Helene becomes hurricane as it heads towards northwestern Florida

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Helene strengthened into a hurricane on Wednesday while maintaining its course to make landfall in a sparsely populated region of northwestern Florida later in the week, meteorologists said.

By the time Helene makes landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, it should be a major hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles/hour, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Based on the current forecast, Helene will not make landfall near Tampa Bay, an important hub for the US fertilizer industry. Tampa hosts corporate offices, trading, product storage, shipping and other logistical operations.

Nonetheless, Helene will disrupt operations at the port of Tampa Bay.

The US Coast Guard set port condition YANKEE, under which gale-force winds could disrupt maritime operations in the next 24 hours.

Railroad company CSX plans to close its TRANSFLO terminals in Tampa and Tampa Port on Thursday.

Railroad company Norfolk Southern said that customers with shipments moving through the southeast and mid-Atlantic should prepare for delays.

If Helene veers farther west, it could threaten Panama City, Florida, where Kraton operates a crude sulphate turpentine refinery and a crude tall oil (CTO) refinery.

Helene’s path is too far east to threaten Pensacola, which is home to some nylon and thermoset resin plants.

Helene is moving on the opposite side of Texas and Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico. Those two states are home to most of the refineries, petrochemical plants and LNG capacity of the US. Operations at those plants will not be threatened by Helene.

FIRMS SHUT IN OIL OUTPUT IN GULF
Despite Helene’s eastern path, oil companies have still shut in production in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following table summarizes the disruptions to US Gulf production that were caused by Helene, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE).

	Total	% of US Gulf
Oil, bbl/day	284,000	16.21%
Gas, million cubic feet/day	208	11.20%

Source: BSEE

	Total	% of US Gulf
Platforms evacuated	4	1.08%
Rigs evacuated	0	0

Source: BSEE

Given Helene’s eastern path, Shell said it is ramping up production at Appomattox to normal levels. Shell has started restoring production at Stones.

On Monday, bp said it had started to shut in production at its Na Kika and Thunder Horse platforms. It is curtailing production its Argos and Atlantis platforms.

THREATS OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS IN SOUTHEASTERN US
Hurricane force winds could extend up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center of Helene, the National Hurricane Center said. Tropical storm force winds could extend up to 275 miles.

The meteorological firm AccuWeather warned that a storm surge of 6-10 feet (1.8-3.0 meters) could threaten the Florida coast, beginning from the north of Tampa Bay to the east of Apalachicola. A storm surge of 10-15 feet is expected just east of the Big Bend region of Florida.

AccuWeather warned that winds of 40-60 miles/hour could extend north across much of the southeastern US as Helene moves north on Friday. Flash floods could strike northeastern Georgia, western North Carolina, eastern Tennessee and southwestern Virginia.

Thumbnail shows forecasted path of Hurricane Helene. Image by the National Hurricane Center.