PODCAST: Industry contends with fundamental shift to global economy

LONDON (ICIS)–Industries, policymakers and households are braced for a tough close to 2023 and a lean 2024, but a substantial demand rebound may be more elusive even than that, with current economic conditions potentially indicating a fundamental shift in the dynamics of the global economy, rather than the low point of a cycle.

• World undergoing a paradigm shift away from rational economic behaviour toward more geopolitically volatile world
• Biggest shift is to demographics, with ageing populations resulting in lower demand growth
• Potential for negative chemicals demand growth in some regions this year, with the question at present being where growth will come from
• No longer a cyclic shift but a fundamental change in how the macroeconomy functions
• China demand growth could be low single digits or negative annually, with the consumption falling in the west and the developing world unable to supplant that lost China demand in the near term
• Steel sector outrunning the chemicals sector in decarbonisation and embedding itself into those new industries
• Value the key consideration, rather than waiting for volume demand to rebound
• Commodity chemicals business to be dominated by the resource-holders

In this Think Tank podcast, chief news correspondent, Tom Brown, interviews ICIS Insight Editor, Nigel Davis; ICIS Senior Consultant Asia, John Richardson; and Paul Hodges, chairman of New Normal Consulting.