LONDON (ICIS)–The UK economy was weaker than initially thought in Q3 with GDP showing zero growth, according to official data on Monday. There was no growth in the services sector, while a 0.7% increase in construction was offset by a 0.4% fall in production. The Q3 GDP figure was revised down from a first estimate of 0.1% growth, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Quarterly growth has trended down throughout 2024 with GDP at 0.7% in Q1, 0.4% in Q2 and 0% in Q3. On a monthly basis, GDP fell by 0.1% in September and October, according to the ONS. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) held its key interest rate at 4.75% as inflation continued to firm despite weakening industrial activity. Economic growth in the eurozone and EU has been more positive with Q3 GDP rising by 0.4% in both blocs from the previous quarter.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 20 December. Stagnant manufacturing, overcapacity, looming trade war weigh on Europe chems in 2025 Europe’s petrochemical sector will be under even more pressure in 2025 as demand from the region’s manufacturing sector remains in contraction, global overcapacity gets worse and amid the possibility of increased exports from China and the US. Europe melamine December contracts roll over, Q4 contracts rise on margin pressure European December melamine contracts were assessed steady, in line with market feedback. Europe paraxylene December contract price up €5/tonne The Europe paraxylene (PX) December contract reference price rose €5/tonne from November’s levels. German business sentiment weakest since May 2020 German business sentiment dropped to its lowest point since May 2020 in December, according to the latest data from the Ifo Institute on Tuesday. Eurozone private sector closes out 2024 in contraction as manufacturing slows The eurozone private sector ended the year on a bearish note as output contracted driven by a weakening manufacturing sector, which offset a return to growth for services.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 20 December. Study on Oman’s Duqm petrochemical complex to be completed in 2025 By Jonathan Yee 16-Dec-24 15:09 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A feasibility study for a joint venture petrochemical complex in the Duqm Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Oman will be completed in 2025, an official from Oman’s national oil and gas company OQ told ICIS. UPDATE: South Korea bourse closes lower, won softer after Yoon’s impeachment By Jonathan Yee 16-Dec-24 16:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–South Korea’s benchmark stock market index was closed lower on Monday, snapping four straight days of gains, after the country’s parliament impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over the weekend for imposing a short-lived martial law on 3 December. UPDATE: ChemOne’s Malaysia $5.3bn complex start-up delayed to Q4 2028 By Nurluqman Suratman 16-Dec-24 21:21 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–ChemOne Group has delayed the start-up of its $5.3 billion Pengerang Energy Complex (PEC) in Johor, Malaysia to Q4 2028, after facing “complex financing” issues, the CEO of the project’s operator said on Monday. Malaysia Lotte Chemical Titan to shut some PE, PP units in line with cracker shutdown By Izham Ahmad 17-Dec-24 12:30 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan will shut some of its downstream polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) plants to account for a reduction in feedstock after it shuts down one of its crackers in Pasir Gudang, according to market sources. INSIGHT: China economy ends 2024 on mixed note amid Trump 2.0 concerns By Nurluqman Suratman 18-Dec-24 13:07 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s economic data in November were mixed, with weaker retail sales growth offset by some signs of stability in property prices and a slightly quicker industrial output growth, as policymakers brace for more US trade tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office for a second time. INSIGHT: China oil demand to peak in 2026 as transportation fuel drags By Fanny Zhang 19-Dec-24 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China is expected to see its overall oil demand peaking in 2026 amid ongoing changes in the key transportation market, analysts said. Oil prices fall on stronger US dollar, looming US government shutdown By Jonathan Yee 20-Dec-24 11:55 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Oil prices fell sharply on Friday on a stronger US dollar and amid a looming US government shutdown over the failure to pass a budget bill in the House of Representatives. Asia BD imports stay supported by China domestic market bull run By Ai Teng Lim 20-Dec-24 14:31 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Sentiment is buoyant in Asia’s butadiene (BD) import market as sellers chase higher selling targets, emboldened by what they perceive as strong buying power in China. Bank of Japan maintains interest rates as Nov core inflation surges By Jonathan Yee 20-Dec-24 14:50 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept its interest rates unchanged as inflation levels rose to 2.7% year on year in November, raising analyst expectations of a rate hike in Q1 2025.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) has announced the launch of the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity (VACI) program, which is a voluntary certification of the carbon footprint of ammonia production at a specific facility. The VACI is the first program of its kind with the industry group saying it is designed to provide ammonia consumers seeking to reduce emissions across their supply chains with an independent and certifiable carbon intensity score. TFI said the VACI certification framework will standardize the approach for calculating the carbon intensity of ammonia encompassing all aspects of ammonia manufacturing from feedstock production through the finished product at the plant gate. Producers will use the VACI standard to calculate the carbon intensity of ammonia produced at their facilities then an independent, third-party auditor will then verify or validate that the carbon intensity score is accurate. TFI president and CEO Corey Rosenbusch said ammonia is a critical input for both agriculture, emissions control and many commercial products including fabric and pharmaceuticals. “As agriculture and other industries increasingly look to develop more sustainable and resilient supply chains, the Verified Ammonia Carbon Intensity program provides ammonia consumers with certifiable transparency that will allow them to quantify the positive impact using low-carbon ammonia has on their greenhouse gas emissions footprint,” said Rosenbusch. Ammonia production typically uses natural gas as a feedstock for its hydrogen component and is an energy-intensive process with substantial carbon dioxide emissions as a byproduct. Currently there are US ammonia producers who are investing in technologies to dramatically reduce emissions with the VACI enabling them to document the varying levels of emissions reduction these technologies provide. The VACI program was developed by TFI in collaboration with technical industry experts from producers CF Industries, LSB, Nutrien, OCI and Yara with guidance from Hinicio, a strategic and technical consulting firm specializing in hydrogen and its derivatives and industrial decarbonization. Facilities certified under the program include Nutrien at Redwater in Canada and CF Industries in Donaldsonville, Louisiana, with audits that have been completed. Audits for LSB Industries in El Dorado, Arkansas, and CVR Energy in Coffeyville, Kansas, in progress. TFI said the VACI is undertaking a 60-day public consultation period for ammonia consumers and stakeholders to provide feedback on the program and its methodology and intends to refine the program based on comments received.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US surged this week as importers pulled volumes forward ahead of the possible restart of the US Gulf and East Coast port strike and anticipated tariff hikes under the incoming Trump Administration. Rates from Asia to both US coasts had been trending steadily lower since July. Rates from Shanghai to New York began stabilizing in October before surging by almost 17% this week, according to data from supply chain advisors Drewry. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles were falling steadily before jumping by almost 26% this week, as shown in the following chart from Drewry. Drewry has global average rates up by 8% this week, as shown in its World Container Index. Drewry expects an increase in rates on the transpacific trade in the coming week, driven by front-loading ahead of the looming port strike and possible tariffs. Rates at online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos also showed significant increases to both coasts. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, suggested that the pull-forward for the pending strike is largely over as the pre-15 January arrival window has closed. Levine thinks a strike – or at least a prolonged one – is unlikely now that President-elect Trump has backed the union in the dispute. But the anticipation of increased tariffs is still driving some unseasonal volume strength, Levine said. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STABLE Overall, US chemical tanker freight rates were unchanged this week for most trade lanes ex-USG. For the USG to ARA, both spot cargoes and contract of affreightment (COA) nominations to northwest Europe took a slight dip this week, with minimal opportunities quoted but remained relatively flat week over week. COA volumes for January are still pending so it is not clear how much space will be available, but sentiment is that contract business will be strong, making spot space harder to find. Along the USG to Asia route, there was a bit more activity this week with January base oils, ethanol and vegoil requirements being quoted out in the market. The January chemical COAs are showing healthy levels, and most regulars are reporting that space is currently tight on paper. Most market participants expect rates to remain steady for the balance of the year. COA nominations are strong on the USG-Brazil trade lane with still some space available for the end of December. However, several traders were in the market with 10,000 tonnes of caustic soda ex-Point Comfort to Santos for loading on prompt dates. So far, no fixture has been reported yet, leaving this market overall quiet. Additionally, ethanol, glycols and caustic soda were seen in the market to various regions. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Thumbnail image shows a container ship. Photo by Shutterstock

By Patrick Heren LONDON (ICIS)–This is a memory from 30 years ago of an incident, minor in itself, which was, for me, a pivotal moment in the evolution of the competitive gas market. But as it was so long ago, modern readers may need a bit of historical background. Before the appearance of GIF’s forerunner European Gas Markets, free market gas prices were invisible. Wholesale British gas prices were a private contractual matter between offshore gas producers and onshore consumers. Up until about 1990 there was really only one buyer, British Gas, and the output of the dozens of gas fields it purchased were priced according to long term agreements. Prices were set at levels agreed at the time each individual field was developed and they were escalated, usually annually, by a wide range of indices – consumer price inflation, fuel oil, heating oil etc. Prices were confidential, though fairly well known within the industry. The closest we got to transparency was when, once a year British Gas published its wacog, or weighted average cost of gas. In 1994, the year when I first began publishing spot gas prices, the BG wacog was just over 19 pence per therm. By 1994, British Gas had been functionally divided into three: Centrica, the trading, sales and marketing arm; BG, the E&P business, plus international; and Transco (now National Grid Gas), the pipeline operator. The regulator, then known as Ofgas, had decreed that no more than 90% of the output of any new gas field could be sold to the former monopoly. There was, luckily for the producers, a big new market for their gas, and that was the emerging independent power sector. The liberalisation of the electricity supply industry had lagged the gas industry by a couple of years, but once it had begun, 15 or 16 new independent producers built gas fired power stations which of course needed gas. As there was no spot gas market at the time, they all bought North Sea gas on more or less the same terms as British Gas. Ironically, the origins of British spot gas trading lay with some of these long term agreements. Gas was delivered to some IPP’s before the turbines were ready, and the power companies were forced to find alternative buyers – usually the new gas marketers trying to break into the industrial and commercial sector. Of course the prices paid were below the long term contract levels, and it was these confidential spot deals that I had been trying to report since the beginning of 1994. That day, I had just put the December edition of European Gas Markets to bed, and taken a cab over to the BP Christmas press party at Butlers Wharf near Tower Bridge. BP always threw a good party, and the press office ensured there were plenty of senior executives on hand, including board members, to be grilled by us hacks. It was past 2 PM when I arrived, and the party was in full swing, crowded and noisy. I was standing just inside the entrance, trying to get my bearings, when John Browne followed me in. He was then CEO of BP Exploration, and about to become CEO of BP plc. He was also socially awkward and looked slightly intimidated by the noisy throng. I grabbed a couple of glasses of champagne from a passing waiter, gave him one and began to ask questions. Browne politely answered my queries about a variety of subjects – LNG, Russia, power generation – in greater detail than I would have expected. But it was all pretty routine until I put the question that most concerned me. It was the question I asked all gas executives I encountered in those days, a question most of them appeared baffled by. “So, John, how would you feel about selling BP’s North Sea gas on a spot index?” He suddenly became animated, even enthusiastic. “I cannot wait to start selling on a spot gas index!” Browne exclaimed. “Let me tell you what happens now when we find a new commercial gas field. Our people sit down with the people from British Gas, and they have a series of lunches that goes on for a couple of years. At the end of that time, they agree a price that any two intelligent people could have come up with in ten minutes. Then they agree to index it to something completely irrelevant, and I can guarantee you that by the time my gas is flowing across the beach, the price we get for it bears no relation to its value. Sometimes we get less than it’s worth, and sometimes we get more: of course I Iike the more, but I’d much rather sell all of it for its actual market value.” I agreed that this was the wise course, and explained that I was endeavouring to establish just such a gas price index, though without much assistance from the industry, including BP. “I can imagine,” he replied. “The gas market is in the dark ages. But we at BP have survived in the crude oil market for many years, not only survived but prospered – my gas colleagues should reflect on that. I wish you luck!” John Browne glanced at his watch. “Oh dear, I’m late for a meeting of the BP Pension Fund.” And that was that. It took his gassy colleagues many months before they began to get the message. But three months later we launched the Heren Index and the ancestor of ESGM and by the end of 1995, our prices were being written into contracts.

LONDON (ICIS)–A hoped-for recovery in Germany’s chemical industry has been pushed out to 2026, as shown by an industry survey presented at a webinar hosted by chemical producers’ trade group VCI. No recovery before 2026 Chemical production seen flat in 2025 Persistent lack of orders The VCI survey, conducted in November, found that 52% of German chemical companies expect a recovery to only take place in 2026 or later, whereas a previous survey conducted this summer showed that a majority had expected a recovery in 2025. Now, only 22% expect a recovery in the second half of 2025 while 8% expect it to occur in the first half, according to the latest survey As for sales and profits, 33% expect a sales decline in 2025 and 46% expect lower profits. Companies are particularly pessimistic about sales expectations for Germany and Europe, but are less pessimistic about business outside Europe. With nearly every second company expecting falling profits next year, business will remain difficult, said VCI economist Christiane Kellermann. LACK OF ORDERS The share of companies complaining about a lack of orders is around 40%, the same level as at the start of the coronavirus lockdowns in early 2020, she said. Producers have been complaining about a lack of orders since the end of 2022, and there was still no prospect of an improvement, she said. The share of companies stating that a lack of orders was no problem for them and that business was good was “vanishingly small”, she added. New orders were weak both domestically and internationally, she said. LOSS OF COMPETITIVENESS Germany as a place for industrial production is losing competitiveness because of its high bureaucratic costs, high labor costs, high taxes and levies, and high energy costs, she said. Adding to these challenges is rising geopolitical uncertainty, in particular in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the 5 November US presidential election, she said. Companies were trying to determine what Trump’s second term as president will mean for them in terms of trade conflicts and tariffs. They were not only worried about direct tariff impacts, but also about the impact on China where the tariffs are likely prompt producers to ship more product to Europe, she said. As for German politics, there are hopes that a new government next year will address at least some of the challenges the country faces, she said. The coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed last month, and new elections are expected to be held in February. CHEMICAL PRODUCTION TO STAGNATE IN 2025 In 2024, total chemical-pharmaceutical production rose 2.0%, led by a 4.0% increase in chemicals, according to preliminary data, Kellermann said. 2024, percentage change in production, by major segments: Inorganic basic chemicals: +7.0% Petrochemicals: +8.5% Polymers: +4.0% Fine and specialty chemicals: -2.0% Consumer chemicals: +2.0% Pharmaceuticals: -1.5% While some segments saw a significant year-on-year increase in production, the increases did not offset the declines in 2023, she said. Demand for chemicals across industrial customers was weak, especially in Germany, she said. For 2025, VCI currently forecasts that chemical/pharmaceutical production will inch up 0.5%, with chemical production expected to stagnate: Production, year-on-year %-changes   2025 forecast 2024 (based on preliminary data) 2023 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals +0.5% +2.0% -7.9% Chemicals (ex pharma) flat +4.0% -10.4% COMPANIES REACT Companies are reacting to the challenges they face in Germany with a range of measures, Kellermann said. They include restructuring; improvements in productivity and energy efficiency; cost cutting programmess; shifting production abroad; divestments of businesses lines; and plant closures, she said. The country was seeing a permanent shutdown in production, and this trend may accelerate, she added. Only 25% of the chemical companies surveyed expect their investments in plants, equipment and machinery at German locations to increase next year, whereas 40% expect their investments to decline. On the other hand, 46% expect an increase in their investments abroad. Companies were investing, but not necessarily in Germany, Kellermann said. VCI chief economist Henrik Meincke, who also presented at the webinar, said following steady growth in the years after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, “multiple shocks” have hit Germany’s economy and its energy-intensive industrial producers since 2018: 2018/19: US-China trade conflict 2020: Pandemic lockdowns 2020/21: Supply chain crisis 2022: Ukraine war and energy price shock 2023: Inflation, and high interest rates to contain it Germany was currently in a stagflation phase, with core-inflation above 2% – and this has come at a time of enormous political and economic risks as well as the challenge of transforming the economy to net zero-emissions, he said. Thumbnail photo of BASF’s Ludwigshafen site; source: BASF

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Dakota Gasification Company has confirmed that the company and fertilizer producer OCI decided earlier this month to dissolve their joint marketing venture N-7 and that it will begin its own fertilizer sales and marketing beginning 1 February. This move comes after a strategic review by both parties it was determined to dissolve the joint venture, which was focused on selling nitrogen fertilizers, industrial ammonia, urea liquor and diesel exhaust fluid (DEF). Since the partnership formed in July 2018, N-7 has shipped over 26.5 million short tons of product to more than 520 customers in 3,100 cities. The company said it will continue to offer the same products moving forward including ammonia and urea, and rather than reduce their workforce this change has lifted levels. “We have expanded our team with highly skilled professionals to enhance our ability to deliver exceptional products and service to our customers,” said a Dakota Gasification Company spokesperson. The parent company said in a statement the decision reflects a mutual recognition of the unique growth opportunities available to both companies independently. “This partnership allowed us to serve our customers with exceptional products while achieving significant milestones together,” said Daniel Gallagher, Basin Electric commodity sales & trading director. “Dakota Gas remains committed to producing and delivering high-quality products to our customers.” The companies will honor all agreements previously undertaken by N-7 with a spokesperson saying, “the market has responded favorably to our decision”. Netherlands-based OCI has not responded for comment but when the partnership was first announced it had stated N-7 would market and distribute product from Iowa Fertilizer Company, the OCI Partners operations in Texas and the Dakota Gas facility in North Dakota. In addition, it intended to market any imported product from their operations outside North America. Ending the N-7 venture follows the sale of Iowa Fertilizer Company and OCI Beaumont.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–With the 15 January target date for a new master agreement between union dock workers and US Gulf and East Coast ports rapidly approaching, the Alliance for Chemical Distribution (ACD) is urging both sides to push back the deadline. Negotiations between the dockworkers, represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), and the ports, represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), have been stalled as each side is unwilling to budge on issues surrounding automation of ports. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. ACD President and CEO Eric Byer outlined the challenges hindering negotiations and emphasized the significant economic and public consequences of a contract lapse in a letter to both parties. Byer also highlighted the economic impacts the previous three-day strike caused to various industries and the challenges the chemical distribution industry would face if another strike were to occur. Other challenges are the 29 January start of the Lunar New Year, and the upcoming inauguration and transition to the new presidential administration. “In early October, during the three-day lapse in the master contract between the ILA and USMX, there was a substantial economic impact, weeks of supply chain disruptions, and challenges in getting necessary supplies to communities in the wake of the Hurricane Helene disaster,” Byer said in the letter. “Additionally, had the lapse continued for just a few more days, it would have resulted in ACD members losing stock of chemicals used for critical processes, such as water treatment.” In a 12 December post on social media, President-elect Donald Trump expressed his support for the dockworkers in the labor dispute. A strike would not have an impact on liquid chemical tankers, which transport most chems. For most traders and brokers who export polyvinyl chloride (PVC), much of their warehouse space is full and they are unable to book vessels until after the 15 January deadline because of the uncertainty. “This could make for a very challenging first quarter,” ICIS Senior Analyst Kelly Coutu said.