PODCAST: China to add record-breaking chemicals capacity in 2023, global markets wary

BARCELONA (ICIS)–This year, China will complete an unprecedented amount of petrochemical and fertilizer capacity, creating oversupply in some global markets and switching the country from net importer to an exporter in certain commodities.

• 232m tonnes/year of chemical and fertilizer capacity due onstream 2023/4
• Chemicals demand growth will flatten or turn negative
• China GDP growth will stay low, driven by demographics
• China growth driven by massive stimulus, construction bubble bursting
• China switches from net importer to exporter of purified terephthalic acid (PTA)
• Polypropylene (PP) from 67% self-sufficient to 97% in 2022, may become net exporter
• Monoethylene glycol (MEG) moves closer to self-sufficiency
• In 2014 China announced a self-sufficiency strategy for chemicals
• Pandemic delayed impact of new capacities
• US shale-related expansions target exports to China
• Could result in capacity closures in other regions

In this Think Tank podcast, Will Beacham interviews ICIS Insight Editor Nigel Davis, ICIS Senior Consultant Asia John Richardson and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.

Editor’s note: This podcast is an opinion piece. The views expressed are those of the presenter and interviewees, and do not necessarily represent those of ICIS.

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