News library
Subscribe to our full range of breaking news and analysis
Viewing 1-10 results of 57347
Petrochemicals16-Sep-2024
NEW YORK (ICIS)–It has been a long time coming
and there is plenty more time before the
chemical industry finally sees a meaningful
upturn in the durable goods cycle, in turn
giving a much-needed boost to commodity
chemicals, according to Jefferies.
“We expect demand stabilization in 2025, with a
restock cycle and a rate-driven durables goods
cycle in 2026-2027 to set the stage for the
next period of tight commodity chemical
supply/demand balances – MDI (methylene
diphenyl diisocyanate) and methanol first, in
our view, then acetyls, then olefins,” said
Laurence Alexander, analyst at Jefferies, in a
research note.
In his base case scenario, the analyst sees US
durable goods demand flat to down 3% in 2025
and up around 10% in 2026.
The anticipated turn in the cycle for housing
and durable goods would be a strong catalyst
for shares of Eastman, Huntsman, Avient and
DuPont, he pointed out.
For chemicals in the near term, Alexander
expects Q3 2024 to show a return to “normal
seasonality” and Q4 volume outlooks to be
trimmed 1-2% on more caution on the Christmas
spending season – especially in Europe – as
well as automotive production this winter.
TRIMMING OUTLOOK FOR
CELANESEGiven the softer
near-term outlook, the Jefferies analyst also
trimmed his earnings per share (EPS) estimates
on Celanese for Q3 (by $0.06 to $2.84), Q4 (by
$0.05 to $3.09) and for 2025 (by $0.10 to
$10.40).
“Credit easing is likely needed to trigger a
demand rebound, and any tailwind from an
improved credit environment will likely not be
evident until mid-2025 at the earliest,” said
Alexander.
“Although destocking has faded, demand trends
remain broadly sluggish with few signs of a
recovery. European demand has yet to trough,
North America is flattish and the recovery in
Asia has been muted,” he added.
By end-market, he sees electronics likely
rebounding but at a slower pace until consumer
confidence improves and automotive production
accelerates.
Consumer durables and construction demand is
likely to remain soft into next summer.
And automotive demand is muted overall, with
headwinds to production schedules likely in the
near term. Longer term, he expects better
momentum in electric vehicle (EV) sales in
China.
Focus article by Joseph Chang
Ethylene16-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News from the week ended 13 September.
INSIGHT: Wall Street reaction to
Methanex/OCI deal negative on valuation,
leverage
Methanex’s announcement that it will acquire
OCI Global’s international methanol business
for $2.05 billion drew a swift negative initial
reaction, with its stock price plunging 7.9% at
the close of its first day of trading after the
announcement.
Storm Francine veers path, could
potentially hit petchems hubs in west
Louisiana
Storm Francine continues strengthening into a
hurricane as it approaches the southern costs
of the US, but its path could veer slightly
west and potentially hit key petrochemicals
sites in Louisiana which border with Texas.
US chem, oil operations begin shutting
ahead of storm Francine
Some chemical and upstream oil and gas
companies are shutting down operations ahead of
Tropical Storm Francine, which is expected to
strengthen into a hurricane on Tuesday night
and make landfall along the US coast of
Louisiana on Wednesday or Wednesday night.
Francine strengthens into hurricane,
heads for US Gulf Coast
Francine has strengthened into a hurricane and
is moving northeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico, with landfall expected in Louisiana,
US, on Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Louisiana chemical plants shut down as
Hurricane Francine nears landfall, major
capacities at risk
Several chemical companies are shutting down
plants in Louisiana, with others taking other
precautionary measures as the eye of Francine –
now a Category 2 hurricane – approaches the
coast for imminent landfall.
Hurricane Francine passes over
Louisiana parish with many chem
plants
Ascension parish, home to Geismar and its many
chemical plants, was among the regions hardest
hit by Hurricane Francine, which has caused
hundreds of thousands of power outages.
SHIPPING: Asia-USEC container rates
plunge by 20% as shippers avoid possible ILA
strike
Average global rates for shipping containers
fell significantly this week, including a 21%
decrease from Shanghai to New York, as shippers
are shifting cargo deliveries to the US West
Coast to avoid the planned strike on 1 October.
Speciality Chemicals16-Sep-2024
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories
from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on
13 September.
NEWS
Argentina
chemicals, industrial July output falls as
industry bears brunt of
recession
Argentina’s chemicals and manufacturing outputs
fell in July by 5.4% and 2.6% year on year,
respectively, as the industrial sectors remain
the most affected by consumers’ squeezed
budgets.
Argentina’s
progress on fiscal consolidation still
challenged by inflation –
economist
The Argentinian’s government attempt to turn
the economy around has had certain successes in
the fiscal front, but high inflation is still
challenging the outlook as it continues to eat
up on gains elsewhere, according to an
economist at Buenos Aires-based Fundacion
Capital.
Brazil’s
Petrobras launches natural gas processing unit
in Rio de Janeiro
Petrobras has begun start-up procedures for
Brazil’s largest natural gas processing unit
(UPGN) in Itaborai, near Rio de Janeiro, the
state-owned energy major said on Wednesday.
Brazil’s
inflation breaks upward trend in August, but
some subsectors keep rising
Brazil’s annual rate of inflation fell to 4.24%
in August, down from 4.50% in July, but
analysts pointed to how some price rises in
certain sectors continue unabated.
Mexico inflation
falls below 5% in August, paves way for more
interest rate cuts
Mexico’s annual rate of inflation fell quite
considerably in August to 4.99%, down
from July’s 5.57%, a development which is
to reinforce the next cut to interest rates
later this month, according to analysts.
Argentina’s
August inflation falls below 240% but monthly
price increases remain over
4%
Argentina’s annual rate of inflation fell in
August to 237%, down from July’s 263%, but
monthly price rises stood over the 4% mark, the
country’s statistical office Indec said this
week.
Dutch Nouryon
expands sodium chlorate capacity in Brazil,
starts up new site
Nouryon has expanded its sodium chlorate
capacity in Brazil by starting up a new
manufacturing site in Ribas do Rio Pardo, state
of Mato Grosso do Sul, the Dutch chemicals
producer said on Tuesday.
Petrobras, Gerdau
sign MoU for decarbonization
projects
Brazil’s Petrobras and steelmaker Gerdau have
signed a non-binding Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) to evaluate commercial
opportunities in decarbonization initiatives,
the Brazilian energy major said this week.
PRICING
LatAm
PP international prices steady to lower on
cheaper imports
International polypropylene (PP) prices were
assessed as steady to lower across Latin
American countries due to competitive offers
from abroad and lower US propylene spot prices.
LatAm
international PE prices steady to lower on
cheaper offers from abroad
International polyethylene (PE) prices were
assessed as steady to lower across Latin
American countries due to cheaper offers from
abroad.
Latin America PVC
business monitors potential supply tightening
due to maintenance in Q3
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin
America remained steady this week, with the
market closely watching US Gulf prices for
potential changes in pricing strategies.
Global News + ICIS Chemical Business (ICB)
See the full picture, with unlimited access to ICIS chemicals news across all markets and regions, plus ICB, the industry-leading magazine for the chemicals industry.
Speciality Chemicals16-Sep-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories
from ICIS Europe for the week ended 13
September.
Customers more willing to
pay green premium as net zero transition
gathers pace
Chemical companies will find it easier to
charge a green premium as the cost of carbon
increases, fossil feedstock availability
declines and customers realize the true value
of the products they are buying.
Global oil demand growth
lowest since 2020 on China slowdown
Global crude oil demand continued to decelerate
in the first half of the year, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) said on
Thursday, with consumption growth of 800,000
bbl/day year on year the weakest since 2020.
IPEX:
Index falls in August as weak demand, softer
crude put downward pressure on chemical prices
in Asia
The ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) was down
1.3% in August month on month as weak
downstream demand and softer upstream crude oil
costs continued to exert downward pressure on
chemical prices in northeast Asia.
Europe PX, OX spot prices
tumble on softer Asian market, lower contract
values
Europe paraxylene (PX) and orthoxylene (OX)
spot prices plummeted week on week in the week
ending 6 September, on the back of softer
values in the influential Asian market and
lower domestic contract prices, respectively.
Demographic drag on
chemicals to deepen
A continuing flow of poor economic data caused
further stock market jitters in September, and
as the prospect of a meaningful recovery in the
global economy recedes into next year, new
analysis suggests that the demographic drag on
growth may be stronger than previously thought.
Crude Oil16-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s value-added
industrial output growth in August slowed down
to 4.5% year on year from the previous month’s
5.1%, official data showed.
In August, equipment manufacturing contributed
47.9% of the total growth in industrial output,
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
said on 14 September.
Value-added industrial output consists of
manufacturing, mining, as well as industrial
enterprises.
Almost 80% of industries and over 50% of
products had year-on-year growth in August,
according to NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua.
Meanwhile, August retail sales increased by
2.1%, down compared with a 2.7% growth in July.
Unemployment in urban areas grew to 5.3% in
August from 5.2% in the previous month. In the
first eight months of 2024, the unemployment
rate averaged 5.2%.
“Adverse impacts” from changes in the external
environment are increasing, despite the
economy’s general stability, the NBS said.
Domestic demand has been insufficient, it
added, noting reforms and policy measures need
to be sped up to address growth and recovery.
Crude Oil16-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Typhoon Bebinca made landfall
early Monday in China’s financial hub of
Shanghai, bringing strong winds and torrential
areas to the region.
The storm made landfall at around 07:30 local
time (11:30 GMT) on Monday in the coastal area
of Lingang New City in Shanghai’s Pudong
region, the China Meteorological Administration
said.
The typhoon was packing maximum winds of around
151 kilometers/hour near its center.
Following its landfall, Bebinca is expected to
lose strength and become a tropical storm as it
moves northwestward across southern Jiangsu
province on Monday.
It will further weaken into a tropical
depression and eventually dissipate as it
passes over Anhui province by the afternoon of
17 September.
Bebinca is the strongest storm to hit Shanghai
since Typhoon Gloria in 1949, according to
state news media.
Shanghai, a city with a population of 25
million, activated its highest level of
emergency response on Sunday.
This included halting railway services, closing
ports, bridges, and highways, and cancelling
all flights at its two airports.
These disruptions are occurring during China’s
three-day Mid-Autumn Festival public holiday
which began on Sunday.
China’s State Flood Control and Drought Relief
Headquarters on 15 September activated the
Level IV emergency response for east China’s
Anhui Province and raised the response in
Shanghai and Zhejiang to Level III.
Level IV is the lowest emergency response
level, indicating a potential threat but not an
immediate crisis.
Typhoon Bebinca was on the heels of Super
Typhoon Yagi, which recently devastated Hainan
Island in southern China, resulting in extensive damage.
Yagi then continued its destructive path into
northern Vietnam and
Thailand, causing floods and damaging
infrastructure.
Thumbnail image: A man walks a street
during heavy rain amid Typhoon Bebinca in
Shanghai, China on 16 September 2024. Shanghai
has closed its seaports and canceled over 600
flights in preparation for Typhoon Bebinca.
(ALEX PLAVEVSKI/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
Gas16-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from
ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week
ended 13 September 2024.
Asia
LAB struggles amid crude oil weakness; Q4
supply to tighten
By Clive Ong 13-Sep-24 13:40 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Asia’s linear alkylbenzene (LAB) market
remains in the doldrums with sentiment staying
cautious following recent slippages in crude
oil prices, while supply could tighten in the
fourth quarter.
INSIGHT: China-US trade
tensions build as anti-dumping cases
increase
By Fanny Zhang 12-Sep-24 18:35 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–The US has become the top target of
China’s anti-dumping cases for chemical
imports, underscoring growing trade barriers
between the world’s two biggest economies.
Saudi
Arabia fosters closer ties with China; Aramco,
Chinese firms sign fresh deals
By Nurluqman Suratman 12-Sep-24 12:39
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Energy giant Saudi Aramco has
signed new agreements to advance separate
expansion plans with Chinese petrochemical
producers Rongsheng and Hengli.
China Aug petrochemical markets tumble; weak
demand persists
By Yvonne Shi 11-Sep-24 16:38 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Domestic prices of most petrochemicals
in China declined in August due to weak demand
and new capacity, with not much improvement in
market conditions expected throughout
September.
Asia solvent MX facing headwinds in Sept amid
various bearish factors
By Jasmine Khoo 10-Sep-24 12:13 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Within Asia, trading activity for
solvent grade mixed xylenes (MX) in certain
import markets like southeast Asia is poised to
take a hit going forward into the later part of
September.
Heavy rains, floodings continue in north
Vietnam in Yagi’s wake
By Nurluqman Suratman 09-Sep-24 16:42 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Heavy rains and floodings continued in
northern Vietnam on Monday, two days since
Super Typhoon Yagi made landfall in the region
and killed more than 20 people.
UPDATE: Sumitomo Chemical to close two
Singapore MMA/PMMA lines by end-Sept
By Nurluqman Suratman 11-Sep-24 12:48 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Sumitomo Chemical will close two of its
three production lines for methyl methacrylate
(MMA) monomer and polymethyl methacrylate
(PMMA) in Singapore by the end of September
this year, the Japanese producer said on
Wednesday.
PODCAST: Weak fuel LPG demand to weigh on China
2024 propane/butane imports
By Lillian Ren 11-Sep-24 10:50 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–ICIS has revised down its forecast for
China’s combined imports of propane and butane
for 2024 because of weaker-than-expected demand
in fuel applications. Wang Yen, Senior Analyst
speaks with Lillian Ren, analyst on the China
propane, butane and LPG markets.
UPDATE: Indonesia starts ‘safeguard measures’
probe into LLDPE imports
By Izham Ahmad 10-Sep-24 18:09 SINGAPORE
(ICIS)–Indonesia has initiated an
investigation as to whether “safeguard
measures” would be needed in response to a
sharp increase in imports of linear low density
polyethylene (LLDPE), its trade ministry said.
Ammonia13-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Fertilizer developer Genesis
Fertilizers announced it has partnered with
technology provider CARBONCO and has agreed to
negotiate formal licensing and process design
package services for a carbon capture and
storage (CCS) project.
Genesis said this collaboration marks a
significant step toward the potential
production of sustainable, low-carbon ammonia
and urea nitrogen fertilizer for their farming
partners and the broader fertilizer industry in
North America.
Under the terms CARBONCO would be responsible
for implementing a solution capable of
capturing approximately 1 million tonnes of
carbon dioxide annually, which would then be
transported directly to a sequestration hub.
If implemented, the CCS project would be built
at the proposed Genesis Fertilizers production
complex to be constructed in Belle Plaine,
Saskatchewan, Canada.
The company said both parties are confident
that this first-of-its-kind CCS project would
play a pivotal role in supplying exceptionally
clean grain to the market.
“In line with our ultimate low carbon intensity
fertilizer goal, Genesis Fertilizers has been
working with CARBONCO and is pleased to welcome
them as our technology provider to explore an
exciting opportunity to implement their carbon
capture solution,” said Jason Mann, Genesis
Fertilizers CEO.
“We believe that CARBONCO is the most suitable
partner for our project, offering a robust
solution that meets our technical and
commercial needs.”
The front-end engineering design (FEED) phase
for Genesis Fertilizers project is expected to
begin within the next few months.
The company said the final investment decision
will be made based on the results of the FEED
work and other critical steps, but it is aiming
to commence commercial operations by 2029.
As proposed there would eventually be both
ammonia and urea production with plans to have
75% of output locked into farmer commitments
with the balance sold on the open market.
Genesis has previously said the goal of this
development is to help farmers have access to a
vertically integrate fertilizer supply and
enable the production of low carbon grain.
Ammonia13-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–As the remnants of what was
Hurricane Francine continues to inundate and
bring severe weather threats to parts of the
southern US, the fertilizer industry in
Louisiana was back in action on Friday having
emerged mostly unscathed by the storm.
Having escaped any confirmed property damage,
with the largest obstacle the loss of power,
plant facilities were said to be back online,
with fertilizer producers including Nutrien
having confirmed the lack of impact from
Francine which made landfall on 11 September.
Most of the problems faced in the last few days
have been delayed and halted logistics given
the fierce winds and heavy rains along with the
brief stoppage of railroad and port operations.
A common refrain was echoed by a producer
source who said, “we had some logistical issues
but no physical damage”.
In Donaldsonville fertilizer producer CF
Industries was heard to be back in production
and loading supply as the storm brought some
disruption to their transportation schedule.
The company has not commented during this event
but as a trader said, “CF now back running.
Barges likely to get sorted over the weekend
and river likely to be back open”.
With the port in New Orleans (Nola) back in
operation there was also further urea barges
business done with expectations of a
significant period of post-harvest application
over the upcoming weeks not washed away by the
recent weather.
Harvesting campaigns have taken a hit and will
be delayed for several days, possibly even
longer depending on rainfall amounts.
The concern is with a delay in these activities
it creates an additional lag for starting
post-harvest field activities like end of the
year fertilizing.
The real impact of this storm and its
subsequent sway on domestic fertilizer
direction likely comes once the extent of crop
damage is understood, with the storm having
arrived as there was considerable acreage
nearing maturity or being harvested across
several states.
Lost of yields causing a reduction in income
could mean a decrease in buying for immediate
supply or reduced interest in pre-pay
commitments.
Contact us
Partnering with ICIS unlocks a vision of a future you can trust and achieve. We leverage our unrivalled network of industry experts to deliver a comprehensive market view based on independent and reliable data, insight and analytics.
Contact us to learn how we can support you as you transact today and plan for tomorrow.