Hurricane Milton on track to hit US fertilizer hub in Tampa

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Milton strengthened on Monday into a powerful Category 4 hurricane, and it is expected to continue strengthening before making landfall by midweek near Tampa, Florida, a major fertilizer hub that was drenched by an earlier major hurricane.

That earlier hurricane, Helene, made landfall on September 26 far to the north of Tampa. However, Tampa still saw storm surges of 6-10 feet (1.8-3.0 meters), according to AccuWeather, a meteorology firm. Tampa and other ports along Florida’s Gulf Coast had shut down because of Helene.

AccuWeather estimates that Hurricane Helene caused $225 billion to $250 billion of damage and economic loss in Florida and the southeastern US.

As of September 30, fertilizer companies were assessing the damage caused by Hurricane Helene. A week later, they will now prepare for another major hurricane that will pose a greater risk.

AccuWeather is warning that, due to Milton, the Tampa Bay region could be hit by a storm surge of 10-15 feet, wind gusts of 120-140 miles/hour (193-225 miles/hour) and more than 2 feet (60 cm) of rain.

“Milton may be a historic, once-in-a-lifetime storm for Floridians,” said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist. “Milton has the potential to become one of Florida’s most damaging and costly hurricanes.”

For Tampa, the magnitude of Milton’s storm surge will depend on its path, according to AccuWeather. If it makes landfall south of Tampa, it will cause dangerous, but not extreme, storm surges.

If landfall is north of Tampa, parts of the Bay could suffer from storm surges of 20 feet, AccuWeather said.

FERTILIZER HUB, PHOSPHATES AT RISK
Tampa is an important hub for the US fertilizer industry, hosting corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations.

Near Tampa is Florida’s phosphate mining operations in Bone Valley, which covers parts of Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee and Polk counties.

In all, Florida has 27 phosphate mines, of which nine are active, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

For chemicals, there is some epoxy resin, phenolic resin and unsaturated polyester resin production in Lakeland and Kathleen, Florida. Both are near Tampa.

Milton will make landfall far from Pensacola, Florida, which has plants that make nylon and thermoset resins.

PORT TAMPA BAY REMAINS OPEN
Port Tampa Bay remains open to inbound and outbound vessel traffic, but it has set Port Condition X-RAY. That means gale force winds that could disrupt maritime operations could occur in the next 48 hours.

SeaPort Manatee, a deepwater port on Tampa Bay, also set Port Condition X-Ray. It handled bulk, breakbulk and container traffic.

RAIL STILL RECOVERING FROM HELENE
On October 4, railroad company CSX warned customers to expect delays despite progress in restoring power and clearing trees. Disruptions to operations are concentrated in the Carolinas.

Railroad company Norfolk Southern said it has already started monitoring Hurricane Milton, although its lines are operating as scheduled.

POTENTIAL FOR DISRUPTION TO GULF OIL
Hurricane Helene disrupted US oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico even though it passed through the eastern portion of the body of water.

Hurricane Milton could have the same potential as it approaches the US.

RECONSTRUCTION DEMAND FOR CHEMS
For hurricanes in general, reconstruction can translate to increased demand for many chemicals and polymers.

The white pigment titanium dioxide (TiO2) is used in paints.

Solvents used in paints and coatings include butyl acetate (butac), butyl acrylate (butyl-A), ethyl acetate (etac), glycol ethers, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and isopropanol (IPA).

Blends of aliphatic and aromatic solvents are also used to make paints and coatings.

For polymers, expandable polystyrene (EPS) and polyurethane (PU) foam are used in insulation.

Polyurethanes are made of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), toluene diisocyanate (TDI) and polyols.

High density polyethylene (HDPE) is used in pipe. Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is used to make cladding, window frames, wires and cables, flooring and roofing membranes.

Unsaturated polyester resins (UPR) are used to make coatings and composites.

Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) is used to make paints and adhesives.

Thumbnail shows the forecasts path of Hurricane Milton. Image by the National Hurricane Center.