Brazil’s automotive output expected up 7% in 2025 amid higher sales, exports

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Brazil’s petrochemicals-intensive automotive output is expected to grow by 6.8% in 2025, compared with 2024, to nearly 2.75 million, the country’s trade group Anfavea said on Thursday.

The healthy increase will be supported by higher sales, both at home and abroad as the economies of key Brazilian trade partners such as Argentina improve in 2025.

The likely final figures for 2024 published by Anfavea on Thursday sharply improved over those published in July, when the trade group said increasing imports of foreign-made vehicles, mostly Chinese, was jeopardizing domestic producers’ market share.

At the time, it said 2024 output should end up being 4.9% higher than in 2023 at 2.44 million units.

On Thursday, however, it said output growth in 2024 is likely to be of 10.7%, compared with 2023, to 2.57 million units.

Brazil automotive	2024	2025 forecast	Change 2024 vs 2025 with current forecast
Output	2,574,000	2,749,000	6.8%
Sales	2,650,000	2,802,000	5.6%
Exports	402,600	428,000	6.2%

ABNORMAL 2024
“Normally, the second half [of the year] is slower but this year we had a fantastic second half, the best in the last 10 years, after a start to the year with some problems such strikes in government agencies and the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, among others,” said Anfavea’s director general, Marcio de Lima Leite.

“As a result, Brazil was the market that grew the most among the main global markets. We hope to start the year at this accelerated pace and make 2025 the last step before returning to the level of 3 million units sold.”

Brazil automotive	November 2024	November 2023	Change	January-November 2024	January-November 2023	Change
Production	236,100	202,700	16.5%	2,359,500	2,153,300	9.6%
Sales	253,500	212,600	19.2%	2,377,500	2,060,100	15.4%
Exports	39,300	24,100	63.4%	366,700	378,200	-3.0%

Anfavea said “the best news” for the sector in 2024 was employment, with 10,000 new jobs created during 2024, while employment creation in the automotive chain as a whole stood at 100,000, the trade group said.

“In total, our sector is responsible for 1.3 million highly qualified jobs, and we hope that the current investment cycle announced of [Brazilian reais] (R) 130 billion [$21.7 billion] will create even more jobs, not only on the assembly line but also in something strategic for the country, which is research and development,” said Leite.

The automotive industry is a major global consumer of petrochemicals, which make up more than one-third of the raw material costs of an average vehicle.

The automotive sector drives demand for chemicals such as polypropylene (PP), along with nylon, polystyrene (PS), styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), polyurethane (PU), methyl methacrylate (MMA) and polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA).