Mosaic sees factors suggesting global potash is balanced while phosphates will remain tight

HOUSTON (ICIS)–US fertilizer producer Mosaic said there are factors which suggest the global potash market is balanced while the phosphate market will remain tight not only for 2024 but beyond.

In its Q2 earnings statement, which had a second quarter net loss of $162 million, the producer said its market outlook is that North American demand remains robust as it sees there are still buyers who continue to seek out and secure summer fill volumes.

It is their view that part of this is a result of farmers and retailers having emptied their bins this spring with substantial crop fertilizing.

Yet challenging weather has been present all summer and there is growing concern from end-users that yields could be impacted with a dip in income likely to result in less post-harvest demand.

Looking at Brazil briefly the producer feels that the level of in-season demand present could be described as solid and comes primarily from concerns of low stocks.

For the global potash segment Mosaic said supply constraints are likely to continue to abate this year amid expectations of seeing higher exports from Belarus and Russia.

It also noted though that the recent contract settlements in China and India should help further stimulate buying activities further in both southeast Asia and into India.

In terms of Chinese phosphate exports the producer said that rate has declined 27% year on year, during the first six months of 2024, which equates to over 1 million tonnes.

Mosaic said in its view the long-term outlook remains favorable as domestic and industrial needs will continue to be prioritized over fertilizer exports in the long term.

Looking at grains and oilseeds it is their expectations that stock-to-use ratios will remain low and constructive agriculture fundamentals and economics are expected to continue to incentivize growers to maximize yields.

Mosaic said while corn and soybean fundamentals as well as prices have softened recently when viewing nutrients, they overall remain affordable and that bodes well for future demand.

It noted that during this year the El Nino weather pattern is expected to shift to a La Nina classification which holds the potential for creating a favorable backdrop in southeast Asia, India and Brazil.