Hurricane Beryl on track to make landfall near US, Mexico border

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl is on track to make landfall on Monday near the border of Mexico and the US on the Gulf Coast, although the path could change in the next few days.

If Beryl holds to its forecasted path, it would spare the major refining and petrochemical hubs in the US and Mexico. In addition, few if any energy companies may choose to shut in US oil and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico.

Major US oil and LNG ports would escape the worst of the storm.

The following map shows the forecasts path of Hurricane Beryl as of midday on Wednesday.

The forecasted path puts Hurricane Beryl between the Mexican petrochemical hub of Altamira, Tamaulipas state and the US hub of Corpus Christi, Texas state.

IF BERYL CHANGES COURSE, IT COULD THREATEN CORPUS CHRISTI
In addition to being a refining and petrochemical hub, Corpus Christi is a major oil-exporting port and hosts a terminal that exports liquefied natural gas (LNG).

Were a storm to disrupt US LNG exports, it would have a knock-on effect on petrochemical prices by shutting down one of the eight LNG export terminals in the country. If the disruption lasted long enough, prices for natural gas would fall.

Lower gas prices would drag down those for ethane, the main feedstock that US crackers use to produce ethylene. Petrochemical producers could benefit from lower feedstock costs.

UPDATE ON HURRICANE BERYL
Hurricane Beryl is the first Category 5 hurricane to form so early in the season. Category 5 hurricanes have the strongest winds under the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with speeds exceeding 157 miles/hour (253 km/hour).

Beryl is near Jamaica and it should weaken as it approaches the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico, where it should make landfall on Friday. It will cross the peninsula, enter the Bay of Campeche and remain north of the Mexican state of Veracruz, which is home to the petrochemical hub of Coatzacoalcos and the Ethylene XXI integrated polyethylene (PE) complex.

It will swing north before making another landfall near Brownsville, Texas state and Matamoros, Tamaulipas state.

BUSY HURRICANE SEASON
Meteorologists have warned that this year’s hurricane season could be the most active ever, with 17-25 named storms. Out of those, 8-13 should be hurricanes and 4-7 should be major hurricanes.

Major hurricanes are Category 3-5 storms with wind speeds of at least 111 miles/hour.