BLOG: China LLDPE net imports in 2025-2035: Three scenarios that could reshape global trade

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson: Let me start with a confession: I have no idea which of the three scenarios in today’s blog post will come true.

That’s the only honest answer in today’s much more complex markets.

What I do know is that China’s role as the world’s biggest net importer of linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) is shifting, and the outcome will transform global trade, supply chains, and pricing power.

Here are the scenarios:

• ICIS Base Case: 72% average operating rate → Net imports at 4.5 million tonnes per year (down from 5.9 million tonnes per year in 2020-2024).
• Higher Operating Rates (81%) → Net imports fall to 2.3 million tonnes.
• Back to 2024 Operating Rate (90%) → Net imports shrink to just 0.3 million tonnes, with China being a net exporter in some years.

What factors could push China towards higher or lower LLDPE imports?

Geopolitics & Supply Security: Beijing may prioritize self-sufficiency, directing plants to run at high rates – even at a loss – to reduce reliance on imports.

After last year’s strong export growth, trade tensions don’t block further export growth in manufactured goods. LLDPE demand is boosted, with more of it met locally.

China’s Cost-Competitive Production: New world-scale, highly integrated plants in China are far to the right of global cost curves.

Shifting to Higher-Value Grades: China triples the number of polymer grades it produces, shifting toward C6 and C8 grades, further reducing reliance on imports.

Another Variable: Capacity Growth & Carbon Constraints

2025-2028 will see the biggest wave of LLDPE capacity additions. Most of these plants are already built, under construction, or approved.

China’s 2028 refinery cap (due to EV [electric vehicle] growth) may limit domestic feedstock supply. Will China import feedstocks or scale back chemicals capacity growth?

China needs a minimum 28% greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction by 2035 to stay on track for net zero by 2060 (Carbon Brief). Could climate policies slow chemicals expansion?

Some of China’s steam crackers are now 20+ years old. Will they be revamped, or will we see a wave of shutdowns?

As Complexity Grows, AI is Transforming Forecasting

• Manual calculations that took hours now take minutes.
• Data crunching is faster, cheaper, and more accurate.
• Large language models (LLMs) can generate reports instantly, without errors.

Even the creative thinking or wisdom-of-crowds approach that produced today’s post could soon be done by AI.

But will the machines be trusted? I again don’t know.

What is clear is that AI offers the potential to model today’s muddled and very challenging markets. We are lucky that the technology has come along at the right time.

Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.