Category 4 Hurricane Beryl headed toward Mexico, could threaten chem ops along US Gulf Coast

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Hurricane Beryl, already a major Category 4 storm, is making its way toward Mexico, but it remains too early to tell where it will ultimately make landfall.

Beryl is now the earliest Category 4 storm on record in the Atlantic. The previous earliest was Hurricane Dennis on 8 July 2005.

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said as of 1900 GMT Beryl was about 60 miles (100km) west northwest of Carriacou Island with maximum sustained winds of 150 miles/h and moving west-northwest at 20 miles/h.

Source: National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Late-cycle track guidance from the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP) shows the different tracks based on various models in the image below.

Source: Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project (TCGP)

If the storm continues to move to the west, it could threaten Mexican facilities in Veracruz state, which is in the south of the Bay of Campeche.

Also in the region are the major port city of Coatzacoalcos and Braskem Idesa’s integrated polyethylene (PE) Ethylene XXI complex.

Beryl could also make landfall near Altamira, which has been experiencing a drought and could provide the area with much-needed rain but could also impact operations at the multitude of chemical facilities in the area.

Another scenario would be if the storm swings to the north, which could threaten oil and gas production in the US Gulf as well as Gulf Coast petchem operations.

Beryl is expected to pass near Jamaica on Wednesday but the storm is unlikely to affect the chlor-alkali chain.

Jamaica is home to a number of large alumina refineries that consume significant volumes of US caustic soda, used to refine alumina from bauxite, or aluminium ore.

ACTIVE HURRICANE SEASON
The early activity in the Atlantic Ocean is in line with forecasts calling for a busier-than-usual hurricane season.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting the greatest number of hurricanes in the agency’s history.

NOAA forecasters with the Climate Prediction Center said that the hurricane season – which started on 1 June and runs through 30 November – has an 85% chance to be above normal, a 10% chance of being near normal and only a 5% chance of being below normal.

The prediction of 17-25 named storms is the highest ever, topping the 14-23 predicted in 2010.

A storm is named once it has sustained winds of 39 miles/h.

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Category	Wind speed
1	74-95 miles/h
2	96-110 miles/h
3	111-129 miles/h
4	130-156 miles/h
5	157+ miles/h

Damage from hurricanes can lead to increased demand for chemicals, but hurricanes and tropical storms can also disrupt the North American petrochemical industry because many of the nation’s plants and refineries are along the US Gulf Coast in the states of Texas and Louisiana.

In 2022, oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico accounted for about 15% of total US crude oil production and about 2% of total US dry natural gas production, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Even the threat of a major storm can disrupt oil and natural gas supplies because companies often evacuate US Gulf platforms as a precaution.

Additional reporting by Al Greenwood, Kelly Coutu, Bill Bowen