Two storms threaten US Gulf Coast

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Two storms that could become hurricanes are threatening both halves of the US Gulf Coast, home to much of the nation’s petrochemical and refining industry.

One could make landfall south of Houston, a major centre for refining and petrochemical production as well as oil, fuel, gas and natural-gas-liquids (NGL) distribution.

That storm, Tropical Depression No 14, is 255 miles (415 km) southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.

It could strengthen into a tropical storm by Saturday, enter the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday and strengthen into a hurricane by Monday.

The forecast shows it weakening before making landfall south of Houston later next week.

The map below shows the forecast and projected path of the depression.

Source: National Hurricane Center

Tropical storm Laura is threatening the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico.

It is 40 miles east of the island of Antigua.

The forecast shows it entering the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, when it should strengthen into a hurricane. The forecast shows it could make landfall by Wednesday at the southwestern tip of Louisiana as a hurricane.

The map below shows the forecast and projected path of Tropical storm Laura.

Source: National Hurricane Center

The Gulf of Mexico hosts several offshore oil wells, accounting for 17% of the nation’s crude production, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The region is home to more than 45% of its refining capacity and 51% of its natural-gas-processing capacity, the EIA said.

Oil and gas producers typically shut-in wells and evacuate platforms as a precaution against tropical weather. So far, none has done so, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE).

Tropical storms and hurricanes can shut down plants with heavy rains and strong winds.

If the plants suffer no damage, flooded roads, rail lines and ports can prevent employees from showing up to work.

Raw materials could be unable to arrive at the plants, and finished products could be stranded

Plants could shut down because of power outages.

Exceptionally heavy rain can disrupt the supplies of natural gas liquids (NGLs), the predominate feedstock for US crackers.

Midstream companies store NGLs in salt caverns. When they pump NGLs out of the caverns, they displace the material with brine stored in ponds. If the brine gets too diluted, it cannot be used to pump out the NGLs.

Heavy rain could also prevent new NGLs from being pumped into the caverns. Before NGLs can be pumped into the caverns, brine has to be pumped out.

If the ponds are already full from rain, then the brine in the caverns has no place to go.

Additional reporting by Michael Sims