HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 22 August. OUTLOOK: INSIGHT: US chems get regulatory relief amid rail setbacks The US government has slowed down the introduction of new regulations and provided the chemical industry with some significant policy wins, although fostering rail competition had some setbacks. INSIGHT: Global ammonia prices to keep rising on tight supply, improving India, US demand Global ammonia prices are forecast to keep rising through the rest of the year (please see Chart 1 below), primarily on tight supply caused by limited Russian exports and strengthening fertilizer demand in India and the US. CRUDE SUMMARY: Oil rebounds on higher US crude inventory drawdown Crude futures climbed on Wednesday after a larger-than-expected US crude inventory draw signaled stronger demand, while optimism over a rapid Russia-Ukraine peace breakthrough eased. TRUCKING: US July volumes rise from June, but forecasts remain weighted to downside Trucking activity in July rose slightly from the previous month, but forecasts from some analysts still have risks weighted more to the downside than the upside for the rest of the year. US to impose lower tariff on EU imports of chemical precursors The US will impose much lower tariffs on EU imports of chemical precursors, while it will maintain elevated rates on auto imports, according to details released on Thursday of their trade framework. US Fed signals rate cut despite tariff uncertainty, chemical stocks jump US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled an upcoming interest rate cut in his highly anticipated speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, sending economically sensitive stocks such as chemicals higher.

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 22 August. INSIGHT: Europe could draw PP from US in zero-tariff scenario The US could potentially start to export polypropylene (PP) to Europe if tariffs on imports are scrapped, overturning the current status quo of 6.5% duties which largely prevents this trade flow. EU TiO2 industry welcomes ECJ annulment of carcinogen designation The European titanium dioxide (TiO2) industry and key coatings sector are breathing a sigh of relief, after the European Court of Justice’s decision to uphold the General Court’s annulment of the EU TiO2 classification of some forms of the material as carcinogenic. Europe BDO fundamentals remain stagnant but challenges mount amid antidumping probe While the fundamentals of low demand and sufficient supply have yet to change for the European butanediol (BDO) market, players are concerned about the long-term health of the industry, as well as the potential outcomes of the ongoing antidumping investigation by the European Commission into imports from China, Saudi Arabia and the US. INSIGHT: Global ammonia prices to keep rising on tight supply, improving India, US demand Global ammonia prices are forecast to keep rising through the rest of the year, primarily on tight supply caused by limited Russian exports and strengthening fertilizer demand in India and the US. INSIGHT: UK bioethanol plants face closure after government denies bailout post-US trade deal The UK government’s refusal to offer any industry rescue package has effectively delivered the final nail in the coffin for its largest domestic producer, Vivergo Fuels, with its plant now potentially set to cease operations.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 22 Aug. India imposes final duties on PVC imports from seven origins By Aswin Kondapally 18-Aug-25 11:07 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India’s Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) released on 14 August the final findings of its antidumping investigation into imports of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) suspension resins from seven origins. INSIGHT: Global ammonia prices to keep rising on tight supply, improving India, US demand By Bee Lin Chow 19-Aug-25 11:39 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Global ammonia prices are forecast to keep rising through the rest of the year, primarily on tight supply caused by limited Russian exports and strengthening fertilizer demand in India and the US. Asia ACN cost pressure mounts, supply expected to tighten in Q4 By Corey Chew 19-Aug-25 13:17 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia acrylonitrile (ACN) supply is expected to become tight from regional sources in Q4, with the yearly maintenances of South Korea and Taiwan producers commencing in October. INSIGHT: Most Asian petrochemical prices expected to fall in August By Lina Xu 20-Aug-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Most of Asia’s petrochemical prices are expected to fall in August due to the lull in demand in the off season. Northeast Asia market sentiment is forecast to remain bearish for the rest of the summer. UPDATE: S Korea petrochemical firms agree to restructure, cut capacity – govt By Nurluqman Suratman 20-Aug-25 15:36 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Ten South Korean petrochemical firms have agreed to restructure their operations which will include cutting their overall annual naphtha-cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tonnes, government statements said on Wednesday. US tariff hike to dent India VAM imports By Hwee Hwee Tan 21-Aug-25 10:46 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–India’s demand for vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is contracting as the garment industry – one of the largest end-user segment for the product – took a hit from the threat of a doubling in US tariff. INTERVIEW: Indonesia’s Butonas planned $1bn methanol plant to reduce import reliance – president By Jonathan Yee 21-Aug-25 13:19 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Indonesia’s fledgling Butonas Petrochemical is preparing a 1 million tonnes/year methanol plant in Bojonegoro, East Java, to fill the country’s domestic demand and national energy goals from 2029, according to the company’s president Ignatius Tallulembang. INSIGHT: China’s ethylene industry focuses on enhancing competitiveness By Amy Yu 22-Aug-25 12:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China-based producers are moving to close more inefficient ethylene units, such as older, more polluting, and economically unviable ones, as part of a drive to increase the competitiveness of the sector.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Rates for shipping containers from east Asia and China to the US continued to fall this week, with rates to the US West Coast nearing where they were when carriers began avoiding the Red Sea because of attacks by Houthi rebels. The sudden move to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal in November 2023 forced carriers to use the much longer route around the southern tip of the African continent and sent rates soaring because the longer voyage tightened capacity. Rates to the USWC from supply chain advisors Drewry fell by 3% this week, as shown in the following chart, and are now just about $75/FEU (40-foot equivalent unit) higher than in November 2023. Container rates continue to fall as transpacific trade is experiencing a weak peak season after many retailers pulled forward volumes to get ahead of US tariffs, and capacity is ample even as carriers use blank sailings and other tools in efforts to support the falling rates. Drewry expects rates to be less volatile in the coming weeks as shippers respond to a decelerating US economy and increased tariff costs by scaling back on procurement. Drewry is still forecasting rates to fall further in the second half of the year as it anticipates the supply-demand balance to weaken further. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos fell by 8% to the West Coast and are about $140/FEU from where they were in November 2023. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said daily rates are level with where they were at the start of the Red Sea crisis. The SCFI Shanghai-USWC rate fell 4% week on week to $1,759/FEU and is now down 69% since 1 June amid sluggish peak season demand, despite carrier efforts to curb capacity on the route. Container ships and costs for shipping containers are relevant to the chemical industry because while most chemicals are liquids and are shipped in tankers, container ships transport polymers, such as polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), are shipped in pellets. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) is also shipped in containers. They also transport liquid chemicals in isotanks. LIQUID TANKER RATES STEADY-TO-LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were steady lower this week with rates on the transatlantic route edging lower on the high side as most trade lanes are facing downward pressure. The route to NW Europe remains relatively inactive and a tighter position list has kept the rates firm. Several market participants were seen quoting styrene and methanol to the region. There have only been a few cargos fixed. There continues to be downward pressure on rates along the USG-Asia trade lane as charterers are still in wait-and-see mode. Besides COA (contract) cargo there is very little seen in the market.  Also, there are very few new spot enquiries, therefore the shorter tonnage list supports the rates. The usual spot cargoes of methanol from Jose to China are the only ones reported, leaving methanol requirements from the region active to Asia. From the USG to Brazil, this trade lane remains unusually quiet and in turn rates seem to have steadied. Fewer fixtures were noted this week, and the lack of prompt availability seems to indicate supply is somewhat tight and therefore owners appear to be cautious about letting rates decline any further. The USG to India route has not seen an uptick in inquiries over the last week with no confirmed fixtures, leading to lower rates along this trade lane. There was only one new inquiry for September dates. Along with the other regions, freight rates are widely viewed as softer. Additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

LONDON (ICIS)–A mix of regulatory changes, market fundamentals and global economic factors is transforming the Asian biodiesel and glycerine markets. In this latest podcast, Asia biodiesel editor Evangeline Cheung and glycerine senior editor Helen Yan joins their Europe counterpart Nazif Nazmul to share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. Firm palm oil fundamentals and regulatory support strengthen biodiesel market despite mixed demand Recent drop in glycerine spot prices linked to a slump in China’s epichlorohydrin (ECH) market Market awaits further clarification on EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), impact on US tariff-led oleochemical trade follow Biodiesel, which can be derived from vegetable oils, animal fats and other waste-based bio-feedstocks, is used as fuel in diesel engines. Glycerine is mainly used in personal and oral care products such as skincare creams, toothpaste and mouthwash. It is also used in food products, either as glycerine directly or one of its derivatives such as glycerol monostearate.

LONDON (ICIS)–With tariff rates between most countries and the US now agreed in principle, the landscape ahead remains rocky, with little hope for recovery in the near future as players struggle with overcapacity and low utilization rates. Global trade increasingly driven by politics Years of low inflation have distorted markets by allowing unprofitable companies across sectors to stay in business Global trade terms clearer but impacts to supply chains still unfolding Demographic shifts continue to rise up policymaker agendas Trade relationships and path of AI development are key factors for the sector in future At current trajectory, chemicals down-cycle could run for years In this Think Tank podcast, Insight Editor Tom Brown interviews John Richardson from the ICIS market development team and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting. Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. ICIS is organising regular updates to help the industry understand current market trends. Register here . Read the latest issue of ICIS Chemical Business. Read Paul Hodges and John Richardson’s ICIS blogs.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Japan’s core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food prices, eased to 3.1% in July,  down from the 3.3% reading in June, official data showed on Friday. Headline inflation, which includes all items, also dropped to 3.1% in July from 3.3% in June, which is the lowest reading since November 2024. Japan’s “core-core” CPI, excluding prices of both fresh food and energy, stabilized at 3.4% year on year, remaining above the Bank of Japan (BOJ) inflation target of 2.0% for the 40th month running and supporting a rate hike in October.   On a year-on-year basis, Japan’s GDP expanded by 1.2% in the April-June period, slowing from the 1.8% growth in the preceding quarter. A trade deal reached with the US on 23 July will apply a 15% blanket tariff on all Japanese exports, from 25% previously. However, overall shipments abroad declined for the third straight month, falling 2.6% year on year in July, amid US auto tariffs that are yet to be reduced to 15% from 25% currently despite a deal being reached.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The US will impose much lower tariffs on EU imports of chemical precursors, while it will maintain elevated rates on auto imports, according to details released on Thursday of their trade framework. The US did not specify the precursors. However, it does import benzene, paraxylene (PX) and methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from the EU among other chemicals. Thursday’s announcements provide details about the commitments each side made under last month’s more general agreement. US COMMITMENTSThe US will cap many EU imports at a 15% tariff rate or at its most favored nation (MFN) rate – whichever is higher. The US will not stack the 15% tariffs on top of the MFN rates. The US will cap its tariff to 15% on EU imports of pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber. These imports would have otherwise been subject to any additional tariffs that the US imposes following the investigations it is conducting under Section 232. The US will lower its tariffs on EU imports of automobiles and auto parts to 15% once the EU eliminates tariffs on all US imports of industrial goods. Until then, the US will continue to impose its Section 232 tariffs of 25% on these imports. Other tariffs can bring the total rate to up to 27.5%. There are some imports on which the US will impose the typically lower MFN rate instead of the 15% duty. The following producers qualify for this lower tariff rate: Chemical precursors. The US and the EU did not specify the precursors. The average MFN rate on US imports of chemicals is 2.7%. Natural resources that are not available in the US, such as cork. All aircraft and aircraft parts. Generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients. The US will consider other imports that could fall under the lower MFN rate. The US will preserve its 50% tariffs on steel, aluminium and derivatives that it imposed under Section 232. However, it and the EU will consider cooperating on ring-fencing their domestic markets from overcapacity while ensuring secure supply chains between each other. This could include tariff-rate quotas. EU COMMITMENTSThe EU plans to eliminate tariffs on all industrial goods from the US. The EU said the reduction will save importers almost €5 billion. The EU plans to import $750 billion worth of US imports of LNG, crude oil and nuclear energy products through 2028. The EU intends to buy at least $40 billion of artificial intelligence (AI) chips from the US for its computer centers. The EU will invest an additional $600 billion into what the US considers its strategic sectors through 2028. The US did not identify these strategic sectors. The EU will substantially increase purchases of military and defense equipment from the US. The agreement did not specify an amount. The EU intends to provide preferential market access to a wide range of seafood and agricultural products from the US, such as tree nuts, dairy products, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, planting seeds, soybean oil, pork and bison meat. The EU plans to extend an earlier 2020 agreement to cover lobster and processed lobster. The EU and the US will work to address what the US considers to be non-tariff barriers on imports of food and agricultural products. These steps could include things like streamlining requirements for sanitary certificates for pork and dairy products. The EU said sensitive agricultural products such as beef, poultry, rice and ethanol are not covered by its offer. “From the outset, our position has been that liberalization from the EU side does not concern any sensitive agricultural products,” the EU said. The EU will recognize that some commodities from the US pose little risk to global deforestation, and it will address US concerns about the bloc’s EU Deforestation Regulation. The European Commission will provide more flexibility to its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and address US concerns about the effects that the regulation will have on small and medium businesses. OTHER EU COMMITMENTSThe EU will take steps to prevent the prevent any reductions in US imports that could be caused by the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) and the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). The EU will consult with the US on digitization of trade procedures and implementing legislation being proposed on EU Customs Reform. AREAS OF JOINT ACTIVITIESThe US and EU will find ways to reduce or eliminate non-tariff barriers. The two will negotiate an agreement on cybersecurity. The two will cooperate on their response to China’s export restrictions on critical minerals. The two will cooperate on protecting and enforcing intellectual property as well as eliminating forced labor in their supply chains. The two sides will not adopt or maintain network usage fees or impose customs duties on electronic transmissions as part of a move to address unjustified digital trade barriers. Thumbnail image: The flags of the US and EU (Image source: Shutterstock)

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Trucking activity in July rose slightly from the previous month, but forecasts from some analysts still have risks weighted more to the downside than the upside for the rest of the year. The monthly increase followed a decrease in June, according to the American Trucking Associations’ (ATA) advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index and as shown in the following chart. Bob Costello, ATA chief economist, said increased housing starts and retail sales drove the July increase, with manufacturing output flat to down depending on the metric. “July truck tonnage increased sequentially, but did not erase the 0.7% decline in June,” Costello said. “Since March, truck tonnage has been in a tight range. The good news is truck freight volumes haven’t fallen much over that period, but we are not seeing many increases either.” The index, which is based on 2015 as 100, slipped 0.1% from the same month last year after falling 0.4% in June. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2024, tonnage was unchanged. The not seasonally adjusted index, which calculates raw changes in tonnage hauled, equaled 116.8 in July, 1.9% above June’s reading of 114.6. Both indices are dominated by contract freight, as opposed to traditional spot market freight. The June Freight Index – Shipments report from Cass Information Systems, shown below, showed a slight decrease as the trade war is having a variety of effects, with a few waves of pre-tariff inventory building and subsequent drawing down. “The trade war is having a variety of effects, with a few waves of pre-tariff inventory building and subsequent drawing down, but volumes were steady from May,” Cass said. The index could fall by 5% year on year on the normal seasonal pattern but could exceed seasonality given the recent rise in imports. Looking forward, Cass said visibility remains highly dependent on policy developments and legal challenges. “The uncertainty has lowered the economic outlook, and pre-tariff inventory building will lead to destocking regardless of the outcome of trade negotiations in the coming months,” Cass said. “The effects of tariffs may worsen, as higher goods prices reduce affordability and real incomes. With this outlook, the cycle upturn for the transportation industry remains elusive.” The Trucking Conditions Index (TCI) from FTR Transportation Intelligence, which combines five major conditions in the US full-load truck market into a single index, fell in June to its lowest of the year, as shown in the following chart. The big drop in June was due primarily to freight rates and fuel prices, FTR said, and the expectation is for trucking conditions to be much closer to neutral during most of the second half of 2025. Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said swings in freight volume and fuel prices – and to a lesser extent, freight rates – continue to generate volatility in trucking conditions. “So far, the economy is weathering tariffs and other stresses better than anticipated, and our latest freight outlook is not as weak as it was previously,” Vise said. “At least in the near term, though, we still believe forecast risks are weighted more to the downside than the upside.” Over-the-road transportation is the most common method of domestic chemical transportation, accounting for about 60% of the volume shipped, according to the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Truck transportation has a typically lower cost than other modes, and offers more flexibility (eg, less reliant on set schedules, like trains or airplanes). Some chemical companies have their own fleet of trucks while others use for-hire carriers.