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S Korea’s S-Oil Shaheen project 55% complete; to start commercial ops in H2 ’26
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–S-Oil’s Shaheen crude-to-chemical project in Ulsan, South Korea is now 55% complete and is expected to start commercial operations in the second half 2026, the producer said on Monday. Construction of the $7bn project at the Onsan Industrial Complex of Ulsan City started in March 2023, with mechanical completion targeted by the first half of 2026. South Korean refiner S-Oil is 63%-owned by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest crude exporter. The Shaheen project – named after the Arabic word for “falcon” – will have a 1.8 million tonne/year mixed-feed cracking facility; an 880,000 tonne/year linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) unit; and a 440,000 tonne/year high density PE (HDPE) plant. The site will have a thermal crude-to-chemical (TC2C) facility, which will convert crude directly into petrochemical feedstocks such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and naphtha, and the cracker is expected to recycle waste heat for power generation in the refinery. The company currently produces a range of petrochemicals and fuels including benzene, mixed xylenes, ethylene, methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), paraxylene, polypropylene, propylene, propylene oxide, biodiesel, and potentially bio-based aviation and other bio-derived products at its Onsan site. S-Oil plans to supply feedstock to domestic petrochemical downstream companies mainly through pipelines. “To this end, the construction of logistics-related infrastructure, such as a new pipeline network, is being carried out at the same time,” it said. Long-term agreements for stable supply of raw materials are being signed between S-Oil and petrochemical companies located at the two industrial complexes in Ulsan, which would boost competitiveness of domestic value chain, the company said.
Europe top stories: weekly summary
LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 14 February. Europe MX and PX chemical value chain braces for headwinds amid downstream closures and tariff threats Downstream demand for mixed xylenes (MX) and paraxylene (PX) in Europe has been limited at the start of 2025, with permanent shutdowns and the threat of tariffs among the hurdles to a meaningful recovery. Germany’s battered chemical industry holds its breath ahead of general election Germany is set to head to the polls on 23 February amid one of the most challenging economic scenarios the country has faced in post-war times. EU gas price cap proposals would drive shipments to other regions – ICIS expert Proposals under consideration in the European Commission to temporarily cap natural gas pricing would likely result in the diversion of supplies away from Europe and tighten supply in the region, an ICIS analyst said on Wednesday. EU promises plan to save chemicals as Clean Industrial Deal approaches The European Commission has promised to address the plight of the region’s energy-intensive petrochemical sector later this year as it gears up for the publication of the Clean Industrial Deal on 26 February. IPEX: Asia finding a floor, up 1%; PVC and PP drive 1.3% index fall in Europe; USG toluene firms The ICIS Petrochemical Index (IPEX) for January shows that northeast Asian chemical markets may be finding a floor after two consecutive months of declines, with the regional index up 1% – only its second gain in six months, driven by a 14.7% surge in butadiene due to rising crude oil costs.
UPDATE: US to start antidumping probe on Chinese MDI on 5 March
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US International Trade Commission (ITC) will start on 5 March a preliminary antidumping probe on imports of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from China, acting on a petition from BASF and Dow Chemical. The MDI Fair Trade Coalition – consisting of BASF Corp (Florham Park, New Jersey); and Dow Chemical (Midland, Michigan) – filed the petition on 12 February, citing dumping margins of 305.81% to 507.13% for the Chinese material, according to ITC’s statement. ITC will make a preliminary determination on possible dumping by end-March 2025. The petition named producers BASF Polyurethane (Chongqing), Covestro Polymers (China), Shanghai Lianheng Isocyanate, Wanhua Chemical Group, and Wanhua Chemical Ningbo as allegedly dumping MDI into the US. China’s Wanhua Chemical is the world’s largest MDI producer. In 2024, the US imported around 229,000 tonnes of MDI from China, which accounted for 57% of total US MDI imports. The US in turn exported minimal amounts of MDI to China. Chinese MDI is currently subject to 35% tariffs in the US, after the additional 10% levy implemented on 4 February 2025. In his first term as US president, Donald Trump had imposed a 25% tariff on a host of Chinese goods, including MDI in May 2019. China, on the other hand, has a 31.5% tariff on imports of US MDI – a 25% tariff on top of the baseline 6.5% duty. (Adds paragraphs 4-9) Thumbnail image: Heavy Fog Hit Shanghai Port, China – 16 February 2025 (Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock)

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US to start antidumping probe on China MDI imports on 5 March
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US International Trade Commission (ITC) will start on 5 March a preliminary antidumping probe on imports of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) from China, acting on a petition from BASF and Dow Chemical. The MDI Fair Trade Coalition – which consists of BASF Corp (Florham Park, New Jersey); and Dow Chemical (Midland, Michigan) – filed the petition on 12 February, citing dumping margins of 305.81% to 507.13% for the Chinese material, according to ITC’s statement. ITC will make a preliminary determination on possible dumping by end-March 2025.
ICIS EXPLAINS: German election’s impact on energy
LONDON (ICIS)– Germany will head to the polls on 23 February for a snap federal election as Olaf Scholz, the incumbent chancellor, lost the vote of confidence last December, a month after his coalition government collapsed in November 2024. The following analysis will reflect core pledges from the manifestos of the German parties and review those in detail using ICIS data and insights. This analysis of German political pledges and announcements will be continuously updated by the ICIS energy editorial team. Lead authors include German power reporter Johnathan Hamilton-Eve, German gas reporters Ghassan Zumot and Eduardo Escajadillo. Data aggregated from multiple surveys collated by Politico, showed that on 12 February, the CDU/CSU led the polls with 29% of the vote. While the CDU/CDU remains ahead, the party has lost three percentage points since 13 November, when Scholz first announced a vote of confidence would take place on 16 December. Meanwhile, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Linke party have seen the largest gains in voter support, with each increasing by three percentage points in the polls. NORD STREAM AfD co-leader, Alice Weidel, said in a party congress on 11 January that her party is willing to resume Russian gas supplies via Nord Stream. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) has proposed reviving Nord Stream as part of its strategy to affordable and secure gas supplies. However, this is unlikely to materialise as BSW is not among the top three parties while the AfD is explicitly excluded from the ruling coalition. As a result, such energy policies would be very unlikely to pass in parliament. Other parties are explicitly against the idea of returning to Russian piped supplies. Technical capacity of Nord Stream 1 and 2 is 55 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year for each of the twin pipelines. REVIVAL OF NUCLEAR POWER Germany’s controversial decision to shut down its last three nuclear power plants in April 2023, is also an important topic discussed by the main parties who claim that this source of generation would ensure security of supply in the power sector. The AfD is the most vocal party to advocate for the return of nuclear energy as part of its agenda, the CDU/CSU dissimilarly said it would examine the possibility of recommissioning nuclear power plants as part of energy diversification. Excluding the FDP which support nuclear power development, the SPDs have no clear stance on the issue. The Greens/Alliance 90, Linke and BSW are the only parties that explicitly oppose a return to nuclear power generation, although BSW does support intensifying research in the field of nuclear fusion. Despite mixed views on nuclear, market participants and former nuclear operators  remain sceptical on the issue, citing high costs, extensive staff training, regulatory challenges and the advanced dismantling of decommissioned nuclear plants as key barriers, making a revival unfeasible. GAS POWER PLANT STRATEGY? After a year of delays to the power plant safety act, Germany’s coalition collapse led to the current minority government failing to pass the act in December 2024. While the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate action (BMWK) previously told ICIS that implementing the act was “no longer possible” due to CDU/CSU opposition, traders active within the German power market noted that a revised bill with a renewed focus would likely follow the elections to help address missing power plant capacity. “A law to increase the capacity of dispatchable power plants is highly necessary and we will see some version of it in 2025,” said one trader. The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, said in January that it would build 50 new gas-fired power plants quickly if elected. According to ICIS Analytics, that would make around a 25GW capacity addition to Germany’s current 36GW gas-fired fleet. This move aims to bring back confidence for investors and supply security for power consumers amid multiple periods of limited renewable generations this winter so far. On the other hand, the Greens want to move away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy as fast as possible. They strongly oppose new gas-fired power plants, unless hydrogen-ready, and aim to achieve 100% renewable electricity within the next ten years. Additionally, they plan to stop using fossil gas by 2045 and reject new long-term gas import deals, focusing on local sustainable energy. The Social Democrats, led by the incumbent chancellor Olaf Scholz, advocate for a more balanced approach. They aim to reduce CO2 emissions and are open to carbon capture and storage projects. Scholz recently welcomed the commissioning of new US LNG projects in a bid to diversify energy sources and expressed commitments to phasing out traditional energy sources gradually to maintain energy security and industrial strength. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) supports a market-driven policy. They want to reduce regulations to improve efficiency and modernization, creating a simple capacity market to incentivize building gas-fired power plants. The FDP also supports increasing domestic natural gas extraction, including the use of fracking, and boosting storage capacities to reduce reliance on international supplies. In stark contrast, AfD takes a very different approach. They support building new coal- and lignite-fired power plants and aim to revive the Nord Stream pipelines to secure cheap gas imports. RENEWABLE ENERGY The expansion of renewable energy remains a key topic in Germany, however, its focus has somewhat declined as debates over migration and how to revive the country’s struggling economy take centre stage. Despite this shift, most parties continue to agree on the need to expand renewables. The Greens, SPD and Linke are the most ambitious in terms of promoting renewable energy. The Greens have pledged to uphold the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) target of an 80% renewable energy mix by 2030 and a carbon-neutral power grid by 2035. Similarly, Linke supports a 100% renewable energy mix, but with an extended timeline to 2050. To accelerate renewable expansion, Linke proposes municipalities receive a €25,000 bonus per MW for new wind turbines and large-scale PV systems built, along with a higher mandatory payment from wind and solar operators to municipalities. All parties advocate for lower grid fees, while the Greens, SPD, and CDU/CSU also advocate for a reduction in electricity taxes to cut prices and incentivise renewable growth. The BSW has indicated it would implement a repowering program to replace old wind turbines with new ones to increase electricity yield, while encouraging the installation of PV systems on public buildings and parking lots. In contrast, the FDP and AfD take an openly hostile stance towards renewables. Both parties have pledged to ban renewable subsidies, while the AfD has vowed to go a step further and demolish all wind turbines, with Weidel describing them as “windmills of shame”.
Singapore Jan petrochemical exports dip 0.2%; NODX falls 2.1%
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports in January declined by 0.2% year on year to Singapore dollar (S$) 1.10 billion ($821 million), while overall non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by 2.1% over the same period, official data showed on Monday. The southeast Asian country’s January NODX reversed the 9.0% increase posted in the previous month, trade promotion agency Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) said. For the whole of 2025, EnterpriseSG forecasts a modest growth of 1.0-3.0% for the overall NODX amid trade and economic headwinds. In January, Singapore’s electronics exports grew by 9.6% year on year, while non- electronics NODX fell by 4.8% over the same period as pharmaceuticals shipments slumped by 53.0%. Exports to Hong Kong, the US and Taiwan posted growths in January 2025, while shipments to China, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the EU 27 declined. Singapore is a leading petrochemical manufacturer and exporter in southeast Asia, with more than 100 international chemical companies, including ExxonMobil and Shell, based at its Jurong Island hub. For the whole of 2024, Singapore’s petrochemical exports grew by 4.6%, with overall NODX inching up by 0.2%. ($1 = S$1.34)
BLOG: China LLDPE net imports in 2025-2035: Three scenarios that could reshape global trade
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Let me start with a confession: I have no idea which of the three scenarios in today’s blog post will come true. That’s the only honest answer in today’s much more complex markets. What I do know is that China’s role as the world’s biggest net importer of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) is shifting, and the outcome will transform global trade, supply chains, and pricing power. Here are the scenarios: ICIS Base Case: 72% average operating rate → Net imports at 4.5 million tonnes per year (down from 5.9 million tonnes per year in 2020-2024). Higher Operating Rates (81%) → Net imports fall to 2.3 million tonnes. Back to 2024 Operating Rate (90%) → Net imports shrink to just 0.3 million tonnes, with China being a net exporter in some years. What factors could push China towards higher or lower LLDPE imports? Geopolitics & Supply Security: Beijing may prioritize self-sufficiency, directing plants to run at high rates – even at a loss – to reduce reliance on imports. After last year’s strong export growth, trade tensions don’t block further export growth in manufactured goods. LLDPE demand is boosted, with more of it met locally. China’s Cost-Competitive Production: New world-scale, highly integrated plants in China are far to the right of global cost curves. Shifting to Higher-Value Grades: China triples the number of polymer grades it produces, shifting toward C6 and C8 grades, further reducing reliance on imports. Another Variable: Capacity Growth & Carbon Constraints 2025-2028 will see the biggest wave of LLDPE capacity additions. Most of these plants are already built, under construction, or approved. China’s 2028 refinery cap (due to EV [electric vehicle] growth) may limit domestic feedstock supply. Will China import feedstocks or scale back chemicals capacity growth? China needs a minimum 28% greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction by 2035 to stay on track for net zero by 2060 (Carbon Brief). Could climate policies slow chemicals expansion? Some of China’s steam crackers are now 20+ years old. Will they be revamped, or will we see a wave of shutdowns? As Complexity Grows, AI is Transforming Forecasting Manual calculations that took hours now take minutes. Data crunching is faster, cheaper, and more accurate. Large language models (LLMs) can generate reports instantly, without errors. Even the creative thinking or wisdom-of-crowds approach that produced today’s post could soon be done by AI. But will the machines be trusted? I again don’t know. What is clear is that AI offers the potential to model today’s muddled and very challenging markets. We are lucky that the technology has come along at the right time. Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.
Asia top stories – weekly summary
SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 14 February. SE Asia PE plant shutdowns deemed necessary for rebalancing By Izham Ahmad 10-Feb-25 10:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A recent wave of plant shutdowns among polyethylene (PE) producers across southeast Asia has been seen by some as a reflection of how dire the situation in the market is. Malaysia’s Lotte Chemical Titan incurs record Q4 loss; ’25 outlook downbeat By Nurluqman Suratman 10-Feb-25 14:44 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Lotte Chemical Titan (LCT) incurred its largest-ever quarterly loss, with analysts expecting the Malaysian producer to remain in the red in 2025 amid weak economic conditions and an oversupply of petrochemical products. INSIGHT: Strong hydrogen push in China to reshape global industry amid US pullback By Patricia Tao 10-Feb-25 18:23 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US has suspended financial support for its own hydrogen sector, while China is ramping up efforts to expand its hydrogen industry. The sharp policy divergence between the two countries could accelerate the global hydrogen market’s shift and reshape the industry landscape over the next three to five years. Asia polyester tracks rising costs despite weak post-holiday demand By Judith Wang 11-Feb-25 12:57 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Asia’s polyester export discussions edged up in line with the higher cost pressure after the Lunar New Year holiday, while buying activities were limited as end-user demand remained weak. SE Asia VAM market rallies on crimped supply, demand surge By Hwee Hwee Tan 12-Feb-25 12:43 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The southeast Asia vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) import market is being buoyed by resurgent restocking demand and supply disruptions into February. INSIGHT: US policy shift raises concerns on future of CCS, blue ammonia value chain By Bee Lin Chow 12-Feb-25 13:04 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The unfolding political battle in the US over national economic interest and energy security has raised concerns about potential implications for its emerging carbon capture and storage (CCS) and blue ammonia sectors, and the potential spillover impact on Asia. PODCAST: US hydrogen subsidy halt vs China’s expansion – what’s next for the global market? By Anita Yang 12-Feb-25 15:45 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The Trump administration swiftly withdrew financial support for its hydrogen sector, while China is accelerating hydrogen expansion with strong policy backing. INSIGHT: India may offer tariff concessions to US as PM Modi meets Trump By Priya Jestin 13-Feb-25 14:18 MUMBAI (ICIS)–India may offer the US tariff cuts on various products, including electronics and automobiles – major downstream sectors of petrochemicals – to avoid US President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal duties”, which may deal a big blow to the south Asian nation’s exports. Vietnam to raise 2025 GDP growth target to 8% to fuel socioeconomic growth By Jonathan Yee 13-Feb-25 16:08 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Vietnam announced on 12 February it would raise its GDP growth target for 2025 to 8.0% from 6.5-7.0%, with industrial manufacturing and foreign investment expected to drive growth. Singapore 2024 petrochemical exports grow 4.6%; trade risks stay high By Nurluqman Suratman 14-Feb-25 14:00 SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Singapore’s petrochemical exports in 2024 rose by 4.6%, supporting the overall growth in non-oil shipments abroad which is being threatened by ongoing trade frictions among major economies.
TFI ’25: Even with tariff threat and winter lingering, spring outlook from US fertilizer industry quite positive
HOUSTON (ICIS)–Even with potential tariffs coming in two weeks and winter looking like it wants to linger, possibly through much of February in some states, the US fertilizer industry is quite positive over the near-term direction of domestic products, especially urea. Many participants gathered this week at the first major US fertilizer conference where the strong tone that has been developing to start the year was on full display. The current outlook comes from the lift in near term prices and firm sentiment towards there being good consumption of the volumes already positioned as field work begins in more areas over the rest of this month. There is also an upbeat view towards there being solid demand patterns throughout the season if inventory tightness does not impede that flow, with it widely expected that the current conditions and the arrival of the peak spring season will promote further value escalation in the short-term. Further boosting the overall optimism is this season’s corn plantings with estimates remaining elevated and now ranging between 93 million to 96 million acres potentially. The realization of the higher end of that projection is likely dependent on corn prices being supportive over the next several weeks and there being an early start of field work in key states. It was expressed that the current low inventory of products, especially in nitrogen could become a limiting factor with a source saying, “we don’t have enough urea for 95 million to 96 million acres”. That these extra sowings would cause a lift in total fertilizer consumption is not for certain. Some of the increased acreage could be on land considered marginal for growing high yielding corn and farmers could chose to do less than they would on prime land or chose a cheaper option. Or even count on enough nutrient carryover from the last crop. When it came to weighing the impacts that fertilizer and agricultural interests within both Canada and the US might face with tariffs there was significant discussions over whether these measures would be imposed or would they not come forth at all. If so, would it be implemented at the full rate of 25% or be placed at a different level higher or lower, with participants almost evenly split between their viewpoints. Those operating in Canada or with interest in product within the country are definitely more vested in these outcomes than others in the industry and their concerns were sharper. As one source said a large spike in values would be the most immediate hit to the markets and more than anything there is “a lot of uncertainty and it’s changed the way we are selling there”. Some participants are also seeing US retailers becoming more cautious about their further commitments even though supply is tight for nitrogen products. In many areas winter weather is keeping activities quite reduced and could keep the northern areas frozen a bit longer, there was still some optimism that some areas could get underway as March begins. If that materializes that would be deemed an early start in some locations, with there being the mindset that the sooner farmers start the more time for fertilizers to be consumed. For now, field work is only underway in the southern states in places that have been warmer and dry but that is only a small portion of what is ahead for spring applications. It was discussed that there are some wheat inputs that have begun, and it is expected that over the coming weeks even more efforts will start where there is good soil moisture for not only ammonia but also urea and UAN applications.
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