LONDON (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Chemicals & The Economy by Paul Hodges, which looks at the rising impact from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and this year’s hurricane season. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS. Paul Hodges is the chairman of consultants New Normal Consulting.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 5 July. Hurricane Beryl strengthens and shifts path, expected to hit Texas’ Corpus Christi Hurricane Beryl is expected to post a “slow re-intensification” as it heads towards the north and could potentially hit Texas’ industrial hub of Corpus Christi by Monday. Mexico’s Altamira petrochemicals players breathe sigh of relief as Beryl weakens Fears that Hurricane Beryl could cause widespread disruption to petrochemicals production in the Altamira hub, in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, have now subsided as the hurricane weakens on its path through the Caribbean. Hurricane Beryl expected to weaken after hitting Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula Hurricane Beryl, which until 3 July was a powerful Category 5 hurricane, weakened to Category 3 by Thursday morning as it headed towards the Mexican peninsula of Yucatan. INSIGHT: Chem shipping to get break from Panama Canal, tariff front-loading The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is allowing more traffic to pass through the waterway, while the rush to ship goods before the start of tariffs should end soon – all of which should give chemical shippers some relief from elevated freight costs. US June auto sales fall from May on high prices, interest rates, cyber-attack, but could grow in H2 US June sales of new light vehicles fell from May, but total sales in the second quarter showed a modest improvement over Q1, according to data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Rethinking business models for resilience in a fragile world to drive M&A – DC Advisory Chemical companies are in many ways rethinking their business models to become more resilient in a fragile and volatile operating environment, potentially leading to more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, an investment banker said. US manufacturing remains in contraction but chemicals healthy US manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory in June but output in the chemicals sector was healthy on the back of healthy new orders, the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM’s) purchasing managers’ index (PMI) survey showed on Monday.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the week ended on 5 July. NEWS Mexico’s Altamira petrochemicals players breathe sigh of relief as Beryl weakens Fears that Hurricane Beryl could cause widespread disruption to petrochemicals production in the Altamira hub, in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, have now subsided as the hurricane weakens on its path through the Caribbean. Brazil’s Braskem still facing logistical woes at Triunfo facilities Brazil’s polymers major Braskem is still facing some logistical challenges at its facilities in Triunfo, in the floods-hit state of Rio Grande do Sul, according to a letter to customers seen by ICIS. Brazil’s automotive 2024 output expected lower as ‘uncontrolled’ imports keep rising Brazil’s automotive trade group Anfavea this week downgraded its forecasts for production in 2024 due to ever-rising vehicle imports – mostly from China, with several producers signing a letter to the government asking for higher import tariffs on cars. US dominates base oils exports to Brazil with around 75% market share The US remains the largest exporter to the Brazilian base oils market, with the country’s lead widening in 2024, according to an expert on Tuesday. INSIGHT: Chem shipping to get break from Panama Canal, tariff front-loading The Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is allowing more traffic to pass through the waterway, while the rush to ship goods before the start of tariffs should end soon – all of which should give chemical shippers some relief from elevated freight costs. Brazil’s manufacturing recovers but faces pressure on currency depreciation Sales growth in Brazil’s manufacturing is being dented by challenging economic conditions, currency depreciation and order postponements after the floods crisis, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Mexico’s manufacturing expands in June but new export orders, job creation fall Mexico’s manufacturing expanded in June and remained practically stable from May on the back of factory orders rising, which kept production healthy, analysts at S&P Global said on Monday. Colombia’s manufacturing remains in contraction in June Colombia’s manufacturing sectors remained in contraction territory in June as a further decline in new orders led to reduced output, analysts at S&P Global said on Tuesday. Colombia’s fiscal plans based on ‘rosy’ growth assumptions – analysts Plans presented by the Colombian government to reduce its fiscal deficit are based on “rosy” assumptions for growth and are likely to be missed, according to analysts. PRICING Higher hydrous ethanol prices reflect strong sales performance Hydrous ethanol prices rose this week, reflecting ongoing strong sales performance in the market. Surging PET prices in Brazil and Mexico for July Prices for PET in Brazil experienced an upward trend during the first week of July, driven by the ongoing rise in international freight rates. This increase reflects the continued influence of escalating global shipping costs on the local market for PET resin. Innova amends July PS price increase in Brazil Innova amended a price increase to Brazilian real (R) 1,200/tonne ($218/tonne), excluding local taxes, on all grades of polystyrene (PS) sold in Brazil, effective 4 July, up from previously announced R750, according to a customer letter.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Squeezed by high propane costs and weak propylene prices, some Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) operators are turning to a potential lifeline: commercializing hydrogen, a valuable byproduct of their operations. Join ICIS LPG analysts Lillian Ren and Shihao Zhou as they discuss how commercializing hydrogen could turn the tide for China’s PDH producers. They’ll delve into current market challenges, the potential of hydrogen as a lifeline, and what this shift could mean for the future of the industry.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s Hengli Group is planning to invest yuan (CNY) 9.2 billion ($1.3 billion) into its shipbuilding business at Dalian in Liaoning province, the company said on Monday. Its subsidiary Hengli Heavy Industry will build a shipbuilding capacity of 1.8 million deadweight tonnes (DWT) each year and 1.8 million tonnes/year of steel processing capacity at Changxin Island in Dalian City in northeastern China, the company posted on its account on WeChat, a Chinese social media platform. An agreement was signed on 7 July between Hengli Group and the local governments of Dalian City and Changxin Island on the investment. The investment will expand the Group’s building capacity of ultra-large carriers of crude and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), container vessels, offshore floating storage and drilling facilities. Separately, Hengli Heavy Industry on 3 July inked a deal to build six 325,000 DWT ore tankers for Singapore’s shipping firm Winning International Group. The shipping company in September 2023 had ordered two WinningMax carriers from Hengli. Hengli Group entered the shipyard business in 2022 through the acquisition of STX (Dalian), the Chinese unit of South Korea’s STX Group. Hengli Group is parent of Hengli Petrochemical. ($1 = CNY7.27)

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 5 July. Shell to post up to $2 billion in impairments in Q2 results Energy major Shell on Friday said that it expects to book $2 billion in post-tax impairments following the sale of its Singapore assets and the suspension of construction at its biofuels plant in the Netherlands. European Commission imposes China EV tariffs citing ‘unfair’ subsidies The European Commission is to move forward with proposed plans to impose tariffs of nearly 40% in some cases to China-manufactured battery electric vehicles (BEVs), citing a level of state subsidy it terms as “unfair”. Global phenol demand expected to rise, driven by downstream growth Global phenol demand is expected to increase by about 1.9% in 2024 after a weak 2023, supported by growth in the key downstream bisphenol A (BPA) market. Europe cracker margins down on firmer naphtha, LPG costs Europe cracker margins went down week on week on the back of firmer feedstock costs, ICIS margin analysis showed on Tuesday. Eurozone manufacturing momentum ebbs in June as demand deteriorates Eurozone manufacturing sector activity slipped further into contraction in June as demand slowed in most of the bloc’s largest economies, while conditions improved in the UK.

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 5 July 2024. OUTLOOK: Snug import supply supports Asia MEG amid slowing demand By Judith Wang 03-Jul-24 11:52 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Monoethylene glycol (MEG) import supply in Asia for July is expected to stay snug in the near term, while demand looks set to slow down. INSIGHT: Methanol or ethylene, that is the question for China By Doris He 02-Jul-24 17:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–China’s methanol-to-olefins (MTO) industry has always been a focus of attention among methanol market players, as it accounts for half of overall demand. More attention has recently been shifted to ethylene, from the overall margins of a typical MTO plant in coastal regions. OUTLOOK: Asia nylon markets may slow down in H2 2024 on lengthened supply By Charmaine Lim 01-Jul-24 14:40 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Nylon markets in Asia are expected to slow in H2 2024 compared to the first half of the year as the upcoming seasonal lull in Q3 approaches, with new capacities planned to start up in China this year. S Korea antidumping probe on China SM extends to Sept, discussions and hearings ongoing By Luffy Wu 01-Jul-24 15:22 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Korea Trade Commission is continuing with its anti-dumping probe against styrene monomer (SM) imports from China, with some discussions and hearings between the government and market players heard ongoing. PODCAST: China oxo-alcohols to face supply-demand pressure, new capacity to be a focus By Claire Gao 01-Jul-24 19:24 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–In this podcast, ICIS analyst Claire Gao explores the oxo-alcohols market overview and outlook. OUTLOOK: Persistent economic woes dampen Asia chemical freight demand By Hwee Hwee Tan 02-Jul-24 12:03 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s chemical freight demand is dampened as macroeconomic doldrums were pulling back spot trades well into the third quarter despite reducing plant capacity losses for key liquid bulk products.

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Tropical storm Beryl is expected to make landfall by Monday between Corpus Christi and Freeport, Texas, the homes to several chemical plants and refineries as well as two of the nation’s major terminals that export liquefied natural gas (LNG). Tropical storm Beryl is 195 miles (315 km), south southeast of Matagorda Bay, with maximum sustained winds of 65 miles/hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. It should become a hurricane later on Sunday and continue strengthening before making landfall by early Monday in the middle of the Texas Gulf Coast. The following map shows the forecasts path of Beryl. Source: National Hurricane Center BERYL THREATENS PETCHEMS, LNG TERMINALSPetrochemical plants and complexes as well as refineries, LNG terminals and oil-exporting operations are with the center’s hurricane watch zone, which includes Corpus Christi, Victoria and Freeport. The rest of the Texas coast is subject to a tropical storm warning. Corpus Christi is home to petrochemical plants, refineries, an LNG terminal and major crude oil exporting operations. Freeport is home to an LNG terminal and several petrochemical plants, including Dow’s major complex. PORT OPERATIONS THREATENEDThe National Hurricane Center also issued a storm surge warning that covers Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. In regards to US oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) has not issued any reports. Thumbnail shows Beryl. Image by National Hurricane Center.

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl is expected to post a “slow re-intensification” as it heads towards the north and could potentially hit Texas’ industrial hub of Corpus Christi by Monday. On 4 July, the US National Hurricane Center had said Beryl had weakened from a category 5 hurricane to a category 3 and was expected to become a storm thereafter. However, on Friday, as the Hurricane brought havoc to Yucatan, the NHC said it could strengthen again once it hits sea waters, making it stronger as it heads to make another landfall in Texas. “Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend,” said the NHC on Friday morning. “Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is expected as Beryl moves farther inland and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula today, but slow re-intensification is expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico.” Moreover, the Houston area – an eight-million-strong metropolitan area – could also now be subject to a significant impact, although analysts at Space City Weather said on Friday the impact “will be mostly manageable locally”. PETROCHEMICALS, ENERGYWhile the Altamira petrochemicals hub in the Mexican state of Tamaulipas was spare from the worse, industrial assets in Texas may not have the same luck. The current pathway projected by the NHC implies that Beryl would make landfall in Texas right in the Corpus Christi area, where major refining and petrochemical assets are located. In addition to being a refining and petrochemical hub, Corpus Christi is a major oil-exporting port and hosts a terminal that exports liquefied natural gas (LNG). If Beryl finally disrupts US LNG exports, that could have a knock-on effect on petrochemical prices by shutting down one of the eight LNG export terminals in the country. If the disruption lasted long enough, prices for natural gas would fall. Lower gas prices would drag down those for ethane, the main feedstock that US crackers use to produce ethylene. Petrochemical producers could benefit from lower feedstock costs. Meanwhile, as Beryl strengthens again, energy companies in Texas may choose to shut their plants as a precaution, as well as oil and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico. Major US oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ports could also be touched by Beryl now, which could potentially cause major disruption in supplies. THE WEEKEND IS KEYSpace City Weather said that where Beryl ultimately makes landfall will depend on how far the high-pressure system is over the southern US retreats. The landfall location is “complicated by the contour of the South Texas coastline, which is very nearly north-south relative” to the Gulf of Mexico. “Regarding Houston, I would love to be able to tell you with certainty that Beryl will make landfall near or south of Corpus Christi. I truly think that will be the case. But as Beryl’s track has moved significantly in the last 24 hours that is not something I can guarantee you,” concluded analyst Eric Berger. Source: US National Hurricane Center