INSIGHT: After Milton, global chems face future of rapidly intensifying hurricanes

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Warmer waters in the Atlantic Basin could make record-setting hurricanes like Milton and Beryl more common, which strengthened rapidly to become major storms that caused significant damage.

• Most of the petrochemical and refining capacity of the US is along the Gulf of Mexico, making the plants vulnerable to the disruptions caused by more powerful hurricanes that could become more common in the future.
• Rising exports of energy, chemical feedstock and plastics from the US Gulf Coast have caused local hurricanes to have global consequences.
• If wind shear becomes more common, then it could offset some of the strengthening effects that warmer water will have on hurricane development.

RECORD-SETTING HURRICANE SEASON
Warm water is like rocket fuel for tropical storms and hurricanes, and that led to the rapid intensification of Milton, which strengthened from a tropical storm into a Category 5 hurricane in less than two days.

By midday on Monday, the rapid strengthening of Milton placed it among the top three Atlantic hurricanes, behind only 2005’s Hurricane Wilma and 2007’s Hurricane Felix, said Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at the meteorology company AccuWeather.

Milton had set another record as the strongest hurricane to occur in the Gulf of Mexico, according to Levi Silvers, research scientist at the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Colorado State University, which publishes regular hurricane forecasts.

Milton was also the Gulf’s strongest hurricane since Rita in 2005, Silvers said.

Milton would weaken to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall on Wednesday night.

AccuWeather estimates that Milton could cause more than $200 billion in damage and economic loss.

Earlier on July 2, Beryl set its own record by becoming the earliest Category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin, beating the previous record holder by an astounding two weeks, DaSilva said.

According to Silvers, Beryl also accumulated more cyclone energy than any other storm occurring before August. “Basically, it was the strongest early storm we have had by several measures.”

After forming in the Atlantic Beryl weakened after passing over Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula before making landfall in Texas and disrupting operations at several petrochemical plants.

AccuWeather estimated that total damage and economic loss caused by Beryl was $28 billion to $32 billion.

Hurricane Helene set a record for the amount of available atmospheric moisture, also known as precipitable rain, according to AccuWeather. Such extreme amounts of moisture allowed Helene to carry it far inland, leading to rapidly rising river levels and flash flooding.

AccuWeather estimates that Helene caused $225 billion to $250 billion in damage and economic loss in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

WARM WATER THREATS
If the planet continues to warm, one of the consequences would be elevated water temperatures.

Warmer waters contributed to the strength and rapid intensification of these three hurricanes, DaSilva said.

The danger is not just the surface temperature of the Atlantic but also something that meteorologists call ocean heat content, DaSilva said. Ocean heat content reflects water temperatures below the surface.

A warmer planet will also heat up the atmosphere, allowing the air to hold more moisture. That would lead to more rainfall and greater risks of floods.

“I am concerned that we are going to be seeing more episodes of rapid intensification,” DaSilva said. “The tie between sea surface temperatures and rapid intensification – we are pretty confident about that.”

Silvers also expressed concern about the threat posed by elevated water temperatures.

WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNKNOWN VARIABLE
Meteorologists are less sure if wind shear could become more common in a warmer planet, DaSilva said. Wind shear usually discourages the formation of tropical weather.

If wind shear does become more common, it could partially offset the effects of warmer water.

In a world with more wind shear, it might not generate more hurricanes, but those that do form will strengthen rapidly into more powerful storms, DaSilva said.

The length of the Atlantic hurricane season could also expand by starting sooner than the current June 1 date, DaSilva said.

DaSilva doubts that the Atlantic season would last beyond its November 30 end date, because wind shear becomes more common during the final months of the year.

Silvers, though, said it is difficult to determine if the timing of Atlantic storms will change in the future.

“This season is a perfect example, with record breaking storms before and after the peak of the season, but almost nothing during the historical peak,” Silvers said.

MORE DISRUPTIONS FOR US, GLOBAL CHEMICALS
Most of the petrochemical plants and refineries in the US are on the Gulf Coast, so more powerful hurricanes would leave them more vulnerable to damage and shutdowns.

The US now exports significant amounts of polyethylene (PE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) and other chemicals.

Hurricanes disrupt port operations, so those exports could be delayed, increasing the risk of global shortages.

DISRUPTIONS TO WORLD’S CHEMICAL FEEDSTOCKS
In addition, the US is increasingly relying on exports to take away excess ethane and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) produced from its oil fields.

These petrochemical feedstocks are being imported by an increasing number of crackers and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units, with GAIL (India) became the latest to announce plans to build an ethane cracker.

Nearly all of the terminals that handle these exports of ethane and LPG are on the Gulf Coast, and all of the expansion projects are in the region.

Hurricanes could disrupt operations at these terminals and interrupt the supply of these feedstocks to crackers and PDH units throughout the world.

HURRICANES DISRUPT US LNG TERMINALS
The majority of US LNG capacity is on the Gulf Coast and its preponderance will only increase as the country starts up more terminals.

This will have effects on US and global energy prices.

Disruptions in global shipments could raise LNG costs.

In the US, extended shutdowns of LNG terminals would increase supplies of natural gas, pushing prices lower for it and ethane.

Lower ethane prices in the US could increase margins for ethylene derivatives.

DISRUPTIONS TO US OIL EXPORTS
The Gulf Coast is a large exporter of oil, with major terminals in Corpus Christi, Houston and Nederland in Texas.

In addition, the Gulf Coast is home to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP), the only deepwater crude port in the US.

Companies are planning more offshore ports.

Enterprise Products received a deepwater port license for its Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), which could load 2 million bbl/day of crude oil. If built, it would be built 30 nautical miles off the Texas coast.

In 2020, Phillips 66 and Trafigura Group announced that they created a 50/50 joint venture called Bluewater Texas Terminal to develop an offshore deepwater oil port 21 nautical miles east of the port of Corpus Christi.

Energy Transfer is proposing its Blue Marlin Offshore Port, which could load up to one very large crude carrier (VLCC) per day.

Texas GulfLink, a subsidiary of Sentinal Midstream, is developing a deepwater oil terminal off the Gulf Coast.

If built, these offshore oil ports would be vulnerable to hurricanes, along with the onshore terminals on the Gulf Coast.

That could restrict global oil supplies and push prices higher. Higher prices would increase costs for crackers that use naphtha as a feedstock.

Insight article by Al Greenwood

Thumbnail shows damage caused by Hurricane Milton. Image by Chris Urso/Tampa Bay Times/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock