BLOG: Iran’s share of China HDPE, LDPE imports to surge by 2025 on new deal

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson, which discusses the recent Iran-China deal.

Iran could end up with an 85% share of China’s total low density polyethylene (LDPE) imports by 2025, up from 21% last year. Its share of China’s HDPE imports may increase from 15% in 2020 to 48% in 2025.

This could be mainly at the expense of the other biggest exporters to China – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, South Korea and the Russian Federation. But as this potential turnaround in export markets is largely to do with geopolitics, the growing rift between China and the US may result in US exporters losing the most ground.

The potential shift in trade flows is the result of the $400bn Iran/China geopolitical and economic security deal that was signed earlier this month.

Your key takeaway is this: geopolitics has become one of the four big megatrends that will shape the direction of our industry. The other three are the pandemic, sustainability and demographics. Effective analysis  of the four megatrends is a critical success factor.

Editor’s note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.