‘Extremely active’ 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could mirror 2020, threaten US Gulf chem production

HOUSTON (ICIS)–The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be extremely active, and has similar characteristics to the 2020 season, meaning it could threaten offshore oil and natural gas production in the US Gulf and chemical producers along the Gulf Coast.

Source: Colorado State University (CSU) 

A report late last week from researchers at CSU follows a report released on 27 March by US meteorology firm AccuWeather that also predicted an active hurricane season.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will issue its first seasonal hurricane report in late May.

So far, the CSU team said it is seeing similar characteristics to hurricane seasons in 1998, 2010 and 2020.

The 2020 season saw 30 named storms, of which 13 became hurricanes and six of those were major storms.

Storms in 2020 that impacted chemical operations included:

• Tropical Storm Marco hit Louisiana on 24 August. Days later, Hurricane Laura made landfall as a powerful category 4 storm in Louisiana near the border of Texas.
• Then, Hurricane Sally made landfall on 16 September in Alabama as a category 2 storm, followed by Tropical Storm Beta which made landfall less than a week later in Texas.
• Hurricane Delta followed a similar path as Hurricane Laura, making landfall on 9 October as a category 2 storm in Louisiana. Weeks later, Hurricane Zeta hit Cocodrie, Louisiana, as a category 2 storm.

Hurricane Laura knocked 16% of total US ethylene capacity and 11% of total US propylene capacity offline, according to the ICIS Supply and Demand Database.

About 18% of polyethylene (PE) production was offline, and 26% of polypropylene (PP) production was offline.

Styrene butadiene rubber (SBR), a synthetic rubber used to make tires, had 46% of its US capacity offline.

The CSU team said record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are the primary factor for the active season prediction.

“When waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” researchers said. “These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.”

Warm ocean waters serve as the fuel source for hurricanes, the CSU team said.

“In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere,” they said. “Both conditions favor hurricanes.”

The current El Nino is likely to transition to a La Nina by the peak of the season – from August to October.

Hurricane season begins on 1 June and runs through the end of November.

Hurricanes and tropical storms can disrupt the North American petrochemical industry, because oil and gas production are concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, many of the nation’s refineries and petrochemical plants are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana.

Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas production, because companies must evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution.

Thumbnail image shows a weather satellite orbiting over a hurricane. Photo by John Pulsipher/image from Shutterstock