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Ammonia14-Feb-2025
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Even with potential tariffs
coming in two weeks and winter looking like it
wants to linger, possibly through much of
February in some states, the US fertilizer
industry is quite positive over the near-term
direction of domestic products, especially
urea.
Many participants gathered this week at the
first major US fertilizer conference where the
strong tone that has been developing to start
the year was on full display.
The current outlook comes from the lift in near
term prices and firm sentiment towards there
being good consumption of the volumes already
positioned as field work begins in more areas
over the rest of this month.
There is also an upbeat view towards there
being solid demand patterns throughout the
season if inventory tightness does not impede
that flow, with it widely expected that the
current conditions and the arrival of the peak
spring season will promote further value
escalation in the short-term.
Further boosting the overall optimism is this
season’s corn plantings with estimates
remaining elevated and now ranging between 93
million to 96 million acres potentially.
The realization of the higher end of that
projection is likely dependent on corn prices
being supportive over the next several weeks
and there being an early start of field work in
key states.
It was expressed that the current low inventory
of products, especially in nitrogen could
become a limiting factor with a source saying,
“we don’t have enough urea for 95 million to 96
million acres”.
That these extra sowings would cause a lift in
total fertilizer consumption is not for
certain.
Some of the increased acreage could be on land
considered marginal for growing high yielding
corn and farmers could chose to do less than
they would on prime land or chose a cheaper
option.
Or even count on enough nutrient carryover from
the last crop.
When it came to weighing the impacts that
fertilizer and agricultural interests within
both Canada and the US might face with tariffs
there was significant discussions over whether
these measures would be imposed or would they
not come forth at all.
If so, would it be implemented at the full rate
of 25% or be placed at a different level higher
or lower, with participants almost evenly split
between their viewpoints.
Those operating in Canada or with interest in
product within the country are definitely more
vested in these outcomes than others in the
industry and their concerns were sharper.
As one source said a large spike in values
would be the most immediate hit to the markets
and more than anything there is “a lot of
uncertainty and it’s changed the way we are
selling there”.
Some participants are also seeing US retailers
becoming more cautious about their further
commitments even though supply is tight for
nitrogen products.
In many areas winter weather is keeping
activities quite reduced and could keep the
northern areas frozen a bit longer, there was
still some optimism that some areas could get
underway as March begins.
If that materializes that would be deemed an
early start in some locations, with there being
the mindset that the sooner farmers start the
more time for fertilizers to be consumed.
For now, field work is only underway in the
southern states in places that have been warmer
and dry but that is only a small portion of
what is ahead for spring applications.
It was discussed that there are some wheat
inputs that have begun, and it is expected that
over the coming weeks even more efforts will
start where there is good soil moisture for not
only ammonia but also urea and UAN
applications.
Recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate14-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–Senior Editor for Recycling Matt
Tudball discusses the latest developments in
the European recycled polyethylene
terephthalate (R-PET) market, including:
Higher prices heard for colourless, 80/20
bales in Germany
Some UK flake sellers raising offers due to
better orders
Market looking ahead to March already
Ethanol14-Feb-2025
SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Although the new US
administration has so far only imposed tariffs
on China, President Donald Trump keeps using
the tariff threat as a form of negotiation and
in the latter part of this week it was the turn
of Brazil’s ethanol.
Earlier in the week, Brazilian officials had
already been in damage limitation mode after
the US said it would impose higher tariffs on
steel on 12 March.
Brazil’s still strong steel sector is now
hoping the two countries will agree, just like
they did in 2018 during Trump’s first term, a
quota so Brazil can have an outlet for its
excess steel.
ETHANOL IN THE
SPOTLIGHTThe Brazilian
government has so far kept a low profile in the
issues presented to it by the new US
Administration; first, it was deportation
flights and the rather discrete row caused by
the fact that Brazilians returning home did so
handcuffed in the aircraft.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva,
however, was wary of how his Colombian
counterpart, Gustavo Petro, reacted to the
first deportation flights – taking to social
media to say Colombia’s sovereignty could never
be curtailed, after he ordered two flights to
return to the US.
Trump’s furious reaction on a
Sunday afternoon in his first week in the White
House sent the signal to allies – Colombia is a
firm ally of the US in the region – and enemies
alike about the new winds blowing in
Washington.
As already said, Brazil’s cabinet also kept a
rather low profile about the tariffs on steel.
The week started with a report by Folha de
S. Paulo citing an unnamed cabinet
official saying Brazil could retaliate by
raising taxes on the US technological majors
operating in the country.
The Finance Minister Fernando Haddad was quick
to deny such a possibility a few hours later,
and what could have become a big row died down.
But then came a White House announcement on
reciprocal tariffs later in the week, and the
US intention to analyze country by country all
tariffs and end “unfair trade practices.”
The US mentioned specifically Brazilian ethanol
as a prime example of those unfair trade
practices, something the US trade group for the
sector, the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA),
was quick to grasp after years of lobbying.
“The US is one of the most
open economies in the world, yet our trading
partners keep their markets closed to our
exports. This lack of reciprocity is unfair and
contributes to our large and persistent annual
trade deficit,” said the White House.
“There are endless examples where our trading
partners do not give the US reciprocal
treatment. [For example] The US tariff on
ethanol is a mere 2.5%. Yet Brazil charges the
US ethanol exports a tariff of 18%.”
The White House went on to say the US posted a
trade deficit with Brazil of $148 million in
2024, which it attributed to the effect of the
country’s higher import tariff. Brazil’s
exports to the US totaled $200 million last
year, while US shipments stood at $48 million.
With Brazil featuring so prominently in one of
the White House’s dozens of weekly press
releases, it was difficult for the cabinet to
remain in the background, aware that ethanol is
an important employer and, in a way, Brazil’s
own success story.
In the 1970’s crude oil prices shock, the
country took the strategic decision to
encourage ethanol as a motor fuel, propping up
at the same time what was then a nascent
agribusiness which became one of the world’s
breadbaskets, owing to Brazil’s vast arable
land and abundant water and warm weather.
Ethanol, therefore, required a stronger
response, and the cabinet’s measured statement
decided to focus on sugar.
The minister for energy and mines – a
heavyweight in any Brazilian government – was
the one in charge to remind the US that if all
tariffs should be reciprocal, Brazil would very
much like to see the hefty tariffs on its sugar
lowered.
Alexandre Silveira argued that Brazil’s sugar
had to pay an 81.16% import tariff to enter the
US, without offering anything in return.
“To have a fair and reciprocal plan, as stated
by President Trump, it would be necessary, in
fact, to eliminate import tariffs for Brazilian
sugar,” he said, as quoted by CNN
Brazil.
“Trump’s decision is unreasonable, as there is
no counterpart in expanding Brazilian sugar
exports to the US. This type of stance weakens
multilateralism and will have negative
consequences for the US economy itself.”
As soon as Brazil’s ethanol featured on the
White House’s communication, the US trade group
RFA’s CEO issued a statement celebrating that
after a decade spending “precious time and
resources fighting back against an unfair and
unjustified tariff regime” imposed by Brazil on
US ethanol exports, the lobbying had finally
paid off.
“What’s more ironic is that these tariff
barriers have been erected against US ethanol
imports while our country has openly accepted –
and even encouraged and incentivized – ethanol
imports from Brazil,” said Geoff Cooper.
STEEL TARIFFSJust like
everyone else, the Brazilian cabinet is trying
to adapt to the fast pace of another Trump
presidency. For much of the first half of this
week, ministers in public and steel industry
players in private went from panic mode to
talks mode as the 12
March implementation date offers room for
that.
Brazil’s officials are hopeful a new quota can
be agreed with the US, after pressure from
manufacturing companies in the US persuaded
Trump during his first term to establish a
3.5-million tonne quota for steel semi-finished
products and slabs, and a 687,000 tonne quota
of rolled products.
In the current environment, the repetition of
that deal would a be a resounding success for
Brazil’s steel producers.
Brazil’s produces around 32 million tonnes of
steel annually, according to trade group the
Steel Brazil Institute, but the country’s
demand stands at 24 million. This means the
sector must find markets overseas, and for the
past few years nearly half of that has been
going to the US as per the quota agreed.
The large US trade deficit in steel is shown by
the 20-25 million tonnes/year imported. In the
nine months to September 2024, the US had
imported 20.2 million tonnes, according to the
US International Trade Administration.
Brazil, with 16.7% market share in those
imports entering the US, is the second largest
supplier only behind Canada (22.5%), followed
by Mexico (11.4%), South Korea (10.1%), Vietnam
(4.6%), and Japan (4.0%), according to the
official data.
If the universal tariffs on steel are finally
implemented on 12 March, Brazil’s quota would
also come to an end. This is where Brazilian
officials will put much of its efforts in the
next four weeks, an attempt which may well end
up being successful if US manufacturers are
listened to.
Earlier this week, an economist at ICIS warned
that higher steel tariffs would likely increase prices in US
manufacturing and could potentially reduce
levels of capital expenditure (capex) in new
plants. The US is heavily reliant in steel
imports to cover its demand.
“A tariff raises the price in the market as
domestic steel producers raise the price for
steel to match the tariff… Higher price
lowers quantity demanded (law of demand) but
does increase quantity supplied by domestic
producers. Tariffs allow inefficient domestic
products to produce when then they could not
have done so without the tariff,” said Kevin
Swift.
“Steel tariffs will raise the cost of building
a chemical plant, for ongoing maintenance, etc.
These will especially hurt when government
policy is to foster re-shoring and FDI [foreign
direct investment] in the US.”
US manufacturers likely to be lobbying for
exceptions to the steel tariffs are set to be
Brazil’s best ally in the next four weeks,
considering Trump’s chauvinistic approach to
most things.
Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) re-election in the
presidential election due in 2026 hangs in the
balance. While manufacturing had a bumper 2024,
more formal and better-paid jobs in industry
have been hard to come so far.
The PT’s main constituency is industrial
workers, and a blow to the steel sector now
would come to represent actual jobs being lost
but also, given steel’s unique role in
supposedly representing a strong and
self-sufficient industrial fabric, a blow to
the credibility of the government.
The government came into office in 2023
promising to create more jobs by reviving
manufacturing. Just like so many other cabinets
had done before it in the past 50 years.
Frong page picture
source: World Steel
Association (Worldsteel)
Insight by Jonathan Lopez
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Speciality Chemicals14-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–The eurozone economy expanded
0.1% in the closing three months of 2024,
statistics body Eurostat said on Friday, an
uptick from earlier estimates
indicating the region ground to a halt during
the period.
Modest revised fourth-quarter growth comes
despite a 0.2% contraction in German growth, a
0.1% fall in France and zero growth in Italy.
Growth was stronger in the Netherlands, which
saw a 0.4% increase in GDP during the period,
and the Polish economy, which expanded 1.3%.
The EU economy grew 0.2% in the fourth quarter
of 2024.
2024
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Eurozone
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.1
EU
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
Crude Oil13-Feb-2025
LONDON (ICIS)–The UK economy showed little
growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 with GDP
rising just 0.1% after trending down throughout
the year.
Services sector output grew by 0.2% in Q4,
construction was up 0.5% while production fell
by 0.8%, the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) said on Thursday.
Economic growth tailed off through 2024 with
GDP growing 0.8% in Q1, 0.4% in Q2 and 0.0% in
Q3.
The Bank of England cut
interest rates again last week as it tries
to balance low growth against relatively high
inflation.
The eurozone’s economy also struggled in Q4 with
GDP flat at 0.0% growth from the previous
quarter.
Petrochemicals13-Feb-2025
MUMBAI (ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff
cuts on various products, including electronics
and automobiles – major downstream sectors of
petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald
Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a
big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports.
India PM Modi in US for state visit on
12-13 February
Tariff cuts incorporated in India budget
for year to March 2026
India braces for impact from US’ 25%
tariffs on all steel, aluminium imports
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to
meet with Trump in Washington on Thursday –
their first meeting since Trump assumed office
for a second term.
The US has not imposed any direct tariffs on
India yet. However, the world’s biggest economy
is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on
any countries with tariffs on US goods.
India’s tariffs on agricultural, mining and
manufacturing products from the US were in
double-digits, while US tariffs for the same
products from India were in the low
single-digit levels.
The south Asian country, which is a giant
emerging market in Asia, is expected to offer
tariff cuts on more than 30 goods, as well as
increase the purchase of US defence and energy
products, according to analysts at Japanese
brokerage firm Nomura, in a research note on 10
February.
India’s national budget for the next fiscal
year starting April 2025 contained provisions
reducing import duties on some goods including
electronics, textiles, intermediate goods used
for technology manufacturing and satellites,
synthetic flavouring essences and motorcycles,
which are expected to benefit US-based
companies.
It was largely seen as a pre-emptive move to
thwart reciprocal tariffs from the US under
Trump.
India may consider further tariff reductions on
luxury vehicles, solar cells, and chemicals, as
part of its strategy to maintain smooth trade
relations, according to analysts from Nomura.
“We are analysing the announcements made by the
US on increasing tariffs,” an official from
India’s Ministry of Commerce said.
“We are also asking our industry how these
tariffs are going to affect them positively or
negatively and are looking at the impact of the
tariffs that have already been imposed,” he
said.
DIALING DOWN ON PROTECTIONIST
STANCE
India has much higher tariff rates compared
with other countries in Asia. Amid threats of
reciprocal tariffs from the US, India is being
forced to backtrack on its protectionist
policy, at least where the US is concerned,
while maintaining a tough stance on rival Asian
giant China.
In year to March 2024, the US was India’s
largest export destination and accounted for
nearly 18% of the country’s total merchandise
exports of $437.10 billion, official data
showed.
Key Indian exports to the US include industrial
machinery, gems and jewellery, pharmaceuticals,
fuels, iron and steel, textiles, vehicles, and
chemicals.
US’ exports to India, meanwhile, accounted for
just 2% of total US shipments abroad in
January-December 2024.
A mutually beneficial tariff regime could be
struck between then as India seeks to further
boost exports to the world’s biggest economy.
The US’ recent tariff hikes on China opens up
opportunities for Indian exporters to increase
their share in the US market.
For instance, India’s exports of auto
components to the US are currently very low,
accounting for only 2% of the US market,
underscoring scope for expansion.
Between April and September 2024, the country’s
total exports of auto parts stood at $11.1
billion, a third of which – or $3.67 billion –
were shipped to the US, according to the
Automotive Component Manufacturers Association
of India (ACMA).
Over the past few years, India has adopted
trade measures like import certification under
the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), increased
antidumping duties on various products,
including petrochemicals, to limit imports and
boost domestic production.
While some of these policies apply globally,
some of them are directed at China, which is a
major exporter of goods to India.
While the tariffs are worrisome, certain
sectors like auto components, mobiles and
electronics, electronic machinery, apparel,
leather and footwear, furniture, pharmaceutical
and toys could see an increase in demand from
US buyers, the commerce ministry official said.
India is a major exporter of pharmaceutical
products to the US but relies on China for 70%
of raw material called active pharmaceutical
ingredients (API).
The US accounted for over 31% of India’s total
pharmaceutical exports of $27.9 billion in year
to March 2024.
IMPORTS OF US LNG TO GROW; US’ TARIFFS
ON STEEL, ALUMINIUM WORRY INDIA
The south Asian country is expected to increase
its petroleum product imports from the US, to
alleviate trade imbalances.
For the fiscal year 2023-24, India imported
$12.96 billion worth of petroleum oil and
products from the US, according to official
data.
India’s state-owned oil and gas companies,
including Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Gas
Authority of India Ltd (GAIL) and Bharat
Petroleum Corp Ltd (BPCL), are in active
discussions with American suppliers to import
more LNG from the US, petroleum secretary
Pankaj Jain said on 10 February.
The recent announcement of 25% tariffs on all
steel and aluminium imports into the US could
heavily impact India.
While Indian steel exports to the US are
relatively small, the US tariffs could cause
exporting nations to redirect their goods to
the Indian markets.
India is both a major exporter as well as
importer of steel, on which a basic customs
duty of around 7-8% apply – much lower than the
US’ 25% – raising fears of supply flooding the
south Asian country.
With the US shutting its doors to global steel,
the surplus will inevitably be redirected to
India, threatening our domestic industry with
market distortions, price crashes, and unfair
competition, Indian Steel Association (ISA)
Naveen Jindal said said in an official
statement on 11 February.
“The US, a major steel importer, has
historically imposed strict trade restrictions,
with over 30 remedial actions in force against
Indian steel – some for more than three
decades,” Jindal said.
“This latest tariff is expected to slash steel
exports to the US by 85%, creating a massive
surplus that will likely flood India,” he
added.
While only 5% of the total steel exports from
India go to the US, the country accounts for
nearly 12% of India’s aluminium exports.
Both steel and aluminium industries use
chemicals like caustic soda and soda ash during
the production process.
Insight article by Priya
Jestin
With contributions from Nurluqman Suratman
and Pearl Bantillo
Polypropylene13-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Anti-Dumping Committee of
Indonesia (KADI) has recommended anti-dumping
duties (ADDs) ranging from 7.17% to 29.01% on
polypropylene (PP) block copolymer imports,
according to a document obtained by ICIS on
Thursday.
The final ADD recommendations on the material
with HS code 3902.30.90 are still subject to
approval by relevant authorities, with no
timeline for implementation, as yet.
Market participants expect a final decision to
be announced in the next one to two months.
The final ADDs suggested for imports from South
Korea range from 7.17% to 19.58%, down from
previously proposed rates of up to 82.83%,
according to the document.
For imports from Vietnam, the UAE, Malaysia and
Singapore, the recommended rates are 11.40%,
21.02%, 13.45-29.01%, and 11.60-13.06%,
respectively.
KADI initiated the antidumping
investigation on PP block copolymer resins
imports in 2023, following a request from
Indonesian PP producer Chandra Asri.
PP block copolymer is widely used in packaging,
automotive parts, electronic devices and other
goods that require enhanced toughness and
flexibility.
(Adds details throughout)
Infogram by Nurluqman Suratman
Thumbnail image: At the Tanjung Priok port
in Jakarta, Indonesia on 19 June 2024. (BAGUS
INDAHONO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
Polypropylene13-Feb-2025
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Anti-Dumping Committee of
Indonesia (KADI) has recommended anti-dumping
duties (ADD) ranging from 7.17% to 29.01% on
polypropylene (PP) block copolymer imports,
according to a document obtained by ICIS on
Thursday.
The proposed ADDs on the material with HS code
3902.30.90 are still subject to approval by
relevant authorities, with no timeline for
implementation, as yet.
Market participants expect a final decision to
be announced in the next one to two months.
Gas12-Feb-2025
Additional reporting by Ed Cox
LONDON (ICIS)–The 2022 energy crisis has left
the EU between a rock and a hard place.
Record gas prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine
war combined with costly climate policies to
deal a heavy blow to industrial production,
triggering widespread plant closures and an
economic downturn.
The ensuing need to respond to industrial
decline while also stemming social and
political turmoil caused by soaring energy
costs prompted lawmakers to adopt a
controversial wholesale gas price cap, which
expired at the end of January.
Although prices have fallen since the record
levels seen in 2022 they remain stubbornly high
by historical standards and have recorded a
sustained increase so far in 2025. This has
further heightened calls from large consumers
to push for urgent measures to curb energy
costs, fearing the imminent collapse of
industrial production.
And the concerns are legitimate. Europe faces
geopolitical volatility and growing competition
from China and the US.
However, reports that the EU may now consider
introducing a new gas price cap to stave off
industrial decline should come under public
scrutiny because of serious risks.
A first risk relates to the fact that a price
cap would impair the market’s ability to
attract more supply if needed.
Such a risk would be both short- and long-term
as European buyers have secured only a fraction
of the LNG volumes already contracted by Asian
companies.
In January 2025, LNG covered almost 37% of EU
and British gas supply, according to ICIS data.
However, putting a figure on the percentage of
Europe’s contracted LNG relative to future
demand is challenging. This is in part due to
great uncertainty over Europe’s gas demand
alongside the complexities of LNG contracts.
But the underlying message that Europe only
contracts a portion of its LNG demand – and is
heavily dependent on market prices to attract
remaining supply – is correct.
The need for a robust, market-based TTF
reference price in reflecting Europe’s LNG
demand relative to other markets will only
increase in line with a dependency on US LNG
imports, and in the event that Russian pipeline
gas does not return.
Beyond 2023, the majority of LNG contracts with
European companies are for supply from the US
on a free-on-board basis, meaning there is no
contractual commitment to deliver to Europe.
Price signals from buyers in Europe, Asia,
South America and the Middle East play a key
role in determining the destination of these
cargoes. Europe has only received sufficient
LNG in recent months to cover gas demand
because the TTF has pulled supplies inwards,
and away from other global buyers.
Large future LNG contracts are also in place
with Qatar, but they typically contain
diversion rights. It has not been the policy of
the EU, nor of European LNG buyers, to commit
to large, fixed-destination contracts given the
expected long-term drop in Europe’s gas demand.
In any case, few sellers would commit to such
business with the prospect of a price cap and
with other global buyers potentially more
attractive.
And there are other risks related to financial
stability and the credibility of EU markets as
they would no longer accurately reflect the
bloc’s supply-demand balance.
An artificially capped price could lead to
higher margin requirements but would also put a
strain on the EU’s overall budget, leading to
soaring debt. This is because of the gap
between regulated and free market prices, which
would ultimately have to be borne by EU
taxpayers.
The EU might consider other options such as
reducing regulations and red tape, or ensuring
companies have all the flexibility they need to
attract more supplies.
Although the EU has a fine line to tread –
preserving the bloc’s competitiveness while
ensuring security of gas supply – introducing a
gas price cap would have a deeply harmful
impact on markets.
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