BLOG: A Different Kind of Downturn: Why This Cycle Won’t Simply “Right Itself”

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson.

The 1992–2021 Chemicals Supercycle was driven by unique conditions—China’s rapid expansion, globalization, and a massive, debt-fueled boom. That era is over. The industry now faces structural shifts that will reshape markets for decades.

What’s different this time?

• Trade wars & protectionism – China’s economic slowdown is driving aggressive exports, leading to record antidumping measures on chemicals and polymers. Will the trend continue?
• Climate change & migration – Gaia Vince’s Nomad Century predicts 1.5 billion climate migrants by 2050. How will this shift global chemicals demand?
• Changing demand patterns – As industries relocate and cities adapt, will traditional GDP-driven demand forecasting still hold?

These aren’t just short-term disruptions—they mark a fundamental shift in global petrochemicals. The companies that understand and adapt will be the ones that thrive.

Waiting for a return to the old normal isn’t a strategy. The industry is changing—stay ahead of it.

Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.