Summary of 2025 Americas Outlook Stories

ICIS Editorial

13-Jan-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the 2025 Americas Outlook stories which ran on ICIS news from 23 December 2024 to 3 January 2025.

Click on a headline to read the full story.

OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm chemicals pessimism persists as downturn could last to 2030
For many players within Latin America petrochemicals, 2025 will only be one more stop on the long downturn journey as, for many, the market’s rebalancing will only take place towards the end of the decade.

OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PE demand could finally improve from Q2 onwards
Latin American polyethylene (PE) demand should start slowly in 2025, but it could take a decisive turn for the better from Q2 onwards.

OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PP supply to remain long amid squeezed margins
Latin America polypropylene (PP) is expected to remain oversupplied in the first half of 2025, with producers’ margins likely to remain squeezed.

OUTLOOK ’25: US economy poised for ‘solid landing’ in 2025, giving chemicals a shot at recovery
For all the talk about a soft landing for the US economy, it’s looking more like a “solid landing” for 2025 with GDP growth higher than 2% for the fifth consecutive year as the labor market remains healthy and consumer spending resilient.

OUTLOOK ’25: US NGL demand to rebound moderately
Though demand for US natural gas liquids (NGLs) is relatively low heading into 2025 due to a general inventory glut, various industry and environmental conditions have feedstocks poised for a moderate demand rebound in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Supply concerns will drive US ethylene market entering new year
Supply concerns will dominate the US ethylene market heading into 2025 as it enters an unusually heavy turnaround season. As many as 10 crackers along the US Gulf Coast are going down for planned maintenance during Q1 and Q2.

OUTLOOK ’25: US BD poised for demand, export growth as production stabilizes, grows
US butadiene (BD) supplies are rebuilding at the start of 2025 as outages which limited production in 2024 are resolved, while both exports and demand are expected to grow in the new year.

OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PE to see both demand extremes between high cost food-grade PCR and low cost PIR
US recycled polyethylene (R-PE) markets continue to see extreme disparity between sustainability-driven and cost-sensitive grades of both post-consumer and post-industrial recycled high-density polyethylene (R-HDPE) and recycled low-density polyethylene (R-LDPE). This is expected to persist into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: US PP navigating mediocre growth and oversupply
US polypropylene (PP) is expected to be relatively less volatile in 2025, following a year where prices changed every month. Higher propylene inventory levels and improved supply expected to stabilize supply/demand dynamics.

OUTLOOK ’25: US ACN demand weakness to continue amid oversupply
The three-year demand decline in US acrylonitrile (ACN) markets may continue well into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: US chem tanker market growth to support favorable rates; container market readies for port labor issues, tariffs
Growth in the US liquid chemical tanker market is likely to support favorable rates in 2025, while the container shipping market could see upward pressure from possible labor strife at US Gulf and East Coast ports and proposed tariffs on Chinese imports.

OUTLOOK ’25: Lackluster US aromatics demand, rising inventories pressure benzene and toluene
After peaking in Q1 2024, benzene prices have declined through the latter half of the year, due to soft derivative demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: US styrene market facing weak demand, overcapacity
The US styrene market enters the new year facing sluggish demand, poor margins, and low operating rates. With a light maintenance season ahead, the market’s fate will be driven largely by derivative demand, which continues to face challenging headwinds.

OUTLOOK ’25: US PS, EPS demand to remain soft
Demand for US polystyrene (PS) is expected to remain soft into the next year with weak downstream markets, polymer recycling regulations and overall expectations of a smaller growth in the economy for 2025 compared with 2024.

OUTLOOK ’25: Ample LatAm PS supply meets poor demand
The Latin American polystyrene (PS) market will continue facing headwinds in 2025 on the back of weak demand across the region combined with plentiful supply.

OUTLOOK ’25: US PET demand expected higher but supply disruptions, tariffs remain risks
Demand for US polyethylene terephthalate (PET) should increase in 2025 if lower inflation and interest rates drive consumption with stronger growth expected in the second half of the year, but the possibilities of a trade war or supply disruption in upstream purified terephthalate acid (PTA) remain concerns.

OUTLOOK ’25: LatAm PET prices pressured by economic challenges, tariff shifts
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) prices in Latin America are expected to soften in H1 2025, driven by changes in import tariffs, lower Asia prices and easing freight rates.

OUTLOOK ’25: US BDO demand to strengthen on lower inflation but EV policy, tariffs may be headwinds
US butanediol (BDO) demand is expected to strengthen in 2025 amid more controlled inflation and lower interest rates, but possible tariffs and changes to electric vehicle (EV) policies could be challenges.

OUTLOOK ’25: US caustic soda trajectory to be impacted by PVC length, tariffs
The US caustic soda market in the latter half of 2024 was shaped by a combination of supply disruptions and shifting demand dynamics on the chlorine side of the molecule.

OUTLOOK ’25: US PVC faces oversupply, export challenges
The US polyvinyl chloride (PVC) market is set to face significant headwinds in 2025, entering the year with abundant inventories, expanded production capacity and constrained export opportunities. The confluence of these factors points to a challenging landscape for producers as they navigate both domestic and international market pressures.

OUTLOOK ’25: Latin America PVC market faces challenges from tariffs and instability in H1
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) prices in Latin America are expected to fluctuate in H1 due to various regional challenges.

OUTLOOK ’25: US soda ash facing subdued demand
US soda ash is facing subdued demand going into 2025 as commercial discussions wrap up.

OUTLOOK ’25: US R-PET expects strong beverage demand amid international risk
Though the build up to 2025 has been tumultuous, the US recycled polyethylene terephthalate (R-PET) market holds both optimism and distrust that the year will keep to its original promise.

OUTLOOK ’25: US nylon demand weak amid manufacturing contraction
Demand declines in US nylon markets which started in Q3 2022 will continue well into H2 2025. Demand was weak in multiple application sectors including automotive, industrial, textiles, electrical and electronics. The only application sectors that performed well were packaging and medical.

OUTLOOK ’25: US phenol/acetone production to remain curtailed on soft demand
US phenol demand will likely remain soft and weigh on acetone supply in H1 2025 as expectations for a rebound are tempered.

OUTLOOK ’25: US MMA anticipating new supply in new year
US methyl methacrylate (MMA) players are trying to gauge supply and demand dynamics amid heightened volatility going into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: US ABS, PC look to remain pressured with weakened markets
Demand for acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) and polycarbonate (PC) are expected to remain stagnant in 2025 compared with 2024 with industries like automotive, household appliances and housing markets not expecting to see increases.

OUTLOOK ’25: US polyurethanes brace for Asia overcapacity and US weak demand
The 2025 outlook for polyurethane (PU) products in the US is marked by the expectation of a very slow economic recovery, constrained feedstock costs, an overcapacity of methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) and polyols built in Asia, possible labor strikes, increases in tariffs and ongoing issues with the Red Sea’s route.

OUTLOOK ’25: US PG, UPR face pressure from propylene; mild optimism for H2 demand boost remains
While recent sharp declines in propylene have led to lower prices for propylene glycol (PG) in Q4 2024, the extent of the drops has been moderated by buyer interest in winter applications.

OUTLOOK ’25: US acetic acid, VAM exports expected stronger, domestic demand could rise
US acetic acid and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) supply heading into 2025 is improving after production outages resolved, while tight global supply is expected to boost export demand and lower inflation may lead to stronger domestic demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: US PA remains sufficiently supplied even with capacity reduction
US phthalic anhydride (PA) supply will tighten in 2025 with the announced exit of a major domestic producer. Supply is expected to be sufficient to meet current demand levels, but any future demand improvement is likely to require support from increased imports.

OUTLOOK ’25: US MA facing muted demand expectations
US maleic anhydride (MA) is facing tempered expectations for a rebound in demand going into 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: US EG/EO demand expected higher in 2025; turnarounds to tighten Q1 supply
Demand for US ethylene glycol (EG) and ethylene oxide (EO) should increase in 2025 on restocking and if lower inflation drives consumption, but this may be met with tight supply in Q1 due to plant maintenance.

OUTLOOK ’25: US IPA to track upstream propylene; MEK focus on Shell’s plant closure
US isopropanol (IPA) supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the first half of 2025 with price movements tracking upstream propylene. Meanwhile, the biggest issue facing the methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) market next year is the decision by Shell to shutter its production facility in the Netherlands in the first half of the year.

OUTLOOK ’25: US melamine to see consequences from US antidumping ruling
The antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) petitions filed by Cornerstone on 14 February 2024 against melamine imports from Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, Qatar, and Trinidad and Tobago led to an investigation from the United States International Trade Commission (US ITC) that is slated to impact the melamine industry at large in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: US President Trump could move quickly on tariffs, deregulation
As US president, Donald Trump could quickly proceed on campaign promises to impose tariffs and cut regulations after taking office on 20 January.

OUTLOOK ’25: US base oils seek to manage new normal amid oversupply, demand deterioration
Oversupply relative to weak base oil demand is likely to persist into a third year — this year with less optimism for significant domestic demand recovery in automotive and headwinds from additional supply entering the global marketplace.

OUTLOOK ’25: Squeezed import margins leave US oleochemicals markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1
Squeezed import margins leave US fatty acids and alcohols markets vulnerable to supply disruptions in H1 against the backdrop of a sharp increase in feedstock costs across the oil palm complex over the last quarter and sustained import logistics bottlenecks in the wider market.

OUTLOOK ’25: US H1 glycerine markets to remain relatively tight amid squeezed biodiesel margins, import bottlenecks
US H1 glycerine markets are expected to remain relatively tight in H1 as anticipated weaker-than-normal soy methyl ester (SME) production in Q1 stemming from pending changes to domestic biodiesel tax incentives against the backdrop of sustained import logistics bottlenecks create short-term supply gaps in kosher crude glycerine supplies.

OUTLOOK ’25: US epoxy resins grappling with duty, logistics, demand issues
US epoxy resins players are trying to formulate a strategy for 2025 in light of duty investigations and guarded sentiment on demand.

OUTLOOK ’25: US oxo-alcohols, acrylates, plasticizers see falling feedstocks, softening demand, as market eyes potential tariffs
Following declines in feedstock prices in the autumn and start of winter, oxo-alcohols, acrylate, and plasticizers continue to face demand headwinds.

OUTLOOK ’25: US etac supply concerns emerge; butac, glycol ethers supply more stable but feedstock costs fall
After relative stability in H1 2024, a sharp drop in feedstock prices of butyl acetate (butac) and some glycol ethers have led to volatility in US spot and contract prices in the latter half of the year. While notable declines in upstream costs have not been seen in ethyl acetate (etac) markets, there are ongoing concerns that proposed tariffs on material produced in Mexico may impact domestic availability in 2025.

OUTLOOK ’25: Brazil ethanol production strong; market watches forex, Combustivel do Futuro, RenovaBio
The Brazilian ethanol market is facing robust domestic production and evolving global energy policies. As Brazil continues to position itself as one of the leaders in renewable energy, initiatives like Combustivel do Futuro and RenovaBio are set to play a crucial role in driving growth.

OUTLOOK ’25: US methanol supply expected tight in Q1, demand may pick up mid-year
US methanol supply is tight heading into the new year, a situation that has been offset by lackluster demand, but demand is expected to pick up farther into 2025 if more controlled inflation and lower interest rates fuel consumer spending and the housing market.

OUTLOOK ’25: Gradual demand recovery anticipated for US TiO2 by H2
North American titanium dioxide (TiO2) demand is anticipated to gradually strengthen by H2 2025, especially if the US Federal Reserve continues to ease monetary policy.

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