed supply, sluggish
blending rates
Evolving supply factors are set to meet
relatively stable-to-low demand in the
European biodiesel market for 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: More of
the same for Europe ethylene,
propylene
The best we can hope for is a re-run of 2024,
European ethylene and propylene market
players say, and there is very little
expectation that Europe’s base case demand
improves in any meaningful way in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
ethanolamines market 2025 expectations
subdued but braced for any supply
shocks
For 2025, similar underlying demand trends
seen in the second half of 2024 are expected
to carry across into the first half of 2025
with sentiment to remain broadly subdued.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PE
faces triple threat of cost squeeze,
overcapacity, longer supply chains
European polyethylene (PE) markets face a
triple whammy of high local costs,
overcapacity globally and the risk of
lengthening supply chains at a time when
global trade flows are threatened by tariff
wars in 2025
OUTLOOK ’25: Economic
woes to continue stifling Turkish PE/PP
demand
Economic concerns continue to dampen demand
expectations for Turkish polyethylene (PE)
and polypropylene (PP) for the first half of
2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Africa
PE/PP players expect year of stagnation on
oversupplied market
Could 2025 finally be the year? A return to
healthy polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene
(PP) demand across Africa?
OUTLOOK ’25: Positive
view for European R-LDPE packaging grades,
other sectors face tough start
Demand for low and high melt flow index (MFI)
grades of recycled low density polyethylene
(R-LDPE) from the packaging sector will
continue to grow in 2025 but
construction-related grades may suffer due to
low end-use market demand.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
R-HDPE packaging/non-packaging divide
deepens
The fragmentation between packaging and
non-packaging grades of Europe recycled high
density polyethylene (R-HDPE) is expected to
continue in 2025, while consolidation risk
across the market remains high – particularly
for companies heavily exposed to the
construction sector.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
R-PP increasingly fragmented by end-use
demand
Demand for Europe recycled polypropylene
(R-PP) has radically diverged by the end-use
market across 2024, and this is expected to
continue in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PP
players eye pain points from old plants,
tariff threats and limp
manufacturing
2024 was dominated by supply-driven dynamics
and 2025 looks unlikely to be much different
for Europe’s polypropylene (PP) market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
Mixed plastic waste demand remains driven by
mechanical recycling in 2025
Europe mixed plastic waste demand will remain
weak for as long as overall industrial
production remains limited by macroeconomic
headwinds.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ACN
set for another year of confined
demand
Downstream demand constraints brought on by
geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges are
anticipated to persist into 2025 for Europe’s
acrylonitrile (ACN) market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BDO
demand pessimism to continue under the gloom
of rising capacities in China
There is a growing sense of apathy among
players in the European butanediol (BDO)
market when it comes to discussing demand
hopes for 2025 as there are no expectations
of an uptick and there is a prevalence of
worry ahead of growing capacity in China in
an already oversupplied market.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe SBR
demand overshadowed by automotive
challenges
European styrene butadiene rubber (SBR)
demand could lift slightly in January on
restocking activity, but there are still
longer-term concerns over the timeline for
recovery of the automotive industry.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ABS
and SAN demand to stay weak, imports unclear
as ABS ADD investigation begins
Demand has been mostly weak throughout 2024
in the Europe acrylonitrile butadiene styrene
(ABS) and styrene-acrylonitrile (SAN)
markets, as downstream sectors have continued
to be impacted by ongoing pressures, and
similar is expected to continue into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe OX
market to see little demand recovery despite
lower interest rates
The European orthoxylene (OX) market is
gearing up for 2025 with the expectation of
stable-to-slightly firmer downstream demand,
in particular from the second quarter
onwards.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PX
demand to remain downbeat in H1 2025 amid
downstream rationalizations,
imports
Paraxylene (PX) demand pessimism in Europe is
expected to continue in the first half of
2025 due to the rationalization of downstream
purified terephthalic acid (PTA) plants in
the region.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe CX,
capro markets face stable, low demand in
2025
The European cyclohexane (CX) and caprolactam
(capro) markets face broadly stable but
overall weak demand in 2025, as a lack of
optimism in key downstream sectors and
ongoing challenging macroeconomic conditions
hit sentiment.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MX consumption to remain
subdued
Downstream requirements for mixed xylenes
(MX) in Europe was limited in 2024 and there
are similar expectations for 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
styrene market squeezed as imports climb,
demand feeble
The European styrene market is expected to
face increased competition and complexity in
2025, requiring players to navigate fragile
domestic supply, a bearish and uncertain
demand outlook, and rising import volumes.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe PS,
EPS demand mostly unchanging, potential PS
import competition
Throughout 2024, the Europe polystyrene (PS)
market has faced stable demand at a low
level, and expandable polystyrene (EPS)
demand has been very weak, as ongoing
pressures have continued to impact downstream
activity in both markets, and 2025 could be
similar.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
benzene market limps into 2025 as supply
surplus, demand uncertainty
prevails
The Europe benzene market is expected to see
generally sufficient supply in the first half
of 2025, with tightness likely only in the
Mediterranean region.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
toluene supply conditions to be in better
shape than demand
Consumption of toluene in Europe ended up
limited in 2024 with supply in relatively in
good condition, with similar views for 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
PET/PTA markets hang by a thread in battle to
survive
The polyethylene terephthalate (PET) value
chain in Europe remains in survival mode as
consumption is negatively affected by
macroeconomics, while costs and logistics
remain challenging.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
R-PET hopes for better year but challenges
remain
Participants across the European recycled
polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market are
hoping for better demand from Q1 2025 after
the Single Use Plastics Directive (SUPD)
comes into force in January, but cheap PET,
imports of R-PET flake and pellet, and
unpredictable consumer spending all pose
potential problems.
OUTLOOK ’25: European
MEG supply more limited at end Q1, demand
expectations bearish
European monethylene glycol (MEG) supply
could be more balanced at the end of the
first quarter or beginning of the second on
turnarounds, but general concerns surrounding
oversupply and slow demand continue to dampen
expectations of a sustained market recovery.
OUTLOOK ’25: Low but
steady demand expected in Europe nylon
market
Europe nylon 6 and nylon 6,6 markets face
ongoing low but overall stable demand in
2025, as key downstream markets are in peril
from persistently challenging macroeconomic
conditions and low end-buyer demand.
OUTLOOK 25’: PVC demand
may return to growth but unlikely to offset
overcapacity
The polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market in Europe
is likely to see a modest recovery in 2025
after demand weakness in 2024, but this will
be offset by excess global capacity and low
utilization rates at existing plants.
OUTLOOK 25’: Last
caustic soda producer to sit down is
out
2025 is likely to resemble a high-stakes game
of musical chairs for European chlor-alkali
producers.
OUTLOOK ’25: Ample
supply for Europe acetic acid and VAM despite
import constraints, outages
Weak demand was the most significant
influence on European acetic acid and
derivative vinyl acetate monomer (VAM)
conditions throughout 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe AA
bracing for ‘more of the same’ for
2025
The Europe acrylic acid (AA) market is
bracing itself for “more of the same” with
the challenges of 2024 set to roll into the
New Year.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
acrylate esters bracing for continued
challenges in 2025
The Europe acrylate ester market is bracing
for the challenges of 2024 to continue into
2025, with added geopolitical and economic
volatility.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe MMA
set to see 2024 challenges continue into
2025
The Europe methyl methacrylate (MMA) is
bracing itself for the challenges seen in
2024 to continue into the New Year.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
PMMA hoping for demand growth, but bracing
for stagnant market
The Europe polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA)
market is bracing for 2025 to be “more of the
same” with the challenges of 2024 continuing.
OUTLOOK ’25: European phenol and acetone
markets face demand stagnation and global
capacity growth in 2025
Fresh global capacity, low domestic demand,
logistics difficulties and volatile
feedstocks will all challenge Europe’s phenol
and acetone markets in 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: European refinery solvents to
track feedstocks in 2025, demand trends
unchanged
In 2025, European refinery solvents markets
will be pinned to the developments in
upstream crude and energy sectors.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe methylene chloride
consumption to remain stable in H1
Demand for methylene chloride (MEC) in Europe
is projected to stay stable at a low level,
as persistent challenges that plagued the
market in 2024 are expected to continue in
2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe EO demand expected to
lift slightly in January
European ethylene oxide (EO) 2025 discussions
largely centred around stable-to-soft
agreements, depending on starting point and
account, at the end of 2024, even as demand
is expected to increase in January.
OUTLOOK ’25: Demand stagnates, capacity
expands in Europe MPG, PO markets
Players in the European mono propylene glycol
(MPG) and upstream propylene oxide (PO)
markets expect familiar challenges, including
oversupply and weak demand, will persist well
into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe polyols and isocyanates
demand recovery handicapped by sluggish
downstream markets
The polyols and isocyanates market in Europe
is finishing 2024 with lethargic consumption,
with 2025 being held back by slow momentum
from major end user sectors.
OUTLOOK ’25: Slow start to 2025 expected in
Europe propylene glycol ethers market, no
significant supply concerns
A subdued start is anticipated in the
European market for propylene glycol ethers
in 2025. Price changes are expected to
continue to be led by availability
fluctuations with few anticipating much
demand recovery in the first half of the year
and potentially beyond.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe butyl glycol ethers
market set for lacklustre H1 2025, focus
remains on availability
The outlook for the European butyl glycol
(BG) and butyl di-glycol (BdG) market is
largely subdued heading into 2025. Despite a
spate of planned maintenances scheduled for
Q1, there is not significant supply concern
in the main.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe BPA market set to
navigate various challenges
The European bisphenol A (BPA) market is not
likely to face an easy ride in terms of
demand in 2025, with no sign of any recovery
in key end sectors, a few lost outlets
structurally and with competition from Asia
likely to remain strong.
OUTLOOK ’25: MA, PA demand weakness ongoing,
H1 supply outlooks differ but Asian reliance
growing
European maleic anhydride (MA) and phthalic
anhydride (PA) markets in Europe will face
similar supply-demand dynamics in 2025 to
those in 2024, with a challenging
macroeconomic environment expected to
continue crippling demand for most of the
year and complex supply scenarios with
difficult logistics continuing.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
melamine still in survival mode amid poor
demand, high production costs
European melamine suppliers remain pressured
by high production costs and low margins
heading into 2025.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe IPA
and MEK supply to remain ample despite import
constraints, capacity consolidation
The European isopropanol (IPA) and methyl
ethyl ketone (MEK) markets were defined by
muted consumption and ample availability for
most of 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe ECH
supply rather than demand under the spotlight
for 2025
Europe epichlorohydrin (ECH) supply rather
than demand is likely to be subject to more
change in 2025, in view of Westlake’s ECH
Pernis plant idling and possible adjusted
trade flows in response to various trade
defense cases and measures.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
fatty acids, alcohols to grapple with ongoing
high feedstock costs in H1
European oleochemicals face another
challenging year ahead, with squeezed fatty
alcohol supply and improved palm-based fatty
acids availability versus elevated feedstock
costs.
OUTLOOK ’25: EU epoxy
players on the cusp of a new normal, pending
EU AD decision
EU Epoxy market players are preparing for a
new normal in 2025 and shifts in sourcing
strategy, based on expected anti-dumping (AD)
duties on Chinese and other Asian product,
but the prospect of a recovery remains slim.
OUTLOOK ’25: Europe
paraffin wax market likely to see minimal
demand recovery
The forecast for European paraffin wax in
2025 is weak, particularly during the first
half. The market is expected to face ongoing
challenges like those experienced in 2024.
OUTLOOK ’25: EU ADD
leverage on Chinese TiO2 imports dimmed by
weak demand
The final EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese
TiO2 imports are unlikely to bring any
domestic support into 2025, despite
profitability struggles in the TiO2 industry,
as the underlying demand outlook remains
bleak.
OUTLOOK ’25: Poland’s
Azoty, Orlen face hard yards on journey back
to health
When in November Poland’s Grupa Azoty fairly
leapt at the chance to move into the
government-backed production of explosives,
it served as a further confirmation of the
deep hole Europe’s second largest fertilizer
maker finds itself in.
Speciality Chemicals13-Jan-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top
stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended
10 January.
Europe chems at
breaking point, urgent action needed –
Cefic
A new report commissioned by Cefic, Europe’s
main petrochemical trade group, highlights
the industry’s dire situation and calls for
swift action to ensure its survival.
Definitive EU ADDs on
Chinese TiO2 imports get green light; graphic
printing inks exempt
Recently modified definitive EU antidumping
duties (ADDs) have officially been applied to
titanium dioxide (TIO2) imports from China
with effect 9 January, except for TiO2
imports used in the production of white
graphic printing inks, according to the
European Commission.
Europe butadiene
outlook fairly positive, at least for H1
2025
European butadiene (BD) market sentiment for
2025 is reasonably positive, particularly for
producers, and especially so for the first
half of the year.
Firming upstream costs
put upward pressure on Europe PX, OX January
contract talks
Europe’s paraxylene (PX) and orthoxylene (OX)
contract price discussions for January will
be impacted by firming feedstock mixed
xylenes (MX) and gas costs, according to
market sources.
Europe PP buyers await
January offers, watch for restocking
signs
Polypropylene (PP) players in Europe are
waiting for offers from sellers to emerge,
with many returning from Christmas and New
Year holidays on 6-7 January.
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