Nutrien said fall fertilizer demand being supported by early harvest, need to replenish soil

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Nutrien said demand in North America for the fall fertilizer application has been supported by a relatively early harvest along with the need to replenish soil nutrients following a period of lower field activity in the third quarter.

In its latest market outlook, the Canadian fertilizer major said favorable growing conditions in the US have supported expectations for record corn and soybean yields and significant soil nutrient removal in 2024.

The company did note that prospective crop margins have declined compared to the historically high levels in recent years, however Nutrien’s view is most growers in the key region of the US Midwest remain in a healthy financial position.

One positive factor that the producer sees is that global grain stocks remain below historical average levels which support export demand for North American crops and firm prices for key agriculture commodities such as rice, sugar and palm oil.

Looking at crop nutrient, Nutrien said it has raised 2024 global potash shipment forecast to 70 million – 72 million tonnes primarily driven by stronger expected demand in Brazil and Southeast Asia.

The company said it believes the increase in global shipments this year has been driven by an underlying increase in consumption in key markets.

The forecast for global potash shipments in 2025 is between 71 million – 74 million tonnes, which Nutrien said supported by the need to replenish soil nutrient levels and the relative affordability of potash.

It does anticipate limited new capacity next year and the potential for incremental supply tightness with demand growth.

Regarding global ammonia the producer said prices have been supported by supply outages, project delays and higher European natural gas values.

For urea Nutrien said that Chinese export restrictions, production challenges from major exporters and strong demand from India and Brazil have tightened the global urea market.

It noted that US nitrogen inventory was estimated to be well below average levels at the end of the third quarter, and the company is expecting it will support demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and early 2025.

For global phosphates, the situation remains tight which is furthered by Chinese export restrictions and production outages in the US.

Nutrien said it anticipates some impact on global demand due to tight supply and weaker affordability relative to potash and nitrogen.