Major Hurricane Beryl continues trek toward Mexico, US Gulf

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl continued to make its way west toward Mexico and the US Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, with landfall possible some time on Sunday.

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Beryl was about 125 miles (205 km) east southeast of Isla Beata, Dominican Republic, and moving west northwest at 22 miles/hour.

Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC)

The storm is going back and forth between a Category 4 and Category 5 hurricane as maximum sustained winds are at 155 miles/hour but had been at 165 mile/hour earlier in the day.

According to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Winds Scale, a storm reaches Category 5 when maximum sustained winds reach 157 miles/hour.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category	Wind speed
1	74-95 miles/hour
2	96-110 miles/hour
3	111-129 miles/hour
4	130-156 miles/hour
5	157+ miles/hour

The most recent forecast indicates Beryl could miss southern Veracruz state in Mexico, where Braskem Idesa has its integrated polyethylene (PE) Ethylene XXI complex and where a lot of Mexico’s petchem capacity is located.

Altamira is still in the projected path. The regions have been experiencing a drought and rainfall from Beryl could provide the area with much-needed rain but could also impact operations at the multitude of chemical facilities in the area.

Another scenario would be if the storm swings to the north, which could threaten oil and gas production in the US Gulf as well as Gulf Coast petchem operations.

A producer with capacity in the Corpus Christi area said it was still too early to decide on operations.

ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON
The early activity in the Atlantic Ocean is in line with forecasts calling for a busier than usual hurricane season.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting the greatest number of hurricanes in the agency’s history.

NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center said that the hurricane season – which started on 1 June and runs through 30 November – has an 85% chance to be above normal, a 10% chance of being near normal and only a 5% chance of being below normal.

Damage from hurricanes can lead to increased demand for chemicals, but hurricanes and tropical storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation’s plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana.

In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution.

Additional reporting by Mark Milam, Al Greenwood and Melissa Wheeler