NY Fed’s global supply chain tracker rises in June for first time since December

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Supply chain issues that seemed mostly resolved over the past several months showed signs of reemerging in June, according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI).

The GSCPI had been falling steadily since December 2021 with upticks in April and December of last year prior to this month’s uptick, as shown in the following chart.

Despite the uptick, the index remains in negative territory, meaning it is below the standard deviations from its historical average.

The May index was also revised slightly higher, the NY Fed said.

Upward pressure came from backlogs in the UK and Euro area, and delivery times in the US and Taiwan.

Looking at the underlying data, the readings for UK backlogs (the largest contributor to the upward move in the GSCPI this month) are above their historical average for the first time since February.

The GSCPI integrates several commonly used metrics in order to provide a comprehensive summary of potential supply chain disruptions.

Global transportation costs are measured using the Baltic Dry Index and the HARPEX index, and air freight costs indices from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The GSCPI also uses several supply chain-related components from Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) surveys, focusing on manufacturing firms across seven interconnected economies: China, the Euro area, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK and the US.