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Polycarbonate06-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the
latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections
by John Richardson: If this wasn’t so
critically important, I’d be getting bored by
now in telling the same old story. As today’s
blog confirms it is the same story in the
engineering or higher-value polymer
polycarbonate (PC), as it is many other in
chemicals and polymers.
In 1992, China, with a 22% share of the global
population accounted for 3% of global demand.
By the end of this year, we expect China to be
responsible for 47% of global demand from an
18% share of the global population.
Here we go again: Events in China
(demographics, debts, its geopolitical
relationship with the West and the rise in
China’s chemicals and polymers capacity) mean
that today’s chemicals world is very different
from the past.
Are you still not convinced? Then consider
these ICIS PC data points:
During the1992-2021 Chemicals Supercycle,
China’s demand growth averaged 17% per in year.
In 2022-2030 we are forecasting this will drop
to 3%.
In 1992-2023, China accounted for 76% of
global net imports of PC among the regions and
countries that imported more than they
exported. China’s percentage shares of global
net imports have been falling since 2021, the
year of the Evergrande Moment.
The ICIS base case predicts China’s net PC
imports will average just 460,000 tonnes a year
in 2024-2030 compared with 1.1 million tonnes
during the peak years of 2010-2023.
But 460,000 tonnes assume an operating rate of
just 47% compared with the long-term average of
68%. Raise operating rates closer to 68% and
you end up with China as a net exporter.
There is, however, a scenario where China
struggles to directly export chemicals and
polymers where it is not already an established
player. This could apply to PC.
In 2023, 83% of Taiwan’s PC production, 41% of
Thailand’s production, 34% of South Korea’s
production and 26% of Japan’s production was
dependent on exports to China. A valid question
therefore seems to be: What should these
countries do next?
What would it take to return to the very
healthy average global PC operating rate of 83%
in1992-2023?
Assuming no change to our base case assumption
on production (the same as demand), global
capacity would have to fall by an average
138,000 tonnes per year versus our forecast
that capacity will instead grow by 153,000
tonnes each year.
What might be the answer for producers in
countries such as South Korea? Becoming more
differentiated than their Chinese competitors
as they emerge as winners in the fourth
industrial revolution: Sustainability.
Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion
piece. The views expressed are those of the
author, and do not necessarily represent those
of ICIS.
Crude Oil06-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Transportations of chemical
cargoes in southern China’s Hainan province
were halted since 5 September ahead of the
landfall of Typhoon Yagi.
Operations at ports, trains and highways were
closed to brace for the typhoon, which is
expected to make landfall at Wenchang in Hainan
or in the adjacent Guangdong province on Friday
afternoon or evening, according to China
Meteorological Administration (CMA).
It will then move west to Guangxi province and
is expected to make another landfall in
northern Vietnam before weakening, it said.
The storm will bring in super strong winds with
speed of 60-65 meters per second and heavy
rainfalls, CMA said.
In the island province of Hainan, Sinopec has
mobilized all staff to stand by for any
emergency caused by Yagi on Friday morning, a
company source said.
Hainan has evacuated more than 410,000 people
as of 9:00 hours (01:00 GMT) on Friday and
authorities targeted to compete evacuation of
thousands more by 11:00am, according to the
provincial government.
In Guangdong, the direct hit is expected to be
in Zhanjiang City, where schools, shopping
malls, construction works and ports in the city
were ordered shut since 10:00 hours on 5
September.
Elsewhere in the province, only light rains are
expected.
A Foshan-based petrochemical trader, meanwhile,
said that cargoes continued to be delivered on
Friday.
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate06-Sep-2024
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The weakening of the US
dollar against major currencies in Asia since
August will continue to strain exports of
recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET),
recycled polyethylene (R-PE), and recycled
polypropylene (R-PP).
Fewer September deals expected as buyers
resist changes in currency conversion
Importers of recycling feedstock benefit
from weakening of US dollar
Asian recyclers wary of interest cuts by
the US Fed
Asian recyclers were largely relieved to see
downward correction on container freight costs
in August, but the ease in transportation costs
were countered by foreign exchange
fluctuations.
Exporters of recycled polymers from key markets
such as Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia
have struggled to close deals for September
loading.
Buyers were resisting the strengthening of
major Asian currencies against the US dollar,
resulting in an impasse in spot negotiations.
A strong currency makes exports less
competitive as buyers continue to use the US
dollar for transactions in both term and spot
commitments.
As of 02:05 GMT, the Thai baht and the
Indonesian rupiah registered the biggest
month-on-month gains against the US dollar
among four currencies of major Asian exporters.
Exchange rates versus $1
Currencies
6 Sept (As of 02:05 GMT)
% appreciation (month on month)
Japanese yen (Y)
143.29
2.5
Thai baht (Bt)
33.56
5.8
Indonesian rupiah (Rp)
15,389.10
4.6
Malaysian ringgit (M$)
4.34
3.4
Source: www.xe.com
Recyclers, on the other hand, have been
unwilling to lower their prices amid high
production costs and eroded margins.
Due to this, majority of recyclers in the
region expect September spot negotiations to be
lower than that of August.
“Our buyers [of R-PET flakes] within Asia were
strongly resisting higher prices and they
prefer to halt negotiations than to shoulder
the foreign exchange fluctuations,” a
Thailand-based R-PET producer said.
A few buyers hedging their exposure to foreign
exchange volatility were still able to secure
spot quantities, but majority of buyers are not
hedged.
On the other hand, Asian recyclers which
purchase US dollar-denominated feedstock
benefited from the exchange rate fluctuations.
Asian recyclers expect export volumes to remain
dampened and are concerned about interest rate
cuts by the US Federal Reserve.
As regional recyclers continue to position
themselves as net exporters of R-PET, R-PE and
R-PP, currency fluctuations and decisions by
the Federal Reserve retain great implications
to overall trade from Asia.
Focus article by Arianne Perez
Thumbnail image: A 10,000-Japanese yen note
and $1 US dollar notes, 3 July 2024. (Taidgh
Barron/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock)
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Ammonia05-Sep-2024
TORONTO (ICIS)–Canada’s Liberal-led minority
government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
is paying a heavy price for its decision last month
to end the labor dispute at freight railroads
Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific
Kansas City (CPKC) through binding arbitration.
The left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) on
Thursday confirmed that it cancelled a “supply
and confidence agreement” from 2022 under which
it supported the Liberals, which hold only a
minority of parliamentary seats.
The NDP is close to labor trade unions and had
warned Trudeau repeatedly not to intervene in
the dispute.
In a televised press conference on Thursday,
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said the government’s
intervention added to “mounting evidence” that
the Liberals were “too beholden to corporate
interests”, making it impossible for the NDP to
continue supporting them.
Singh alleged the railroads had “colluded” to
set up a scenario in which both companies were
in a labor dispute at the same time, and that
they had negotiated in “bad faith”.
Instead of allowing the dispute to be settled
through the collective bargaining process, the
government, by ordering binding arbitration,
awarded the companies for their conduct, he
said.
After a four-day freight rail shutdown at both
CN and CPKC last month, the government directed
a labor tribunal to end the shutdown and settle
the dispute through binding arbitration.
Freight rail service resumed on 26 August.
From now on, the NDP’s voting in parliament
would be case-by-case, based on what the party
deems best for workers and families, Singh
said.
Voting non-confidence would be “on the table”
and an early election was now more likely, he
said.
If the NDP joins the Conservatives and other
opposition parties in voting against the
government on the next confidence measure, the
government will fall and an election has to be
held.
Seats in parliament (total:
338):
Liberals
Conservatives
Bloc Quebecois
NDP
Others
154
119
32
24
9
Political commentators said that the NDP
cancelled the agreement as it needed to
distance itself from the Liberals, who after
nine years in government are unpopular and are
far behind the Conservatives in opinion polls.
Singh rejected suggestions that by ending the
agreement with the Liberals he was opening the
door to a Conservative government.
The NDP would be running against both Liberals
and Conservatives, he said.
Trudeau would “always cave to corporate greed”,
and the Conservatives, if elected, would be
worse, he said.
The Conservative Party, which is supportive of
Canada’s oil and gas industry, has pledged that
if elected it would immediately abolish the
consumer carbon tax implemented by the
Liberals.
There is a possibility that the Liberals may
now look to opposition party Bloc Quebecois
(BQ) for support – the BQ is advocating for
Quebec to secede from Canada and become an
independent nation.
Rail labor union Teamster Canada welcomed the
NDP’s decision to stop supporting the Liberals.
The union has filed court
challenges against the government decision
to end the labor dispute through binding
arbitration.
Meanwhile, total Canadian freight rail traffic
– intermodal and railcars – fell 5.8% year on
year for the week ended 31 August.
Industry officials have said it may take weeks
for supply chains to normalize after last
month’s shutdown.
The following table by the AAR shows total
Canadian freight rail data for the week ended
31 August and for the first 35 weeks of 2024:
In Canada’s chemical industry, producers rely
on rail to ship more than 70% of their
products, with some exclusively using rail.
Thumbnail photo of Prime Minister Justin
Trudeau meeting students at college in Ontario
in May; photo source: Government of Canada
Gas05-Sep-2024
European traders asked to pay difference
for capacity booked prior to a sharp tariff
increase
The increase could wipe out transit on
Trans-Balkan route
Ukrainian TSO GTSOU says the latest
increase could lead to a revenue reduction for
Moldova
LONDON (ICIS)–Traders have lashed out at the
Moldovan gas grid operator Vestmoldtransgaz
(VMTG) for being asked to pay higher
transmission tariffs for capacity booked prior
to the
price hike on 1 September.
At least ten companies active regionally and
local traders who booked monthly or quarterly
capacity for gas sourced in southern Europe and
transiting Moldova to Ukrainian storage have
been asked to pay the difference between the
old and the new tariffs.
Traders say the increase is wiping out the
competitiveness of one of the most attractive
regional transit routes and will block Moldova
and Ukraine’s access to non-Russian gas
supplies in southern Europe.
An international trader told ICIS that beyond
hurting the economic viability of the route the
decision would also put a major burden on
Moldovan consumers, who will have to face ever
soaring bills.
Another trader said the increase would hit the
entire region.
He questioned why VMTG increased tariffs by 50%
since it hadn’t made any recent investments and
the transmission assets it now operates have
long been amortised.
MOLDOVAN LOSSES
In a letter sent to the Moldovan regulator, the
ministry of energy, VMTG and the Energy
Community and seen by ICIS, the Ukrainian gas
grid operator GTSOU said reverse flows along
the Trans-Balkan route linking southern Europe
to Ukraine had ‘significantly facilitated
cross-border trading opportunities in the
region.’
VMTG, a company majority-owned by the Romanian
grid operator, Transgaz, took over Moldova’s
transmission operations in September 2023
following a government and regulator push to
divest transmission from incumbent Moldovagaz.
The transfer of operations via the lease
agreement
was pushed through after Gazprom,
Moldovagaz’ majority owner, repeatedly
requested the delay of transmission unbundling.
Immediately after the switchover, VMTG
requested a tariff increase, which was approved
by the Moldovan regulator.
This year VMTG has requested a further rise,
with entry tariffs
increasing from Moldovan Lei 20.9/MWh/h
(€1.08/MWh/h) to Moldovan Lei 30.7/MWh/h
(€1.59/MWh/h) on 1 September. Exit tariffs have
also risen from Moldovan Lei 22.3/MWh/h to
Moldovan Lei 35.5/MWh/h (€1.85/MWh/h).
GTSOU said in the letter that the sharp tariff
increase requested by VMTG combined with an
increase in transmission tariffs in
neighbouring transit country Romania has led to
utilisation rates for the route dropping from
83% in 2023, prior to VMTG’s takeover, to 10%
in 2024.
The Ukrainian operator calculated that prior to
the first VMTG tariff transit costs to ship gas
from Greece to the Grebenyky on the border with
Ukraine were around €3.00/MWh.
Following the first rise, the overall cost rose
by 67% to €5.00/MWh, while now it has increased
to €6.7/MWh, with Moldova being the most
expensive transit country in the region and
possibly across Europe, traders say.
The Ukrainian grid operator said the latest
increase would ‘worsen’ the situation and lead
to a revenue reduction for Moldova.
A source close to GTSOU said VMTG could
alleviate the situation by introducing
comparatively cheaper short-haul tariffs
bridging cross-border points.
ANRE, Transgaz and VMTG did not reply to
questions by publication.
Petrochemicals05-Sep-2024
MUMBAI (ICIS)–Indian petrochemical major
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) has won in the
bid to get government incentives to produce
advanced chemistry cell (ACC) batteries, which
can be used in electric vehicles (EVs).
Government incentives worth $431 million
RIL chosen out of seven in tender process
Construction of RIL ACC battery project in
Gujarat ongoing
The company will get Indian rupees (Rs) 36.2
billion ($431 million) worth of incentives
under the government’s production-linked
incentive (PLI) scheme, India’s Ministry of
Heavy Industries said on 4 September.
RIL bested six other bidders in the global
tender process for the incentives in building
an ACC plant with a 10 Gigawatt-hours (GWh)
capacity, it said.
The other bidders were ACME Cleantech
Solutions; Amara Raja Advanced Cell
Technologies; Anvi Power Industries; JSW Neo
Energy; Lucas TVS; and Waree Energies.
RIL is currently constructing an ACC-based
battery manufacturing plant in Jamnagar in the
western Gujarat state.
“We have already begun construction of an
integrated advanced chemistry-based battery
manufacturing facility with a 30 GWh annual
capacity at Jamnagar,” RIL chairman Mukesh
Ambani had said during the Indian
conglomerate’s annual general meeting (AGM) on
29 August.
“Production will commence by the second half of
next year,” Ambani added.
The plant will initially assemble battery
systems and packs, later expanding to cell
manufacturing and chemical production, he
added.
ACC batteries can store and convert electric
energy and are used in a variety of
applications, including electric vehicles
(EVs), renewable energy storage, consumer
electronics, and as power backup.
EVs and associated battery markets provide
growth opportunity for the chemical industry,
with chemical producers separately developing
battery materials, as well as specialty
polymers and adhesives for the
environment-friendly vehicles.
In May 2021, the Indian government set aside
Rs181 billion for a National Programme on ACC
battery storage to encourage development of the
battery storage ecosystem and electric mobility
in India.
In the first round of the ACC PLI bidding in
March 2022, three beneficiary firms were
allocated a total capacity of 30 GWh.
Ola Cell Technologies, Rajesh Exports Ltd and
RIL subsidiary Reliance New Energy Solar Ltd
won the bid in the first round.
The fourth company that was initially awarded
incentives was eventually disqualified, paving
the way for rebidding of the unawarded 20GWh
capacity, according to local media reports.
Focus article by Priya Jestin
($1 = Rs83.98)
Speciality Chemicals04-Sep-2024
HOUSTON (ICIS)–The collectively bargained
contract between US East Coast and US Gulf
ports and dock workers expires at the end of
the month and the parties are not currently
negotiating, leading one of the nation’s
largest retail trade groups to urge the
government to get involved.
Last week, both parties submitted documents
with the US Federal Mediation and Conciliation
Service (FMCS) informing the agency of a
dispute between the parties, as required by
law.
About 14,500 dock workers are represented by
the International Longshoremen’s Association
(ILA), while the 36 ports – including three of
the busiest ports in the US in Houston, New
York and New Jersey, and Savannah, Georgia –
are represented by the United States Maritime
Alliance (USMX).
The looming work stoppage would have major
impacts on the US economy, and the National
Retail Federation (NRF) has urged both sides to
resume negotiations.
“At a time when inflation is on the downward
trend, a strike or other disruption would
significantly impact retailers, consumers and
the economy,” NRF President and CEO Matthew
Shay said. “The administration needs to offer
any and all support to get the parties back to
the table to negotiate a new contract.”
In June, NRF led a coalition of 158 state and
federal trade associations in a letter to
President Joe Biden urging the administration
to work with the negotiating parties to reach a
new agreement.
The NRF said that the threat of a strike during
the peak shipping season has many retailers
already implementing costly mitigation
strategies, such as shifting deliveries to West
Coast ports.
This adds additional costs because of the
longer routes, which could be even more drastic
as capacity for ocean carriers is already tight
because of diversions away from the Suez Canal
and Red Sea.
USMX said in a statement on its website that it
is seeking a return to the bargaining table.
“USMX has still been unable to secure a meeting
with the ILA to resume negotiations on a new
master contract,” according to the statement.
“USMX continues to meet with its members in
preparation for the resumption of negotiations,
and it remains committed to working with the
ILA leadership on a new agreement.”
The ILA is holding Wage Scale Committee
meetings today and tomorrow in Teaneck, New
Jersey, and union president Harold Daggett
insists the union will strike at 00:01 Eastern
Time on 1 October if a deal is not reached.
“There is a real chance we will not have an
agreement in place,” Harold Daggett said in a
video shared on the ILA website.
“The ILA will definitely hit the streets on 1
October if we do not get the kind of contract
we deserve,” Daggett said.
Dennis Daggett, ILA executive vice president,
said in the video that the two sides are at an
impasse and cannot even get past the economics
of a new contract.
Other issues that the ILA cites as
deal-breakers are container royalty (special
payments to compensate longshoremen for
decreased employment opportunities resulting
from the use of containerized shipping), better
healthcare benefits, and a ban on all automated
and semi-automated services at the ports.
Dennis Daggett said the ILA has been working
through local agreements between locals and
individual ports before focusing on the overall
agreement and still has some items to work out
at the local level, including Mobile, Alabama,
and Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida.
Market participants have said a strike by
dockworkers would not have much of an impact on
liquid chemical tankers.
One reason is that most terminals that handle
liquid chemical tankers are privately owned and
do not necessarily use union labor.
Also, tankers do not require as much labor as
container or dry cargo vessels, which must be
loaded and unloaded with cranes and require
labor for forklifts and trucks.
But more liquid chemicals are being moved on
container ships in isotanks.
Focus story by Adam Yanelli
Visit the ICIS Logistics – impact on
chemicals and energy topic
page
Ethylene04-Sep-2024
BUENOS AIRES (ICIS)–For years, Latin American
petrochemicals companies have been trying to
increase diversity within to better represent
the consumers they want to sell their products
to – without much success.
Company boards and middle management levels
continue to be mostly populated by men, and
most of them tend to be white, in a region
where ethnic minorities are sometimes the
majorities.
The environmental, social, and governance (ESG)
mantra has been used so many times that it has
become a bit futile. A few statistics to show
off positive trends are one thing – real change
is another.
Companies need to go the extra mile to be as
plural as society. And in some Latin American
countries like Brazil, that mostly means one
thing: blackness, in the country outside Africa
with the largest black population.
They will need to hire and promote people who
will not conform to the norm; visionary people
who will be wise enough to know a company will
not reach its sales potential until they try,
at least, to resemble the society they operate
in.
Brazil’s polymers major Braskem – the largest
petrochemicals producer in Latin America –
seems to have found one of those people: meet
Debora Ferraz, global senior HR manager at the
company and specialist in diversity, equity,
and inclusion (DE&I) issues.
“My job is not only about gender inequality,
although that is still a big part of it, of
course. My job goes much further than that and
it involves making Braskem more like the
country: in Brazil, 50% of the population are
black or have black roots,” said Ferraz.
“We have now established a system in which the
HR person looking to hire will not see in what
university the candidate coursed his or her
studies. Before, we always ended up hiring
people who were anything but plural: they all
spoke English, they all came from the same
universities. Behavior is now the key element
in our hiring processes.”
Ferraz went on to say that in Braskem’s Mexican
operations, a country with painful statistics
showing sexism is women’s everyday life, a
hiring process will not go ahead if there is
not at least one woman shortlisted.
In Europe, where nationality is probably the
biggest factor determining discrimination,
Braskem pays more attention to that; in the US,
it is veterans of war, many of whom find
themselves lost in a competitive labor market
after 20 or 30 years of service, she said.
Ferraz was speaking to delegates at an event
about sustainability organized by the Latin
American Petrochemical and Chemical Association
(APLA). Her talk captivated the audience, and
it was recurrently referred to thereafter.
RACISM: LONG
SHADOWBrazil is Latin America’s
largest economy, with 220 million consumers,
and it is a case increasingly studied when it
comes to racism and discrimination. The shadow
of four centuries of Portuguese Empire rule,
where enslaved black Africans composed the
bread and butter of the workforce, have left a
mark present still today, in all aspects of
life.
“The black and brown [Brazilians with black
roots] populations represent 9.1% and 47% of
the Brazilian population, respectively. Yet,
the share of these population is lower in the
indicators that reflect higher levels of life
conditions,” said a report by Brazil’s
statistics office IBGE in 2022.
“This indicator already shows a disadvantage of
those populations when inserting in the labor
market. The proportions of the black and brown
populations among those unemployed and
underutilized are higher than what they
represent in the labor force,” it added.
Racism is so ingrained in Brazil that when the
country officially abolished slavery in 1888,
the last nation in the western hemisphere to do
so, it gave no rights worth the name to its
black population and even decided to go as far
as Italy or Japan to look for the workers it
needed to feed its nascent industrial sectors.
Hence the large Japanese or Italian minorities
present in the country, who were allowed to
integrate fairly well and some of whom went on
to build business empires, quickly becoming
part of the economic fabric.
Meanwhile, blacks remained at the favelas,
Brazil’s famous shanty towns, only mixing with
the non-black population when they went to do
the badly paid jobs, many times in the informal
economy.
Fernando Henrique Cardoso, the Brazilian
center-right president who stabilized the
economy in the 1990s and gave way to the
successes of President Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva in his first and second terms
(2001-2011), has become a reference in racism
studies.
A quote by Cardoso lies in one of the walls of
Sao Paulo’s Museu Afro-Brasil, which only
opened its doors in 2004 and is a painful
journey through Brazil’s most shameful past, a
quote which sums up why the
integration of all Brazilians will be
a long-term and laborious enterprise.
“An economic system which was based in slavery
and violence for four centuries creates a
deformed society,” said Cardoso.
And a deformed society will invariably take
many decades – hopefully not centuries – to be
fixed. Companies like Braskem should make more
efforts to bring people like Ferraz in but,
most importantly, listen to what they have to
say and follow their advice – Ferraz is black
herself, and without doubt she will have
suffered racism.
“We need to aim to have a good representation
of society within the company. To get serious
with this, we must have quantitative targets:
we can do continuous training with employees,
but if we don’t set clear targets, nothing will
be achieved,” said Ferraz, who has been in her
current post since 2022.
“Up to that year, 30% of our workforce was
black but that figure had not changed in the
preceding 15 years, no matter how many
trainings we did. Since 2022, that figure has
increased to 37%. What has changed? That we set
clear targets, and we are fighting hard to
achieve them. I speak monthly with the CEO and
with other board members, because they are the
first ones who must believe in this.”
Speaking at the same panel, Paola Argento, head
of diversity at Argentina’s energy and
petrochemicals major YPF, corroborated that
until a company does not employ a plurality of
workers – each of them feeling free enough to
bring its own singularity to the workplace – a
company will not reach its potential.
“If we all come from the same universities, the
final product we offer will not be innovative.
Plurality allows us to produce better products
and services. These days, most consumers do
care about these issues, so the lack of
plurality and innovation will end up negatively
affecting sales,” said Argento.
“But to achieve this true plurality of
thinking, the highest executives at a company
have to understand it and be fully behind it.”
The APLA sustainability event runs in Buenos
Aires on 4 September.
Front page picture source: Brazil’s
statistics office IBGE
Insight by Jonathan Lopez
Speciality Chemicals04-Sep-2024
LONDON (ICIS)–Europe chemicals shares and
public markets slumped on Wednesday in the wake
of sell-offs in Asia and the US on the back of
growth fears and a crude oil sell-off.
Stock exchanges in Asia and the US crashed on
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for the
second time in less
than a month after another market rout,
with weak
economic data from the US and China once
more ringing alarm bells.
BEARISH US INDICATORS
As was the case during the early August rout,
bearish economic data from the US stoked market
fears of a slowdown in the country, which has
proven the most resilient large mature economy
during the slump of the last few years.
The US manufacturing sector contraction
deepened in August, according to purchasing
managers’ index (PMI) data collected by S&P
Global, showing a drop from 49.6 in July to
47.9, with future indicators pointing to
potential further deterioration ahead.
“There is a worrying narrowing of the pockets
of strength,” said ING chief international
economist James Knightley, commenting o the
numbers.
“Just 22% of industry is experiencing rising
orders and just 17% are seeing rising
production. Historically, this weakness in
output and orders points to a sharp slowing in
GDP growth,” he added.
The August figures are the latest warning
signal on economic momentum in the country,
following an unexpected decline in manufactured
goods orders in June, according to the US
Census Bureau in early August, the most recent
data available.
As was the case in last month’s market crash,
tech stock slumps led the US declines on
Tuesday. While sector declines last month
had been driven by growing scepticism over the
potential of artificial intelligence, Nvidia
saw one of the sharpest falls declines this
month.
The chipmaker reportedly received a government
subpoena as part of an antitrust investigation
wiped over 9% off its market value, a loss
estimated at $279 billion.
ASIA SLUMPS
With global microchip supply chains strongly
connected to Asia, the Nvidia sell-off also
ripple through the region’s technology stocks,
with core players including Samsung, Tokyo
Electro and Taiwan Semiconductor suffering
sharp losses by Tuesday’s close.
Economic data for China released late last week
showed the first decline in export orders in
eight months, while the manufacturing sector I
the country remained in contraction for the
fourth consecutive month in August, and house
prices seeing the slowest pace of growth in
2024 so far.
Industrial indicators for Europe, where
manufacturing has been on recessionary footing
for over two years, new order volumes are
continuing to decline, potentially signalling a
period in autumn where manufacturing demand is
shrinking in US, China and the eurozone.
OIL SUPPLY
LENGTHENSCrude oil prices also
slumped, falling to the lowest level in
to the lowest levels of the year, on the
back of expectations that the OPEC+ coalition
will begin to unwind their 2.2 million bbl/day
production cuts next month.
Expectations that Libya will begin to restart
crude production and exports after a political
agreement was reached.
These two factors point to a substantial
increase in supply despite ongoing sluggish
demand, driving Brent and WTI futures down to
$74.19/bbl and $70.79/bbl respectively in
midday trading on 4 September.
The US Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices
closed down 1.51%, 2.12% and 3.26% respectively
on Tuesday evening, while Japan’s Nikkei 224
and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng bourses concluded
trading down 4.24% and 1.10% on Wednesday.
In Europe, Germany’s DAX index was down 0.84%
in midday Wednesday trading, while France’s CAC
40 and the STOXX Europe 50 index had lost 0.97%
and 1.19% respectively.
Aggregate chemicals sector losses were more
modest, with the STOXX 600 index for the sector
down 0.15% as of 13:29 BST.
EMS-Chemie and Umicore had suffered the
sharpest declines as of that time, dropping
1.49% and 1.31%. Linde and Yara shares both
dropped 0.97% compared to Tuesday’s close,
while Brenntag, Bayer and OCI saw falls of over
0.50%.
Focus article by Tom Brown.
Thumbnail photo: Traders in Seoul, South
Korea, on 4 September, The South Korea
Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) closed down
3.15% on the day. Source: Jeon
Heon-Kyun/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
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